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Everything posted by Mpolnet

  1. Yessir. See the chart below for the MVRV ratio for BTC going back to 2013. The MVRV and associated price for the tops are as follow: Nov 17, 2013 the price of BTC peaked at ~$1,151 and had an MVRV of 418.7% (4.18x). On Dec 13, 2017 the price of BTC peaked at ~$16,624 (based on the below chart data) and had an MVRV of 328.65% (or 3.28x). As of Dec 9, 2020 the price of BTC hit ~$18,333 and had an MVRV of 150.09% (or 1.5x). Mind you, on June 19, 2019 the price of BTC was ~$13,017 while the MVRV ratio was 131.56% (or 1.31x). Given that the MVRV was similar in 2019 to where it is now, that could in
  2. Exactly! On-chain data seems to provide various indicators of whether or not price may have room to go. Candidly, I think it shows price movement in lock step with on-chain metrics so it's more of a in the moment analysis based on a specific point in time rather than an actual forecaster. For example, looking at the MVRV metric, while it doesn't tell us when price will move (up or down) it does provide an indication of whether the price has room to move, whether it be up or down, based on historical levels of said metric.
  3. Thanks for the detailed thoughts on your views of the stock to flow model! You make some valid points - I like your thoughts on Jed's selling pressure creating a potential support line. Would be interested to see your valuation model on XRP based on demand if you're able to share
  4. Based on where the MVRV ratio peaked in the last cycle I would say we have a lot of room to run still. In 2017 we went from an XRP price of <$0.01 to ~$0.39, at which point the MVRV peaked at 1864.07% before dropping to 474.88% (which indicates holders had an 18x average profit before it dropped to 4x+ in profit on average) before finally going back up to 789.22% where price peaked at ~$3.11. As of yesterday the MVRV was at 82.94% with a quoted XRP price of ~$0.57. This tells us that on average current holders have a ~83% on their position. Past data doesn't indicate future performance
  5. Hi all, I haven't followed or posted in this thread for a while now. I recently signed up for Santiment and have started learning the metrics they calculate based on on-chain data and how it can be used to predict price movements or if an asset is under or overvalued. Having said that, I wanted to share some data I got from Santiment with this thread regarding where we may be in the cycle and how much room price has to run. Opening up the floor to comments and questions as always. Below is a chart showing the MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value) ratio for various periods during XRP's tra
  6. @jbjnr - thanks for the update and the in depth chart analysis! This is incredibly helpful. Great to see ODL volume picking up with smaller value transfers. @JASCoder - appreciate your charts as well! Wanted to ask if you are both familiar with PlanB's stock to flow valuation model? If so, I was wondering if it would be possible to use a similar methodology and apply it towards XRP? My thinking was in order to more accurately do this for XRP we would need to include a forecast for burned XRP that's then factored into the current stock (i.e existing number of tokens in circulation). We wou
  7. "FXRP safely allows an XRP holder (an originator) to send their XRP to a set of addresses (called agents) on the XRP Ledger. The FXRP smart contracts on Flare then issue the originator FXRP on Flare which is 1:1 convertible with XRP and secured with Spark. When a holder of FXRP wishes to redeem it for XRP ( a redeemer) they send it back to the FXRP smart contracts on Flare. The agents then send the XRP to the redeemers address on the XRP ledger. If the agents don’t complete this redemption quickly enough the redeemer is compensated the value of their XRP plus an amount to compensate for transa
  8. @KarmaCoverage Thanks, I saw this video. My question was more oriented towards how FXRP would be distributed to XRP holders when the Spark network/token is launched. I'm assuming exchanges would need to serve as the middleman to distribute the FXRP tokens? EDIT: Looks like they mention working with exchanges in order to distribute the FXRP per the link provided. Thanks for sharing that. https://flare.ghost.io/theflarenetwork/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  9. Does anyone know how the spark tokens will be distributed? Do exchanges have to list the native spark token then distribute the FXRP token to XRP holders?
  10. Didn't realize buy backs of company assets was generally categorized as a "bad" thing. Someone should call Tim Cook and tell him he's created no shareholder value through all the buybacks he's conducted Buy backs are considered back when the shares are being bought back above the intrinsic value of the underlying security. They're not bad when the intrinsic value of the underlying security is above the current market price. This a key difference hence why share buybacks can't be painted with a broad brush and classified as "bad" across the board. Determining the intrinsic value of crypto
  11. Interesting that Ripple is now providing an NVT ratio calculation. Love the way these reports are evolving to include more detail about the ecosystem. Great to see they're finally buying up XRP on secondary markets (effectively the same as share buybacks in my mind).
