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BTC looks like head and shoulders on 4h


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Hi guys, looks like a head and shoulders formation on BTC. This is my first pop at a BTC price prediction using TA!

If the price bounces off 16-17.5k to form 2nd shoulder then drops below the neckline @11k then the price should fall to at least 3.5k.


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2nd shoulder has formed, this will be interesting!  With XRP looking bullish and BTC potentially going full bear in a market where altcoins have followed BTC for years!  Could this be the start of the flippening!?!?!?.....probably not.


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2nd shoulder has fully formed and it's the moment of truth.  RSI is about to hit oversold, if BTC drops below 11k I would guess it will drop to 10k (psychological support) then bounce back up to 11k (strong resistance) then drop like a lead balloon.  3.5k minimum but a 90% market drop down to 2k is possible!

Or it could bounce back up nullifying the H&S entirely.  I would short @9.5k to 3.5k with stop loss @10.5k.


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This is going to be quite a long post, I've had a look at BTC on multiple time frames and it's quite interesting!

It seems the market can't make up it's mind whether to break or bounce off the neckline but quite unbelievably...another head and shoulders and formed inside the old head and shoulders like Inception!!!!!  I have highlighted it as best I can here.


Next I would like to talk about "divergence".  Put simply, if the RSI (purple line at the bottom) is bullish when the price is bearish it's called bullish divergence and is a sign the price is about to move with the RSI.  Bearish divergence is the opposite and is highlighted below on the daily chart.  BTC high 20k with the price going up where the RSI moved down, what followed was the price going with RSI and dropping 9k!


Which brings me onto my final point.  Yesterday I thought the market was about to deny the head and shoulders because the hourly chart showed bullish divergence.


But look at the rally which followed.  RSI has risen from 20 to 55 but the price has barely moved up.

A head and shoulders inside a head and shoulders followed by a super weak bull run in the midst of what needed to be a strong bull run.  If you're not a TA person then that's all good because you're agreeing with me on the fundamentals too!!  XRP is about to take the number one spot and when new money finds out why....they will not touch bitcoin imo.

Putting all this together I really think BTC is about to collapse in the next 48 hours if that price drops below 11k.

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6 hours ago, bayarea510 said:

Excellent thread. Thanks for the informative posts and insight. Let's see what happens!! 

Very kind of you to say.  I think the inception head and shoulders have been denied by the market but I'm still bearish.  Also I think people have started using ETH for their XRP purchases now means less volume going through BTC.  I would still short @9.5k down to $3.5 but let's wait and see what the market decides to do!


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Head and shoulders Inception was denied!!  I think if XRP had been added to Coinbase, and combining that with the chart would have initiated a 90% loss in market cap but I guess we'll never know. 

ATM there's resistance @17.5-18k and it's gone into oversold on the 4 hourly so it's probably going back down for a bit but this is an area of TA I'm not well versed in...the Elliott wave stuff.  If I ever did trade, my style would be long term hodler in a strong bull/bear market, trying to catch dips/peaks. The day trading thing isn't for me.  If the price breaches $20k or starts moving quickly back down to ~13k then I'm interested again.


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4 minutes ago, bayarea510 said:

Thanks for another great update!

Question- Does the price we're paying for btc/eth effect purchase of Ripple? Like how much ripple we are able to buy? It's kind of a confusing question but I think you'll understand.

I think the term you're looking for is "slippage" and yes it does affect the eventual amount of XRP you can buy, especially given how painfully slow bitcoin is.  Banks and business are at the mercy of slippage when using international remittance which ironically enough is one of the attractive features of switching from SWIFT to Ripplenet.

Edited by CaligulazBaby
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If you don't want to be at the mercy of slippage then you want to use the crypto which settles in the quickest time which I think is ETH...alternatively you could try to call bottom on a BTC bear run lol.  At least if you're kept waiting 24 hours for clearance it will have more likely risen than fallen.

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