JoeBishop

@rumusama The gist is that institutional investors buy (or borrow) BTC and exchange them for shares of GBTC at NAV (1 share of GBTC represents an equal amount of BTC @ spot price). However, those shares of GBTC are 1) Not redeemable for actual BTC and 2) cannot be sold for 6 months from the day of purchase). When the 6 months is up, those shares are "unlocked" and the holder can then sell their GBTC on the open market at the "retail" price (NAV ÷ premium). Why this is so interesting is that up until late February of this year, GBTC traded at a significant premium to spot BTC prices (it reached + 20% premium last year). So the incentive for the institutional investors was to lend (or buy) "cheap btc", trade the btc for GBTC from Grayscale, wait 6 months and capture any BTC gains + the GBTC Premium. Quite a lucrative trade. And as long as the premium was in place, the incentive was to "rinse and repeat" the process - thus creating more buy pressure on spot BTC. Fast-forward to today and the GBTC "premium" is now negative to NAV. It's actually cheaper to buy shares of GBTC than an equivalent amount of spot BTC. So the theory goes that these institutional investors are dumping GBTC during these unlock periods, which impacts the markets two-fold: 1) Any institutional investor wanting BTC exposure can buy these discounted GBTC on the open market - thus reducing demand for spot BTC. 2) The institutions that were hoovering-up BTC for the GBTC trade mentioned above are no longer doing that since there is no guarantee the "premium" will return - also reducing institutional demand for spot btc. If this doesn't clear things up, just do a quick Google search - there are tons of articles that explain it much better than I did above.

I've been watching this as well. There is a huge unlock today, which could portend another bloody Monday when the markets open. After that, literally nothing for two weeks and then two final tranches on the 17th (moderate size) and 24th (big one). If the market isn't completely toast by the end of July, there will be a long reprieve from GBTC unlocks. No idea how this will all play out but it makes sense that GBTC might be playing a significant role in the current downtrend. Here's a link to the article that includes the attached table: https://www.coindesk.com/grayscale-gbtc-discount-crypto-bitcoin-correction?amp=1

Update on Bifrost wallet . . .

Yup. Get your 🍿 ready!

https://t.co/U9zlzYCqY9?amp=1 The latest video from BcBacker, who has been mentioned several times in this thread. Whether he is right or wrong about there being one more ATH this bull market for BTC will be proven out over the coming weeks/months. What I like about him is that he has conviction about his analysis and acts accordingly - while acknowledging that he may be wrong. Definitely worth a watch regardless your view on the relevance of past market cycles and TA in general. Cheers!

And a happy green Monday to you @JASCoder. To me it makes sense that losses within the same tax year would offset gains for that same period (regardless whether the gains were short or long-term). But the US tax code was not designed to make sense, so I'll be seeking professional advice on the matter. Will definitely report back on what I learn. Cheers!

Thanks to all that have contributed thus far - very helpful! My current situation (referenced above) is that I sold some ADA for XRP last week @ roughly $1.50 per XRP. The ADA was held for 12+ months (long-term capital gains). I bought that ADA at roughly .10 and sold @ $2.25 - so the % gain was signficant. We all know what happened from there, as the market has dumped continuously since. So now my concern is preserving my DAs while reducing owed capital gains. If the market turns around, the urgency would be lessened, but would still be a smart move as @JASCoder mentions in the OP. My thought was to sell the XRP purchased at current prices to offset the ADA long-term gains I owe. (Note: all of the XRP I own were purchased this year - so no long-term gains or losses available). Based on the recent clarifications above, I think that original idea would work if we assume I have no short-term gains to offset and no long-term losses either. Is this correct? (Note: I am using Tokentax for tax/loss harvesting and will 100% have a CPA review everything before I file.) Thanks again for the timely topic and input!

I stand corrected @JASCoder. A quick search yielded several articles articulating that very point - wash rule does not apply to crypto (at least not at this time). Thanks again for the topic and clarification!

Good topic @JASCoder! One suggested edit/correction. Almost positive you would need to wait at least 30 days to repurchase your BTC (in the US) - otherwise the "loss" is invalidated as a wash trade. Otherwise, you nailed it. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/a-primer-on-wash-sales#:~:text=The wash-sale rule was,or after the sale date). I'm in that boat myself currently. Flipped some ADA profits to XRP before the first big drop a week or so ago. That was a taxable event for me. Now just considering my options on how to proceed. I figure if the bull run continues, I'll take profits later on and allocate for the owed taxes. But if prices continue to fall, I'll sell the purchased XRP and use the loss to help offset my ADA gains. Good news is it's only May. Still have plenty of time to determine the optimal strategy without necessarily selling at the bottom (if this is the bottom, of course).

Add Flare's interest/work with Handshake and your theory makes even more sense @brianwalden. Not just domains, but add in the ability to collect data on "real world" objects (a barrel or Brent crude oil for example) and things get really interesting. If you haven't seen this video, give it a watch. It's above my full level of comprehension, but I understand just enough to get tingly.

Love this idea @brianwalden! I've been hoping Kraken or one of the other new "crypto banks" might offer up these types of services once they fully come online. It seems like Nexo, Celsius and others basically have all of the pieces to do this already, but haven't automated the entire process. As a US citizen, I'd love to be able to keep at least some of my crypto in an FDIC insured entity and use interest/loans to fund my post-rich retirement. But the question of taxes is still out there. The govt. needs to get their piece. How's that going to work if all of us crypto-plebes are essentially living tax-free and funding our hookers and blow habits with "self repaying loans"?

I'm in the US and was able to login to Binance.com today and withdraw a small amount of VTHO that I had forgotten about. I believe US users can login and withdraw - just not trade. He should give it a try. As an FYI, I did receive a warning message when I logged-in that identified my IP as US. It then gave me the option of verifying that I was not a US citizen (via KYC) or proceeding without verification (which I chose). Maybe it's different if the user has already been verified as a US citizen - don't know. Good luck to him!

Asia retail hodlers and Jed's nightly sales yet to come . . . this madness likely continues for a while.

Pretty good article on the history of inter-CB swaps . . . https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-economy-currency.html

Paging @BobWay Would love your thoughts if you are lurking.