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  1. Hi everyone, I've followed this forum for the past few months. The recent SWELL conference is the impetus I have for joining. While many are disappointed in the lack of a price increase, I, for one, couldn't be more hopeful and optimistic for the future. For those who actually listened in instead of checking www.coinmarketcap.com every hour of each of the three days, I think that it's clear that Ripple - and yes, XRP - is headed into positive, brighter territory. I hope to continue learning from you as we move forward. Onwards and upwards. -(Not the real Napoleon)
  2. I took a few nights to go ahead and build a site with most of Ripple's functionality. It's essentially a 1-page cold-wallet version of RippleTrade. Everything is client-side and nothing stored or processed by any servers other than the Ripple network. https://www.theworldexchange.net/ Hopefully this spurs more interest in people using Ripple as more than just a currency.
  3. CSBS Announces Fintech Advisory Panel Members Industry Input Essential for Vision 2020 Modernization Initiative Washington, D.C. – Today the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) announced that 33 financial technology companies have agreed to serve on the CSBS Fintech Industry Advisory Panel. The panel brings together state regulators and industry leaders, who will identify ways to help modernize the state regulatory system. https://www.csbs.org/news/press-releases/pr2017/Pages/10192017.aspx
  4. Hello everyone, I just wanted to share my opinion about Ripple's strategy going forward and open up a discussion on our expectations (as XRP holders). I don't think we are entitled to an ROI necessarily, but we do deserve to be at least counted here. The Swell conference really was an eye opener in the sense that we now know, without a doubt that Banks will not use XRP in the short run. And it is not because they may not find it interesting/appealing but rather because there are regulatory challenges barring them from adapting digital currencies. So, maybe 5 years down the road when the entire industry has moved on they will adopt a digital currency and use that for x border transactions but even then we don't know if they will use XRP or some new digital asset that is issued by a banking consortia or an international organization or a private company, etc. Which is by the way, why I am feeling at unease with the overemphasis of banking clients by Ripple. It may be interesting for the banks to use blockchain for messaging (payment side I suppose) and having a low failure rate, but what is the value added for us as XRP holders? I think we are unfairly overlooked even though we are one of the key stakeholders in this ecosystem. I mean if Brad Garlinghouse is able to talk about a 15bn $ war chest, that is because people like you and me have valued XRP by buying and keeping XRP using our hard earned cash. I am not saying that Ripple owes us an ROI of x % or whatever, but at least, they should not ignore the fact that we are taking a substantial risk, we are investing in a particular asset, in a new asset class with substantial regulatory and market risk on all sides. So it would be fair that we would like to see some activity that does lead to XRP use and demand for this digital asset. So, we would like, or at least as an XRP holder, I would like to know what Ripple is doing about actual companies (uber, airbnb, amazon...) and/or organizations (foundations as in the Gates Foundation case, non-bank FIs etc) that will use XRP and create a demand for XRP. When will we see these guys joining in, in large numbers? What is the road map on this side? I really hope Ripple has thought of and is currently executing a strategy here, otherwise waiting for banks to adapt XRP is a very complacent and potentially devastating move for both us and Ripple. There will surely be many other digital assets coming into play over the next 18-36 months and competing in this space, some of them will potentially be backed by well known/trust worthy organizations, some may even have their own exchanges. Lastly, I am not giving up on XRP but I would like to know that we are not just being wishful thinkers waiting for a massive bank adaption of XRP, that there is more to Ripple's strategy than a focus on banks. Because so far, all discussions and positioning have been focusing almost exclusively on this side.
