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  1. Some economic concepts can be surprisingly counter-intuitive. Have you heard about Jevon's paradox and the velocity of money? Perhaps, but I will point out how these apply to a  real-time payments system, and connect the dots for you. In addition, I've conducted a SWOT analysis of Ripple's fit for four different industries. Read for yourself and tell me if I'm missing something! Hope you enjoy the read - please leave any feedback below. Feel free to share my blog with a friend or on any other platform - and thanks for doing so! Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
  2. Given the current events I've been thinking lately about Ripple's vision to pair up with financial institutions and doing things right, now it all makes sense. TBH the crypto space will never be decentralised per se, the blockchain network (RCL) is decentralised to keep the info secure and private, but we'll always need to have a physical place where you can trade FIAT for cryptocurrencies/tokens/digital assets. Exchanges will then be exposed to regulations from central governments, whether you like it or not. All these new ICO's with fake promises only cause collateral damage for those who are actually trying to do a change in the world. And that's the main reason why governments like China are starting to act upon the possible outcome which is lots of people loosing money with ICO scams trying to make a quick buck. Just think about it, if tomorrow the US Government decides to follow the steps of the Chinese government of banning crypto exchanges to "save the economy from another financial bubble" we're all screwed. How would we then convert our Crypto into FIAT again? Would it lead to people selling their assets p2p through events/meetups? Back to using the deep web to follow the crypto dream? It's time to put our efforts as a community to support those who are really working to keep the economy stable and paired up with the FI's, it's time to spread the word about Ripple & XRP I'm more than happy to hear your opinions about this topic and also to discuss about the purpose of any ICO that's just a copy of what $BTC $LTC $ETH $XRP are trying to achieve @Hodor @JoelKatz @TiffanyHayden And as always, KEEP HODLING R A V I N T O L X
  3. There have been rumblings from bright people within the realm of economics and finance (for the past few years) stating that the U.S. is long over due for a recession (here's one source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1WrO4pCu7c). Though no one can predict the exact timing of such an event, chances are that we may experience a correction within the next few years. Interested to know what many of you brilliant people on here think about how a recession would affect the price of Ripple XRP. Would investors view XRP as a safe haven and as a hedge against the so-called 'Global Central Bank Economy', like they already do with Bitcoin and other decentralized coins? Or is the success of XRP directly linked to the health of the economy at large? Thank all of you in advance, I'm a huge fan of this forum and of Ripple. #2theMoon
  4. Imagine for a moment that its the year 1849. Gold has just been discovered in the hills of California. Now imagine that in this alternate version of history that the majority of people in the United States have never heard of this place called "California", and that few of the people who have heard of California have any idea how to read a map in order to get there. Furthermore, imagine that someone set up blockades on all the roads leading into California, making it more difficult for anyone to get in or out. This is the world of cryptocurrency today. A while back, I was riding with an engineer friend/coworker of mine, and he saw me busily doing something on my phone and asked what I was doing. I asked him if he'd ever heard of cryptocurrency. Blank stare. I gave him a brief synopsis of what cryptocurrency is about, my standard spiel about how I passed up on the opportunity to buy several hundred dollars worth of bitcoin back in the early days, etc., and then a quick rundown on XRP, what it is, where I see it going, and so on. I might as well have been describing the lost city of Troy to my cat. Without going into a lot of personal details, let me just say that the firm I currently work for has a large number of middle-class blue-collar employees. In fact, out of 54 employees at present, only 5 of them have college degrees. I've talked to a number of the folks out on our shop floor about bitcoin, none of them had heard of it. Let me me restate that for emphasis: none of them had even *heard* of Bitcoin three months ago. Any bets on whether any of them had heard of Etherium, Litecoin, or Ripple? *crickets* If you work in the financial or tech industries, or if (like me) you have a lot of friends who have worked in those sectors, its easy to have a false sense for what level of awareness -- or rather, unawareness -- surrounds blockchain. Most people not only don't