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  1. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ || Type: This is a medium term strategic report. Salient points about this report: This is the first report in my series, that is taking into account some important market weights. the are macro weights that impact overall market as a whole. the macro weights considered are "dominant asset weights" , "market wide risks" and lastly "market capital conditions". Considering these macro-weights and having them as part of our analysis, shoudl improve the quality and wholesome-ness of this report substantially. will this material as such or not, we will be able to see in a few reports time. Summary: In the previous report strategic report on 20th of June, we did significant study of reliable changes developing on slopes and demand curve at various intervals. we were able to clearly identify the following: Clearly, it has been over 11 days, and the asset is on a price hold. while it has shown remarkable stability & strength during sell-offs, it has also not started any significant uptrend ( which we were expecting and still do ) Some important changes as of today: The general Market cap reduction due to profit taking cycles have brought the overall caps down. Before recent profit taking wave the altcoin market cap was around 114 Billion USD, coming all the way down to 88 Billion USD and finally starting to stabilize at 97 Billion. 114 Billion, ( June 19th ) | | ,_ _ 97 Billion (July 1st ) - We are starting to stabilize, but might take another leg down all the way to 77 Billion ( Only 20 % Chances ) | | | | '88 Billion (June 27th ) But whats most important to use is the change in XRP percent capital. this is the true indicator that shows if the asset strengthened 'after' taking market cap changes into consideration. Before profit taking cap redux - XRP Market cap was 9.12% of the total market cap. However, after profit taking and stabilization, currently XRP Market cap is 10.88%. Ethereum has taken most of the hit ( while bitcoin has strengthened more then XRP ) Important Observation : hence, As far as "strengthening" goes - XRP and BTC has strengthened. BTC has strengthened by 3.8% while XRP has strengthened by 1.76 % - almost everything else has weakened. I know for those who are just observing the price, it might not look like it, but here are the mathematical facts. However, due to overall market cap reduction - strong support is now at 22.7 cents, and range base is at 27 cents. ( in other words 27 cents is the new 30 cents we were looking for - where uptrend starts ) Important to not fall for overall market sentiments and see what individual assets are getting set for. ETH is in a sustained correction for now, While XRP has completed correction, and has started post-correction strengthening. this is where we are. Important resistance lines As mentioned above, XRP's uptrend is not without selling pressure. So where are these resistance points as we stand today ? > Small resistance stands its way at 28 cents (around 5.7 million USD worth of selling accumulation), > Little larger one at 30.2 cents (around 9.5 million usd worth selling accumulation). > Major resistance stands at 34 and 37 cents (around 43 million worth of selling accumulation). > A small, but sustained and continued resistance stands in the way from 37 to 43 cents. ( around 16 million USD worth ) There is no resistance after 43 cents, 43 cents is the next "range" break out zone. How much does it take to overcome this resistence? While some people are annoyed with stagnating prices and stability, all this while XRP has attained the range base three times - Re-asserted itself as strong asset, clearly showed fundamental strength and lastly has been strengthening quietly ( also warding off unstable money, and attracting strategic money ) and as we are today, all it takes for a market breakout onto the upside is over 0.7 billion addition to the market cap. this is what we call silent approach to break out. this is not a blind guess, while not accurate to the digits, its a close estimate. please have a note of this. This kind of silent strengthening is well-known to ware your patience thin, and cause regrets. hope this report in sufficient advance stops costly mistakes to those who trade. Few other important signals: Range formation is almost complete, and as mentioned above strengthening is also almost complete. However slope improvements have been inconsistent. what this means is we can get the gradual uptrend we were looking for OR we can stagnate a bit and break out more suddenly. Also please note the stabilization of mean and range has begun - which marks preparation for a trend change. Also accumulation and smart money has increased 'significantly'. Current Probabilities: >> There is a 45% chance that we will resume an uptrend at 27 cents with clearly strengthening slope + buying pressure. >> there is a 40% chance that we will continue to stagnate for a while and suddenly breakout on the upside. >> There is a 15 % chance that we will fall below 24 cents. Wish each one of you, your very best of luck ~! Kindly, R8
  2. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ || Type: This is a quick signal change update only and not strategic. Summary: ~~~~~~~ In continuation to the previous markets report, where I derived the following: Today, i have observed few key signals. They are as follows : >> Slopes dynamics have further improved. >> Demand curve has further improved. >> close to close - PVI has fallen - impatient/unstable money/investors have got bored and moved away for now >> close to close - NVI has greatly improved - Smart and strategic money flow has increased. >> Accumulation has kept positive growth and has not reduced. both + and - directional indicators are healthy. ( aka: healthy market interest and buy/sell curve ) >> Momentum has increase by a decent step. positive oscillation is overpowering the negative momentum in a consistent manner. and most importantly, all of this has been consistent more or less across the global markets, through all major traded XRP currency pairs. XRP Dynamics especially with USD and BTC ( which were lagging ) has improved greatly. Technical Conclusion: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ bereft of any sudden bad/good news, sell off's or other external induced panic & market moving conditions - Just as we are, even without any new significant good news - We shoudl be starting a gradual, spiky but slowly stabilizing uptrend from here. Kindly, R8