  5. This family bet it all on bitcoin

  6. This post concerns price prediction for XRP but also -- taking a step back to provide a little perspective -- (price) prediction in general. I don't consider 'XRP to the moon!' or 'Bitcoin to USD 500,000!' to fall into the category of serious predictions. Requirements for prediction Predicting a price for XRP or other crypto asset is a difficult task. Asking people here who may be more knowledgeable about the inner workings of Ripple (the company) or who may have been speculating in crypto for longer than oneself to make predictions for next month, next year, or several years out is something of enormous complexity that is, most likely, beyond pretty much anyone's level of skill to accomplish at this point in time. No one is prevented from harboring a hope or hazarding a guess as to eventual valuations, but it is important to realize a guess is just that. Some guesses are based on better information, specific domain (banking) knowledge, and/or made from a more level-headed POV, and thus are more educated. They are still guesses, however. Coming up with well-founded predictions hinges on at least two things: 1) availability of historical data and 2) an understanding of the relative importance of the factors involved in determining price and of their relationships. With both of these well in hand, we can take a shot at a price projection by building a predictive model. Without them, we are most likely back to 'XRP to the moon!' Obstacles to prediction What are some of the possible obstacles we may run into? As to #1, data may not be available for a long enough time period to help us discern trends, cyclic variations, seasonality, etc. It may also happen that we simply don't have enough data, we have little data that are reliable, or we lack trusted data sources. We may have data with a lot of noise (extraneous factors we have a hard time detecting, or filtering even if detected.) As to #2, not all important factors may be observable to us (ex. Ripple's possible partnership agreements in development), their relative importance may grow or wane over time, new/unforeseen factors may come into play (ex. SEC regulations), or we may be unable to assess how these factors interact and quantitatively influence price without designing fairly complex statistical experiments. If all of this is under control, so to speak, and we are reasonably confident in our grasp of the subject matter, we can proceed to build a model that may have a chance of formulating useful predictions. Basics of building models Predictive models are built in which current predictions account both for the additive effect of past values of variables and past predictions. These models are error-driven by the difference between 'wrong' predictions and actual values, with past data also weighed differently according to recency -- typically, more recent data are assumed to be more influential and older data are 'discounted' and incorporated into the model accordingly. Many of these models work in real-time, meaning predictions are recalculated and the model is updated whenever new data come in (every minute, etc.) As one looks increasingly ahead, the prediction horizon moves as well ('receding horizon' modeling.) In understanding and 'regressing' (finding/fitting) possible relationships between all influencing variables and the dependent/output variable (ex. price), much work is involved in gauging which among these factors may carry more weight and need to be included in the model and which can be safely ignored with a view to simplifying the model and making it less computationally intensive. A common refrain here is not to confuse correlation with causation, meaning not to jump to unwarranted conclusions about the information you think you understand and attribute non-existing properties to relationships. See what's there, not what you want to see. Not easy. Limitations of models Many financial models of exceeding complexity have been built, with a large number being unsuccessful or only modestly successful. This is not due to lack of skill on the part of the modelers, but rather to the inherent complexity of the task, including 1) accounting properly for all important variables (many of which may be hidden/unobservable), and 2) being able to quantify/measure them accurately, both in an absolute sense as well as relative to one another. Once built, the range of validity and applicability of a model is another important aspect to consider, which people, in their over-zealousness to draw conclusions that apply 'always', often stretch beyond the realm of credibility. Misapplication of models does happen, and is likely to happen more often the more a model is complex and appears as a 'black box' to the often naive end user. Simple models you can understand and explain, complex ones are beyond most people's reach. I include in these, for example, models based on neural nets, with 'reasoning paths' that are very hard to explain and therefore are not readily accepted in the medical diagnostics domain (vs. decision trees, which are more understandable, at least up to a point.) As someone said succinctly, you can usually torture data to the point where it will eventually confess and admit to anything you want or hope for. These factors are all the more true when people are involved, and especially in an unregulated environment such as crypto, with allegiance to specific 'coins' and disdain for others bordering on fanaticism. Even stocks and bonds, which are heavily regulated, pose a formidable obstacle to successful prediction. Typically, mathematical models are built to handle 'steady state' situations, but cannot deal with 'transients' nearly as well or at all. Transients are sudden changes that eventually die out but reflect the fact that the system being looked at is moving from one situation or set of operating conditions to another (ex. ICO to 5 years post-ICO.) The more stable and under control a situation is, the easier it may be to make a prediction. This, by the way, is true not only for finance but also in science and engineering. Interestingly, the more a model is good at tracking, the worse it is at detecting/predicting unforeseen changes. And 'unforeseen' is the key word. I always remember Peter Lynch, the successful (and very hard working) Fidelity Magellan fund manager, stating ruefully and not with little irony that 'earnings surprise' were the