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Total # of XRP decreasing?


Sancho

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3 minutes ago, Sancho said:

Okay, although total is in billions, isn't 5,5 million a lot if we take in account XRP is actually still not being used like intended?

What does this mean if banks and even consumers start using it?  

Just to give you some mathematical perspective here. 

We could lose 5.5 million XRP PER DAY and still not run out for about 50 years. 

Someone did the math somewhere at one point and it was in the thousands of years that XRP had a lifespan based on destruction of the asset. 

 

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28 minutes ago, FNS said:

by the end of 2017 ... 55 billion will go out of circulation, further increasing the value of the currency

That amount already is and has been effectively out of circulation. Any effect on price will be due to speculation.

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31 minutes ago, xrpaware said:

Question --- is the rate of XRP destruction hard wired -- or can it be adjusted as a variable in the Ripple network?  If so, that would certainly slow down the rate of destruction of XRP as well. 

It can be adjusted.

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1 hour ago, rainbowhunter said:

would and adjustment in the burn rate not also reduce the value/price per XRP

 

The amount that is burned is small enough that it shouldn't have any noticeable effect. Ten years down the line there might be a small amount of appreciation attributable to burning, but it's taken four years to burn 5 million of a total 100 billion, or half of one percent of the total, at this rate.

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On 9/27/2017 at 10:22 PM, mrongey said:

The amount that is burned is small enough that it shouldn't have any noticeable effect. Ten years down the line there might be a small amount of appreciation attributable to burning, but it's taken four years to burn 5 million of a total 100 billion, or half of one percent of the total, at this rate.

You're wrong and I can prove it with numbers :

A recent blog entry was made recently by Hodor which takes a look at the numbers behind XRP and Ripple. Although I recommend everyone to read the whole article, the only information we need from there to calculate the average yearly rate of XRP destruction is the "Latest Network Load-Adjusted Cost" which is 1000 drops or 0.001 XRP. Please keep in mind that this is not a constant value, and is guaranteed to increase once the number of simultaneous transactions increases. 

Now, we need to identify the number of transactions performed by banks globally each year. To achieve this, I used the World Payments Report 2017 (this is the infographic, but you can find the full report on the Capgemini website). The estimated total number of transactions between financial institutions for 2017 is 433.1 billion. 

Now to perform the calculation : Since we estimate that both transaction fees as well as Ripple implementation/adoption by the banking institutions will increase over a period of 10 years, we will use the Average Increase formula to determine the average increase of:

1. Transaction fees - starting from the actual fee of 0.001 to a future fee of 0.02 XRP per transaction (the upper limit value is just speculation on my part. It's impossible to know this value in advance). Calculation 0.2-0.001/0.001/10*100 = 190%, but we will consider a lower average increase of 100%.

2. Ripple implementation/adoption by financial institutions - I will calculate this adoption based on the monthly number of transactions from the Ripple XRP Charts * 12, which is 2.355.546 *12 = 28.266.552 transactions yearly (I have no other data to calculate an average). Average increase will be 433.1B-28M/28M/10*100 = 154669% (very high, very optimistic, I know...)

This means:

2018: 43.3M transactions at 0.002 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 86.6M XRP - 0.09% of total XRP of 100B

2019: 86.6M transactions at 0.004 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 346.6M XRP - 0.35% of total XRP of 100B

2020: 130M transactions at 0.006 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 780M XRP - 0.78% of total XRP of 100B

2021: 173.3 transactions at 0.08 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 1.39B XRP - 1.39% of total XRP of 100B

2022: 216.6M transactions at 0.010 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 2.16B XRP - 2.17% of total XRP of 100B

2023: 260M transactions at 0.012 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 3.12B XRP - 3.12% of total XRP of 100B

2024: 303.3M transactions at 0.014 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 4.24B XRP - 4.25% of total XRP of 100B

2025: 346.7M transactions at 0.016XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 5.55B XRP - 5.55% of total XRP of 100B

2026: 390M transactions at 0.018 XRP/transaction - XRP destroyed: 7.02B XRP - 7.02% of total XRP of 100B

2027: 433.1M transactions at 0.02 XRP/transaction (probably more, because the number of transactions is constantly growing each year) - XRP destroyed: 8.66B XRP - 8.66% ox total XRP of 100B

TOTAL XRP destroyed over 10 years based on these variables (considering XRP will be fully adopted globally by all financial institutions by 2027): 33.36B XRP, a third of all existing XRP.

The destruction rate of XRP for 2018-2020 is probably not realistic at all, because I personally don't think a lot of banks will actually implement Ripple this soon, and if they do, I think in the first few years they will use the platform but not use XRP, but instead create their own tokens to experiment with the platform and see how it handles transactions (again, this is just speculation on my part).

Also, it is possible for Ripple (the company) to intervene and lower the cost of transactions manually, in order to avoid the rapid consumption of XRP over the next decade. It remains to be seen.

Hope this helps prove that you are wrong :)

EDIT : Also, I'm new to the forum. I like numbers and finance. Consider this my introduction. Hello !

Edited by TheAuditor
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6 minutes ago, TheAuditor said:

The destruction rate of XRP for 2018-2020 is probably not realistic at all, because I personally don't think a lot of banks will actually implement Ripple this soon, and if they do, I think in the first few years they will use the platform but not use XRP, but instead create their own tokens to experiment with the platform and see how it handles transactions (again, this is just speculation on my part)

As Brad G said....”Some of our customers are already in the early stages of using xRapid, Ripple’s XRP liquidity solution” 

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