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  1. Hi, been lurking since february 2017. I am a big believer in the XRP tech mainly because it, unlike many others has a massive use-case but I am concerned about the valuations that many people in this forum throw around. At the start of 2018 the XRP token reached 3.75 dollars, an event which made Chris Larsen one of the wealthiest men on the planet with a net worth of 20 billion dollars. A lot of people are highly confident that XRP will reach double digits and even triple digits. If XRP were to rise to 100 dollars it would raise Chris Larsens' net worth to 533 billion dollars. I find this very alarming since things such as this just do not happen and are beyond the realm of wishful thinking. Now some of you will argue that this only makes him that rich on paper and that he would never be able to sell his tokens without the price plummeting which is why you cannot compare him to people like Jeff Bezos. Not spreading FUD but just voicing my concerns and happy to be proven wrong!
  2. @Hodor and @zerpian, this is for y'all. Price of XRP regressed against total crypto market cap and wallets. Nothing we probably didn't already know which is that when people buy into cryptos in general, they buy some XRP, and the price of XRP rise sharply when a bunch of new wallets are created. Sample size of 13 here, but if we decide later that it's worth running more history, or adding in more variables, or both, just send me the data and I'll regress it if you want. This kind of analysis will really on be significant when XRP is used as a true currency valued on utility as opposed to spec pricing, but it's fun for stats guys. I mean, look at those p-values and r-squared, especially for the wallet creation figures.
  3. So let me start by saying that I have been a member on here for months but I lost my pw so I just made a new account. I read most threads and I am a RIPPLE Supporter til the end! I have alot and I am team Hodl! I have a question about the market cap that needs to be cleared up.... I'm reading that it would be almost impossible for ripple to reach 50 cause it's market cap would be bigger than btc and etherirum combined what do you think??? People have all different opinions when it comes to market cap... Can someone explain it, and please dont say some bs like "ppl said that at 20 cents and look at us now" I want a real answer Thanks Go Ripple
  4. I often see references to 'mass adoption' as being indispensable for something else to happen in crypto-land, but it seems to me the term itself lacks clarity and may mean very different things to different people. Conventionally, disruptive change diffuses from innovators, to early adopters, early majority, late majority, and eventually laggards. This would put 'mass adoption' as occurring somewhere during adoption by the late majority. Does this help? No? Perhaps it requires additional fleshing out. The phrase 'mass adoption' should be defined clearly at least in the two operational contexts -- retail and institutional -- which, in the main, concern speculators in crypto. These contexts are dissimilar, and failing to distinguish clearly between the two can trip us up when analyzing and discussing expectations, or when comparing 'coins.' Given the reigning confusion in crypto, we may end up comparing apples to shoes inadvertently. For example, I have thought more than once that the market cap rankings completely fail to distinguish between the purpose or target sector of the various coins / tokens. This is key to understanding the value (or lack of it) of the market cap idea and could make comparisons (and rankings) more sensible. An opportunity is being missed to clear the existing fog in crypto with the lack of an equivalent to stock asset classes or sectors (large cap, small cap, sector-focused, etc.) Traditional finance has mis-grouped all cryptos in a single 'new asset class', while it is clear by now that most of these have disparate objectives and might as well be in different sub-classes altogether -- cryptos being in fact software projects, regardless of people wanting to think of them as shiny 'coins' in their competitive quest for a quick fortune. With Ripple officially focused on the institutional clientele, it could well be that having a half dozen to a dozen adopters using Rapid/XRP this year would suffice to constitute massive progress, although not, technically speaking, mass adoption. Not when you consider the 11,000+ banks worldwide, or even the 100-200 Ripple partners. And yet, it could still be enough to sway price significantly, and propel it to new heights in sustainable fashion. The same could be said about a single endorsement by one of the Top 5 Central Banks. This then raises the question: is 'mass adoption' really a prerequisite to price appreciation? Or, might it be more suitable as a lagging indicator than a leading one? I tend of think of regulation as a leading indicator of where the sector may be headed and of the degree of adoption as a lagging one. But perhaps that's just me. Retail adoption by individuals using XRP to buy goods is an entirely different animal and would probably have to be in the tens or hundreds of millions to qualify on the basis of chosen populations. Something related to sports betting, perhaps, as the recently announced football crypto-initiative being launched in the UK, with worldwide scope and appeal, might just be that catalyst. I think this announcement was not appreciated properly by many here as to its potential impact (ex. fast payout of bets on a worldwide scale using Ripple.) Whichever of the two -- institutional or retail -- seems more impressive at first glance on the basis of numbers, operational definitions do matter and can help us in focusing on reasonable goals as speculators and in comparing apples to apples. Food for thought? Again, just one man's opinion.