understand how it works, but they don't even know that it is a thing. They don't even know that they don't know. That's the first reason -- in my opinion -- that the full value of XRP as an asset isn't fully priced in. There's not enough knowledge of its existence. Yet. Imagine for a moment you decided to buy a house. But there's a problem: not only have you not ever bought a house, but neither have any of your friends and family. None of them knows how to tell you where to start. To make matters worse, none of your friends seem to know any realtors, either. You ask around online, but you mainly find mixed information, reports that some of the realtors in your area are con-artists, as well as more than a handful of blog-posts decrying property in general as theft. Nonetheless, after dutifully exercising as much diligence as you can in such circumstances, you finally manage to find a house for sale, and as far as you can tell, it seems like one that you might want to buy. You pull out your wallet. Oh wait -- the owner of the house doesn't accept dollars. He's a gold bug. He doesn't trust the federal reserve, so you're gonna have to find somewhere to buy a bunch of gold bars. You scratch your head. "Now where the &$%# am I supposed to get gold bars?" >Facepalm.jpeg Back to the internet. More reading. More questionable blog posts and disinformation. You finally find a place in your local area that will sell you gold for dollars. Oh wait -- you have to provide a whole bunch of documentation so they know you're not a drug dealer, or a money launderer, or a time-traveling space-pirate. So after you've provided your photo ID, a proof of residence, a couple of DNA samples, etc. they finally sell you some gold. Oh wait -- even after you provided your great-grandmother's citizenship papers and a naked photo of yourself holding your social security card, they still will only sell you $250 dollars worth of gold per week. >DamnitToHell.bmp So you begin buying your gold, $250 worth at a time, and building up enough to make payments on that house every month. Then one day, you show up at Gold-R-Us, only to find that they're randomly locked up at two-o'clock on a Tuesday. They're open again Wednesday, so you buy some more and think "no harm, no foul." But then the next week you come back, and they're closed again because of... who knows. Maintenance? Customer overload? Wicked infestation of termites? Folks, this analogy is only barely a stretch, when it comes to buying XRP for the first time. I'm not exaggerating when I say it was less headache buying my last car than it was to jump through all the hoops it took to buy my first XRPs back in the sub-cent glory days. I, who had invested in coin before (back in the Mt. Gox/Cryptsy days... ugh) and who had friends in the coin world, was willing to tough it out and make my way through the obstacles to purchase some Zerps. How many of those people out on my shop floor do you think would do the same? Short answer? Before the 4000% increase in the price of XRP, I wasn't able to persuade a single one of them. Since then, I've brought a few on board. If we continue to see growth, I have no doubt that others will hear about it and get on board as well. My point is: word is only just now starting to trickle out that "there's gold in them thar' hills". But even with word trickling out, we're only seeing a tiny fraction of the eventual investor pool. I've heard speculation as to whether the growth potential of XRP is priced in. For markets to efficiently gauge the value of an asset, there has to be good knowledge about the asset, widely and freely available, and no barriers to entry. At present, there is very little knowledge (outside of the tech and financial sectors) and the barriers to entry are often confusing and seemingly arbitrary to the uninitiated. I personally do not believe there can be strong correlation between the price of XRP and its value as a long-term asset as long as so few people know about it, and as long as the hurdles to buying XRP are as numerous and as confusing to outside investors. Now look at the google trends for bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, etc. The stat charts have gone full-blown hockey-stick. People are waking up. And as demand for assets like XRP increases, the number of venues offering will increase as well. Sites like Coinbase and Poloniex have only been able to maintain their rolling $#%&-show for so long because of relative lack of competition -- that's changing. In the end, I strongly believe that the markets will become more efficient as knowledge proliferates and as the barriers to entry become more stream-lined. As that occurs, I believe the price of XRP will rise until its long-term value is fully priced in. I look forward to that day. Big time. Now if you'll excuse me, I've got to go provide Coinbase with a notarized copy of a Papal Bull so they'll raise my purchase limit... that is, assuming they're not temporarily experiencing random downtime because of ghosts in their breakroom.