two words most often heard together in that setting, despite all of his and his staff's poring 24x7 over financial reports, traveling extensively to be onsite and do tire-kicking and look under hoods at company plants, etc. Consider also that these assessments and attempts at forecasting concerned established companies, within well developed and understood markets, and with years of widely available and endlessly dissected information. Underlying assumptions I mentioned steady state and transients. The implicit assumption underlying prediction efforts -- and it is a huge one, ignored at one's own peril -- is that the future has a fairly close relationship to the past and present in terms of the operating environment, influencing factors, etc. I repeat, the future is assumed to be not too different from the present or the historical past. Another word for this is 'stability'. So, one may well want to ask oneself this: How stable is the crypto environment? Are we facing an incremental change or a disruptive sea change? Do I have abundant data, accurate and consistent across time periods? How confident am I that, looking at the past history of XRP prices and other information at my disposal, I can come up with something (a model or series of quantitative relationships based on the data available to me) from which I can reasonably predict what its price in 6 months is likely to be? Do I understand what's at play here as far as factors influencing price movement? How much is there that I simply don't know? (impossible to know, by definition.) Would I have known 2 years ago or 1 year ago where XRP would be today if I had applied my current reasoning to the situation then? Could anybody, including well thought of Ripple employees, have done better? Can I readily quantify the potential impact on price of something known in advance, such as the coming escrow/lockup? If not, what are my chances to be successful with information that is far more uncertain? Much simpler, will it rain tomorrow? :-). Even here, weather predictions coming out of complex models are of the type '50% chance of rain' whereas we would like to know 'yes in the morning, no in the afternoon', not quite the same. I should also add that there is no shortage of commercial models/tools that are retrofitted to past data and made to look as if they are near-infallible for marketing purposes, yet when applied to new data they fall abysmally short. One consequence of 'overfitting' is typically lack of ability to generalize to different situations. This is an interesting rabbit hole, but I will leave it at that. Reasonable expectations I have known CEOs and CFOs who wanted 'a number' out of some analysis that would be an accurate prediction of some value. They acted as if we lived in a certain world. Because we do not, it is often better to come up with an estimate of a range of values, each with a different probability of occurrence. This is because there is so much uncertainty as to what matters and how it may evolve that 'a range' is literally the best one can aim for. Claiming the ability to do otherwise would be naive and/or dishonest. Even using Monte Carlo simulation of thousands or tens of thousands of combinatorial scenarios as a means of dealing with uncertainty in relevant factors, however, requires a level of knowledge about the data being used and the interrelationship of variables at play. Uncertainty in the inputs translates to uncertainty in the output (prediction.) No doubt companies such as Blackrock, Fidelity and others wading into this space will be throwing their best resources at the business of crypto prediction, most likely via machine learning. Massive computing resources are being and will be thrown at the task of semi-automatically building very complex predictive models. And they'll still get things wrong a fair amount of the time, despite the terabytes of data at their disposal. Regardless of the domain, it is generally easier to make predictions 'in the aggregate' about a sector or a group (of stocks, bonds, hospital patients, real estate in a specific neighborhood, and perhaps a subset of crypto assets) than it is to do so about a single individual or instance in that domain. We might be able to predict that the crypto space, as it relates to the top 50 assets, will likely be up in market cap a year from now (but not 'by how much') far more easily than by how many dollars or cents a single asset will climb or fall in the coming week. This, of course, may disappoint those who demand to know where XRP's price will be tomorrow at 5 pm. Parting thoughts Expecting other speculators on these forums -- or Ripple's CEO, for that matter -- to come up with a number that may fairly accurately reflect XRP's value (or that of any other budding crypto project, as I am loath to call most of these initiatives 'coins') at some near future date is a fool's errand, so to speak (no offense meant.) I understand the dreams, the concerns, the impatience, and all the rest, but awareness is needed as to the complexity of what is being asked. And no one here needs to feel bad if they can't come up with a proper prediction, given all the unknowns and the fast-changing environment. In my view, a sensible approach is the following: as long as our research about the company, competitors, partnerships, upcoming regs, and so on presents convincing arguments to our reasoning and supports our expectations for a better future (qualitatively, not quantitatively), consider staying involved. When the quantitative panorama clears and our grasp of the situation improves, decide whether and how much to invest. Whenever data cease to inform, or if we are unable to establish anything with certainty, stop and reconsider. Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this post, or other posts by me, constitutes financial advice. I leave you with three pithy quotes that have stood the test of time, as uttered by people well known in the world of finance, the business of investing, and the area of model building/forecasting for their (un)common sense as well as their skill: 1. All models are wrong. Some are useful. 2. If you're going to forecast, forecast often. 3. A forecast tells you more about the person making it than it does about the future. Food for thought? I hope I didn't put too many here to sleep with this and at least a few among you found it somewhat useful. Best wishes to all with Ripple and XRP.
