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  1. Thank you for commenting on my "lawyering abilities" as you call them, I will refrain from commenting on yours, no need for name calling in a civilized debate. Ripple and their lawyers are avoiding the securities arguments, because they don't need to go down that road at all. They just need to win the case. You presume the case will have to determine if XRP is a security or not. I would argue that it will never come to that at all, which is what Ripple is trying to achieve with this motion to dismiss by stating that the question of XRP being a security is completely irrelevant, because even if it were a security, it would not change the outcome of the lawsuit. Other lawyers seem to think this is the case as well, so I am not alone in my opinion. From the article: https://www.coindesk.com/whats-next-in-the-securities-case-against-ripple-over-xrp "But the suit is not likely to settle the matter, legal experts said. “No one’s finding out whether XRP is a security anytime soon, if ever, at least through this proceeding,” said Rebecca Rettig, a partner at FisherBroyles." You are insinuating all over the forum that XRP is a security, even throwing out January 15th as a date to watch for. You even state you are shorting XRP because of it. In reality, the question whether XRP is a security will definitely not be answered on that date and most likely not for a long time. EDIT: let me explain what I am trying to say with the simplest example I can come up with. A lawsuit I was involved in stated that a customer wanted to return a machine for a full refund under warranty to the seller because the machine was broken. The lawsuit was dismissed, because the machine was actually already out of warranty (after 1 year). We never determined if the machine was broken or not, because we did not have to. Stating the machine was out of warranty did not mean we are admitting the machine was broken. The state of the machine was irrelevant.
  2. You're kidding, right? The part that you quoted was made arguendo, stating that even if XRP were a security, it would already be too late to file the case. You yourself admitted the statement was made arguendo, or would you like to change your position on that? Just so I know which part to address. And please note, as I quoted from the filings, Ripple specifically stated XRP is not a security. Or are you saying Ripple is contradicting its own statements? A simple quote from wikipedia for anyone following this debate: "A criminal defense attorney may say, "if, arguendo, my client stole the internet data and password, then saving a life would have justified stealing it," thus suggesting that determining the client's guilt or innocence is pointless because they would cause identical legal effects." This is exactly what Ripple is saying (among other things) in that response. The debate on XRP being a security is pointless for this case, because the legal effects for the Plaintiff would be identical either way.
  3. This is simply false, and to support my argument, I quote Ripple's reply to Plaintiff's response (page 1): https://www.scribd.com/document/438446249/Ripple-Reply-to-Response "Opp. 1. XRP is not a security, Mot. 21 n.19, but that is irrelevant for purposes of this motion. Even if XRP were a security, Plaintiff’s claims still fail as a matter of law." Ripple is opposing Plaintiff's arguments even in the case XRP was a security, but are clearly repeating their position that XRP is not a security. EDIT: I read your post again, and indeed, you actually agree with this yourself. As you wrote, arguendo, for the sake of the argument, Ripple states that even if XRP was a security, the Plaintiff's claims do not hold. This is not the same as them stating XRP is a security, as you state in your post: Please, support your argument with a quote where Ripple admits that XRP is a security. That statement is absent in most recent court filings, but I was able to find a quote from Ripple explicitly saying it is not a security from the same court filings you supposedly cite.
  4. Again you are posting the same links as in your every post. @Tinyaccount asked you to provide evidence where Ripple stated XRP was a security, which is something you stated without providing any quote. Can't you just answer a simple question? Please provide a quote where Ripple stated XRP was a security.
  5. @Sporticus, all @Eric123 is saying is that the question of XRP being a security will not be answered on January 15th, no matter if Ripple’s motion to dismiss is granted or denied (which this topic is supposedly about). You can at least agree with that. The fact that you are shorting XRP (as you stated in another topic) based on your opinion that XRP is a security is very dangerous in the world of crypto, and yesterdays +10% movement within a matter of minutes/hours is a testimony to that. A lot can happen between now and the time XRP gets declared a security, if that even ever happens. You should be wary of margin calls and theoretical unlimited loss in short positions in an illiquid crypto market with regular random sudden movements. This is not a fortune 500 stock, but an asset in an unpredictable and manipulated environment. I really appreciate your comments and your experience dealing with the SEC, but your posts are extremely unbalanced (from extremely positive some time ago to extremely negative recently), nothing is completely white or completely black. I will enjoy reading your insights on the securities topic in the future, but would truly appreciate a more balanced outlook, presenting what you think may happen in a more objective way. To get back on topic, the document you linked in your original post was uploaded by Coindesk, so I am expecting an article from their side soon. They usually get a few experts to comment on the topic, so it should be interesting to read. EDIT: Since OP links to Plaintiff's response to motion to dismiss, it would only be fair to also link Ripple's reply to that response, which was filed AFTER Plaintiff's response and seems to be the last official document on the matter that I could find: https://www.scribd.com/document/438446249/Ripple-Reply-to-Response
  6. Hi @Sporticus, could you specifically name what changed in your view since you wrote XRP is not a security about a year and a half ago? What exactly did you and your wife both miss when you "researched the XRP as securities topic thoroughly"? As I understand from your posts, you now believe that XRP was a security from the moment Ripple started selling it? Or did something change in the last year and a half?