  5. There's an old joke among economists: two economists -- one younger, one older -- are walking down a sidewalk, when the younger one points out a hundred-dollar bill lying on the ground. "Nonsense," the older economist replies. "If there were really a hundred dollar bill on the ground, someone would have already picked it up." Looking at the long-term plan for RL and XRP, XRP seems like an excellent investment opportunity at its current price. Think of it as the hundred dollar bill, lying there on the ground for the taking. And yet the majority of two key groups -- firstly, the cryptocurrency community; secondy, the traditional investor class -- have eschewed it thus far. On the surface this seems puzzling. Why wouldn't they jump on board -- particularly after the spectacular run of the past few weeks? Why won't they pick up the hundred dollar bill lying so obviously in front of their feet? The members of the traditional investor class are actually the easiest to explain, so we'll start with them first. Three months ago, I sat down with my father -- who is nearing retirement -- and tried to explain to him what XRP was, how it worked, what the long-term could hold for it, etc. It didn't go well. "I don't get it -- they're just making money up... where's the value?... how do I know they won't just disappear tomorrow with my money?" etc. I did my best to address each of his concerns in turn, but it didn't matter -- I might as well have tried explaining heaven to a bear. My point is: many of the investor types grew up in an era when paying with a credit card involved calling some company on a land-line with a rotary-phone, then hauling out some heavy device and *chunk-kerchunk* making a carbon copy of the card itself and then filling in the blanks with a ball-point pen. These are people who only recently warmed up to buying things on Amazon. They are old dogs and blockchain is a very, very new trick. I know what you're thinking -- surely after I went to him and told him what my initial investment was, and what it's worth now (4000% later), he would jump on board, right? "Is it in your bank account?" Me: "well, I'm not converting it back into dollars yet, because I expect it to keep going up." Dad: "So basically, you've got monopoly money. It could crash tomorrow and you'd be back to square one." (Nevermind that his retirement account could do essentially the same thing, but that's a separate topic...) All that to say: the blindness of people like my dad is understandable and not particularly surprising. Because of the blinders they have on when it comes to blockchain, they are going to be blind-sided by (to use crypto-yoda's term) "the greatest transfer of wealth in human history." But what about the rest of the blockchain crowd? Surely they have no excuse. They understand the technology. They witnessed -- and many of them got rich from -- the meteoric rise of first Bitcoin, then Etherium and others. Why, then, do they not see the potential that is right before their eyes? Humans have a notable tendency to mentally block-out any information that conflicts with their own views of the world or -- more relevantly -- how it should be. Many of you are probably familiar with what I'm talking about here: cognitive biases. Anyone who has experience debating people of different political or religious views will have experienced this firsthand. No matter how logically you make your case, you often find the opposing party digging their heels in further and further in the face of your arguments. To people who are deeply entrenched in the Bitcoin and Etherium communities, the very nature of Ripple -- its cooperation with the banks, its willingness to work within the financial system in its current manifestation rather than attempt to overthrow the system in its entirety, etc -- is anathema. You might as well try to convince a conservative Catholic of the merits of abortion, a socialist of the merits of free-markets, a libertarian of the merits of the Federal Reserve, an environmentalist of the merits of fracking, a vegan of... well... you get the idea. Regardless of your philosophical outlook, we all cling to notions of how things should be -- and any evidence that contradicts must be either error or a lie, mustn't it? Mustn't it!? The crypto-anarchist undercurrent that drives a significant portion of the crypto-community is, beyond question, a philosophical outlook. I say this as someone who is largely in agreement with the crypto- and privacy-advocacy communities. In fact, I have personally wrestled with the apparent disconnect between my commitment to privacy along with my personal skepticism toward the big banks, one hand, and the vested interest I have (via my investment in XRP) in seeing Ripple/XRP succeed. And I'll be honest: I haven't fully reconciled that. I still wrestle with those questions. But nonetheless, despite my skepticism of the financial system as it currently operates and toward the big banks in general, I cannot deny the mounting evidence that suggests that XRP is a sound long-term investment, with a clear use-case, a solid team of developers, and enormous growth potential. Lets go back to the joke at the beginning. The hundred dollar bill is lying there on the sidewalk, with the face of Ben Franklin looking up at you with that dour, slightly disapproving look that