  3. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ || Type: This is a strategic medium term trend update Summary: ~~~~~~~ In the previous Market Conditions report on 14th of June 2017, we clearly recognized the point of reversal & also studied the upward trends that were forming with then relevant market conditions. These were the key observation/inference and probabilities from the previous report As we stand today ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >> Globally, across all markets, I have received multiple confirmation signals that base formation at 30 cents range has now begun. >> while shallow slope appreciated significantly (useless), fortunately, deep-slope has also appreciated by over 13~15 Degrees (Strength & Market Interest). >> the strong support lines have moved up from 23.6 to 25 Cents ( place where support sustains stagnant price for extended period and provides bounce ) All in all, very clear signs of a fundamentally strong asset. One key observation ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ the patterns in which bottoms have been quick bounce, bases have been retested many times, and range base is being "strongly" established for the third time, since past 9 hours - All together form yet another "confirming" signals of XRP behaving like a long wave asset. In simple words such assets integrate well into daily life, become part of the social fabric and play a society sustaining role for significant periods of time. this is what bestows them the patterns of a long wave sinusoidal. Important chart snippet: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I request you all to take a VERY CLOSE look at the chart snippet below. it is just last 3 days , since when reversal triggered base formation in 30 cents range. especially, the last indicator is the Ehler Fischer Transform ( red+white line), the last second is the ADX/DMS , the third one from bottom is Accumulation distribution. >> the pattern made by Ehler Fischer after 16.00 Hours of 6/18 is VERY significant. any eye can recognize the perfect symmetry and it sure means something. Will let you know in a moment. >> The Green (+DI) and Red (-DI) lines in DMS have shown "clear reversal" - meaning reversal after a good tug fight. now green is low-slope upward and red is low-slope downward. >> finally Look how the Accumulation has slope improvements, which is essential "loudly" screaming that all of this is indeed solid and not shallow. What does this mean. this combined signal co-related to macro trends and signals. Especially Ehler Fisher stepward strengthening at a "range base" - and not any "range base" , but the range base that is forming after 3rd significant retest... For me personally all this seems to be telling we are in the special stage as shown below, and the play-out time co-relating to past seems to be next 3 to 4 years. : Current Probabilities : ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Last weeks probabilities have had a gradual progress with slope improvements, remain accurate and in play. Please find the updated probabilities below: There is a 70% chance that XRP is going to establish stable base at 30 cents for the third time and further continue uptrend to 37 cents. this uptrend will be gradual with constant, consistent but mediocre selling pressure built in. There is a 25% chance that XRP will fall back to find support at 25 cents. There is only 5% chance that XRP will fall below 25 cents (25 is the new 21). Also thought will share Chris Vila's excellent view on GR (IF anyone likes to watch :-) ): Kindly, R8
  4. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ || Type: This is a semi-strategic medium term trend update Summary ~~~~~~~ In the previous report we discussed how a existing conditions strength parameter like ADX/DMS , being neither a trend indicator, nor a momentum indicator can help us access the bottom formation & region of reversal. in short the conclusion was as follows : As we stand today we have progress as follows : --> Today Few important Observation ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >> Demand curve has improved. 23.6 cents is the new 21 cents. >> instability has reduced ( plane formations are more smooth - AKA : less shaky hands ) >> Base has strengthened, however slope has not appreciated significantly. ( AKA : The asset accrues gradual strength while waiting for positive/negative sentiment enforcement ) >> significant supply/selling is persistent upto 34 Cents, with some supply/selling is built upto 37~43 cents >> no "persistent" supply/selling beyond 43 Cents. Few key Takeaway ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >> XRP uptrend is not resistance free, there is going to be persistent selling till 37 cents. Which means the uptrend is going to be gradual and fought-for till 37 cents. this can last from few days to many weeks. >> This curve will also exhibit high ability to hold & even stagnate. many days can go without significant move up or down. >> A positive reinforcement or market mover can accelerate this and change current trend. Current Probabilities ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ There is a 55 % chance that XRP is going to establish stable base at 30 cents for the third time and further continue uptrend to 37 cents. There is a 40% chance that XRP will fall back to find support at 23.6~ cents. There is only 10% chance that XRP will fall below 23.6~ cents (23.6 is the new 21). I wish us all the very best ! Kindly, R8
  5. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ || Type: This is a strategic report co-related to fundamentals. Summary: ~~~~~~~~ We concluded the following two probabilities in the previous report on June 8th, where we discussed drag forces by BTC. I also briefly mentioned triple range-bottom, followed by triple base is yet another confirmation of an assets "fundamental strength" that has the sine longwave potentials. Some important points from previous report. Seems like, clearly P2 has enforced and in some ways nature has enforced against my own expectations of what is normal. there is a reason why is had the word "THIRD" in bold and caps in the previous 3 reports. As i mentioned we can "infer" something about assets that make triple bottom and form triple bases. This is not blind technicals, there got to be a reason for this to happen. After all the forces supporting a price is nothing more then a large group of investors forms of people like me and you. Today i wish to take some time and in the benefit of my friends and larger community here, wish to discuss few special characteristics of triple bottom & base, Hope you all find it informative. "Borrowing" some literature ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Especially when it comes to Triple bottom there is a famous book called "Trading Classic Chart Patterns" By Thomas N. Bulkowski. This was published by John Wiley & Sons in 2002 and statistically speaking, this has done a excellent job of testing waters around the theory of triple bottoms. I have myself referred it during adaptive implementations of many algorithms and find a permanent place on my shelf. here are few very relevant extracts from this book that I share with you today. I feel those who can relate to this will be benefited either way. 1st, lets see why we love triple measures and especially triple bottoms ( ) Page 372, Triple Bottoms - Trading Classic Chart Patterns, As we can see, short and long term alike, it produces gains in every observed sample. This is not hard to understand fundamentally speaking. because if something re-asserts 3 times, then there is strength in the asset and a reason for this strength. the asset is basically saying "you can test me as many times you like & I will stand the test". Observe how gains are higher if it makes a flat base instead of spike-and-bounce even on averages. and on page 374, he makes the following comment : So its safe to say that this does not happen with every asset. the asset needs to have some fundamentals that holds it from dropping dead, three times in a row. Now back to XRP. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ What we know : 1.) XRP fell from 29 cents support line, three different times. 