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  1. Back in April & May this year, when the big money really started getting in to crypto, I began noticing extreme correlations between various currencies. These movements were far too fast to be replicated by human eyes and fingers, so I concluded that they were bots. At around the same time, I was approached by an organisation which, as they put it, "invested in baskets of cryptocurrencies" according to my risk appetite. They had algorithmically designated all the various cryptocurrencies as being either high risk, medium risk or low risk. They may have had other categories as well, though I can't recall all the details of the conversation. I did end up investing with them though, and got in early on a couple of ICOS for which they had some sort of preferential / promised allocation in place. The reason I mention this is that I see it happening again. The correlations are back to being around 95%+ between various groups of currencies. For example, take a look at the price action of DGB, then compare it to SC. Similar risk profile. You will immediately see what I'm talking about. This is not human eyes and fingers, but bots automatically bidding/selling at exactly the same time to either take the price higher or lower at exactly the same time. The same is true of BTC, ETH and XRP right now - and because these appear to have a similar risk profile, they all move together. They will, of course, not move at the same time or in the same way as differently-profiled currencies. We've just seen a huge spike up in XRP of course, and that wasn't replicated in ETH or BTC. The bots are probably employing some form of sophisticated AI which can take into account sudden decoupling events based on news/announcements. I imagine this would be some form of sentiment analysis which examines news links, the reputation(s) of the entity/(ies) posting the link; the proximity and prevalence of positive and negative keywords etc. I have built a tool like this myself in the past for a social profiling business, so I certainly know they exist. I'm not saying that the correlation will always be there... but at the time of writing, we're looking at approx 100% price movement correlation. What can we take from this? Well. Two things: 1. To be very on guard, watching/waiting for news or events that impacts BTC's price negatively. Such as the current battle between BTC and BCH. Be aware that ETH and XRP will move in the exact same direction in the absence of positive news. Support levels in TA do not appear to matter. 2. Someone (could be human, but probably AI) believes that these three currencies, and possibly others as well, are in exactly the same (or very very close) risk profile category, hence the correlated moves. That's either worrying or encouraging I guess, depending on your outlook. Here is a USD chart example for past three days (faded background is Bitcoin/USD, opaque is XRP/USD). Shows a 99% price direction correlation, and a 95% price movement correlation.
  2. Below is a little 'table' of factors often discussed here, and the possible correlation of each to changes in the price of XRP. Remember that correlation does not imply causation, meaning that while the price of XRP may move in tandem with a factor (or against it), the price movement may or may not be caused by that factor. Correlations measure the strength of a linear relationship between two variables. Qualitatively speaking, correlations between two variables can be negative if one moves up while the other one moves down (ex. sales volume and unit price), or positive if they move in sync in either +ve/-ve direction (ex. home square footage and price), or zero if they are uncorrelated and neither really cares what the other one does. Quantitatively, correlation coefficients vary between a minimum of -1 and a maximum of +1, with values such as 0.2 being described as a 'weak positive correlation' and -0.85 as a 'strong negative correlation.' The table below is only qualitative. It is also subjective and by no means inclusive of all possible factors. factor correlation to XRP price change note good news (Ripple) none, or, if positive, not sustainable yet includes new offices/staff/corridors/partners/exchange listings/pairings/products bad news (Ripple) unknown insufficient data, note R3 lawsuit unresolved Bitcoin price up rarely positive, frequently zero or negative not in sync to the upside Bitcoin price down highly positive in sync to downside, Bitcoin price drop drags down all other coins (including XRP) alt coins price up none no single strong influencer other than Bitcoin (to the downside) alt coins price down positive as side effect of Bitcoin price drop XRP demand/use unknown insufficient data, delays in adoption -> legitimate concerns up -ve sentiment re XRP (non-XRP holders) unknown xrpchat traffic up, conspiracy theories up (many featuring large marine mammals) +ve/-ve sentiment re XRP (XRP holders) none -ve sentiment -> diversification talk up; +ve sentiment -> moontalk up decentralization of validators unknown insufficient data, decentralization incomplete use cases other than cross-border payments unknown insufficient data (ex. Arrington XRP fund, emerging focus on p2p/retail payments) compliance with regulation none presumed positive for Ripple My $.02 (fiat).
  3. So BTC is taking all our gains with it! For now i'am all in BCH/USD and Holding onto XRP!
  4. "XRP remained highly correlated to ETH (96.9 percent), but unsurprisingly, diverged from BTC. " From Ripple's Q3 Report. When XRP moves independent of other cryptos, stability improves. Market driven moves disrupt customer driven needs. It's good to see that the choke-hold of BTC, the one that prides itself on independent, non-control democratization, is losing its correlation. Even if the correlation moves to ETH at this time, it's a one-off in a marketplace that needs independence. These are good signs. Thoughts?
  5. Let me first state that I am long on XRP. Been holding since 2014/15. Believe in the use case, the strategy, the technology and the team. Expect XRP to appreciate in value due to real world usage and subsequent mainstream speculation. The current speculation in this shallow crypto space is just foreplay. To my question. I am still puzzled by the price movement correlation between BTC and altcoins (incl. XRP). I would expect an inverse correlation (apart from the inflow of new money into the crypto space). As people are unsure about e.g. a possible BTC fork the first of August I would expect money moving from BTC to alternatives. In other words BTC price declining and some of the altcoins increasing. Can someone explain why this is not the case?
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