Question re: future of XRP and it's value as an investment vehicle. When I look at what Limited understanding I have about XRP and Ripple, I am puzzled by the notion that holding large volume of XRP would ever be as valuable as say, the equivalent value of BTC.
These are my assumptions:
Assume banks are becoming ripple customers in order to use Ripple for Bank-to-Bank transfers;(this is the stated business model and seems to be confirmed by the number of conventional banks involved with the currency.)
With that stated purpose, a bank would be able to move large amounts of USD easily with fewer XRP say if XRP were ever to reach BTC values. (So at $5k per XRP the bank only has to transfer 200 XRP to move $1 Million USD, and that seems to be efficient and easier.)
But once moved, if the bank's customer wants to withdraw $1M USD, then the bank has to convert the XRP to have the cash on hand, which means Ripple allows immediate Bank-to-Bank transfers but creates great risk for bank balance sheets.
Assume for a moment that this issue cannot be solved - and that the sole reason for using Ripple is to make Bank-to-Bank transfers faster and more secure, but "efficiency and ease" aren't the goal. In that circumstance it is more practical for banks to keep the value of XRP as close to the USD as possible, if not under $1 USD to factor in the bank's fees for the transfer. So to keep the numbers round, transferring $1 USD = 0.99 XRP. Then, balance sheets are a lot cleaner with less risk of the bank being shorthanded because XRPis = or <USD.
Now Assume that Ripple Labs' holding 60% of the coins is being done in order to be able to control the value of XRP (i.e. flood the market when price gets too high.) And the 60% they're holding is described to customer banks as their insurance policy to guard against inflation of the XRP value.
Assume that XRP as a consumer payment method (for example accepted currency by Alibaba and transacted with AliPay) would also argue for the value to be held to a very (relative to BTC) low value because consumer transactions require a value easily obtainable.
Now my question: if the above assumptions are true, and it makes sense for XRP to stay closer to the value of USD, is there reason to believe the value of XRP will ever exceed $1 USD?
Just wondering where my understanding lapses ... so I can understand the XRP investment logic. I'm holding a reasonable number of coins and deciding whether to continue to increase investments.