2.) every single time it had "formed a base" and 'held' at 29 cents before giving way. 3.) It has successfully come back to 29 cents 2 times and is now in the process of doing it for the third time. and lastly, as I have been mentioning, while price may be stagnant or falling, there is one parameter that is "only" raising :-) . and that is "william's accumulation distribution Indicator". In short this pretty accurate indicator and the following is all you need to know about it (from investopedia): Below is the chart for XRP, with the triple bottom and triple base that is forming. ( The third one is NOW in progress ) & also with the "A/D indicator showing only increasing accumulation" Conclusion for today. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Watch this one carefully. Watch how ti plays out. "Pressure" is silently building by true investors who understand the asset and its purpose. the traders might be chasing profits on other assets and selling. A few days ago i mentioned a nimble price controlled accumulation on many exchanges, and this is confirming the same. At this point i am pretty much convinced that heavy accumulation is taking place. and this brings us to the unique probability play i mentioned in a report on 5th of June. in short, P1 did not materialize, P2 has played out ( but not fully, to 22 cents ) , we have proven accumulation is taking place and lastly XRP is in the process of forming third bottom and regain 29 cents base for the third time. this IS a confirmation of longwave. I will not be making any new probabilities for now, and will be following the existing play to the end of its trend lines. New Learning: ~~~~~~~~~~ In my endeavor to learn this beast, I have come to realize that the so called "whales" act in groups rather then individuals. Also seems like some exchanges have special relationship/agreements with such whale groups. lets just call them investor groups. I have learnt a bit more about how similar thigns are done in few exchanges and similar strategies are in place, however as these are observation and assumption without proof, i think i will avoid sharing names. But one thign is certain, there are "very" well organized large investor groups playing the market. Fundamental investors have nothing to worry, but if you are a little guy trying to be trader, then you shoudl not. the big shots are there with the very purpose of eating you outright ! and they have the power to set trends and do so. lastly, as always wish us all very good luck and wisdom. Kindly, R8
  6. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ || Type: This is a non-strategic signal update Summary: ~~~~~~~ As mentioned in the previous market conditions report, the following play is in full hold : and in regards to the play out, I have observed an important ADX/DMS signal change, which is as follows : It is important to note that ADX ( Average Directional Index ) is neither a trend indicator, nor a momentum indicator. It is in some ways a very dynamic "strength" indicator for existing conditions. hence very helpful to find when trend is loosing steam and when it is in full power. In other words, it does not matter if we are poking a bull or a bear, this indicator says if it is powerful or exhausted. secondly the DMS are Directional movement indicators. the red is -DM, the green is positive DM and finally the blue is ADX. As we can clearly see *(see directly below the dotted white lines i have marked ), when we are close to setting a bottom, without fail the following things happen: > the -dm goes high ( conveying the chance of reversal getting high ) - currently at 28.77 > the +dm goes low ( conveying the existing trend is exhausting itself ) - currently at 5.94 >> lastly, the ADX goes high showing the recent increase in the existing trend strength. - currently at 49 notice ADX can only go that high for a existing market cap and +dm cannot go below zero. So in short, we are here : and it will eventually become like below: the meeting point of 'X' formation above is the point of trend reversal. we are getting close to the setting a bottom (for this run in short term). and as i reiterated, i definitely cannot see XRP falling below 21 cents without extraordinary sell of of a whole market or something. Definitely not what happened today, will have to me at-least 3 times greater. Lastly, the white line indicator you see in the large graph above is the Williams "Accumulation Distribution" indicator , which is supporting the above observation as well. Hope this provides you a better and more rational perspective on this novice and irrational market. Kindly, R8
  7. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ** This is a short timely market update report. In out yesterdays report, we drew the following expectations: However, the uptrend did not start in the time span, and a lag was induced due to adverse effects of over 4.8 BIllion USD in BTC profit taking in a very short duration. XRP has largely continued building "strength" in terms of market interest and has stagnated at the existing levels. >> The fundamentals remain strong. >> The signals remain same, & I am still expecting a slow uptrend to 43 cents. as mentioned yesterday this is not going to be a smooth uptrend, and there is going to be decent selling that will keep the graph in check. >> The additional strength is positive for the asset. and here is exactly what happened during BTC profit taking Cycle 1 Drag Ratio = 10.30 / 4.90 = 2.10 Cycle 2 Drag Ratio = 05.36 / 2.53 = 2.12 Average drag due to bitcoin = 2.11x . In other words every 1% drop in bitcoin off late is causing 0.5 % drop in XRP. Strength impact = 0.6 / ( 4.55 * 100 ) = 13% In other words if bitcoins strength reduces by 10 points, XRP strength will be impacted by 1.3 points. this was 29% few months ago :-) . clear number proof of Bitcoins evading influence on XRP. anyways: Today's Updated View : All of yesterdays signals & probabilities remain valid. XRP perception has not changed at all. We are looking forward to a start of uptrend here. if it really had to drop, it shoudl have done by now. in other words those who have not sold even in yesterdays condition, woudl really not be selling in today's more positive condition. >> there is a Drag induced due to BTC profit taking that is already fading away. >> The Drag induced a lag, moving the projected uptrend forward. As the strength impact will be zero in a max of one day at current rates, and hence our expected uptrend shoudl now resuem in next day or two at most. I have seen few people (Ex: @Jun ) worry about increase of 300 million XRP supply over last 2 to 3 weeks impacting evaluation. In a single day on average over 400+ mil xrp gets traded (http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ripple/#markets) , and if it did impact, it would only set the price back by 12 to 24 hours and no more :-) .. for an economist observing inflow and outflow, it is very clear Ripple has been very responsible in letting new XRP distribution out and are doing very good job of making sure not to impact the price ( lest try to suppress it ) Study the numbers and be free of such unfounded worries in my humble and personal opinion. I wish us all a stable mind and hands so that we can act by intelligence, knowledge and data - instead of panic, fear and tempers. Kindly, R8
