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Everything posted by automatic

  1. First things first - past performance does not guarantee future results. Having said that, current setup does resemble 2013/2014. If the history were to repeat itself, and assuming that the stock market doesn't tank in the meantime, then I would expect a choppy but sustained ascent back into high-50s/low60s followed by a brief (lasting weeks rather than months) and violent breakout to 100k+.
  2. My money is on BTC having at least one or two more legs up this year. We needed a cool off period, and now we got it. I'm reloading on the way down.
  3. Yeah, BTC looks to be all out of "61k bounces". It's all just compression at this point, and when it punches through it should do so with conviction. Also, 100k is a good extension target and not just a figure of speech in case anyone was wondering.
  4. Ah, that sweet smell of xrp 43% daily gain. Nice to see you too, it's been a while; how've you been, wife and kids still doing ok?
  5. Yes, the timing lines up with my view. As far as magnitude is concerned.. that is anyone's guess, although this seems reasonable. I should add that there still exists a risk that instead of breaking 60k BTC rolls over instead and heads down to mid 40s. This would signal a prolonged trading season and invalidate the timing depicted in the cart.
  6. Yes, xrp has been sucking for some time now. At the same time, the chart setup is quite good AND btc is rising. If btc keeps going up, chances are more than good that it will push xrp sufficiently higher to trigger a technical breakout. Lawsuit/no lawsuit/utility/no utility/your feelings/my feelings/hopes and dreams are irrelevant. The setup is purely technical.
  7. xrp/usd cup and handle on the hourly residing within a cup and handle on the daily. If it breaks upwards, it should do so violently.
  8. Yes we do, straight down the crapper along with BTC. lol circling the drain is fun! But yes, alts are showing some *mild* resilience. How they behave with respect to BTC once it begins to rebound will be key to whether the alt season starts in earnest. If they start rising in tandem, then we may be onto something. Otherwise, it could be more of the same for a while.
  9. I don't know. At the end of the day we are all just guessing, but based on the way alts are behaving at the moment I'd say that any significant pullback in BTC could spark a bull run in alts.
  10. Yes, that is what I'm saying: if BTC closes at 75-80K in the next 2-3 weeks, then we are looking at an early cycle peak in May or June. If it falls out of the ascending triangle prior to then, then I have no idea. More data points (more time) would be needed to determine the new pattern in that case.
  11. Moment of truth fast approaching for BTC. From here it either falls outside of its ascending triangle down to 35-40k range and we have a prolonged trading season (EOY), or it launches up to 80k keeping the season on a fast trajectory (May-June).
  12. Solid advice. When it comes to crypto, I would revise and expand this to include: 3) Limit long-term holding to deflationary coins only. 4) Don't chase mooning coins.
  13. Lol guys, maybe I'll rephrase in a more neutral way. How's this: BTC needs to break downwards out of its current ascending triangle, and do so in the next six weeks, if we are to have two alt seasons this year. If we are in early April and BTC breaks the triangle to the upside, then the countdown timer starts and you have about a month to get out of BTC and two months (if we are lucky) to get out of alts. Keep this scenario in mind when planning your approach.
  14. Marlboro Lights. Also, you are missing the point; see what @Plikk wrote. Lastly, think of all the funds that would have to flow into the market to reach BTC price of 200k+ by the end of the year. What do you think would happen to the price if all such monies entered into the market in the next 8 weeks instead? It's a gamble. Either you make a boatload of money, or you lose no more than 40% (xrp is well supported in the upper 20c-low 30c range) by the time the bull run ends. It seems like a decent calculated risk, but it's a risk nonetheless. How would you feel if everything else mooned except for xrp? Figure that out and you'll have your answer.
  15. Then you watch in panic as bulk of your crypto paper riches evaporate in front of your eyes within days. No sooner than the panic subsides, it is replaced by soul-tormenting agony of watching anything that remains being slowly washed away by the outgoing tide for the next two years. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: alt season between the time that BTC goes parabolic and the time that it completes its dead cat bounce!
