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Mpolnet

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About Mpolnet

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    Regular

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Interests
    XRP, Crypto Assets, DLT, Finance & Real Estate
  • Location
    United States
  • Occupation
    Analyst

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  1. Yessir. See the chart below for the MVRV ratio for BTC going back to 2013. The MVRV and associated price for the tops are as follow: Nov 17, 2013 the price of BTC peaked at ~$1,151 and had an MVRV of 418.7% (4.18x). On Dec 13, 2017 the price of BTC peaked at ~$16,624 (based on the below chart data) and had an MVRV of 328.65% (or 3.28x). As of Dec 9, 2020 the price of BTC hit ~$18,333 and had an MVRV of 150.09% (or 1.5x). Mind you, on June 19, 2019 the price of BTC was ~$13,017 while the MVRV ratio was 131.56% (or 1.31x). Given that the MVRV was similar in 2019 to where it is now, that could in
  2. Exactly! On-chain data seems to provide various indicators of whether or not price may have room to go. Candidly, I think it shows price movement in lock step with on-chain metrics so it's more of a in the moment analysis based on a specific point in time rather than an actual forecaster. For example, looking at the MVRV metric, while it doesn't tell us when price will move (up or down) it does provide an indication of whether the price has room to move, whether it be up or down, based on historical levels of said metric.
  3. Thanks for the detailed thoughts on your views of the stock to flow model! You make some valid points - I like your thoughts on Jed's selling pressure creating a potential support line. Would be interested to see your valuation model on XRP based on demand if you're able to share
  4. Based on where the MVRV ratio peaked in the last cycle I would say we have a lot of room to run still. In 2017 we went from an XRP price of <$0.01 to ~$0.39, at which point the MVRV peaked at 1864.07% before dropping to 474.88% (which indicates holders had an 18x average profit before it dropped to 4x+ in profit on average) before finally going back up to 789.22% where price peaked at ~$3.11. As of yesterday the MVRV was at 82.94% with a quoted XRP price of ~$0.57. This tells us that on average current holders have a ~83% on their position. Past data doesn't indicate future performance
  5. Hi all, I haven't followed or posted in this thread for a while now. I recently signed up for Santiment and have started learning the metrics they calculate based on on-chain data and how it can be used to predict price movements or if an asset is under or overvalued. Having said that, I wanted to share some data I got from Santiment with this thread regarding where we may be in the cycle and how much room price has to run. Opening up the floor to comments and questions as always. Below is a chart showing the MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value) ratio for various periods during XRP's tra
  6. @jbjnr - thanks for the update and the in depth chart analysis! This is incredibly helpful. Great to see ODL volume picking up with smaller value transfers. @JASCoder - appreciate your charts as well! Wanted to ask if you are both familiar with PlanB's stock to flow valuation model? If so, I was wondering if it would be possible to use a similar methodology and apply it towards XRP? My thinking was in order to more accurately do this for XRP we would need to include a forecast for burned XRP that's then factored into the current stock (i.e existing number of tokens in circulation). We wou
  7. "FXRP safely allows an XRP holder (an originator) to send their XRP to a set of addresses (called agents) on the XRP Ledger. The FXRP smart contracts on Flare then issue the originator FXRP on Flare which is 1:1 convertible with XRP and secured with Spark. When a holder of FXRP wishes to redeem it for XRP ( a redeemer) they send it back to the FXRP smart contracts on Flare. The agents then send the XRP to the redeemers address on the XRP ledger. If the agents don’t complete this redemption quickly enough the redeemer is compensated the value of their XRP plus an amount to compensate for transa
  8. @KarmaCoverage Thanks, I saw this video. My question was more oriented towards how FXRP would be distributed to XRP holders when the Spark network/token is launched. I'm assuming exchanges would need to serve as the middleman to distribute the FXRP tokens? EDIT: Looks like they mention working with exchanges in order to distribute the FXRP per the link provided. Thanks for sharing that. https://flare.ghost.io/theflarenetwork/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  9. Does anyone know how the spark tokens will be distributed? Do exchanges have to list the native spark token then distribute the FXRP token to XRP holders?
  10. Didn't realize buy backs of company assets was generally categorized as a "bad" thing. Someone should call Tim Cook and tell him he's created no shareholder value through all the buybacks he's conducted Buy backs are considered back when the shares are being bought back above the intrinsic value of the underlying security. They're not bad when the intrinsic value of the underlying security is above the current market price. This a key difference hence why share buybacks can't be painted with a broad brush and classified as "bad" across the board. Determining the intrinsic value of crypto
  11. Interesting that Ripple is now providing an NVT ratio calculation. Love the way these reports are evolving to include more detail about the ecosystem. Great to see they're finally buying up XRP on secondary markets (effectively the same as share buybacks in my mind).
  12. Interesting comments from David Schwartz regarding yesterday's article from Ripple hopefully providing further clarity. Per the comments, my take is that ODL volume has primarily been comprised of treasury payments and from there the company in charge of those treasury payments sends/allocates the payouts as necessary. The main pitch of using XRP is high throughput low fees thereby making smaller payments not only cost efficient but feasible to execute (EX: sending $5 when the wire fee is $5+ - no one will take on this type of transaction). Ripple's article provided no mention that larger
  13. @TplusZero - hoping you can provide more in depth analysis than the clever comment above
  14. This is an incredible analysis - thanks for sharing! Can you please elaborate what the % next to XRP, per the below, refer to?
  15. @Molten - looking at BTC in the $3k - $4k range. Would make my first BTC purchase ever lol but assuming PlanB’s Stock to Flow model holds up price should recover to $9k - $10k range. However, not sure how the liquidity crunch has been affecting prices aside from some liquidations on leveraged positions. Hopefully, this period marks the inflow of new capital into the space that may have been on the sidelines given where prices are. I’ve been using Bitrue to stake certain assets in their Power Piggy platform and have been reinvesting the earned interest into other tokens to build posit
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