  8. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ** This is a short timely market update report. Summary: ~~~~~~~~ In my previous report I provided the following clear points on latest development. I am here by confirming that the P1 has reasserted itself and the base formation is now complete. althought this is not visible in the price yet, as i have explained before there is a well recognized lag that will fill in time. and i have also received signals confirming that a gradual uptrend to 37/38 cents is now about to begin. assuming no adverse and negative impacts occur, this uptrend shoudl officially starts its journey in 6 hours from now approximately ( Tokyo 8 AM 8th of June 2017 ). probabilities: ~~~~~~~~~~ P1. There is a 65% chance that XRP will now start its uptrend that can go all the way till 43+ cents in a short duration ( less then 10 days). P2. There is a 33% chance that XRP will slow downtrend to 22~24 cents, to Re-Establish 30 cents base for the THIRD time. P3. There are only 2% chances that XRP will fall below 21 US Cents. Now, IF P2 plays out, THEN : there is a very high chances (85%) that XRP will directly reclaim Momentum similar to May 12th 2017. In other words, IF XRP goes down to 22~24 cents and reforms the base at 30 cents for third time, XRP will directly takeoff to 73+ US Cents. At this point, personally, If i were a trader, I would take all hands of trading and never be out of position. I wish you all the best of your luck. Kindly, R8
  9. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ** This is a short timely market update report. Summary: ~~~~~~~ In the previous report we clearly discussed how we spotted a clear "base formation" with dis-proportionate sinusoidal dampening that earmarks building asset strength. We are fortunate that the base formation is completing much earlier then expected. I have received multiple confirmation signals, that at the current given rate, a strong base formation should complete by max 7th of June ( in 2 days ). this early completion is both good and bad as we will see in our probabilities. But before that a few important observation. Some Observation: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Recently i have clearly observed that the "strength" of XRP as an asset has increased. This is often not noticeable in price right away and there will be a lag depending on many parameters. However other parameters confirm this. another interesting observation is that the "strength" building is largely supported by Asian markets. >> What this means is "the next breakout is going to happen during Asian Market trading hours" and XRP has more strategic investors in Asia & Europe, relative to us since after 24 cents. Finally, another key observation is that the next "challenging range" for XRP as an asset has moved forward from 37/42 cents to 43/46 cents. This has further positive consequences with the long-wave ( but that's for some other time) Now the new probabilities: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ P1. There is a 50% chance that XRP will complete "Strong" base formation at 30 cents in next 2 days and directly take of to 43+ cents in a short duration. P2. There is a 47% chance that XRP will slow downtrend to 22~24 cents, to Re-Establish 30 cents base for the THIRD time. P3. There is only 3% chances that XRP will fall below 21 US Cents. Now, IF P2 plays out, THEN : there is a very high chances (85%) that XRP will directly reclaim Momentum similar to May 12th 2017. In other words, IF XRP goes down to 22~24 cents and reforms the base at 30 cents for third time, XRP will directly takeoff to 73+ US Cents. At this point, personally, If i were a trader, I would take all hands of trading and never be out of position. I wish you all the best of your luck. Kindly, R8
  10. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary: ~~~~~~~~ fortunately, the following high probability from the previous report has continued its successful play. Once again this is going to be a short 'signal update' report, never the less marks a key change in the asset strength. This report marks my observation of a successful base formation at 29 cents. However as some of my friends here are curious of learning some of the techniques and mathematics behind these signals, I am going to take some time today to explain a disproportionately" damped sinusoidal that often represents a strengthening base formation (under normal circumstances & subject to external influences). Hope you guys like this. in just last 48+ hours, the base median 29.2~ cents has asserted itself with the right slope (strength) every time a downtrend was attempted. the downtrend was caused by a "relatively" slower multi-sell, however the "reassertion" was caused by higher strength uni-buy. Example: the general equation for a damped sine wave is given by equal weights of cosine and sine components. However as the Instantaneous Amplitude is not same on above and below ( increasing strength ) - hence we will have to reverse the generalized equation into its constituent parts as follows: y(t)=A. e-(super)λt. [cos(ω.t+Φ )+sin(ω.t+Φ )] and then further say t= t1+t2 , t1 = instantaneous positive amplitude (upper part - larger) & t2= instantaneous negative amplitude (lower part - smaller). So you end up getting a equation with dual damping factor w.r.t t1 and t2 and equation can be changed as : y(t)=A. e-(super)λt. [cos(ω2.t2+Φ )+sin(ω1.t1+Φ )] in other words the sinusoidal "dampens" only on the lower side as strength is increasing in the base. the representation of this "disproportional" damping of a sine wave is shown below: So co-relating values of the graph, its very easy to notice the following decay into the median. As we can clearly see the base strengthening process that started on 2nd (as reported in previous report on 2nd ) , has now started to "close off" its strengthening process. Relative to the previous cycles and their timelines, it seems to close the base formation in next 2 to 3 days at max. As mentioned previously the absolute median for support at this level is at around 29.2 US cents. Probabilities: ~~~~~~~~~~ >> There is a 70% probability that XRP will complete forming a strong base at 29/30 cents range to the next leg up towards the 38 cents region. >> there is a 25 % probability that XRP will form a weak base and downtrend towards 21 cents strong/bounce support line. >> there is only 5% probability that XRP will drop below 21 cents. **Important note: Please note I reiterate that the 38 cents to 43 cents is a regional fight-off where expectations and perceptions clash. This is going to be marked by a heavy alternating graphs and will last for some time. XRP as an asset has to digest the difference in expectations and break 43 cents with strength. Above 43 cents is the "fly" zone. minimum for next range is 55 cents and maximum is the Fibonacci marker at 73 cents. this is not some psychic prediction, given the nature of market participants and nature of markets ( and the state of current investors ) - this is what has the "maximum probability" of playing out. Wish you all the very best of your luck. Kindly, R8