  5. Ok guys, in the world of Ripple and cryptocurrency in general I guess I am a novice or a newbie. However, I'd like to just make this post as a general, easy to understand chat about its projected value over the coming 12 months of 2018. Please correct me in my outline to tell me if i am correct or not. This is basically a summing up of what I have heard people say and argue on the internet and social media as to why XRP will boost upwards, I am merely trying to set this all out in one place so that you guys can tell me if it is at all correct as to how 2018 is suppose to develop for XRP. My simple way of looking at it is thus..... Let us assume firstly that Ripple keeps growing and that XRP also keeps growing in its usage, actual practical uses in real world, real-time transactions. Let us assume therefore that investors investing in XRP grows and the price keeps going up. I know this is a lot of assuming but my discussion really centers around the market cap argument. Many people say that XRP cannot possibly go up to $1000 in price and that even $100 would be a massive step. This argument is based on the maths that if you use a circulating supple of 39billion XRP, a price of $100 would give $3.9Trillion. As I am typing this the whole market cap of all cryptocurrency is around $600Billion? So we can see that XRP reaching $100 actually DOES sound a bit crazy in the current climate. However, the history of Bitcoin tells us that a price of almost $20,000 achieved a few weeks ago would have seemed absolutely crazy 12 months ago, and the market cap 12 months ago was tiny compared to now. So where does this all leave us? Firstly, people in general say that there are many many billions of dollars yet to enter the cryptocurrency market, due to it being fairly new. Analysts all over the web are saying that this could even reach trillions of dollars if financial institutions and pension providers and banks actually start investing in cryptocurrency. Secondly, Bitcoin is seen as many as impractical for real time, real-world uses in its current form unless it innovates. This leaves a gap which XRP seems to have been trying to position itself to fill and could theoretically have a head start almost in this respect come the start of 2018. Thirdly, XRP has so far been difficult to purchase and a boost in price will happen as it is added to more exchanges, especially Coinbase. Fourth, IF (maybe a big IF?) XRP actually starts to be deployed by banks to facilitate cross border transfers of money in real-time then many many banks will stock up on XRP and HOLD it to ensure they have a large supply. This in turn will actually REDUCE the circulating supply and by the forces of supply and demand this will increase the price to those investors wanting to put money into XRP. Because of this reduced circulation caused by banks etc stocking up on XRP in order to use it the price of XRP may well shoot up to $100 or more? Does this make sense at all to you good people who understand XRP better than me? Thanks guys and Happy New Year. Regards OWEN
  6. Can anyone pelase tell me the difference between these market cap readings? Does it means that we actually surpassed bitcoin’s market cap? Sources: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ https://ripple.com/xrp/market-performance/ https://charts.bitcoin.com/
  7. I copy and pasted this earlier into the ZERPning thread but I feel this may be a better area to post this in. I keep seeing tons of posts on Market Cap and just thought I would share with the rest of everyone here. I give credit to Johnny David off the XRP investors groups for this great explanation. Not sure if it's been posted on this forum ( I have not seen it ) but great read to clarify market cap. See below Here’s your answer you’ve all been waiting for... It seems the main argument against XRP going up to amounts like $100 is that the market cap would have to increase to TRILLIONS to achieve that. Whilst it makes sense to think like this, it is totally incorrect. Crytos are not inherently like stocks. In the stock market we quote the market cap daily, a very important figure. However the distinction between the two are ALL stocks in a company are OWNED. Apple is worth 877.40 BILLION @$170 a share. EVERY SHARE OF THAT COMPANY IS ALREADY BOUGHT BY SOMEONE. There isn't XX amount of shares just hanging about waiting for someone to buy, you must buy from someone who already owns the share and that is how the market cap is formed. Crytos are not all OWNED, they have not all been bought. XRP hardly has anything in circulation