invest2lose reacted to enrique11 in Ripple Paid $15.1 Mln in “Market Development Fees” to MoneyGram in Q2 2020
Yes, he doesn't make that many positive posts. I can't recall one of the top of my head, but his English is much better than my Chinese. lol, he once got really pissed off at one of my negative posts about XRP, so that qualifies as a positive post by him. He made a very angry reply exclaiming that I was spreading 'FOMO' about XRP when he actually meant to say 'FUD'. It was a really unintentionally funny comment. But, then again, we all make "faux pas" from time to time.
invest2lose reacted to aavkk in Why does the value of Ripple (XRP) have to change? Why is it worth more than a common postage stamp?
My investment thesis in XRP hinges on increased liquidity will result in an ever increasing XRP price. As more and more utility is discovered in XRP and more market participants leverage this utility price will need to rise. The benefits of a rising XRP price and deeper liquidity are the ability for XRP to serve other larger use cases. It’s beautifully serving to improve back office treasury operations at remittance firms and corporates now but we are just getting started. With deeper liquidity it could be the grease in the FX markets serving to bring greater efficiencies to a trillion dollar market. This just can’t happen... yet.
Separately, I’m speculating that as XRP delivers real world utility to the largest institutional players in global finance it will serve as a greater and greater store of value, a superior one to Bitcoin. Only time will tell how all this will play out but increasing demand with static or decreasing supply typically is a good thing if you hold some of that supply. ODL volumes indicate we are on the right path.
invest2lose reacted to SquaryBone in ODL Bitso XRP/MXN Volume
I understand only a few corridors are active now. However there's only a fraction of those 22k corridors that do meaningful volume. This is not a simple calculation sadly, we can't just extrapolate. Nor in the existing corridors or with expanding to more corridors.
Do we have 40 mill$ XRP volume a day on ODL (I don't keep track of the number)?
Even if it hits that 100% of daily volume that would only support the current price (sub 20cents). Of course speculation is never 0%. For getting 2, 20, 200$ XRP that some are hoping for we'd need far bigger increase (and preferably in a small timeframe ).
I still give it 2 years to see substantial (10x-50x) increase in volume. I'm not in it for 1xx$ XRP. 2-10$ would already be nice returns. All above it is a bonus Just waiting (im)patiently for those new corridors to be fired up.
invest2lose reacted to Julian_Williams in SBI CEO Speaks About Ripple During Earnings Presentation Call
@LetHerRip - you seem to find everything I post to be funny: is that because you really find my comments funny, or because you look down on me from the clouds with superior knowledge and wisdom?
invest2lose reacted to Zerpiet in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart
I was a bit bored, so I decided to analyse the reactions in the first 404(!) pages of this thread.
In those 404 pages, 3938 comments received a reaction, and in total there were 11515 reactions given.
There are currently three comments tied in the race, each having 21 reactions:
https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/30042-epic-pennant-on-btc-chart/page/48/?tab=comments#comment-702518 https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/30042-epic-pennant-on-btc-chart/page/65/?tab=comments#comment-715518 https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/30042-epic-pennant-on-btc-chart/page/222/?tab=comments#comment-759787
Here's a plot of the people who gave over 50 reactions.
and here's a the people who received over 50 reactions:
Given a reaction, Cesar1810 was most likely to 'like', dr_ed most likely to say 'thanks', MQB was most likely to say 'haha', EcneitapLatnem was most likely to be 'sad', and Kiwi was most likely to be 'confused'. Seems about right ...
Below I showed people getting confused by each other. An arrow from X to Y means X reacted 'confused' on Y's comment. Seems like Eric123 confuses the heck out of Viggo, and a lot of people are confused by baobeiiiii:
invest2lose reacted to jbjnr in Q1 2020 ODL report
I wrote down much of what I've posted here before and tried to make a blog article out of it, but I'm not much good at html formatting and the graphs have come out terrible. I tried to put them into a coil article first, but that looked even worse and I gave up. (For curiosity, I wanted to see how well the web monetization stuff works using coil - no I don't need the $, but I'm curious to see if it works - and no - It doesn't for me at all anyway as I don't use twitter and the xrp community blog needs it).
Anyway, here are my findings.
I Opened up a new topic, so that Q&A could go here, but if this belongs in "press" or one of the other self promoting blog sections, mods please feel free to move it.
TL;DR = quite a lot of ODL traffic. Things looking good for the future.
invest2lose reacted to Flintstone in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart
There was a poll on Twitter recently(Best source for people in the ‘know’), BTC up or down 20%? - 20,000 people - 50/50 split.
I think it possible that this coming halvening may repeat the same effect, maybe to a lesser degree, but I don’t see a fourth, not unless there is a change that stops mining pools gravitating towards cheap electricity and becoming centralised. Eric does have a point though, BTC is a good hedge against the USD.