  11. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary: ~~~~~~~ Today is going to be a very short update, never the less marks a key turning point. The last report concluded the following as the highest probability: As there has not been significant changes in fundamentals and external influences, this case has played out successfully, and this report "marks" the beginning of "base setting process" at 29 US Cents. I expect the base setting process to stabilize. The range median for this base is around 29.1 to 29.7 cents. the absolute median is around 29.2 cents. hence this is the stable point for the next leg. Probabilities: ~~~~~~~~~~ >> There is a 60% probability that XRP will form a strong base at 29/30 cents range to the next leg up towards the 38 cents region. >> there is a 25 % probability that XRP will form a weak base and downtrend towards 21 cents strong/bounce support line. >> There is a 10% probability that XRP will start its leg up to 38 cents resistance without forming a strong base. (not good for support characteristics) >> there is only 5% probability that XRP will drop below 21 cents. **Important note: Please note that the 38 cents to 43 cents is a regional fight-off where expectations and perceptions clash. This is going to be marked by a heavy alternating graphs and will last for some time. XRP as an asset has to digest the difference in expectations and break 43 cents with strength. Above 43 cents is the "fly" zone. minimum for next range is 55 cents and maximum is the Fibonacci marker at 73 cents. Wish you all the very best of your luck. Kindly, R8
  12. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : NO information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary ~~~~~~~ The previous post, concluded clearly that in short-term, XRP was at cross-roads waiting for further signal to decide movement, momentum and direction. This possibility was weighted at a high rate of 68% and has indeed materialized. one important note at this point is to remind all my friends here, these are not predictions & are more of prognosis based on current market conditions shown by market activity. in other words this is a apparent probability and not a crystal ball. many times they work, many times some unexpected event changes the course. with that said, I have been studying a few events and co-relating them to get a better picture. the results have been very interesting & form key content of today's report. VERY important insight from May 26/27th+ BTC Sell-off ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PRE Sell-Off BTC Average Market share = ( 52.27% of 80.5 Billion USD ) = 42.07 Billion USD POST Sell-Off BTC Average Market share has stabilized @ ( 45.67% of 76.7 Billion USD ) = 35.02 Billion USD Conclusion 1: total money invested in BTC today is 7.09 Billion USD less. Where did this money go ? Lets see, the only dominant asset that has increased in its market share is ETH. PRE Sell-Off ETH Average Market share = ( 19.80% of 80.5 Billion USD ) = 15.93 Billion USD POST Sell-Off ETH Average Market share has stabilized @ ( 25.92% of 76.7 Billion USD ) = 19.88 Billion USD So, ETH share has increased by 3.95 Billion USD. Did all of this come from BTC money ? Nope, (13.71% of 80.5) - (11.40% of 76.7) = 11.04 - 8.74 = 2.3 Billion USD has flown from XRP to ETH. Ignoring the change money from other coins moving backward as it is not going to change the meaning of the equations, we can Conclude : out of 7.09 Billion BTC money, Only 1.65 Billion USD has flown into ETH (also others, but negligible) . INSIGHT 1 : 5.44 Billion USD worth of money from BTC is gone for good (at-least for the time being). BTC market share is shrinking, while people are misled to the illusion of its price. It is very clear some some planned group of BTC investors have liquidated and en-cashed their FIAT. All the while managing to keep the BTC price relatively stable. How is this possible? while market share reduces but the prices are kept somewhat high.. very simple and very mathematical - somewhere the supply is being temporarily reduced. Someone is taking this risk hoping enough new investors will come in time. Who can this be ? This cannot be an ordinary investor nor this is looking like a organic pattern. so this HAS to be someone with systemic holdings. hence, I personally think this is either a large holder or a large mining group. This is very important to understand, BTC is in a mirage with nice prices to show off, but is getting hollowed & emptied from within. whoever is enabling this, is hoping for lots of new investors to fill in over time, and holding back supply till then. IF enough new investors don't show up - they WILL BE FORCED increase supply sometime. Everything depends upon how LONG they can hold and play this game. perhaps they will hold supply for enough length of time for prices to stabilize ... 50% chances at best ... and the other 50% is they will fail. hope BTC investors out there, especially the new ones do not become the sacrificial lamb. I wish safety. Now lets get back to XRP ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ By now it is aptly clear that XRP trends were changed by influences not core to XRP fundamentals or outlook. Largely comprising of BTC Selloff & Volatility, post consensus ETH outlook appreciation & general nature of crypto space. However, XRP fundamentals are literally unchanged and if anything have greatly improved with recent demos bringing XRP's payment potential to limelight. Only thing is there is a lag in realization. Seems like some potential is easy to understand but some are in a way a bit more abstract and the "masses" take time to "get it". But history is proof, awareness bursting out is purely a function with time variant. At some point every bit of this revealed potential will get full attention. In short, if you guys being core community understand it before others do, its your early-bird opportunity right there. and I am not even guessing on this. facts are all over this forum, with latest developments and documents to verify for everybody. Finally time for some technicals ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ since 31st of May 6 AM. - at last XRP has started to strengthen albeit slowly, but in a stable manner. The following is the key and important summary on XRP markets: Clearly the process of taking strategic positions in XRP has "resumed". Market cap has resumed its uptrend from 9.70 to 10.80, an increase by 0.384 Billion USD ( 384 Million USD ). This strengthening is almost entirely contributed by USD Fiat. The other currencies investing in XRP are Euro and JPY. The currencies that are withdrawing and reducing their share in XRP markets are CNY & BTC, while KRW has been literally constant (in a surprising manner). What does it say about XRP ? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For once it is really great to see, XRP being held well merely with the support of EURO and USD. This means its dependence on BTC is slowly but very surely decreasing in a linear fashion. At the current rate of decrease, in less then 14 months BTC will lose almost all of its power to influence XRP. New US and Japan money is indeed flowing into the markets and recent data has clearly confirmed it ( no need to speculate). Key Takeaway: in some ways this has taken off much fear from me personally, when i see a panic sell next time, i know XRP can hold itself very well, in-spite of some negative influences from BTC and others. further most certainly, it is not going to collapse, but merely suffer a significant price drop perhaps. It is opportunities like this that reveal relatively "more fundamental" strength in an asset. Probabilities: ~~~~~~~~~ >> There is a 65% probability that XRP will improve the current strengthening process & continue gradual uptrend to 29/30 cents range to form a 'base'. >> there is a 30 % probability that XRP will arrest its strengthening process and initiate a gradual;l downtrend to 14 cents. >> there is only 5% probability that XRP will drop below 14 cents. *** It is very hard - to maintain perspective during sentiment shifts, to stay in the central calm during the storm, to act on fundamentals during panic selloff's, and to separate signals from noise. time and again those who rely on the underlying use-cases & fundamentals always ride the storm and come out winning. I wish all of us good luck. *** Kindly, R8