right now. Even bitcoin, would have a market cap of maybe $30 billion max in the right context since a vast majority of the coins have not been sold, and yet they are still being accounted for in the market cap. I feel no one in the cryto world seems to understand this and I face palm daily reading posts about market cap in the crypto world. This is why XRP reaching $100 is not a dream, its a reality which can happen within 2 years if the plan is successful. First, what is the definition of Market Cap? It's: (number of coins) TIMES (current price per coin) What does this all mean for market cap? Who gives a damn what 100 billion total coins TIMES 20 cents equals, it's meaningless. The value of XRP only depends on the market penetration and the number of coins that can be utilized. That's it. The meaningful calculation for coin cap valuation can only be 5 billion * 20 cents = $1 billion dollars (again, plug in your own numbers), a far cry from the insane $9 billion bloated figure everyone is using. Now that we've eliminated the gross exaggeration of XRP market cap, the even trickier part becomes determining market penetration maximums. It's easy to say, well, SWIFT transfers trillions of dollars per year. So what! It's completely irrelevant what happens over a year. What is relevant is how much money is in transit at any given point in time. Let's say $500 million for fun. That means if SWIFT was replaced with XRP, then at any given moment, $500 million worth of XRP would be in use. This would add further demand on the 5 billion utilized coins, so add $500 million DIVIDED BY 5 billion utilized coins = 10 cents to XRP's value, for a total of 30 cents. Not what you were hoping for? But wait, there's more... Replacing SWIFT in my mind, is a credibility strategy by Ripple, not necessarily its golden egg. Once XRP gets this exposure, it will have its foot in the door and XRP will rapidly cascade into literally every other use case (of which there are infinite) that money itself currently faciilties, and at the same time radically accelerating each of those paradigms, and creating so many new ones we have yet to conceive because old-fashioned money couldn't support new ideas. Let's look at a few others: RETAIL: Who wouldn't want to aim their smartphone camera at an on-screen QR code at the cash register, and then be done. No more credit cards, no more remembering dozens of PINs and passwords, no more trying to re-activate your credit card from suspected fraudulent activity because the banks are knee-jerking at your irregular purchase of a smoothie. To hell with banks. Click, done. Gazillions of dollars. This is a much larger market than SWIFT in my opinion, solely based on the frequency of transactions that will require much more overall XRP to be in flight at any given moment. VISA, the writing is on the wall buddy... ADOPTION: Imagine when people, businesses, governments even, stop always converting back to fiat and just staying in XRP. This becomes the 'currency flight' turning point, and valuation will go into the hundreds to billions (DIVIDED by the number of utilized coins). Multiple dollars per coin. EDIT: a lot of people misunderstand this statement as replacing fiat altogether, that's not where I was going with it. It just means they are increasingly using it, and it just makes sense to hang onto XRP instead of quickly in-and-out LENDING: Here's where solid figures go out the door. With solid reserve lending laws already in place, and if adoption is widespread, more and more XRP will be needed, and that need magnified by the banks tendency to lend wealth they don't actually have (mortgages? CDOs anyone?). INVESTING: If you think lending is big, how about the huge margin investing that we've seen in investment firms. It get's maniacal EMERGING COMMERCE: Micropayments, robotic payments, and completely unknown revenue streams that couldn't exist without XRP, much like Uber couldn't exist without smartphones. SPECULATION: Riding on top of it all, there are people that understand the above, and will be in early, and accordingly the price will ride the speculative bubble before these ideas are set in stone, so theoretically, the price of XRP will perpetually be artificially inflated in anticipation of its eventual justification as the new markets embrace it. Suffice it to say, that the demand for XRP can easily eek into the trillions, even quadrillions, which DIVIDED by 5 billion, is many thousands of dollars per XRP. However dreamy and seemingly impossible these figures appear, that my friends is the potential market for XRP, beyond comprehension. So take your market cap and toss it in the garbage where it belongs. Will it hit any of these values? Who knows.. but what's important to recognize is that XRP doesn't answer to stupidity like: A TIMES B EQUALS Maximum, nor does it answer to Bitcoin, or SWIFT, or even the entire wealth of the world; it makes its own value. You’re Welcome📈🚀
