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aavkk

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Everything posted by aavkk

  1. Great to see this finally launch live. It will be interesting to follow the volumes and growth of ODL.
  2. It would be great to see big volumes leading to closing down the taco stand in several months.
  3. You seem to be well informed. Have the SEC brought forth all the documents that Ripple requested via Discovery yet? If not, is there some kind of timeline on that?
  4. Yes, but our brave new world is all about network effects. For example if you look at the Nasdaq index compared to the nasdaq 100 for the past couple of years you’ll see that the mega caps are the fastest growing companies. This has never before been the case. We are living in an exponential age now. XRP is very well positioned to solve what is estimated to be between a $6-27 T problem. The SEC lawsuit will very likely be resolved with clarity for XRP at some point in the next 6 months. The other issue with the smaller coins, of which I own several is liquidity. If you are a 1% holder you have to be very careful how you exit with those massive profits. I agree with Julian and am confident in XRP being capable of $30-50+ with an appropriately long timeframe. The latest from the ECB on their CBDC puts us at about 2024/2025 which was my original thinking on when the space overall begins to level off on its exponential growth. Sure, I’d love a massive bull run and blow off top later this year a-la 2013 or 17 but if it doesn’t come I’m happy to keep holding and making other intelligent bets where it makes sense.
  5. You are certainly asking some interesting questions. This is all fascinating and I'm really not at all surprised to see Congress really pressing for clarity at this point. I'd happily forget all about Hinman and Clayton for regulatory clarity that allows DA's both new and established including XRP to thrive. Even with the deposition I'd be surprised if the judge allowed a line of questioning which would risk a counter suit from Ripple but let's see.
  6. Just me speculating but it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the powers that be force USDC into the Stablecoin of choice. Circle raised $400 MM very recently and has the support of the biggest players on Wall St.
  7. Hopefully they have some traction this time around!
  8. There’s a massive difference between a proper petition via a medium such as change.org and throwing verbal feces via Twitter. Properly organized and with a clear message such as this does have potential ramifications here as it discredits the SEC’s case. Who exactly are they protecting?!? The reason why the SEC doesn’t have its own proponents applauding their efforts and every move is because they are protecting the top correspondent banks and legacy finance who haven’t yet maneuvered their way into strategic bets in blockchain and crypto. In my opinion it’s rather clear the motivation behind all this.
  9. @Ripley I understand but I was curious what the specific alternative was? I’m genuinely curious because as I see it real inflation for most of our baskets of goods and services is likely closer to 10-15% a year not the BS 2% they would like you to believe via CPI. Money in a savings account is effectively holding a melting ice cube. when the “bird in the hand” equates to a savings account Im genuinely curious where the better alternative is than crypto right now? Personally, I’m planning on exiting my crypto positions later this year into a few different alternatives I just don’t see the current market as particularly frothy at the moment. Still too much upside opportunity. Of course, I’m not leveraged and have very little personal debt so it’s easy for me to take that position. Let’s see.
  10. Taking profits now has considerable risks when taking into account the opportunity costs. Every choice has opportunity costs. A few questions for you: 1. Where do you park your new realized profits and why? 2. From this point forward do you expect global financial systems to find equilibrium and stability? Do you expect G20 currencies to avoid BOTH inflation and deflation? 3. Do you see the network effects of broad digital asset adoption and utility reversing? If so, why? I ask these questions because the one thing that is quite clear is that BTC and digital assets as a whole thrive in chaos and destabilization. I don’t see a path forward from here where the legacy system offers slow, steady growth given the enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus.
  11. The stock to flow models have BTC between 84 and 100k by August then it levels off for a few years. We’ve seen historically upside and downside deviations from this line particularly in 2013, 2017 and I’m betting once again this year. Interestingly, once BTC breaks upwards beyond the s2f model it usually takes 45-60 days before the blow off top and subsequent bear market. I think the most likely scenario is the top somewhere later this year and as high as $375k but most likely something in the $175-250k range. Fun times ahead. Of course I’m expecting greater multiples from ETH and still greater multiples from XRP,VET and others to the upside... and subsequently downside. But maybe this time is very different?!? Hope everyone has a plan in place.
  12. I’ve always lived by the adage that you treat everyone well as you have no idea what battles they are fighting which you know nothing about. I’m so sorry to hear about your fathers loss. At the same time it’s really encouraging to hear how excited you are for your children’s future. My children are very close in age to yours and I feel the same. Ray Dalio says that Growth often comes through pain plus reflection and you seem to be smart enough to learn from past experiences which is great to see. That experience you’ll pass along to your kids will be worth more than XRP at $24 later this year. Good luck to you and hold on to that FLR!