  13. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ** Disclaimer 03 : To remind a general market sentiment, do NOT trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Novice markets are always very turbulent until mass adoption and maturity. Definitely NOT for the faint hearted. ** Important Note : This post is sharing of my personal opinion and learning, and no information in this post is intended to aid short term/ day and/or swing trading. All summary projections are from few months to a few years in range. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary ~~~~~~~ The probabilities mentioned in previous posts here mentioned 29 cents as a strong support line and 26 cents as bounce line. Evidently I have been proven wrong by the market (at-least in the short term movements). needless to say I have been studying and trying to understand the recent changes in XRP markets. My main focus has been the general market perception of the asset, asset class, demand dynamics, causes and lastly, nature of this drop post consensus 2017. Change in Broader market conditions. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ One thing that is very apparent is the broader market conditions have changed. to summarize in short and succinctly, S&P & Nasdaq both hit all time highs. Especially on May 17th, S&P recorded a new high (after 6 months of positive growth on consecutive mom's ) and made history. This was in my opinion a key trigger that changed sentiments and market outlook for those who were vary of the global stock markets. However that was not the only history, S&P 500 after making a new historic high, dropped below its 50 day moving average on the same day. causing a huge confusion in the market outlooks. To be precise when S&P/Nasdaq both made new highs, many bearish weights started to reconsider their position, however by the time they started changing their direction it surprised them again with a significant drop breaking the 50 day moving average. add to this the Eurozone Markit PM index also held at 6 highs high + Germany & France PMI respectively performed as well. and lastly, all of this after Apple hit a record high on May 5th. So much about the traditional markets. whats the point ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ There has been a clear & sudden change on altcoin markets generally and Money has moved out. The huge swings in the market cap changing in billions every few hours is a clear sign of this. But what is interesting is, this seems to be a part of a large move and not specific to Altcoins. If we observe carefully there is a class of assets that have lost money. At the same time, and almost in the same manner. There is a clear pattern here. Some of the significant examples include : UVXY ( also other VIX Based - Fear Index ), EDZ (Developing Markets) etc. UVXY EDZ Inference: Very clearly seems like there was a point of change in market perception where it felt as if the wider markets are the best place to be, and most importantly hedging and speculative money that would look for alternatives like hedging and altcoins etc. have flown back ! Similarly & secondly, Observation 2: Inside the Crypto Markets, because of massive and continued rally of BTC, especially when significant portion of markets sentiment thought it was about to slow down has moved significant money back from altcoins to BTC. Lastly, Observation 3: With respect to ripple, post consensus there has been a little change in sentiment on Ripple, Due to some large partnership announcement and such news from ETH etc, which essentially have large cap of common-investors ( although its not ) Hence my understanding is : All these three above mentioned developments, have in a timely manner formed special constellation to effect and cause sell of in Ripple and close related asset classes. Have fundamentals and prospects of Ripple changed to support of sell-off ? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ We can all agree that altcoins are still in a phase where they have huge promise and large potential - However most of them are yet to be realized. Now having that general fundamental fact out of the way, in the altcoin market, Ripple has in my view 'the' strongest potential, 'the' widest market access and 'the' largest use case in terms of monetary value next to none. It is largely just the sudden fear due to these various fortunate/unfortunate circumstances that has caused this sell-out. Fundamentals and potential remains same. To put it simply, hot money has moved out. investment that could not be shaken have remained sound. This leads to some of my new learning/observation on crypto-markets. ( besides as we speak BTC is down to 1900 USD range from its high of 2500+ USD ). My New Learning: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Seems like the Weak support lines in crypto markets are weaker then their traditional counterparts. The strong support lines are not as strong either. This is perhaps due tot he underlying reason that the market is novice and so are its investors. We sure seem to have a large ratio of shaky hands without fundamental understanding and/or investing discipline. While this might look like a bad thing and might indeed be very bad for the undisciplined investors, this indeed is a sort of a gift in disguise for strategic investors. the easier it is to shake out loose fruits, the better remaining fruits ripen. What this essentially does is shakes out a huge volume of investors and whats left are strategic investors ( who don't fall for sudden panic attacks ), and we all know this is the precursor for significant up-legs ahead. my personal take on whats to come: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ To summarize few known points: 1.) This was largely due to induced panic and change of 'sentiment' acting together. 2.) The fundamentals remain strong, potential investment use-case remains intact. nothing real has changed for the worse, no contracts have been broken etc. 3.) the asset is left with a "post panic" bounce. we can at-least say that the remaining unstable and highly volatile traders are minimal if any after the 'shale-out' Now something a bit more interesting: The broader market looks stable, but we don't seem to have room for much higher growth. Earnings remain positive, however housing, real estate and few other important indicators are swinging. This was one of the reasons why S&P could not hold its new highs and had to retrace below 50 day moving average ( significant ). In short it seems like the broader market is either coming to saturation or are in a bit of confusion. The classical indicator for these have been hedge assets like Gold and Silver, and as we can see, both have gone up as shown below, in-spite of the S&P/Nasdaq highs and bullion did not have a significant sell-off (which would be the case if the new found market growth sentiment has strength). This tells a clear tale. There are significant portions of investor crowd, who are "not buying it". GLD So what does all this mean to me: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For me this is simple. This sell of was pure panic