Search the Community

https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/09/10/underdog-story-why-xrp-could-soon-outperform-bitcoin-and-ethereum/ This piece by Tony Spilotro is exclusively about the TA take on the last few years. I've always been skeptical that TA can be that accurate in "thinly traded markets," such as precious metals and crypto currencies. I continue to believe in the soundness of the XRPL implementation, and the strategic efforts of Ripple and other stakeholders in pursing foundation building over hype (unlike, say Justin Sun). We here know the reasons we believe in this DA's future But it is interesting to see what Tony has to say on the TA side, as such things will affect those speculators influenced by such perspectives.

Seeing there are a number of people in here interested in how to use charts to their benefit, I figure I'd make a Topic on charts specifically for XRP.. First rule: Charts do not decide the price of XRP. Don't think that by drawing an arrow pointing upward, that the price is going to follow your opinion. That's my first complaint with TA. Sites such as Tradingview.com has hundreds of users plotting fancy charts like the one below in which the users constantly 'conclude' that the price is going to go up (blue arrows). This is NOT the purpose of technical analysis. TA's main purpose is to convince yourself to hold while your investment price is dropping. This concept is rarely mentioned in TA websites. Second rule: When drawing a chart, don't draw what you WANT to see. Draw what is there and then interpret it to the best of your ability. Third rule: TA is extremely powerful and accurate once you learn how to use it. Someone once said, the reason so many people dont like TA is because they dont understand it. Very true. Fourth rule: Keep the chart as simple as possible (refer to Rule #1) Fifth rule: You will not always be correct. Although chart analysis can assist in your investment decisions, TA is not 100% accurate (just like everything else in life). Do not plot a chart, draw some lines, sell your house, and put it all on XRP because you think the chart is going to make you a million dollars. This is not the purpose of TA. Sixth rule: DO NOT INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.

For those of you interested in TA, I have always found the Ichimoku cloud to work very well for cryptos. If we can break through the cloud convincingly, I would be inclined to say the bear cycle is over and we enter into an equilibrium / consolidation pattern for a few months, or just go full bulltard mode. Here is what I am looking at on the daily time frame. Zoomed in:

Hello, I really want to start understanding graphs, candles, volumes etc. I'm looking at www.tradingview.com, but I'm having trouble understanding what I'm seeing. Could anyone please point me to a good newbie video on youtube, describing TA? I'd search for it myself, but if anyone here has come across a really nice beginner explanation (video) of TA, I'd appreciate it if you shared! Thank you!

Soon total sideways movement:

So far on this board there's been threads covering deep state research, Chaos theory, in depth trend analysis and quantum physics with a resulting math(s) fight. All incredibly valuable and insightful. So why not add the metaphysical (I am a prosperity Mandala after all). The Dream: Last night was a deep meditation night, primarily meditating on future opportunities and paths. In the early morning hours some very vivid and lucid dreams started up, the first involved standing upon a mountain, those at the very top came crashing down. The vehicles they were traveling in were now a little bit below me and the eldest of the group appeared deceased but was revived. Looking up the eye of Horus revealed itself clearing through the clouds, high in the sky upon a crystal clear blue canvas and focused on me. This dream was immediately followed by a travel dream in which I boarded a very large plane full of passengers. The plane took off and flew for a little bit then landed. At this landing point people hesitated to get off but then started leaving in droves, eventually I was one of the few still left on the plane. Asking the attendant what was up, why weren't we flying anymore, the response came that a short layover was needed because the next leg of the journey would be long and at great altitude. The attendant then upgraded my seat. End dream: Read into it what you will...... Edits: corrected spelling and added some dream fragments that came back to me.