  8. Here I hope to highlight the complete fallacy of using the Market Cap for anything useful, particularly predicting future maximums, or even as a cross-crypto comparative tool. Disclaimer: As always, all of this is my opinion, so if you take issue with any of my statements, find the data to refute me, but don't expect me to 'jump' to your commands of 'prove it'. First, what is the definition of Market Cap? It's: (number of coins) TIMES (current price per coin) That's it. This simple formula, probably because of its simplicity, has lead to a rabid adoption by the general masses as some form of meaningful indicator. No serious investor acknowledges this sensationalist figure for technical analysis purposes, with perhaps the exception of its psychological effects on inexperienced traders. At this time, it's arguable that most of the money that sits in crypto is speculative, meaning investors hoping for the value to increase, as opposed to actually using the coin for transfer of value (purchases, etc.). This pool of speculative investor money is approaching maturity in that the cat is out of the bag for the most part so most potential crypto investors have already positioned themselves in the market, thus the early phenomenal historical gains of the past years, are unlikely to be reproduced by speculation money alone, simply because those gains were mostly due to the increasing awareness of crypto. Therefore, the pool of crypto value, while still growing substantically and crypto investing continues its mainstream adoption, isn't going to grow exponentially until a categorically new infusion of wealth presents itself. For the time being, this only really leaves opportunity for speculator sentiment to 'shift' wealth to the latest and greatest crypto, but the total real wealth increase has slowed. Back to Market Cap. I wish to dispel the two notions I mentioned earlier: 1) Myth: Each coin's Market Cap can be used to compare against each other The problem with the Market Cap formula is it attempts to answer a very complex question with too few variables; that question being, "what is the relative value of this coin to its maximum value?" Tricky question, because few people ask the question, "what decides the maximum value?" Time and time again, many people will erroneously use the leading coin's (Bitcoin) market cap as some sort of indicator of maximum market cap value for any other coin. How does this make any sense? Particularly if the coins are for completely different use cases. Why does Bitcoin's market cap have any relevance to Ethereum's, or Ripple's? Well, it doesn't, whatsoever; but, this is the psychological barrier put in place, presumably from instinctual impetus given that we see Bitcoin all grown up, so Bitcoin's siblings can't get much bigger right? They're not kids, so the first step to clearing the nonsense of Market Cap from your mind, is that one coin's market cap has anything to do with another coin's, for the same reason your kid went to college while the neighbor's kid smoked pot all day. 2) Myth: Market Cap can be used to predict maximum value Here's the really tricky part, and will form the remainder of this explanation. First, these are the important data points that need to be considered: - The maximum total of coins that will ever exist - The number of destroyed coins - The total coins currently in existence - The number of hoarded/locked coins - The number of utilized/circulated coins (this includes active trading) - The maximum value of market penetration (SWIFT market, retail market, lending, etc.) All play a part in the current value of a coin. Without using all these factors involved in calculating the potential maximum price for a coin, you end up with gibberish, so let's try to put some real values at work for Ripple. These figures are very very rough, just to demonstrate their relationship, not actually predict a value. maximum that will ever exist: 100 billion destroyed coins: a few million currently existing : 100 billion (minus a few million destroyed coins) hoarded coins: 55 billion in lockup, billions more remaining in Ripple, Inc. another presumably 25 billion held by investors and FI's in hodl psychosis. Say the total is 