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Owen1

An understanding of XRP price speculation market cap forecast for 2018

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Ok guys, in the world of Ripple and cryptocurrency in general I guess I am a novice or a newbie.  However, I'd like to just make this post as a general, easy to understand chat about its projected value over the coming 12 months of 2018. Please correct me in my outline to tell me if i am correct or not.  This is basically a summing up of what I have heard people say and argue on the internet and social media as to why XRP will boost upwards, I am merely trying to set this all out in one place so that you guys can tell me if it is at all correct as to how 2018 is suppose to develop for XRP.

My simple way of looking at it is thus.....

Let us assume firstly that Ripple keeps growing and that XRP also keeps growing in its usage, actual practical uses in real world, real-time transactions.  Let us assume therefore that investors investing in XRP grows and the price keeps going up.  I know this is a lot of assuming but my discussion really centers around the market cap argument.

Many people say that XRP cannot possibly go up to $1000 in price and that even $100 would be a massive step.  This argument is based on the maths that if you use a circulating supple of 39billion XRP, a price of $100 would give $3.9Trillion. As I am typing this the whole market cap of all cryptocurrency is around $600Billion? So we can see that XRP reaching $100 actually DOES sound a bit crazy in the current climate.  However, the history of Bitcoin tells us that a price of almost $20,000 achieved a few weeks ago would have seemed absolutely crazy 12 months ago, and the market cap 12 months ago was tiny compared to now.  So where does this all leave us?

Firstly, people in general say that there are many many billions of dollars yet to enter the cryptocurrency market, due to it being fairly new.  Analysts all over the web are saying that this could even reach trillions of dollars if financial institutions and pension providers and banks actually start investing in cryptocurrency.  

Secondly, Bitcoin is seen as many as impractical for real time, real-world uses in its current form unless it innovates.  This leaves a gap which XRP seems to have been trying to position itself to fill and could theoretically have a head start almost in this respect come the start of 2018. 

Thirdly, XRP has so far been difficult to purchase and a boost in price will happen as it is added to more exchanges, especially Coinbase.

Fourth, IF (maybe a big IF?) XRP actually starts to be deployed by banks to facilitate cross border transfers of money in real-time then many many banks will stock up on XRP and HOLD it to ensure they have a large supply.  This in turn will actually REDUCE the circulating supply and by the forces of supply and demand this will increase the price to those investors wanting to put money into XRP.  Because of this reduced circulation caused by banks etc stocking up on XRP in order to use it the price of XRP may well shoot up to $100 or more?

 

Does this make sense at all to you good people who understand XRP better than me?

 

Thanks guys and Happy New Year.

Regards

OWEN

 

 

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Yes, I think you've got the general story. There are alot of posters (here and elsewhere) who try to minimize the importance of looking at Market Cap and they are just...wrong. Sure, there are nuances and alternate angles to understand. At the end of the day, though, growth of XRP is directly proportional to the Market Cap - full stop on that fact. 

I believe we can go to $100 and rapidly, but large and meaningful events must precede this price, which you've mentioned (bank adoption, more accessibility, more money coming into crypto, etc.).

I think Ripple's leadership and utility are world-class and I have confidence in their ability to deliver. Everyone is in a state of euphoria right now; this price explosion is amazing. There is much yet to see and be done. 

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14 minutes ago, Skunkape said:

Yes, I think you've got the general story. There are alot of posters (here and elsewhere) who try to minimize the importance of looking at Market Cap and they are just...wrong. Sure, there are nuances and alternate angles to understand. At the end of the day, though, growth of XRP is directly proportional to the Market Cap - full stop on that fact. 

We refute MC as being an indicator , or even put a cap on, how high the price could go. For comparising coins its usefull. And sure growth of XRP is proportional to MC as the formula of MC is last price multiplied by number of coins, by definition, so that statement adds nothing.

But take a look at the 101 threads about MC and feel free to continue, I’m about to drink alot on the new MC of XRP and 2018. 

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1 hour ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

We refute MC as being an indicator , or even put a cap on, how high the price could go. For comparising coins its usefull. And sure growth of XRP is proportional to MC as the formula of MC is last price multiplied by number of coins, by definition, so that statement adds nothing.

But take a look at the 101 threads about MC and feel free to continue, I’m about to drink alot on the new MC of XRP and 2018. 

I never put a cap on how high it could go.

What is obvious to you may not be to other new comers (i.e. this poster is a self-described newbie).

The thread you're touting has dissenters who are saying the same thing as me - see Regal Chicken, page 1.

Drink away, I want the MC to become ridiculously high as well. Same team, buddy.