  12. Interesting comments from David Schwartz regarding yesterday's article from Ripple hopefully providing further clarity. Per the comments, my take is that ODL volume has primarily been comprised of treasury payments and from there the company in charge of those treasury payments sends/allocates the payouts as necessary. The main pitch of using XRP is high throughput low fees thereby making smaller payments not only cost efficient but feasible to execute (EX: sending $5 when the wire fee is $5+ - no one will take on this type of transaction). Ripple's article provided no mention that larger
  13. @TplusZero - hoping you can provide more in depth analysis than the clever comment above
  14. This is an incredible analysis - thanks for sharing! Can you please elaborate what the % next to XRP, per the below, refer to?
  15. @Molten - looking at BTC in the $3k - $4k range. Would make my first BTC purchase ever lol but assuming PlanB’s Stock to Flow model holds up price should recover to $9k - $10k range. However, not sure how the liquidity crunch has been affecting prices aside from some liquidations on leveraged positions. Hopefully, this period marks the inflow of new capital into the space that may have been on the sidelines given where prices are. I’ve been using Bitrue to stake certain assets in their Power Piggy platform and have been reinvesting the earned interest into other tokens to build posit
  16. This is incredible! Would love it if you have time and are able to post this chart with weekly updates?
  17. Thanks @JASCoder! To confirm the above analysis, an arbitrage opportunity exists for market makers based on current XRP prices at Bitso? Does this indicate prices need to rise or decline in order for the arbitrage opportunity to go away? Or does this imply that market makers are more likely to buy XRP at current prices and profit from the current arbitrage opportunity? If it's the latter, what is the effect on XRP's price?
  18. I'm fairly sure AK Bank is a Ripple partner. Assuming this is the case then this article is pretty interesting. Maybe Binance is exploring the potential of becoming an ODL partner (even thought they've been pretty quiet about this when asked directly)? Turkish Lira a future ODL corridor? https://cryptobriefing.com/binance-adds-turkish-lira-onramp-through-akbank-partnership/
  19. Really solid video in my opinion. Definitely a bit rushed and I love David for his intellect and passion. Not sure how technical the audience was (I hope they were predominately computer scientist) because man was this convo high level on a lot of technical aspects. I do agree with his view that the initial promise of blockchain was to eliminate rent seekers so if that's the promise of this new technology it's hard to argue against no incentives and how incentives introduce friction. However, arguing for incentives is also understandable so it's definitely a worthwhile topic of discussion. Def
  20. This explains the $8.9MM funding from Ripple to Moneygram in Q4 being treated as a contra expense! While there's been no clear regulatory guidance at least it's encouraging to see the SEC's understanding of properly treating incentives in order to build out a modern day digital payments network.
  21. It's treated this way because the $8.9MM given to MGI was for the offset of operational cost associated with the funds received hence a contra expense. It actually doesn't lower taxable income since it's a wash. However, what it does is provide an incentive to grow the system since this $8.9MM was likely associated with slippage, thus an offset of expenses rather than revenue. The system needs to grow in order to achieve operational economies of scale, which is typically where cost savings are realized. Helping mitigate the expenses associated with growing the system should be viewed as a posi
  22. This! @Chris_Reeves I saw you had a twitter post related to this. I'm assuming the classification is relevant given how it affects the taxable income but was hoping you could confirm/provide broader insight into your thoughts? EDIT: Assuming a lower taxable income is the end result, this would actually increase the amount of capital that could be deployed in other areas, which otherwise would have been a tax hit.
  23. Great feedback! Thank you also @Mitty for keeping this thread up to date. I've yet to actually use Cred but I do hold LBA . I use Bitrue for interest earning purposes which I then allocate into other coins. They just released the ability to stake BTR to earn a higher rate so effectively doing the same as Cred with the LBA token.
  24. Better than having been invested and selling before it broke $0.25! But hey that's just the nature of investing - can't get caught up on the past and miss out on future opportunities.
  25. Can't wait for the days when we're processing $100MM on a weekly basis. Hopefully that level of utility/demand will help establish a floor for the price but who knows. Could very well play out that as ODL volume increase so does trading volume such that the current ratio of trading volume to utility volume stays the same. But you would think this scenario would also have a positive impact on price given the fixed supply.
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