  7. Ripple, connecting common ledgers, facilitating low cost payment. https://filene.org/assets/files-brains/Athey_CryptoCurrency.pdf
  8. When will an exchange open up with XRP as the gateway coin the way BTC is now? With its claim as the fastest coin on the market, is seems like a no brainer. If there were an exchange where every coin flowed into and out of xrp it would give it an extremely obvious and immediate use case. Last year when SBI partnered with Kraken https://news.bitcoin.com/sbi-kraken-announce-multi-million-dollar-deal/ and then announced that it was opening an exchange https://www.coindesk.com/sbi-first-bank-backed-digital-currency-exchange/ I thought for sure that because of SBI Ripple Asia... that an XRP based exchange was exactly what was about to happen. It makes too much sense.... and yet, no news. Does anyone have any articles that point to this happening at some point or give a timeline to that kind of liquidity boost?
  9. I want to start a discussion about the escrow. We all heard Ripple saying that they are going to lockup 55 billion XRP by the end of the year. My question is how will this affect the price - many argue that the price has the escrow already factored in, since there is only 38 something billion of XRP in circulation anyway, the other side would argue that the psychological effect of the escrow actually happening may trigger FOMO buying beyond anything we've seen so far. Another point is XRP sourcing by FIs. Now, and I am guessing here, Ripple can sell directly from their stash. How will this work after the escrow? Will only a certain amount be available to FIs each month or is there a way around this for someone with really big appetite? How would FIs actually buy their XRP after the escrow - through an exchange? I somehow can't see BoA creating a Kraken account to buy their XRP. Any insights, thoughts and speculation welcome here.
  10. It was noted from JoelKatz and Brad Garlinghouse about the enormous amount of interest received from potential clients during SWELL-- how many new clients/partners do you think they snatched up after this event? Of course it's all speculation at this point, but sometimes a little speculation is fun. Oh and of course, to the haters, naysayers, get-rich-quick folks, fickle traders and investors, and shamans accurately predicting XRP's price movements after the fact:
  11. I want to start a constructive conversation about the results of swell. So please if you happen to be a whiny day trader or a butt hurt XRP price speculator please don't apply. With that said, what are your thoughts on the results of swell? Do you feel the speakers there have promoted the benefits of ripple and blockchain as a whole? Do you feel that ripple may have gotten the proper exposure they were gunning for? Also is there any area you feel SWELL did not address? Personally I feel SWELL did what it was intended to do. It gave Ripple the exposure and voice to challenge SWIFT while opening new avenues for xrp. The results of SWELL will not be immediate and I believe we will see something before the end of the year. 2018 is looking to be a positive year for Ripple considering how many f.i's they've supposedly signed up. So let's have a positive discussion everyone and get this forum back on track.