  7. The only total lie here is the title of that article: Ripple CEO Predicts That 20 Biggest Banks Will Trade Crypto in 2020 Actual quote from Ripple Insights: "CEO Brad Garlinghouse is even bolder, predicting that half of the top 20 biggest banks in the world will actively hold and trade digital assets in 2020. He is also one of many on the team that believes fiat currencies will go digital in the next year." Please stop posting blog websites from people that are not journalists, it's not doing anyone a favor.
  8. Yes, sorry, I was not specific enough in my answer. I was referring to your calls in other topics that we may see 0.03 USD/XRP. Although I do not know where the true bottom is, I personally don't think we would be able to reach that number, simply based on the buying pressure and sellers unwilling to spend enough XRP on sell orders to reach 0.03 XRP/USD, except maybe a weird wick down, if someone accidentally clears all buy orders, but that would likely happen on one of the illiquid exchanges, not across the entire market. If we actually lingered at that price for a while, I would consider crypto market dead, because it would take several years to dig out of a depression that deep, meaning it would be wiser to spend your investment in basically any other asset on the planet. Again, I am feeling like the opposite of late December 2017 is happening - I never thought 100 USD/XRP was possible in that bull run, but 5 USD/XRP seemed very close when we reached over 3 USD/XRP in a matter of 2 weeks, so I didn't sell at the top. Now, many are calling for absurd numbers under 0.10 USD and even under 0.01 USD. Obviously, the price might fall down from here, but just like in late 2017, when there was not enough USD thrown into the market to realistically reach 100 USD/XRP, I don't believe there is enough XRP available at under 0.10 USD/XRP to reach extremes like 0.03 USD/XRP for an extended period of time. EDIT: apology, I just checked and it was not you calling for 0.03 USD/XRP, so my answer is obviously meant for a different user. Disregard the message above, but I will leave it in its original form nonetheless I see now I accidentally confused your account with @Javim777 , so I might as well tag him here.
  9. This is a video from someone live streaming a Bitcoin flashcrash in 2011, it goes from 5 USD to less than 0.01 USD in minutes on Mt Gox: Imagine going through this in 2011, when no one knew about Bitcoin and no infrastructure whatsoever existed. Crypto survived this. It survived the 2013 ATH and crash. It will survive the 2017 bubble as well.
  10. Yes, don't mislead people by talking positively about an asset with good fundamentals that is currently sitting at -95% of its ATH. It's much better to wait for a bull market and tell all your friends how much money people made on crypto after price shot up 3000%, so they get FOMO and invest at the top. Unless you believe crypto market is going to die completely, answer this: does -95% of an ATH (across the entire market) tell you we are close to a top of a cycle or close to a bottom of one?
  11. 1) Nobody knows how much XRP is needed on the market. This is basically a true statement for any asset out there. Look at gold for example. The entire supply of gold is at about 190k tons, with between 2-3k tons dug up and added to the total supply each year. How much gold does the market need? Nobody knows exactly, but not all of it goes for “utility”. About 60 - 70% is used in jewelry and other industries that actually need gold (like electronics and dentistry), but about 30 - 40% can be attributed to investors and speculators: In crypto, it’s more like 99.9% speculation and 0.01% utility, and even at that, vast majority of utility falls under the category of money laundering and other illegal businesses. 2) No. The whole on demand liquidity narrative is to purchase XRP to transfer value across border and sell it on the other side. It’s literally in the name -> on demand; when needed. Banks don’t hold XRP, neither does MGI. They use it. Market makers (MMs) are the ones holding XRP. They do so in hope of making money off the spreads on exchanges and arbitrage opportunities, by setting buy and sell orders on the market (that is where the XRP is “tied” or “held”). The more liquid an asset is, the more promising it looks to an MM (because the buys and sells are more frequent), but this also attracts other MMs, which in turn produces smaller spreads, as different MMs compete with each other. For example, an USD/EUR pair will have significantly smaller spreads compared to VEF/ZWD (Venezuela/Zimbabwe – if you can even trade this pair). Here’s how utility may move the price in the long term when the market matures: Market makers demand more XRP on the market. If the corridors (like USD/MXN) become liquid enough to be profitable for MMs and save transaction costs for banks and FIs, there will be competition between multiple MMs that will further build on utility and tighten the spreads, as long as it’s profitable. The XRP supply is fixed at 100 billion and is very slowly decreasing (at an insignificant rate to ever affect the price), but the price of USD/XRP is not fixed, which means it changes depending on market demand. If the price was higher, it could easily accommodate larger transactions between different currencies. Unless regulatory bodies ban trading digital assets, I see a vicious cycle happening in the future: MMs create liquidity -> this creates cheaper instant cross-border gross settlement for banks and FIs -> the trading volume attracts more MMs -> this creates more liquidity -> this creates cheaper instant cross-border gross settlement for banks and FIs -> … Every new corridor demands XRP tied up in market buy/sell orders, each new MM needs XRP to participate in the market. As in gold and other assets, a certain percent will be tied up as “investment” or “speculation”, which means the total supply of actual XRP on the market becomes lower. Everyone, from market makers, investors, speculators and “utility users” are an important part of the market. MGI is a user but does not hold any XRP. Holding XRP is not MGI’s role in the XRP ecosystem.