  16. Upwards narrowing triangle on BTC with a focal point between late May and mid July. Two taps against the upper trendline roughly 5 weeks apart, corresponding to impulse waves 1 and 2. Back in 2017, duration of time between impulse waves 2-3 was similar to that as between 1-2. Using the same measurement this year places the peak of impulse wave 3 at five weeks from Feb 20th at 75-80k. This is where normal bull runs can reasonably be expected to come to their end, however BTC has historically flipped the upper trendline after the 3rd tap and gone parabolic. If that does occur, the resulting parabolic impulse is unlikely to be longer in duration than waves leading to that point, meaning 5 weeks. Combine with prior 5 weeks and add some time to allow for margin of error and you end up with May 15th +/- two weeks. Once this upper trendline breaks, the next level of resistance will be the upper line of a broadening wedge established by the initial climb - projected to be somewhere between 180-200k in late April. Similar line lead to rejection of BTC at 20k in 2017, and the same could happen here. However, back in 2013 even this secondary resistance got broken to the upside, leading to further 8x gain. Current combination of low miner supplies, incoming US stimulus checks, and extremely fast moving BTC price (blindsides people forcing them to play catch-up thus adding latent buying pressure) makes me think that a similar scenario could play out again. Thus $1m BTC by May 15th.
  17. This is starting to look more like 2013 and less like 2017 with every minute that passes by. $1m BTC by May 15th anyone?
  18. For the sake of full disclosure, there's a fair amount of hopium in those two charts. Personally I don't have much faith in that xrp/btc setup and would bet that it'll end up breaking downwards. xrp/usd setup looks much more promising, but it needs to retest the bottom (30s) before it turns into something meaningful. A breakdown in xrp/btc could actually help drive forward the pattern in xrp/usd. And lastly - all of this could also be nothing more than confirmation bias; if you look at first half of 2019 xrp/usd, a similar pattern emerges but then breaks down completely. It is feasible that our current setup could lead to the same outcome.
  19. I hear you like to smoke that kind stuff. Here, have a puff of this:
  20. For alts yes, for BTC no. Since BTC leads the market, if it runs and then tanks anything else will be irrelevant. Every good P&D requires a horde of retail investors who are 1) late to the game and 2) believe that the price of whatever will keep going up. I get a sense that there is a good chance that this year that horde will include everyone who thinks that this will play out like 2017 and will in turn be caught off guard when the party wraps early. Of course, I'm only speculating here. My crystal ball is no better than anyone else's.
  21. All of that sounds perfectly reasonable, but unfortunately the chart suggests something else. As compared to 2017, things are moving much more quickly this time around. It could be that investors came prepared for the bull run, or that BTC has become much more of a household name and is drawing increased retail participation, or that speculators are flush with cash from the stock market recovery and are pouring gains into crypto. Whatever the reason, recent BTC price action has been much frothier than in 2017 and cycle times much shorter. At this pace we are looking at a parabolic BTC run starting in April and wrapping up before the summer starts. Whether those BTC gains subsequently rotate into alts, and then rotate back into BTC to fuel the next impulse remains to be seen. I wish things were different, but BTC chart screams "speculation", and ignoring the time frames at play seems like a recipe for getting burned. I'd recommend keeping an eye on BTC and considering the scenario above in play if BTC manages to crack 75K by end of this month. On a happier note, if this does play out then everyone here is about to become a lot richer in the next three months.
  22. It leads to 75-80k range by end of March, followed by a brief pullback, followed by parabolic action to 150k-350k, followed by moon boys crashing back down to earth again. That's what the log chart says anyway.
  23. ...or it could be setting up for a short squeeze. Seems more than plausible considering recent mooning events in random alts.
  24. $1 and beyond IMO. 80c has somehow turned into a major LT resistance, first establishing itself during the 2018 fall pump, and then twice in the past couple of months. That makes it three taps thus far. Since decent buying pressure will be needed to break through resistance, once 80c resistance falls the amassed buying pressure should push the price much higher with ease.
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