and noise. It had no fundamental backing. The only reinforcement was multiple things joining hands at the right time. The downtrend was a natural consequence of sentiment change in broader markets. However, the Consensus 2017, ETH news with more bank partnerships etc added more fuel to this fire and accelerated this unfounded selloff. In short, i expect this to be temporary phenomena before XRP as asset regains strength due to its unaltered fundamentals and use-case potential. How fast do i expect reversal and recovery: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Undoing sentiment change needs a signal that reminds of the shallow sell off, and most importantly reminds and enforces the fundamentals. The XRP market at this moment is looking for that signal. IN the coming days/weeks XRP markets ( perhaps due to the relatively more temperamental nature of investors/traders ) needs this signal. in form of news, details, events, progress updates etc. Such a timely news and updates will remind investors of its underlying fundamentals and also reinforce its potential - reversing course. Hence, we will have to wait for this to happen. The sooner the better. Any other important points i wish to share ? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Yes Something that has come to my observation and also has been surprising. A few weeks before I observed and reported how traditional market money was moving into crypto , albeit in small trickles. I was sort of happy about it. However the devil was and still is in the details. The recent events and above explained nature clarifies that the "traditional market" money that is moving in - is of the highly speculative kind. not the stable investor kind. Which sure makes sense as these high speculators are the first risk takers. So in some ways the first money moving in from traditional markets belong to bad - oops I mean highly speculative hands.. Although bad in short term, it is also true that these are the early birds who open the gates for other more strategic traditional-market investors to follow suit. Short term probabilities ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **Note : Please not these probabilities are as per current market conditions. Market moving events like consensus, expectation failures etc can always change them. This is what my guess is, in case the underlying sentiments and fundamentals remains unchanged- This is VERY important to understand. >> There is a 68% probability that XRP will wait for enforcing news&signals, and continue stabilize around 18 cents area for a while. In case of no further signals , It can downtrend all the way to 13 cents. >> there is a 27 % probability that XRP will continue setting a new base here and strengthen all the way to 30 cents. >> there is only 5% probability that XRP will drop below 13 cents. *** It is very hard - to maintain perspective during sentiment shifts, to stay in the central calm during the storm, to act on fundamentals during panic selloff's, and to separate signals from noise. time and again those who rely on the underlying use-cases & fundamentals always ride the storm and come out winning. I wish all of us good luck. *** Kindly, R8
  14. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Continuing from yesterdays report, we all had a major surprise awaiting, that presented us this early morning US time around 2 AM today, we broke important "strong support" line at 30 cents, and found "quick bounce" at "hold support" lines of 28 cents. How come ? what changed, somethings should have challenged the fundamental nature of the asset you say ? you are not far from the truth. As i see it ~~~~~~~~ at around 12.30 AM (1.30 hours before the dumping and panic sell ) this news broke - https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/05/22/ethereum-enterprise-alliance-adds-86-new-members-including-dtcc-state-street-and-infosys-and/ it is easy to see how it would have rattled a set of believers who depended on "bank partnerships" being fundamental to XRP, which is true. the article never mentioned overtake of ripple's usecase, nothing about settlement etc, however the headline was enough for fear to kick in. With his fear, we should have just tested the strong support lines at 30 cents. however, when the panic snow flake started rolling, there were a few market forces that sort of ( for the lack of words ) - happily made use of it. We can of-course blame it all on happy co-incidence and chance, however this is what happened. Polo - Co-incidentally had some "strange" issue where one could submit only selling orders and not buying ones on XRP. well that's easy to see, when only selling is allowed how it influences the market. I think for sometime, even the market making was lagging between exchanges. hence, XRP has to take bounce-support at 28, briefly hitting the range of 27/28. and Ended up "testing" bounce support and coming out strong. as we speak it is stably located at 29/30 cents support range awaiting "trend" signals. enough of that, so whats next ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ While that story has been interesting, but is multiple times more interesting is that i have been seeing symptoms of long-wave signals on XRP. Long-wave signals are signals that marks corners of a long fibbo fractal points that resemble various similar patterns recognizable in nature. the pattern is well recognized throughout the ecosystems. As unbelievable as it might sound, i had decided to just go with my boring analysis, in-spite of all the good news we knew is about to come. However charts have a way of "saying" things and this 'unfortunate' looking event actually confirmed the long wave in a matter of 3 hours. A fundamentally strong asset that has "enough" interactivity and well defined purpose with life ( silver, gold, grains, USD, JPY ) all of them have various phases marked on long wave. If an asset shows long-wave patterns, it literally means the asset has more depth and meaning and all such assets follow some very specific phases , almost unfailingly. Here i present a basic phase diagram of a strong asset on long-wave. in other words, the required 'story-line' will fall in place .. time and again this has been proven one of them is called stochastic resonance , second stochastic recurrence and the last is called stochastic protrusion , i have picked this up from the a great quant-master , who is also my teacher .. what it means is if one of them say stochastic resonance falls in place, the other two all automatically math what is required, in other words all those 3 variables always and always support each other .. its as though they look like 3, but are the same force inside... and one starling observation on the asset it is observed is, the asset gains new purpose, scope and importance. it grows - the asset will never be the same ever again , this point is usually irreversible for an asset evaluation and for this reason, no quants that understand the theorems of market mavericks "short" stochastic forces Without boring you with too much details, ( also I do not want to leave hints of tools i use ), I am able to confirm that XRP is at the end of "mass - awareness maturing" stage. This is literally always bound to map on Wave 4 of wave analysis & momentum type analysis for such an asset - ( which also represents third level expansion on a avg network effect node-tree , considering 3 as avg node connectivity - think Facebook - social