Just wanted to share some philosophy on price movements for those new to crypto, investing or TA, and who may be spooked by the recent drop. This will be a somewhat lengthy read, but hopefully one that is worth your time. It seems that many are expecting the price appreciation to be linear or exponential, however this is never the case. Price movement is always fractal in nature, meaning that it resembles a wave pattern. For those with coding experience, another way to state this is that price movement is a result of a recursive equation that operates on the output of its previous execution. As this may come across as cryptic nonsense to most people, here is a simpler scenario that explains how this mechanism works. Assume there are David and Mary. David will take whatever you give him and use it to build a 10x10 letter “D”. Mary will likewise take whatever you give to her and build a 10x10 letter “M”. David therefore only knows how to build “D” and Mary only knows how to build “M”. Give them both a bunch of 1x1 Lego blocks. Pretty soon David and Mary are both done going through their stacks of blocks, with David creating a sequence of “D”s and Mary creating a sequence of “M”s. You collect their creations, shuffle them up, put them in a pile, split the pile in two, and give a David and Mary each half of the pile. The building blocks that David and Mary are now operating on are no longer simple 1x1 Lego blocks, but rather pre-assembled little “M”s and “D”s. David and Mary again do the only thing they know how to do, and assemble the ingredients into larger 10x10 blocks of “M”s and “D”s. The end result is a fractal. Each 100x100 structure looks like either an “M” or a “D”, however each one is made of smaller 10x10 structures that could in themselves be “M”s or “D”s. If the process were to be repeated, the next round would create 1000x1000 M/D blocks composed of 100x100 M/D blocks which would be composed of 10/10 M/D blocks. A fractal is therefore a pattern created by some constant behavior acting upon its own result. Aside from producing pretty graphics, fractals are commonly observed in nature presumably for the same reason outlined above; same underlying behavior given a different input produces a similar pattern at any level of evaluation. Anyway – how does this apply to price movements? Using the example above, Mary and David are you and I and all other investors, and historical price movement is the Lego block. Regardless of how much you may believe to be different than me, and I may believe to be different than the other guy, we are all people and as such are all subject to exact same emotions and similar mental decisioning processes. At the end of the day, we will all produce either a “D” or an “M” simply by virtue of being a human. Next, let’s take this one step further. Assume that David and Mary do not build blocks at the same speed. Sometimes Mary is faster, and other times David is faster. Your job is to work through the pile of blocks as quickly as possible, so after each round instead of splitting the pile in half, you will give more blocks to either Mary or David depending on which one is faster with clearing their own pile so that both may finish going through their own stacks at about the same time. This will maximize the speed with which you are clearing the blocks, but the effect will be that on some days there will be more “D”s generated, and on other days there will be more “M”s. Perhaps Mary is generally faster than David, but after kicking butt for three days straight she is now tired and is dragging ***. David will now be the top producer for a day or two while Mary recovers. Maybe Mary has been kicking as for so long that now that she is at the point of complete burnout and it will take her a couple of months to recover and catch up to David who is now well rested. Perhaps Mary also works faster when it is sunny outside as she feels energized, whereas David works better when it is cloudy as he is able to concentrate better. Keeping this example in mind, assume that “M” here corresponds to an upwards price movement, whereas “D” corresponds to a downwards price movement. Open your charts and zoom in and out or the price movement. Notice that each movement is composed of many smaller movements, and that each larger movement is merely a building block for some even greater movement. Using the David/Mary behavior described above, does the chart make more sense and is the price movement more intuitive now? The behavior described above is modeled by Elliott Waves in TA. When you see analysts labeling waves with numbers, they are in essence attempting to model an outcome of the current fractal behavior round. Fibonacci levels used to predict retraction/extension levels are likewise based on fractal behavior. It turns out that us being human leaves behind a very distinct behavioral signature that causes price bouncebacks at certain levels much more likely than at others. Chart Patterns (double-top reversal, flag, etc) are rooted on the same principle; they may seem like BS on the surface, but human trading creates repeatable patterns simply because it is driven by humans, and all humans are at the end of the day are largely the same. I am not going to go into any further details on Fib levels, Elliot Waves or Chart Patterns here since there is ample information available online, so Google will be your best friend there. Once you understand the fractal behavior that drives price movement, understanding various indicators intended to interpret such behavior should likewise become much more natural. One thing to keep in mind is that all indicators based on behavioral patterns are merely one part of the overall equation and as such will always be probabilistic. Just because some analyst states that XYZ may happen based on the chart, does not mean that it will actually happen. Rather, what they are saying is that based on human behavior and previous price action, some proposed outcome *may* be likely. Always keep that in mind. Moving on – fractal behavior at a micro level (single round of Mary and David dong their thing) can frequently be modeled using momentum-based indicators. These will include indicators that most people will probably be familiar with, including MA, EMA, SMA, MACD, RSI etc. Here is the thing with momentum-based indicators; if the intervals are set up properly to follow the speed of the market, then momentum-based indicators may be somewhat useful. If the intervals are misaligned with the market speed then any signals generated by these will be complete BS. Stated differently, by adjusting the intervals of various indicators you will be able to see whatever you want to see and spin whatever story you would like regardless of what the market is actually doing. Needless to say, I am personally not a huge fan of any momentum-based indicators as they generate much noise and offer minimum value at best. In my opinion, there are only two scenarios where momentum-based indicators are somewhat useful: As a self-fulfilling prophecy. Most traders use similar sets of preset intervals, and as such most will “see” similar signals at similar times. This in turn will cause most to perform the similar type of action in response to the signal (buy/sell), which will cause the actual signal to materialize itself as an actual corresponding price movement. Dx/Dy based indicators such as MACD may provide an early warning sign of a slowdown which *may* point to an advancement in the fractal pattern (aka a reversal on some scale), but if and only if the underlying moving average intervals have been aligned to the speed of price movement. That’s really it. I’m sure there are plenty of day traders who have gotten quite proficient at setting up their indicators in a manner that is reflective of the underlying price and as such produces solid signals more often than not, but if you are a beginner I would strongly recommend not trading solely based on any such indicators until you get a good feel for the underlying asset and are able to intuitively tell whether your indicators are set up properly to follow the price action. When the fractal nature of the market is considered, it becomes apparent that momentum-based indicators are not particularly well aligned to modeling the underlying behavior. As soon as fractal development frequency changes, any indicators that have previously been rock-solid become instantly invalidated. Wanna lose all your money in a jiffy? Develop a trading bot based on any of these indicators and see what happens when the market moves sideways or begins oscillating at wavelengths lower than your source indicator interval settings. Nonetheless, it is not that momentum-based indicators are not all bad, it is that in the grand scheme of fractal behavior they are only valid on a very specific scale and for a singular fractal movement. They will work until they don’t, and once they don’t, they will need to be recalibrated. Elliott Waves/Patterns/Fibs are therefore better suited for modeling large scale price behavior, while MA/SMA/EMA/RSI/MACD/etc will be better suited for modeling confined price movements. Having said all of that, there is a reason that one of the richest people in the world is a value investor rather than a TA prodigy. Fundamental analysis works far better for predicting future asset value than any TA ever could. Utility, adoption, roadmap, quality of management *are* the core drivers of value, and value and its perception is what drives the price action. At any given point in time, the chart you see in front of you will thus be the result of the following: Value + perceived value --> Triggers action. Increased value = sunny; Mary gets more blocks. Decreased value = cloudy; David gets more blocks. Fractal behavior --> Drives market response to the action. Mary and David both do what they do using blocks they have been given. Speculation --> Amplifies the response. Here are the key points, and the reason that I wanted to put this together in the first place: Bubbles form when perceived value greatly exceeds the actual value. Considering all the FUD out there, large portion of people still believe that XRP is worthless (aka “perceived value = 0”). This means that (value + perceived value) for XRP is still close to (value + 0), meaning that recent price action has been driven by at least some actual value rather than complete BS. Two takeaways: (1) How many other coins do you know of for which this also holds true? (2) Once the FUD dissipates and the perceived value increases, the effect on price action will be exponential Mary and David are always at work. Even when it is sunny and Mary is firing on all cylinders, David will produce some blocks. Likewise, even when it is cloudy, the sun will break up through the clouds to energize Mary. This is the fundamental nature of the market, and is completely normal. This behavior is amplified by rampant speculation in cryptos, which is why 1000% returns are just as normal as 50-80% pullbacks. Ripple the company is gaining good traction. There are good news coming up, and it feels that those will only be followed up by more good news. The fundamentals are therefore getting stronger, and fundamentals drive everything else as per above. Forecast is predominately sunny with no rain in the foreseeable future. Therefore: - “XRP is crashing!” Are future good news anticipated? Yes --> Whatever then; HODL. - “My investment is down 50% in 24 hours!” Are future good news anticipated? Yes -> HODL. - “XRP is gonna drop to $1!” Are future good news anticipated? Yes -> HODL. - Headline: “XRP reaches $10/100/1000 only to crash 80%!!” Are future good news anticipated? Yes -> HODL. - FUD is replaced with extreme enthusiasm and you start seeing articles pop up on the internet containing the word “paradigm” -> Get out while you still can. So there you have it. I am gonna go take a nap now while hodling. Wake me up when fundamentals change please. Before I go snooze though, just one friendly reminder: I am just some internet guy, and you should never listen to internet guys. For all you know, I could be a dummy who doesn’t realize that they are dumb and instead views themselves as confident. Use your own head, do your own research, come up with your own decisions. If this perspective helps you sort some things out faster, then great. If not, then at least you know to be careful when handling momentum-based TA trading bomb...err…bots.