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10 hours ago, Owen1 said:

Fourth, IF (maybe a big IF?) XRP actually starts to be deployed by banks to facilitate cross border transfers of money in real-time then many many banks will stock up on XRP and HOLD it to ensure they have a large supply

This is where the entire crypto market cap exponentially increases at an even higher pace, hopefully led by xrp's increasing market share.

It shall be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next 1-2 yrs.

happy new year!

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Your issue is trickier than it appears.

Market cap is divisive, because of the assumption its some kind of a cap meaning maximum. Cap here stands for capitalization, however since Ripple is trying to make XRP a bridge "currency" cap is more like capacity to handle transactions, right now every XRP in circulation could only transfer $79B and thats if you fixed the price on both the accumulation and disposition of the XRPs.

If XRP is fully embraced and utilized as a currency, then "market cap" is useless by and large. Why? Because that is not how we measure currency. Currency is used in transactions as a medium of exchange, and while it can be held as an asset in and of itself it represents a fuzzier value. Market cap like for Apple means that you can see what 1 share is being valued at by the market, and all the outstanding equity is worth X.

What is the value of all the outstanding Euros? Both physical and electronic? Not exactly a useful question. You could take the number and turn it into USD, but what did you learn? Currency is measured as money supply, the US Fed only tracks M1 and M2 (you can look those up yourself).

Right now, as XRP is primarily driven by speculators, market cap is somewhat useful, however this is a matter of perspective. The max market cap is technically unlimited. The market caps of our biggest companies today, would have been considered insane just 30 years ago. And this is the same metric over time in the same market. Now you are trying to apply a market cap metric to crypto-currency which is ostensibly a new asset. Is it exactly like stocks? Why? Is it an alternative asset? Some alternative asset funds hold actual timberland. What is the market cap of lumber? Is that a useful measure? If you have more lumber does that add to the market cap or does the price per unit go down? That depends on demand.

Are you confused? Good.

The answer is that market cap may be useful, and it may be crap. No one knows for sure. I use it as a measure of the wealth locked in XRP. If it grows too much too fast right now while it is more speculative than utilitarian, I'd expect a bit of a shakeout. Just remember that if all the current people holding XRP 100% do not sell. Except for 1 guy who has 100 XRP. He can sell 1 at a time to buyers and manipulate the whole market cap. Not saying that makes market cap wrong. Market cap plus high volumes offer lots of hints about the strength of the present, and trends into the future. These are fuzzier conclusions. I can't put them into good words to help you out, nor would I want to. Keep watching, keep learning, keep remembering. You'll get a feel for it. A lot of us did. I'm still new to Crypto and XRP, but I did forex for a year, and you do get a feel for it.

 

Someone please tell me all that made sense in a way. I have this massive headache and I don't know if I just spewed a bunch of nonsense and word salad.

Edited by Iconoclast

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On 1/1/2018 at 2:36 AM, Iconoclast said:

Your issue is trickier than it appears.

Market cap is divisive, because of the assumption its some kind of a cap meaning maximum. Cap here stands for capitalization, however since Ripple is trying to make XRP a bridge "currency" cap is more like capacity to handle transactions, right now every XRP in circulation could only transfer $79B and thats if you fixed the price on both the accumulation and disposition of the XRPs.

If XRP is fully embraced and utilized as a currency, then "market cap" is useless by and large. Why? Because that is not how we measure currency. Currency is used in transactions as a medium of exchange, and while it can be held as an asset in and of itself it represents a fuzzier value. Market cap like for Apple means that you can see what 1 share is being valued at by the market, and all the outstanding equity is worth X.

What is the value of all the outstanding Euros? Both physical and electronic? Not exactly a useful question. You could take the number and turn it into USD, but what did you learn? Currency is measured as money supply, the US Fed only tracks M1 and M2 (you can look those up yourself).

Right now, as XRP is primarily driven by speculators, market cap is somewhat useful, however this is a matter of perspective. The max market cap is technically unlimited. The market caps of our biggest companies today, would have been considered insane just 30 years ago. And this is the same metric over time in the same market. Now you are trying to apply a market cap metric to crypto-currency which is ostensibly a new asset. Is it exactly like stocks? Why? Is it an alternative asset? Some alternative asset funds hold actual timberland. What is the market cap of lumber? Is that a useful measure? If you have more lumber does that add to the market cap or does the price per unit go down? That depends on demand.

Are you confused? Good.

