Jump to content

automatic

Silver Member
  • Content Count

    1,446
  • Joined

  • Last visited

5 Followers

About automatic

  • Rank
    Veteran

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Yes, but the behavioral undercurrent will vary based on how individual cryptos were set up. The fact that drew me to BTC back in the day was its fixed supply. Fixed supply + increasing demand = exponential price increase in the long term. Add hodlers to the mix = reduced circulating supply = compounded exponential price increase in the long term. Now take something like BNB, for which both of the above hold true, but then insert quarterly token burn: further compounded exponential price increase in the long term. These cryptos are inherently deflationary and thus excellent for hodling. Now take xrp - it has a fixed supply, it has hodlers, it will presumably have significant real-world utility, it has inherent token burn.... and it also has 1/2 of its supply locked up by Ripple who will gradually release it to the market over the next 15 years. This is the exact factor that is going to be exerting constant downward pressure on the xrp price for some time to come. Yes, there will be periods where hodling+fomo+utility demand greatly exceed the selling pressure and cause the price to moon, but as soon as the dust settles the price will drift back down due to constant and ongoing selling pressure. IMO - this alone is the reason that xrp behaves like it does (dead in the water... until it isn't), and that exact inflationary behavior will continue until all xrp have been released to the market. In other words: 15 more years of bipolar brain damage. On a brighter note, this also means that xrp will continue to be very well suited for swing trading for the next 15 years. Sell the runs into one of the cryptos that are already deflationary, and then buy back in once xrp tanks because it *will* pull back. Rinse and repeat, and enjoy ungodly gains.
  2. That could be because of ever-present selling pressure since Escrow was put in place. Hard to do a TA analysis on an asset whose supply is ever-increasing and as a result constantly changing that asset's behavior and diluting its movements.
  3. "ANA reported, in an interview with a community radio station, that Mbatha said his business was above board. He said the deposits made into his Bitcoin Wallet were taken and re-invested in bitcoins. He said after some time he cashed in from the cryptocurrency by simply selling it back to the market at a higher price."
  4. Bottom in the 9-10k range would return it to the trendline. Stabilization in this range would be a buy signal in my book.
  5. FYI - Binance indicated they will be opening US-specific site this fall (www.binance.us). In the meantime, take a look at Kraken.
  6. We are in the last leg of that flag, so our overall near-term direction depends on which way the flag breaks. Hoping for a bounce off of that lower trendline and a reversal+break higher. xrp/btc is bouncing off the mini upper trend line at the moment, and btc looks like it may find stability at the current level; if all of those play out, then the setup would be decent for the aforementioned reversal and an upwards break.
  7. I think that the sentiment around here also supports the above assertion. Is there really anyone around who thinks that BTC will not crack 20-30k? Even if we look at BTC recent run from the perspective of price manipulation, there is a lot of fuel left in the market to push BTC much higher. Most alts are at multi-year lows in relation to BTC; manipulators could easily pour some BTC gains into alts to push them higher, sell them at higher prices back into BTC to trigger another leg up, and then rinse and repeat until the entire market is grossly overbought. We are nowhere close to that point yet.
  8. Agreed. People will always follow the path of least resistance; if Libra solves a problem and is integrated in a seamless, easy to use fashion, then it *will* be used. Privacy concerns, backing/redeemability implications etc require a level of literacy that most people simply do not possess and probably don't give a **** about. The end result is that FB is about to offer an innovative service to a significant portion of world's population, and the only two things standing in their way are regulators, and FB themselves fking this up... which is highly plausible for a multitude of reasons already discussed. Only time will tell whether this thing they are tinkering with is a treasure chest or Pandora's box.
  9. How would that work? If Libra is fully backed, then a collapse of any single backing asset would make it lose its full redeemability and essentially render it Tether 2.0. Diversifying backing assets in this instance compounds the risk rather than mitigate it; CDOs anyone?
  10. This. Even if we put antitrust laws aside, this is still going to be a regulatory minefield for FB. One thing is for sure - watching this unfold will not be boring.
  11. Key whitepaper excerpt: "Instead of backing Libra with gold, though, it will be backed by a collection of low-volatility assets, such as bank deposits and short-term government securities in currencies from stable and reputable central banks. It is important to highlight that this means one Libra will not always be able to convert into the same amount of a given local currency (i.e., Libra is not a “peg” to a single currency). Rather, as the value of the underlying assets moves, the value of one Libra in any local currency may fluctuate. However, the reserve assets are being chosen to minimize volatility, so holders of Libra can trust the currency’s ability to preserve value over time. The assets in the Libra Reserve will be held by a geographically distributed network of custodians with investment-grade credit rating to provide both security and decentralization of the assets." In essence, Libra is a money market fund wrapped in blockchain and hypothetically accessible globally. Personally, I think that this is a brilliant move from Facebook both in a business sense and social responsibility manner. Large portion of world's population remains unbanked, and those that do bank struggle with savings unless they have a fair amount of financial education and know where/how to save (invest) their money. Libra seems like it addresses the problem of access to banking, but if it also manages to address inflation protection of underlying funds then Facebook could really be onto something. If all of this works, then yes it could eat into Ripple's pie on the individual remittance front (displaced by FB-to-FB transfers), and yes it could be quite disruptive to the personal banking system. And oh yeah - to that other "store of value" out there as well (cough, Bitcoin, cough). On the other hand, money market funds are "funds" and not "money", meaning that they are only as valuable as the backing assets and/or money manager's ability to hold such assets in a manner that maintains fund's valuation. Although the risk should in theory be low, chances of some catastrophic economic event (i.e. the crash of 2008) wiping out the backing assets and thus tanking the entire fund are nonetheless not zero. That are many other things that come to mind, but this post is already way too long. It'll be interesting to see how all of this plays out.
  12. Yeah, I remember. Just wanted to pose the question to see if my logic passes the test with our resident legal members and similar subject matter experts.
  13. So - does this announcement also serve as a definitive proof that xrp is NOT a security? Ripple invested in a publicly traded company on a pretext of that company leveraging xRapid/xrp in production. It seems highly likely that this move might have ran into regulatory objections if xrp was in fact an unregistered security. Based on the fact that this went through, can we safely kill two birds with once stone here and conclude that once and for all that xrp is not a security?
  14. I will be front-running all of you suckers at 117x
×
×
  • Create New...