I've been looking for a few different alts and one that looks to be under bought is Salt. There's an absolutely huge buy wall at approx 39k satoshis, and each time it's previously hit this level it has essentially bounced and added 35% onto its value. Could be worth a look?... (not financial advice blah blah )

Euro-fork point of view: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9yXx6EDq/

Ripple, XRP Update : Ripple and Bitcoin started the week on a strong bullish sentiment while NEO lost ground and Ethereum continued its consolidation. https://investdiva.com/invest-guide?slug=xrp-continues-strong-bullish-sentiment-ahead-ripple-conference

Just saying. I think we'll se a major fast and sharp sell off with re-bounce. Could spike as low as 0.10. For the adventurous, put some limits ahead (beware of low liquidity, not too much $ at one price). Timeframe 2-8 days from now. Let's see if I'm right. Just my 2 cents, no advice.

Those that know me are aware that I look for entries on breakouts of ranges, former highs and lows etc and have a tendency so spot very fast scalping moves calling some of them on the Zerpbox. So we have been in a range since the high @ 42c and the swing low of that high at 12c featured below, the low generated a good support level at around the 21/22c area and the high a good resistance area at around 31/32c which day traders might look to make entries on. We needed to break up of 32c a couple of weeks ago some of you might remember people talking about that level as being key. Whats happened since is the main range has created a couple of smaller ranges all visible in the polo screen shot below. Now I hate chart patterns but all these smaller ranges failing to break have generated a symmetrical triangle which has a high probability of a break upwards (apparently). Just an insight.... Haraldo