media - word getting out ). I am presenting the final confirming signals below. one will have to look at a larger chart and see for Phi * 1.66 ratio long stable lines, and the ratio by which every support + up-leg keeps decreasing. The final confirmations on long wave count are marked as 'star' And now, the big perspective ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ , Due to this report which is very important for long term holders in my personal opinion, I am going to skip the short term day-to-day predictions and probabilities for today and tomorrow ! the chart should have made the case i am proposing very clear and as always being extremely conservative I have considered the minimum values that XRP will need to discharge its responsibilities as a global value carrier with ease ! At this point i want to remind you all on what Dave said us in the chat a day before, about XRP to be able to move realistic value needing to be able to act as collateral of equal value - more or less. Also lastly, if you have 3 mins, i would suggest you watch this beautiful video for deeper meaning. I think in coming weeks we will enter a new phase and we will not be seeing anything below Kindly, R8
  15. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary ~~~~~~~ 2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 21, 2017: the XRP asset strength has been spectacular, especially given the turbulent nature of crypto markets. The previous trends mentioned in yesterdays report stand firmly and are in play. We had approximated the soft up-trend to slowly go towards 38/39 cents area in 4 to 5 days, and given current circumstances, the play remains valid as well. 2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 21, 2017: However one thing that has changed is the digestion-strength. The Asset is practically holding like a rock at 32/33 cents. The strong support line has increased from 29 to 30 cents, and most importantly, it is holding well in spite of sizable closing positions. This is clear evidence of strong fundamentals and great long term dynamics. 2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 21, 2017: One important point to note about such strong foundation and digestion of gains without loosing grounds – It often offers great platform for take-off to new & higher regions. I would not be surprised if this strengthening along with some market moving good news, can launch XRP to the next region beyond 47 cents, breaking the 42 cent take-off barrier. 2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 21, 2017: Hence, I am going to reiterate my suggestion from yesterday, that at this time even short term traders should not be out of position and hold the asset. Probabilities ~~~~~~~~~ >> There is a 55% probability that the up-trend will stabilize and continue up to 39 cents, for a face-off at 39 to 42 cents range. >> There is a 40% probability that XRP will consolidate strongly, strengthen its base support lines & directly enter wave 4 strata which is above 42 cents. >> There is only 05% probability that XRP will drop below 30 cents. Under current circumstances i am unable to see XRP evading below 30 cents. New learning ~~~~~~~~~~ Seems to me, that crypto markets are in some ways immature and philosophically motivated. Also seems like Crypto investors in general are easily swayed by mis-information campaigns and planned propaganda. I am certain that over time, maturity of investors (generally speaking) will improve after rounds of disillusionment. However at this time it does remain on the temperament side. I have adjusted my equations accordingly for the short term. I wish all of you wisdom, stable hands, stable mind, health, happiness & lastly the very best of what your respective fates has in store for you. Kindly, R8
  16. ** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only ** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary ~~~~~~~~ 2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 20th, 2017: The Slow up-trend mentioned elaborately in yesterday's report has now begun and is in progress. It is important to note that we are already in the wave 4 territory and these patterns mark wave 4 preliminary activity. 2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 20th, 2017:As such, as today is largely trend continuation, there are not many updates. This up trend is expected to continue all the way till 38/39 cents range, where I expect the trend to be challenged for good. Probabilities (as per current conditions) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >> There is a 65% probability that the up-trend will stabilize and continue to its mentioned range of 39 cents. >> There is a 35% probability that XRP will drop back to find solid support at 28 cents. Under current circumstances and market sentiments, I am not able to see XRP dropping below 28 cents. An important observation ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ As mentioned yesterday, the relative size of other traditional markets are manifold times larger then the crypto space. As the crypto space gets more mainstream, even small percents of money moving into the space, can lead to massive appreciation of prices. This is especially true for assets like XRP that have very strong fundamentals and a clear global scale use-case. Hence, I expect massive appreciation of assets in general, and XRP in particular in coming months, which makes provision for many wave jumps and sudden price swings. But strategic investors in a way reap the benefits without having to worry too much. However, those who are trading, be very careful as the probability that you will be out of position and be left behind is very high. There are many good chances that you will think of timing the market, get out of position for a better entry and will never be able to get back. In my personal opinion, at this point 'at the least' a mid term 3 to 4 months hold is highly recommended even for swing and daily traders. Also to offer general help, I will be providing some general 'relative evaluation' for various traditional markets like stocks, bonds, bullion, real estate etc and also projecting the 'minimum' amount of money that we can expect to move into crypto space in coming months. this should be very helpful and interesting, so definitely look forward. Some rumors ~~~~~~~~~~ Also, XRP internal community that I am very much part of, is dense with rumors of a major breaking news next week .Please note the above analysis is based on current market conditions, momentum, sentiment and mathematics. Any major good news about partnerships etc breaking next week, can throw cold water on my analysis for good. I would be one of the most happy persons were that to happen and I expect it will. Just something to keep back of your mind. Some new learning ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I am currently amazed to discover that regional politics is very much part of crypto space as well. Bitcoin mining seems to have polarized largely in China, while XRP seems to have its major supporters in Japan, US, India, UAE, Europe and UK. Korea is slightly diverting towards XRP, but has significant interests in BTC as well. The markets are turning and it has been very interesting to watch regions take sides in accordance with their existing political power structures. I wish all of you, wisdom and the very best your respective fate's have to offer. Kindly, R8
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