Ripple-Stiltskin

Caught a flu?

I’m afraid we haven’t hit rock bottom even close, for both the disease as the financial markets, including crypto. Why I haven’t sold everything yet really wonders me, maybe an irrational hope, against all odds, I don’t know.

Someone who puts a different name on a disease than the official name ( or even the most used informal name) is someone with an agenda.

Bro???? I didn’t say China is recovering ( but yes, maybe they are), I only stated that other countries should learn from the experiences in China and Italy. Why twisting my words and change it into a whole other topic??

3 scenario’s versus IC capacity: do nothing, social distancing, lockdown

I’m a little more pessimistic than Goldman however. Still many countries are underestimating the impact of exponential growth of a ( new, unknown) infection. Taking actions on actual info instead on extrapolated projections ( and experiences in China and Italy).

FYI: or skip if it is TLDR greetz RS Goldman Sachs hosted an Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

In the Netherlands any ownership/ votingrights in a company that exceeds 3% has to be declared to regulating authorities and must be made public. There’s a good reason for this rule imo.

Generally speaking: having excellent qualifications may be a good start, but are in no way a garantee that one is always right. Incompetence exists at all levels and isn’t just reserved for people with poor qualifications. Even Einstein wasn’t always right ( quantum mechanics just wasn’t his thing, lol). Better look at factual arguments and not take opinions for granted because of qualifications.

Maybe or maybe not, there’s no way of knowing until the “ endgame” . At which pricelevel a balance between demand and supply will be established is the question.

Producing goods on stock before there’s nearly enough demand ( and with the uncertainty that there ever will be) isn’t a very “ Lean” way to do business. Push instead of Pull. Maybe there was no better way, but this comes with high risks and has led many enterprises to bankruptcy.

I was merely responding to the suggestion that the cause of XRP’s rise last week is utility kicking in. It isn’t imo, whole market is up, low caps, big caps, every cap. So for now it’s the good ol’ manipulation and speculation kicking in.

I’ll play the party pooper for once: here’s a view on how utility effects the price for many coins last week:

You should have stopped there. The rest doesn’t make much sense.

That’s exactly what I thought of Apple Music. It’s not a product, it’s a pool of music. Yet they charge me € 10 a month for dipping in the pool now and then. They sell on demand music.