  13. Something I’ve been thinking about as well as hearing from Raoul Pal is the fact that at least some of this price appreciation is likely due to the denominator losing value. It may be hard to see because every single major Global currency has had to issue various forms of QE. For those with specific exit $ targets it might be prudent to add a bit of premium to that given it’s likely devalued a bit. Just because the USD/EUR or USD/GBP have traded in historic ranges doesn’t mean they both aren’t a little shittier than they were 2 years ago. All that being said I’m really liking what I’m seeing in the digital asset space. The stock to flow model has been absolutely beautiful to watch with BTC. My base case is probably another 5-8 months of historic gains with 3-4 corrections in the 30-40% range sprinkled in. Each of those corrections will have all our old friends like @Moonrakerpopping up seemingly out of nowhere to say hello. It’ll be fun to see how far things deviate from this base case
  14. I should probably allocate some of my shitcoin exits later this year into silver. Whats making that type of play less appealing is the Stablecoin yield on Celsius, BlockFI, Next, etc... What resources do you use for research into the space? Id love to read more about the silver oxide battery outperformance. As for Lithium I bought PLL Piedmont Lithium in the $40 range. They redomiciled from Australia to the US and have a contract with Tesla. I'm seeing a trend towards the US going to great lengths to tie up local supply chains for natural resources so that should prove helpful. They also just brought on the former Albemarle COO which should prove helpful for growth. For Uranium I just bought the URNM ETF as I liked the allocation and the fees are reasonable. I look at these as 7-10 year holds.
  15. Hey @Alluvial I don't own any Silver but looked at it seriously before buying into a few different Lithium and Uranium plays. Perhaps they are considered a little further out on the risk curve by most than Silver? Although, you and I both own XRP so that's about all thats needed to know about how comfortable we are venturing out to the far reaches of the risk curve. The data I was looking it regarding serious supply crunches in combination with huge upside demand pressure looked really interesting. They both look to be setup well from a regulatory perspective as they will likely be a big part of the global ESG and Green investment push thats just getting started.
  16. I disagree. The US govt can certainly close down the on and off ramps for US citizens however there is huge risk in massive capital flight that would dwarf anything we've ever seen. Also, this very act would demonstrate incredible weakness in terms of the values that the US was established by and for whether you agree with them or not.
  17. Have you tried Uphold?
  18. Oh, they must have shifted a bit from the previous schedule. That’s fine and thanks for the correction.
  19. Yes, we should receive 30% of our FLR in May or June (followed by 1-2% per month for a few years) and I’d expect alt season to extend out until later in the year.
  20. Exactly. In fact, while the CPI figures are "right on track" for the Fed estimates I know a lot of very smart people that feel CPI isn't a very good representation of inflation for most people. Many of those same people feel that at least some of the recent asset price appreciation is due to the underlying FIAT weakness. The Fed would like us all to believe that inflation may be coming and we'll even gladly accept 2+% but we just aren't seeing that yet. Also, thanks @lucky for explaining the BTC incentive structure much more eloquently than I ever could. I'm beginning to wonder how BTC would react should we actually pull off nuclear fusion. Maybe in the next 7-8 years?
  21. but, but, but BTC is great because its the catalyst for real change and expresses the need and urgency of renewable energy sources, lol. Its a wonderful spin and I can already see the CNBC debates happening in Oct.
  22. Lucky I'm gonna predict that an important catalyst for the next bear market later this year will be the increasing awareness of BTC's energy demands. I saw some recent estimates that BTC at $250,000 later this year will be responsible for 10% of the entire globe's energy demands! Thats insane. Perhaps a big one week or ten day blow off top in the $175-350k range?
  23. Yes, I recently invested in Crowdz's Series A alongside some really top tier VC firms. Crowdz is built on Ethereum to provide an SME invoice auction marketplace where funders can bid to purchase invoices providing optionality for SME’s to choose the most competitive rate. Crowdz also provides large corporates the ability to provide white label Supply Chain Finance as a Service (SCFaaS) on top of its marketplace model making it the first in the world to provide Supply Chain Finance as a Service (SCFaaS). The platform grew from 450 customers in Jan 2020 to 26k in December as of a couple of months ago when I committed. I didn't realize that late payments cost SMEs as much as $3 trillion globally, with 1 in 10 invoices failing to be paid on time. My hope is that Flare captures some of these types of innovative business leveraging blockchain and smart contracts.
  24. The only real defense is holding.
  25. This is consistent with Hester's comments from the other day on Real Vision. This is also consistent with most level-headed analysis of the proceedings. My interpretation is that there will most likely be some settlement indicating wrongdoing by Brad, Chris and potentially, though less likely Ripple itself. In the course of this it will be decided that the asset itself, XRP, is in fact not a security. The sad fact is that should this likely scenario play out most XRP holders in the US who sold on the way down will likely face a far more expensive re-entry on the way back up due to the lag in US exchanges re-opening access. We will probably learn of the settlement a day or two before its announced via enormous price action upwards.
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