  12. You see, this is the exact reason I created this topic. No, you do not need any announcements, nor will they help with the price at this point in time. This is a speculative, immature market, fundamentals are mostly irrelevant, and the whole market moves in unison. Every single top 100 coin moved up by factor of 10x and more in 2017 and it needed no announcement and fundamental change at all. DOGE is a perfect example of that. I would like to say otherwise, but I can’t. It will become better once the market matures, but we are years from that. I personally believe there will be one or more speculative bubbles before that happens. People were buying XRP at 0.006 USD when no one knew about crypto, and XRP was just a fast-moving coin that had nothing built around it (and considered even more as a scam by the crypto community than it is today). I doubt your order at 0.001 USD would ever come close to being triggered. The fact that we are even debating about 0.10, 0.001 and 0.0001 USD goes to show we are at the opposite end of what happened in 2017, when people were calling for XRP at hundreds and even thousands of USD per XRP. 0.01 USD/XRP is just as absurd as 589 USD/XRP and I hope my original post explains why this is the case. There is simply not enough XRP out there on sale at 0.01 USD/XRP, just as there is not enough USD to support 589 USD/XRP at the moment.
  13. What's your point? Why mid January 2019? Did you purchase all your XRP in January 2019? Or are we just picking random timelines? I can do that as well: December 18th 2016 (exactly 3 years ago): BTC 794 USD ETH 7.79 USD XRP 0.006 USD December 18th 2019 (today): BTC 6660 USD (about 900%) ETH 124 USD (about 1590%) XRP 0.185 USD (about 3080%)
  14. TLDR: If you’re a lazy reader, take a look at the first and last paragraph. If you find them interesting, you’re welcome to read the rest as well. For the past few months, even when XRP was in the 30 cents range, you would only need to spend 5 million USD on Bitstamp to push the price to 0.54 USD, and 10 million USD would push the price to 0.90 USD. This is only Bitstamp and only XRP/USD, so the price might not be sustained for long (or at all), but you get the picture. This has not changed in the entire time I’ve been checking on Bitstamp’s liquidity. Even while XRP seemingly weakly hovers in the 0.18s range at the time of writing, you still need the same amount of cash to push the price up. This tells me the low prices are very random and can be easily manipulated either way. The buy and sell orders are just following the price around, and some large players are dumping large amounts of crypto all over the market at the same time. That is not what you do when you want to get the maximum amount of cash for your crypto, otherwise, you would either sell slowly, or find buyers OTC. Dumping millions of XRP (and other cryptos) and hundreds of BTC within the same second is what you do when you want to push the price down. Obviously, we have no clue what their target or their plan is. You can look at the charts and analyze them all you want, but it will always be near impossible to predict movements in any illiquid market with few large players that can basically do whatever they want with it. At some point, both buyers and sellers will become exhausted and we’ll be in a long phase of accumulation. Personally, I was sure the accumulation phase for XRP was in the 0.20 – 0.30 USD range, but I might have been wrong. Or, the panic we are seeing right now will eventually just be a long wick down on a weekly chart, and we’ll be back to 0.20 – 0.30 USD next week. Most retail has probably left crypto in the first 6 months of 2018, and the ones that haven’t, probably won’t at this point. Many of those that sold recently are likely waiting for a re-entry. XRP will not go to zero, because I would buy all 100 billion XRP for 100 USD just for the fun of it, so a guaranteed minimum price is 0.000000001 USD/XRP Jokes aside, at half a cent, one would only need to spend 5k USD to buy 1 million XRP. That’s a far too lucrative opportunity to miss out, and there are buyers with far more money to spend out there, so I personally doubt we’ll see pre 2017 prices ever again. In speculative markets, fundamentals don’t make the price, the price makes the price. Everyone was throwing money into XRP in 2017 when xRapid was not even a real concept but are afraid to buy it two years later when it’s actually being used in production as intended for on demand liquidity (ODL), even if on a very small scale. Things are just being built now but purchasing a part of Moneygram has let Ripple show other customers that XRP can be used in production. It’s not a scammy ICO promising to move everything on blockchain, it’s a real product solving real problems. As for the current uncertainty across the entire crypto market, I just have this to say: Spend 5 million USD on Bitstamp and watch “investors” franticly wait for a retrace to re-enter their positions. Human psychology is a funny thing. Fundamentals can become strong or weak, it will not affect the market at all. But push an asset up by 15% a week for one straight month, and FOMO kicks in. People buying crypto first, asking questions later, and are even happy to invest thousands of dollars based on information like “if Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is like silver,” as long as the price keeps going up. Things go from depression to frenzy really quickly, and every market out there runs in cycles. XRP price is about -95% from it's ATH, so it's safe to say the current cycle is much closer to a bottom than to a top.
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