The answer is that market cap may be useful, and it may be crap. No one knows for sure. I use it as a measure of the wealth locked in XRP. If it grows too much too fast right now while it is more speculative than utilitarian, I'd expect a bit of a shakeout. Just remember that if all the current people holding XRP 100% do not sell. Except for 1 guy who has 100 XRP. He can sell 1 at a time to buyers and manipulate the whole market cap. Not saying that makes market cap wrong. Market cap plus high volumes offer lots of hints about the strength of the present, and trends into the future. These are fuzzier conclusions. I can't put them into good words to help you out, nor would I want to. Keep watching, keep learning, keep remembering. You'll get a feel for it. A lot of us did. I'm still new to Crypto and XRP, but I did forex for a year, and you do get a feel for it.

 

Someone please tell me all that made sense in a way. I have this massive headache and I don't know if I just spewed a bunch of nonsense and word salad.

Thank you for this - very informative!

I can definitely see it reaching $10 this year... and probably in a few months, if ONE of the many events that could happen actually does happen - e.g. Coinbase adding XRP. 

I can also see it reaching $100 sometime IF it gets mass adoption and usage by banks and/or if big players like Amazon make some sort of announcement.

The goal of reaching $1,000 though at the moment seems slightly beyond "the moon" - lol.  It would be a massive market cap. but to be honest nobody really knows.  Bitcoin reaching $19,000 seemed crazy.  So if XRP gets adopted by banks and institutions and Exchanges add it and players like Amazon accept it as payment then of course it would probably add insane value to it and would reach the thousands in value.

Glad to have your answer to read this morning.  Thanks.  ......

.......... what is on my mind now is all these FUD reports that the Ripple networks are desired by banks etc but that XRP is NOT desired by them or necessary for them to make use of Ripple net?  Is this true? I have had some technical answers to this on social media but they are too technical for me to understand seeing as I have not seen Ripple networks and XRP in action.  The arguments I have received sound basically like "the banks will use ripple net and XRP as both go hand in hand and simplify processes for the banks".  That doesn't really answer me why.  There is a video on social media from Youtube used by the FUD squad from October or November last year (it may even be an official Ripple video) which has bankers discussing Ripple but they agree that they have no interest in XRP.

So is there any merit to the FUD or is XRP really GOING to be used by the banks?

 

Thanks guys

Owen

 

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On 12/31/2017 at 11:52 PM, Excerpts said:

This is where the entire crypto market cap exponentially increases at an even higher pace, hopefully led by xrp's increasing market share.

It shall be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next 1-2 yrs.

happy new year!

The FUD squad assert that banks all agree that ripple networks are desirable but XRP is not something they are interested in.  Is this true?

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On 12/31/2017 at 4:03 PM, Skunkape said:

I never put a cap on how high it could go.

What is obvious to you may not be to other new comers (i.e. this poster is a self-described newbie).

The thread you're touting has dissenters who are saying the same thing as me - see Regal Chicken, page 1.

Drink away, I want the MC to become ridiculously high as well. Same team, buddy.

Thanks for your reply.  My concern now is the FUD squad spreading the story that the banks want the ripple network but not XRP.  Is this correct?

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On 12/31/2017 at 2:49 PM, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

We refute MC as being an indicator , or even put a cap on, how high the price could go. For comparising coins its usefull. And sure growth of XRP is proportional to MC as the formula of MC is last price multiplied by number of coins, by definition, so that statement adds nothing.

But take a look at the 101 threads about MC and feel free to continue, I’m about to drink alot on the new MC of XRP and 2018. 

Thanks for replying.  The FUD squad say that banks have no interest in XRP only in the Ripple networks... is this correct?

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It’s correct that there ‘s many FUD about this point, the FUD in itself  is incorrect. SBI and Cuallix are already running trials with XRP and its a matter of time that others banks and FI’s follow. Without XRP 30% cost savings, with XRP 60%. But to be fair: real usage has yet to happen...

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4 minutes ago, Ripple-Stiltskin said:

It’s correct that there ‘s many FUD about this point, the FUD in itself  is incorrect. SBI and Cuallix are already running trials with XRP and its a matter of time that others banks and FI’s follow. Without XRP 30% cost savings, with XRP 60%. But to be fair: real usage has yet to happen...

Yes I have heard that many trials are going on but no real actual adoption for proper usage as of yet?  What the FUD squad seem to be saying though is that they are testing other Ripple networks and not XRP.  Is this correct?  Also they state that they may use Ripple but have no intention of using XRP?  That banks would never need a cryptocurrency for their uses?  Is this correct. ...... I wish Banks would make a statement officially regarding this - lol.

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4 hours ago, Owen1 said:

Thanks for your reply.  My concern now is the FUD squad spreading the story that the banks want the ripple network but not XRP.  Is this correct?

No, its not and that’s an old recycled claim. Read @JoelKatz posts and this will become clear.

There have been naysayers and this will continue. The bull is loose, now, though.

The latest FUD I saw circulating on Twitter is XRP can be frozen. Also not true and refuted by Ripple.

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