suggests he just finished reviewing your browser history. A hundred dollars, just there for the taking -- yet hundreds, maybe even thousands, have walked by without picking it up. Some of those people don't believe in paper money, and so they walk on past it, dismissing it as a folly. These people are the traditional investors. Some of those people thing money is the root of all evil, and so they walk on past as well, rather than sully their hands with the devil's scrip. These people are the die-hard members of the bitcoin establishment. And then you come along. And it's not just a single hundred-dollar bill. It's a whole #$%&ing stack of them. There for the taking. Under normal circumstances, that pile of money would have been snatched up or scattered to the winds as a hundred greedy hands fought over it. Under any normal circumstances, the surplus XRP would have been gobbled up until all the growth potential was fully priced in. But because of the peculiarities of the world-views of the investor class and the bitcoin establishment, they've both walked on by that pile of money. In short: there's tremendous profit to be made here, but because most of the potential investors are too damned blinkered, that profit potential has not yet been fully priced in. I'm not a stock market analyst. There are many here and elsewhere who can tell you far more about trend-lines and waves than I could ever hope to understand. But it doesn't a background in finance and trading to see the way most potential investors are probably missing out. Could I be mistaken? Of course. I ask myself that question several times a week, wondering whether my biases might be blinding me to any potential pitfalls. So far I haven't seen any, though -- and so in the meanwhile, I'll continue to invest, believing that there is a great long-term profit to be made here. Only time will tell.
  6. Imagine, for a moment, it's autumn of 2018. You wake up, turn on your television, and see channel after channel showing shots of the New York Stock Exchange, with news anchors nervously discussing the morning's developments: the stock market is crashing. Panic is in the air. Everyone remembers the housing and banking crisis ten years before. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt are the order of the day. Will the contagion spread? The above scenario is obviously fictional--I'm certainly no Nostradamus. But it's not implausible. The global economy last tanked in 2008. Before that, 1999-2000. Before that, 1991-1992. In very rough terms, these have happened every 8-10 years in recent history. Could we make it another 3 or 4 years? Certainly. Past performance is no indicator, and all that. Nonetheless, at some point we will see another economic crash. This is not a matter of "if", but "when." That said, the last time the market crashed, Bitcoin wasn't even a thing. We have no real template for what the cryptocurrency market looks like in the middle of a crash. Will investors treat crypto as a safe-haven, as they do precious metals? Or will investors begin pulling their funds out of crypto as uncertainty rises and panic strikes the other markets? Will it be something in between, with a slump, but of lesser severity? Or something else entirely? I recently posed this question to a friend of mine who has been in Bitcoin and a few other coins since around 2013. While he agrees that there's no way to know for sure -- "even gold isn't acting like gold, lately" he noted -- he suggested looking at Venezuela and India for clues. "Crypto is gaining a foothold in those places," he observed, however "the main issue is the technological sophistication of the populace." A few anecdotes I've picked up over the past several months lend some credence to this theory; although, anecdotes should never substitute for hard data (which I'm lacking). South Korea might serve as a second -- albeit more controversial -- example. Another investor friend of mine pointed to the turmoil and uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula, from domestic political turmoil to the ever-looming threat across the DMZ to the north. In her view, these factors helped drive the strong demand for first Bitcoin and then XRP in recent weeks, as investors looked for safe-havens. Does this theory have legs? I don't have enough information to answer that question. I'd love to hear from some of our Korean members for further insights. A third friend talked about the role regulation has played in Japan in driving demand. It's been suggested that so-called "bitcoin laws" have helped boost investor confidence in crypto in Japan, and he speculated that we could see very different reactions in different countries, based on the regulatory climate. "In countries where there are strong protections in place," he said, "we might see investors treat it more as a safe-haven and a hedge against inflation. In countries without such laws, though, who knows? It's anyone's guess." Ultimately, I don't have an answer. This isn't going to be one of those sorts of posts. Instead, I'm posing the question, hoping we can all gain insights from the discussion. Thoughts?
  7. Just thought this was a well-written and thought-provoking article: http://observer.com/2016/09/the-gig-economy-brave-new-world-and-pure-exploitation
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