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zerper

What I See Right Now...

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Hello all. I've been lurking this forum since the beginning of the year, registered this account back in June but haven't actually used it until now. Would just like to share some of my thoughts on XRP and the crypto market as a whole. Note I do not claim to be an expert investor in any way. 

Firstly, I think we're in a mania phase. The rise we're seeing in Bitcoin IMO is unsustainable. I liken in to the .com bubble. Business insider released an article the other day which pointed out that although the overall "market cap" of the crypto world is much smaller than the tech bubble, the ROI's have been substantially higher. And for what? Bitcoin is slow, unscalable, has exorbitant fees and hardly any utility. It's too complicated for the average user/investor, yet it's price continues to soar. The only real use I've seen for Bitcoin is convincing the next guy that it's worth more than you paid for it. 

On to XRP: There is an actual, explicit use case. It has a real, tangible business behind it with 200 employees. It has worked with the (monetary) system that we all participate in and understand. It has partnerships with some of the most recognizable names in the financial sector. This is just a few of the things XRP has going for it and without delving into others we can already point out that there is NO other crypto that can make these claims. 

I know it can be disheartening to watch other cryptos "moon" while XRP appears stagnant and I'd be lying if I said I haven't felt some disappointment or even envy myself. But all I need to do is remind myself of the aforementioned facts. I think the crypto world as a whole is going to be in for a big shock in short order as this unprecedented growth does a complete reversal. But I also understand that ~60% of XRP is traded in fiat, which means XRP is less susceptible to BTC price movements and more likely to hold it's ground/recover from the impending crash. 

Short and sweet of it: I firmly believe we've bet on the right horse.

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Funny this. I agree BTC growth at this rate has to be unsustainable. But people have been saying that for a a couple of years now. So who's to say the BTC price rally isn't in its infancy and this will go on until 50k before any major correction?

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I dont know that there really is any way to predict when the bubble will burst. If we could, wed all be wealthy. THere is also no telling that BTC wont survive the correction. 
But I WILL say that with the Tx times and fees that it seems unsustainable for a large user base that its actually using the product. IF that user base were to shrink (Fewer people bought up ALl the BTC) or someother strange use case, that might 'save' it. 

Other than that, Id say we're in the euphoria stage right now
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp

And there is really no telling how long it will last....I WILL say that Bitcoin cant keep posting the kind of percentage gains that it has. It requires too much investment, and is arguably priced out of the range of the smaller investor to make too much money (again, as a percentage) that is going to make other coins more attractive. 

There are already grumblings about anarchist rhetoric and impratical ideology as well as regulatory concerns and illegal activity as well as a specious use case.

But still in evey endeavor, there must be a trail blazer. BTC is doing that for consumer Crypto. 

For us in the XRP market, its interesting, and what happens to BTC affects us, especially since I thnk we are largely a 'hedge' against BTC market corrections, an 'altcoin' just in case. 

If Ripple is successful in sticking to their use case and purpose, it will soon be clear that BTC and XRP are not competitors and the market will see the value of XRP. More importantly, the FIs will see its value and utility. More importantly still, the price paths of each will begin to decouple from each other well before the correction. 

At any rate, dont worry so much aout it and dont hope for Shaden-coin (the idea that XRP will profit from BTC failure). Let those other coins be their own thing and stick to XRPs vision and value.

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59 minutes ago, zerper said:

Bitcoin is slow, unscalable, has exorbitant fees and hardly any utility. It's too complicated for the average user/investor, yet it's price continues to soar. The only real use I've seen for Bitcoin is convincing the next guy that it's worth more than you paid for it. 

Currently, people don't care about technical limitations. For people to invest in it, they don't care if it takes hours or whatever. Even sending their money to the exchange probably takes longer. Once they have the Bitcoin, they just put it aside. They aren't gonna use Bitcoin so it doesn't need any good technical specs.

A lot of things are hard to do for most people. Yet the world evolves. People learn to use new things and they adapt. With crypto, people do a lot more costly mistakes, but they learn.

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My two cents... I generally agree there will be a substantial correction, but I think what is really happening is that bitcoin is simply the gateway for this new investment vehicle. How many people even understand crypto beyond bitcoin at this point?  Huge money is funneling in through bitcoin, but as people learn more about the space, this ‘bubble’ of funds parked in bitcoin will dissipate into better cryptos.  This the most logical outcome and only high quality cryptos will benefit from this effect after the bubble bursts.  Sure, some funds will permanently exit the space, but much more will stay and move to better coins.  

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1 hour ago, XRPledger said:

My two cents... I generally agree there will be a substantial correction, but I think what is really happening is that bitcoin is simply the gateway for this new investment vehicle. How many people even understand crypto beyond bitcoin at this point?  Huge money is funneling in through bitcoin, but as people learn more about the space, this ‘bubble’ of funds parked in bitcoin will dissipate into better cryptos.  This the most logical outcome and only high quality cryptos will benefit from this effect after the bubble bursts.  Sure, some funds will permanently exit the space, but much more will stay and move to better coins.  

The thing is most of the money don't really care about cryptos or anything like that - the average Joe has heard on the TV or read in the newspaper that BTC guarantees huge gains and he goes to Coinbase and just buys BTC, end of story. If altcoins don't offer some utility that will guarantee demand - they won't ever catch BTC. At some point there will be a massive correction and most of new money will run scared from this market - but I think alts will take the big hit again.

 

// Edit - and there goes the myth that when BTC starts to correct XRP won't take a hit :)

Edited by iLeeT

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