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7Sol

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  1. Around last september, tired of XRP slow draft, I started selling most of my XRP as price was moving up. I ended getting at an average of 0.26. It was an eye opener to watch price go up with little XRP at hand. I also got the strong sense of missing on something of importance as if I had jumped ship. I sold because I started wondering if I had just gotten addicted to the idea XRP would rekindle with the massive moves of yesteryear. I watched the price go up, confident it would go down, yet relieved when in end of November XRP started going down again. Bitcoin started going down too, so I got busy trying to hedge my portfolio, shorting BTC and ETH on a leveraged basis in equal dollar amount to my portfolio. I bought XRP back a few days ago at 19.5 cents, more XRP than I sold, but this time using Bitmex futures contract. The bizarre part is that the march contract is selling at a discount of 10 to 15 satoshi which means that close to expiration that gap will move towards zero. Not only the contract is cheaper than the actual XRP rate on the exchanges, but when buying limit Bitmex pays you a commission of 0.05%. I increasingly got involved in hedging my portfolio. The entire space is linked to the whereabouts of Bitcoin. XRPBTC is telling the all story. Am I underperforming the entire crypto market or am I grasping shares of that market? As you did, I decided to act.
  2. XRP Futures already existed on Bitmex. Part of the answer to the question lays in observing trading on BTC and ETH "perpetual contract", a derivative based on an index of actual prices on the exchange. Volume on XBTUSD contract, (2 to 14 Billion dollars a day) outshines any other venue that I am aware of. The overall leverage of traders is in the 10% range, 100x is allowed vs. 75x on Binance. 10% leverage would mean with XRPUSD at 0.20 USD a move to 0.22 USD would wipe out the shorter. It is customary on the XBTUSD contract for sudden 100 millions to 250 millions to shove the market up or down in the matter of minutes. When the price difference between the derivative and the actual BTC gaps to a certain delta it becomes profitable for arbitrager bots to sell the derivative, buy the actual on the exchanges or vice versa. Volume traders can operate commission free. Part of the equation is that Bitmex pays market makers as well as anyone willing to make an offer, that is trade limit. 0.05% on alt coin futures contracts 0.025% on ETH and XBT perpetual contracts It does mean being paid a commission instead of paying a commission. This translates into a price differential of about 5 US. One can sell XBT at 7500, buy back at 7508 and still make 2 USD per 7500. Here lays the intrisic mechanism driving the increase of volatility. Market makers (a major one being affiliated to Bitmex) always sell in a rising market, buy in falling market. The cat and mouse game favors pushing prices up and down by pulling the offer upwards or downwards, meaning stop making the market regardless of the exchange price, unless an overwhelming amount of real exchange orders stabilizes price. When a lot of buyers line up at a price, price will tend to move away, unless of course some other party, another bot or a natural person makes an offer. In short bots will probe the market by pushing it one way or another, assess the market reaction and keep going till some significant offers are met either on the derivative market or on the exchange. Throw in the mist orders from real people, either speculating on margin, hedging (meaning leverage sell while either hodling the actual crypto or leverage buy planning to buy the coin later), plus large buy and sell orders, private or institutional, hidden market orders, iceberg orders (orders hidden in part), chassing pockets of liquidity and stops. The mitigating factor is the funding rate which hoovers around 30% a year on XBTUSD and 60% a year on ETHUSD. That rate paid or received is calculated based on the difference between the contract and the exchanges price index. The rationale is that someone has to pay or be compensated for that gap as that difference is borrowed or lent. Keep in mind that all those contracts settle in BTC, not a single ETH or XRP ever transits through that platform. Bottom line, market profile has evolved. I hear a whisper in traditional markets that 50% of trading volume would be bot related. Those programs, sometimes automatically trained (machine learning), are statistics based. I expect strength and weakness to be magnified. Futures also increase the ability of actors to influence price with a fraction of the capital.
  3. I love the idea of asking people to match the donation. I had considered the idea of giving away to a few friends when XRP reached its highs. Matching donation incites to vote using disposable income. What if the road to 100K goes through 10K, 4K, 20K, 12K, 40K, 18K, 35K, 12K, 50K ... How do you anticipate one can handle losing 28K in potential appreciation?
  4. Reading answers in this thread, I've come to wonder if the best time to communicate about cryptos is during market declines or near bottom right now. By bottom, I mean even if BTC goes back towards 6000, that would be good positioning to enter.
  5. For me it's a bit of a "no brainer" as from the technical viewpoint XRP as many other cryptos aare a database secured by many parties. People like to use the word "decentralized". I view it as a vault for knowledge very difficult to tamper with. From the financial side, cryptos implement triple entry accounting, that is transactions are instant reconciled. A transaction is equivalent to a debit a credit and a receipt. There is zero benefit in auditing XRP, BTC and other transactions compared to a bank account where accountants have to verify transactions and balance do square up and add up. Those two points add significant productivity improvements it may take the next 20 years to harness and benefit from. The bottom line is I invest in trust technology. I only ever heard one of the Winklevoss use that term. It seems few are able to convey the value of this innovation. Every time I explain this is trust technology, people get it and are interested to the point it surprises me. I invest and support in trust technology. Why would I refrain from letting everyone know it exists?
  6. Great. Did you turn into the local crypto guy?? What do you think made them believe it was a good idea to invest?
  7. Did you convey anything about you having no idea when a good entry point be? I have a friend I told about cryptos a year or so ago who suddenly decided last march to invest 5000 fiat. I told her about the possibility to buy in the top 10 coins. She decided that she only wanted the three top coins. So here you have it, someone owns some XRP and has only a faint idea of what it is. I did advise, yes, now I mean advise in an active manner, for that kind of money buying a hardware wallet would be the best way to secure her future investment.
  8. I had no idea the word inspire could describe an active action. Inspiring is for me a 100% passive phenomena. I am surprised at how curious people get when I explain what cryptos are meant to accomplish. I feel I owe my fellow human beings to disclose the shift and impact cryptocurrencies are engineered to exert upon society. For the same reason, when I short XRPBTC, I feel indebted to the community to disclose I am taking wealth out of the common stach. I view XRP going up 10x a 50/50 proposition. I am therefore increasing my equity, taking it out of the common wealth of society at large. Once a century those with little means stand a fighting chance for equity appreciation. I feel endebted to mention that opportunity, as long as the listener wishes to hear.
  9. I like to convey the potential future I see in cryptocurrencies. If someone asks me how to buy cryptocurrencies, I explain the risk.
  10. My girlfriend decided to invest into BTC it was 800 ... She recouped her original investment when it went up. The rest is litteraly free money.
  11. Did she mention any point that convinced her to go ahead and invest?
  12. I'd like to hear stories about you telling some people about XRP leading them to invest. I'm curious about details, such as how much they invested, how did it turn out and which was the deciding factor. Thanks!
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