  12. With day two of Swell near, most Ripple XRP holders are left dazed on whether the recent partnering with the Gates Foundation was Brad's cat up his sleeve. But will there another ace up his sleeve to swell his Ripple supporters and purses/wallets? As pundits guess, I do believe that Brad is still holding his biggie that will support his thematic swelling or 'swell' conference with countdown of 3-2-1 ... to grow footprint and use of XRPs by swelling products/services from bank payments to p2p in under-developed countries to ... possibly swell tie ups with credit card, major FIs, Apple, payment providers or other FinTech cos. In this highly fast market, it is 'make or break' or 'go big or go home' for Ripple as recently seen with ex-Ripple Jed's venture called Stellar stealing the pre-show entertainment. For Ripple's XRP, valuation is back to pre-show levels ($0.25 level now after Ripplegate) with very high daily volumes which would suggest liquidation/profit taking from near 0.30 level from our Korean folks. For long term holders, we'd like retest of 52 week highs of 0.40 to provide the fuel for future success, loyalty and confidence as any lost of integrity/trust from Ripple's management team would only lead to detraction to other fintech players. This bodes well for participant banks, central banks, other players/partners and retail speculators just like me. Coming back to Ripple's cat, a big 'meow' of a deal will go a long way rather than a shrieking 'purr' on the remaining days of this conference.
  13. Not pretty ... https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/18/national/crime-legal/manager-ripple-cryptocurrency-exchange-arrested-scam/#.WeeB30ERXYU
  14. SWELL has generated industry-wide publicity for Ripple. Time to give those curious some advice on their first steps in owning XRP. This blog entry is for the newbies! I cover topics like choosing an exchange and a wallet, for those that are just stepping into the space. Hope you enjoy & please feel free to leave feedback below. As always, feel free to share on other media & thanks for doing so! My blog announcements on other media: Twitter Reddit Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread Discord
  15. I couldn’t pay a ton of attention to SWELL but from what I gathered (please correct me anywhere I’m wrong) there seems to be some possible hidden hype/relationship around Ripple's Interledger Protocol, Microsoft and Ethereum. ——— Pre-SWELL Marley Gray of Microsoft “Ripple starts to make a lot of sense especially when you throw the Interledger Protocol into the mix. At the end of the day, the thing underlying all of these applications and smart contracts (Ethereum) is payments.” ”In all of these interactions, you’ll have to move money around. So you will need Ripple for that. We see Ripple and ILP becoming part of the fabric of this multi-chain reality.” Source: https://ripple.com/insights/microsofts-marley-gray-ripple-and-ilp-will-be-the-fabric-of-multi-chain-future/ ——— SWELL 1) Bill Gates Gates Foundation partnership 2) Vitalik Buterin "You may want to have digital assets that are based on one chain to be usable on another chain. You may want contracts that are on one chain to be able to send funds to other chains." 3) Stefan Thomas Anyone else see the connection between Ripple, Ethereum and Microsoft?
  16. Er wordt meerdere malen verwezen naar Ripple! http://daskapital.nl/2017/10/rijke_mensen_willen_allemaal_a_1.html
  17. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMU3tk1WAAAiXYs?format=jpg Found this on the xrp tag on Twitter. Not sure if it's fake or not. But if there really is partner FOMO than the biggest news will not drop for another few weeks or months.
