Jump to content
Guest

XRP TA

Recommended Posts

Guest

Hello all, I am a 35 year old professional poker player.  My first (and only) daughter was born 10 months ago and then I was diagnosed with MS 3 months later lol...typical.  I'm hoping the awesomeness that is Ripple will allow me to provide for her even when I'm wobbling and dribbling.

I began to dabble in TA earlier last year and enjoy it as a hobby.  I have made a number of reasonably accurate predictions in the zerpning thread but it moves so quick I can't keep track so here I am.  I already have a BTC thread up and running that I will update soon but this will be my XRP one.  I have made some bold predictions based on fundamentals here at XRPChat including a BTC retrace back to 2-2.5k when it was @18k (no time frame given) and XRP to be $10 by the end of Jan.  I also made a bold TA prediction on 17th December @0.72 that we would hit $2 before new year.

If any pro traders in forex or stocks would like to chime in and point out mistakes or add anything to my future posts then please do because I am all about the learning.

Earlier today @$3.20 I called top and the retrace back to $2.50 which is almost complete.  I also called the sideways action @2.80 after the double hammers which ended up lasting 4 hours.

Below is my best guess for the route xrp/usd will take until 14:00 GMT tomorrow.

Pretty much no matter what the Ichimoku shows I would set my buy order at RSI 30.  I'm expecting that to hit @$2.30-$2.45 before a quick retrace up again.  If the pattern follows the new year consolidation then the price should go sideways for a few days in a very boring fashion in the middle of cloud ranging between $2.65-$3.

The arrow on the left of the price chart shows the previous price action at this phase.  The arrows on the right show the path I expect the (blue) kijun line to take and below that, where I expect the price to go with the purple block showing support.  The arrows at the bottom show where I expect the RSI to go.  I would have set a 50% buy in @ fib 50% retrace and then rest @ RSI 30.

As always any big Ripple announcement blows this all out the water.

Let's see what happens!

Untitled.thumb.png.8da1d2e9b1995b1aa9e59deac0fc46e4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

www.tradingview.com is good for getting a feel for what decent TA folk do.  EXCAVO, btcinvests and Tom Hall are good.  Tom specialises in forex and the other 2 guys are mainly crypto.

3 Books

“Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques” by Steve Nison

“Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” by John Murphy

"Currency Trading for Dummies" by Brian Dolan  <--- Start with this one for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

ca.png.7dc413ea9916a38be77daaaa458c810c.png

I think this is an important candlestick.  If it closes well above the Kijun I'm buying back in for the final 50%, if it stays like a spinning top I wait for the next one, if it drops back below kijun then I'm assuming Kijun is still acting as resistance and we continue to trend down to RSI 30..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brad and Ripple just posted a tweet that may influence the price...check the zerpening thread for the details.

Edited by sjmusic3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
6 hours ago, sjmusic3 said:

Brad and Ripple just posted a tweet that may influence the price...check the zerpening thread for the details.

Yes I saw that just before going to bed.  I don't feel it was official enough to have a massive impact imo, it was more Brad defending Ripple from the FUD-monkeys. 

Looking at the price action from last night I wouldn't have bought in my remaining stack until ~$2.80.  There was a close on Kijun then the next candle moved up strong and through the centre of the upcoming cloud. But yea drama's over and it looks like we'll just being going sideways in a very boring fashion between $2.65-$3 for a while unless we have an announcement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
7 hours ago, BigBeard said:

Thank you for sharing.

 

Can you point me towards what resources you used to develop TA analysis skills?

Oh and @Elitefoo on here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CaligulazBaby said:

Yes I saw that just before going to bed.  I don't feel it was official enough to have a massive impact imo, it was more Brad defending Ripple from the FUD-monkeys. 

Looking at the price action from last night I wouldn't have bought in my remaining stack until ~$2.80.  There was a close on Kijun then the next candle moved up strong and through the centre of the upcoming cloud. But yea drama's over and it looks like we'll just being going sideways in a very boring fashion between $2.65-$3 for a while unless we have an announcement.

Thanks for the reply and especially the commentary regarding your analysis. I find it very interesting !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
46 minutes ago, sjmusic3 said:

Thanks for the reply and especially the commentary regarding your analysis. I find it very interesting !

Thank you kindly.  The price has dropped and looks like it will end up hitting RSI 30 & $2.30-$2.45 after all.  Once the dust settles I'm going to look over the trade for mistakes and anything I could have done better or anything I missed.  I'm still happy with out @3.20 and back in for an average of $2.70 though!  Might actually have to start trading a small % of my HODL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

Really good hammer on the last candle.  If we can get 1 or 2 more trend reversal candles then we can breath a sigh of relief.  Should this next one be a doji, star, hammer....or a massive green candle!...then we should be out of the woods.  It shows the bears are trying and failing repeatedly to push the price down but the bulls are pushing back.  Next couple of hours should be a decent battle.

Untitled.png

EDIT - So weirdly enough we kind of want it to go down to 2.20-2.25 and then recover.

Edited by CaligulazBaby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
4 minutes ago, thisisme said:

TA really doesn't work on XRP except for some few "stable" moment...everybody knows that ...

Well yes but I need to make something up and I'm crap at poetry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

Seems like the down is finally done.  We had a neutral spinning top after the hammer, then another, smaller inverted hammer and now there also seems to be weak bullish divergence on the RSI.

Untitled.thumb.png.e5b3e2e320127b6e1bd49c247d165ddf.png

Edited by CaligulazBaby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CaligulazBaby said:

Seems like the down is finally done.  We had a neutral spinning top after the hammer, then another, smaller inverted hammer and now there also seems to be weak bullish divergence on the RSI.

Untitled.thumb.png.e5b3e2e320127b6e1bd49c247d165ddf.png

Meaning what? Also, thanks for the analysis. I actually think TA works pretty well for XRP, more so than most other crypto. 

What beginner and also intermediate books can you recommend for a TA noob like me? How many hours do you think you've put in to get to where you are, TA-wise? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
1 hour ago, xrp_py said:

Meaning what? Also, thanks for the analysis. I actually think TA works pretty well for XRP, more so than most other crypto. 

What beginner and also intermediate books can you recommend for a TA noob like me? How many hours do you think you've put in to get to where you are, TA-wise? 

Thank you and I agree TA certainly has it's place in trading.  Bullish divergence means it's heading up but it's weak divergence so it's probably not going up fast.  Also right now price movement in general has slowed down, I think the market's just a bit bored.  It was UP UP UP! OMG DOUBLE TOP AND DOWN DOWN BUT THEN UP BUT THEN DOWN ABC CORRECTION!!!!  And now it's like meh nothing's happening and we're pretty much oversold so lets slowly bimble up while yawning.  I don't think it will get interesting again until we breach $3.

I consider myself a beginner too and I think they say 10,000 hours of practice, give or take depending on intelligence, for mastery of anything you wish to master.

EDIT - Sorry I didn't realise you asked how long I have studied it.  Not long enough, don't take my trading advice lol.

3 Books

“Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques” by Steve Nison

“Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” by John Murphy

"Currency Trading for Dummies" by Brian Dolan  <--- Start with this one for sure.

Edited by CaligulazBaby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...