95 billion. utilized coins: (currently existing) MINUS (hoarded/locked coins). Plugging in numbers: 100 billion - destroyed coins - hoarded/locked coins EQUALS APPROX 5 billion maximum value of market penetration at any one moment: say $1 billion for our current active traders Couple things I wish to point out here. First, why would I say $1 billion market penetration when billions can trade in a single day on exchanges? Well, if I give you $20, and you give me back $20, do I have $40 bucks now? No, of course not. That's why you have to pick a point in time that asks, how much XRP is being utilized for a purpose at this exact second, similarly to how an exchange determines value, point in time. That's why I chose $1 billion (a completely subjective number of course, plug in whatever you want). Second, the last parameter "market penetration" MUST be entirely compensated for by the total value of all the "utilized coins" simply because inactive/destroyed/locked coins don't contribute to the facilitating of the market penetration, only the utilized coins can do that. In other words, none of the other values matter. Therefore, the value of XRP = (market penetration) DIVIDED BY (# of utilized coins). In real numbers: $1 billion DIVIDED BY 5 billion coins = 0.20 cents per coin. Coincidence?? (Not really, I massaged the numbers of course). What does this all mean for market cap? Who gives a damn what 100 billion total coins TIMES 20 cents equals, it's meaningless. The value of XRP only depends on the market penetration and the number of coins that can be utilized. That's it. The meaningful calculation for coin cap valuation can only be 5 billion * 20 cents = $1 billion dollars (again, plug in your own numbers), a far cry from the insane $9 billion bloated figure everyone is using. Now that we've eliminated the gross exaggeration of XRP market cap, the even trickier part becomes determining market penetration maximums. It's easy to say, well, SWIFT transfers trillions of dollars per year. So what! It's completely irrelevant what happens over a year. What is relevant is how much money is in transit at any given point in time. Let's say $500 million for fun. That means if SWIFT was replaced with XRP, then at any given moment, $500 million worth of XRP would be in use. This would add further demand on the 5 billion utilized coins, so add $500 million DIVIDED BY 5 billion utilized coins = 10 cents to XRP's value, for a total of 30 cents. Not what you were hoping for? But wait, there's more... Replacing SWIFT in my mind, is a credibility strategy by Ripple, not necessarily its golden egg. Once XRP gets this exposure, it will have its foot in the door and XRP will rapidly cascade into literally every other use case (of which there are infinite) that money itself currently faciilties, and at the same time radically accelerating each of those paradigms, and creating so many new ones we have yet to conceive because old-fashioned money couldn't support new ideas. Let's look at a few others: RETAIL: Who wouldn't want to aim their smartphone camera at an on-screen QR code at the cash register, and then be done. No more credit cards, no more remembering dozens of PINs and passwords, no more trying to re-activate your credit card from suspected fraudulent activity because the banks are knee-jerking at your irregular purchase of a smoothie. To hell with banks. Click, done. Gazillions of dollars. This is a much larger market than SWIFT in my opinion, solely based on the frequency of transactions that will require much more overall XRP to be in flight at any given moment. VISA, the writing is on the wall buddy... ADOPTION: Imagine when people, businesses, governments even, stop always converting back to fiat and just staying in XRP. This becomes the 'currency flight' turning point, and valuation will go into the hundreds to billions (DIVIDED by the number of utilized coins). Multiple dollars per coin. EDIT: a lot of people misunderstand this statement as replacing fiat altogether, that's not where I was going with it. It just means they are increasingly using it, and it just makes sense to hang onto XRP instead of quickly in-and-out LENDING: Here's where solid figures go out the door. With solid reserve lending laws already in place, and if adoption is widespread, more and more XRP will be needed, and that need magnified by the banks tendency to lend wealth they don't actually have (mortgages? CDOs anyone?). INVESTING: If you think lending is big, how about the huge margin investing that we've seen in investment firms. It get's maniacal EMERGING