  18. Some XRPchat members may feel unsatisfied by what's coming from SWELL so far, but look at what @JoelKatz has said today:
  19. Considering that Vitalik Buterin was at the swell conference speaking, could this mean that Ripple and Ethereum want to partner with each other? This is what vitalik buterin said at swell, "You may want to have digital assets that are based on one chain to be usable on another chain. You may want contracts that are on one chain to be able to send funds to other chains." IMO this could ( i'm really emphasizing could) mean that RIpple and Ethereum have plans for partnership in the future. This could be the answer to the whole "Cat in the bag" for the potential swell announcement
  20. I am not sure how many of you are at the Swell event but it will be great to catch up at the party tonight (which I should be heading out in an hrs time). I am in a rush to attend a meeting, so kindly ignore the grammatical errors. On my first day at Swell, I got the impression that it was a last minute thing as the conference area was really small, taking into consideration of the big guns who were speaking at the event. This kinda made me (and many others who I networked with) to think that there is going to be a huge announcement coming up shortly. Keynote speakers Bernanke and TIm Berners-Lee were giving a flashback of their time during the financial crisis and why the Internet was created BUT did not somehow vet Ripple making a fundamental change or creating a revolution in the financial/blockchain space (at least to me). Apparently they had some kinda get together on Sunday night which was focused on the Gates foundation announcement but many within the audience were curious to know if that was the "cat out of the bag announcement" that Brad was talking about during his Quora interview. If I was disconnected from the Internet during the Swell event, I would have had no clue about the Gates foundation announcement till Stefan mentioned about it in the last session today. Many asked me if I saw or spoke with Joel Katz and at least in my eyes he was not visible over the past 2 days. Probably he might make an appearance at the party later tonight! On top of that, the customer celebration party is kinda misleading (at least to me) as it made me think that they are going to announce a new customer (probably I will find out over the next few hours...you never know). If it was supposed to be their existing customers celebration party...they clearly forgot to put the "s" after the Customer in the Eventbrite pass. All in all, this was a great day for Ripple but not necessarily for XRP investors. The banks I spoke with were clearly not looking at XRP at this point of time (but u never know if they were under a NDA) but were more interested in solving some of their burning issues that Ripple's product suite currently addresses and they had a very high opinion on. This is a journey for Ripple and it kinda reminds me of QUALCOMM during their CDMA vs. GSM days albeit Ripple has a more open approach. I think the banking industry needs to realize that they need to act swiftly as they will have to compete with next generation banks who just offer financial services via a mobile app and the fact that social media companies are planning to diversify into financial services, we have seen this with OTT players and now in retail thanks to players such as Amazon. I keep thinking at times , if you have a global community of users wanting to just use cryptos to buy/sell stuff, then the banking industry (probably the fear behind regulators in figuring out how to tax people in such a system) could be impacted and during Vitalik's talk (the guy is pretty unique I must say), he kinda trash talked the banks although he did mention at the same time he viewed RIpple, Hyperledger and Chain to be his friends rather than enemies (which is pretty interesting). It will be interesting to see what happens to XRP once the escrow happens this year and who will actually use (banks vs. retail) and how/why (use cases?). It will also be interesting to see if Ethereum will form an alliance with Ripple to realize synergies of smart contracts on Ripplenet (akin to Ripple's erstwhile Codius project). Even interesting is how Hyperledger is going to maintain a fine balance with Project Quilt by working with Ripple/NTT Data, and IBM's recent announcement on Stellar Lumens. So here's the thing. As of now, there's no major earthshaking announcement by Ripple that might make people (especially XRP investors) go Wowwww. Despite that, they were able to pull in some really well respected speakers from both the traditional banking space and blockchain world (including some competitors I would say) to speak at the event and spend good quality time (like they made Bernanke literally speak and answer questions for more than a hour). I think Ripple's on the right front by talking to banks and regulators(which is quite a challenge on a global scale), and changing the mindset of such organizations takes time and loads of patience. All in all, I learnt a lot about Blockchain and RippleNet at the event and to all the XRP investors out there---HODL --- Ripple has a great vision for the future and executing their strategy to reach that vision takes time/networking/negotiating --Like the saying goes...Rome was not built in a day! Off to the party now and on that note...All the way to the Moon folks:)
  21. SEPA instant payment

    Launching Instant payment in Belgium 2018 is one of the headliners in news bulletin in Belgium today. But in november coming SEPA will launch it already. See link: https://www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/what-we-do/sepa-instant-credit-transfer Is this backed by Ripple and will this be announced on SWELL? Also found a reddit thread:
  22. Just noticed an addition to the final day of Swell. https://swell.ripple.com/agenda/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Tapscott
  23. I don’t wanna spread any rumor but this article published by Financial Times today said Bank of America is one of Ripple’s partners? https://www.ft.com/content/268c9668-af56-11e7-aab9-abaa44b1e130