COMMERCE: Micropayments, robotic payments, and completely unknown revenue streams that couldn't exist without XRP, much like Uber couldn't exist without smartphones. SPECULATION: Riding on top of it all, there are people that understand the above, and will be in early, and accordingly the price will ride the speculative bubble before these ideas are set in stone, so theoretically, the price of XRP will perpetually be artificially inflated in anticipation of its eventual justification as the new markets embrace it. Suffice it to say, that the demand for XRP can easily eek into the trillions, even quadrillions, which DIVIDED by 5 billion, is many thousands of dollars per XRP. However dreamy and seemingly impossible these figures appear, that my friends is the potential market for XRP, beyond comprehension. So take your market cap and toss it in the garbage where it belongs. Will it hit any of these values? Who knows.. but what's important to recognize is that XRP doesn't answer to stupidity like: A TIMES B EQUALS Maximum, nor does it answer to Bitcoin, or SWIFT, or even the entire wealth of the world; it makes its own value. Yes, I meant 'rabid'
  9. I've been thinking about this for quite some time now, and perhaps someone on here can help me to better understand the correlation. I understand that as the price per coin (ppc) increases, this in-turn will result in an increase in market cap (mc). What I don't understand is how this is actually calculated. I've read a couple things in price speculation, but nothing sound, really. I suppose that I'm trying to compare different cryptos at different ppc to get an idea of where the mc for XRP would be if it doubled / tripled / x1000...? Maybe that's my problem, and there's no comparison between different currencies. If that's the case, when a new crypto is introduced based on say... Ethereum's platform, do those use the same calculation basis for value of ppc and mc?
  10. Can someone please provide me a logical reason why they think the market cap of a particular cryptocurrency is a measure of anything? Market caps are for companies not currency! And whomever started posting the market caps of crypto never knew what they were talking about. It's a pointless measure! When discussing currency pairs and the value of one currency to another, market cap is useless. Should we start talking about the market cap of USD/JPY or USD/CHF or Euro/USD? What is the market cap of the USD$$?? What is the market cap of GBP? Make sense??? Crypto currency can easily rise in value infinitely without concern for market cap, so please stop talking sbout it and comparing the market cap of crypto to the market cap of companies. If you have a reason why it's important please let me know.
  11. What's that nimiq that just surpassed xrp on coin market cap with a whopping 112 524% 24h gain? https://coinmarketcap.com/
  12. Coinmarketcap.com is currently showing all XRP in circulation and placing ripple in second place above Ethereum. Why?
  13. Do you reali belive in 10$ per 1 XRP in near future? Market cap of XRP will be around 450B, that's 6 times bigger than all cryptos together now, 12 times bigger than BTC now. I thing it is should be real revolution, like Apple did it with cell phones. What is the chances that Ripple or any one ales will make it in near future....
  14. This tweet puts Market Cap in perspective I think:
  15. We're about to lose 2nd place in market cap in favor of ETH. We are getting beat by a coin's who's transactions take hours (XBT) and another who's takes minutes (ETH).. all while XRP takes seconds. Why? While banks decide whether to use XRP or not, Ripple should develop wallets and lobby the coin to companies like coinbase and such so e-commerce sites start using it. XBT and ETH will soon lower their transaction times and at that point XRP will lose his big advantage. What's causing the XBT and ETH rise and why isn't ripple doing the same for XRP? IMO ripple is missing the wave while waiting for SWIFT to die and there is no guarantee banks will adopt XRP.
  16. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/11/bitcoin-price-1800-record-high.html And the experts believe Japan's appetite for crypto is driving at least part of it: For me, given XRP's imminent penetration into the Asian - and specifically Japanese - market, that spells very good news indeed for the near future of XRP!
  17. Interesting read on SIA blog about ICO bubbles and market cap indicators: https://blog.sia.tech/want-to...t-cap-indicator-d50f7f1e1ec4
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