Regarding the downside, I’m not sure. XRP usually falls further than BTC, but how far will BTC go up or down? What will the price need to be for mining to cover costs? Will Miguel fire up his programmatic sales again?
This market is bloody crazy. I should really stop with opinions because I really haven’t got a clue!
invest2lose reacted to Dogowner5 in Charting the course of XRP
I find it surprising that people think they know the absolute top price of a utility coin that has never yet achieved even a fraction of its potential. It’s completely uncharted territory for any crypto, but some folk seem to be absolutely sure they know it’s limits.
I’ve got no idea why they think they can be sure of the limit when it’s like has never been seen in the world before. And may not for some years more. It may take some years yet before we find out what a utility coin carrying some significant percentage of world commerce is going to be worth.
I think anyone that is already sure of its limits has no basis for that belief.
invest2lose reacted to Eric123 in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart
Day 9 of the Apocalypse
Stimulus and Bail Outs to the rescue.
For the last 10 years or so the market wasn't moved by economic policy or the economy for that matter, it was moved by monetary policy. Interest rates up stocks down, Interest rates down stocks up. Now we have reached the point where it is not just the businesses that are getting bailed out, it's the people directly. If you were writing a scenario in which bitcoin would flourish you could not have written a better one.
As far as Bitcoin's price today, we went up yesterday and are again up 5% give or take at about $6.5k at the moment. If we dip below $6k I'll buy some more.
I don't subscribe to hyperwave theory, elliot wave theory or any other wave theory. That being said, I do think Bitcoin is following a repeating pattern (growth/adoption curve) which is unique to Bitcoin, but I don't think there is one wave theory that is applicable in all situations.
But maybe they have something there. Maybe human behavior can be determined by mathematics, maybe physics can be used to calculate the movement of our charged particles and determine our actions. Maybe reality is just a simulation reusing the same loops over and over and over and over again. Maybe, but I don't think so.
This is a quote from from Tyler Jenks in this article linked below dated May 6, 1990. When the Dow was below 3k.
"In short, says Jenks, this is no time to buy stocks or even to hold them."
Look at the Dow chart from 1990 and ask yourself how Jenks' advice played out.
invest2lose reacted to xrphilosophy in Google Trend is Up
It has always seemed to me that a global financial crisis is not a catalyst, but a pre-condition for money to wildly pour into crypto. If that is the case then liquidity would flow back into risk assets, many different markets, once economies have really taken a hit. Liquidity leaves the markets, then liquidity dries up in the real economy, then once economies have bottomed, liquidity re-enters the markets. It happened after 1987, 1999, and it happened after 2008. It happens in every market cycle throughout history. It just takes time.
The US economy is about to take a hit over the coming months, but in many cases real economies have not yet taken a toll. The process has to play out if indeed the crypto market will follow the other markets in the rebound. A waiting game until we have the answer...
invest2lose reacted to LittleLordFauntleroy in Charting the course of XRP
FYI, he bailed on the forum because he was tired of fighting trolls. He still very much believes in XRP.
Not gonna lie, the general forum is almost completely useless and toxic for your average user. I almost exclusively visit the Zerpening now, and the quality there is also dropping...
Everyone stay healthy, stay grounded and stick around. The good times are still ahead.
invest2lose reacted to jbjnr in ODL Nations
In general I'd say the answer is 'some'. The ODL tracker on https://utility-scan.com/#/dashboard looks at payments on the xrp ledger and compares them to trades on exchanges using the same amount. I think I read on this forum quite recently that they don't include it until they see 15 transaction that match the pattern. When those transactions are more than 24 hours old, they become part of the history, but don't affect new tests or numbers. However, there may be individuals who are doing ODL like activity - or random buy/sell pairs that appear to be matching that will appear as ODL activity on utilityscan.com - my own suspicion is that the numbers seen the other day including JPY, KRW etc were probably not ODL activity, but probably random trades that just happened to match the pattern.
My own ODL tracker uses a different approach. I scan payments on ledger and do a very basic statistical check to see if the 'corridor' looks like ODL payments. By this, I mean are there regular payments from one account to another, using the same destination tag - are both accounts known as exchange accounts. Do the payments have sensible transaction sizes, do they fit a certain weekday/weekend pattern. When I find a corridor that 'looks' ODL-like, I then apply a filter to remove spurious corridors. for example, I see a great many ODL-like corridors that are probably arbitrage-bots between exchanges, casinos and other wallets that are 'unknown' - these I remove and what's left are then filtered down to 'candidates' and from there I keep only the ones that ripple have announced as trading partners, (bitso, bitstamp, coins.ph etc). When I plot the amounts on those corridors, I get numbers that match the ones shown on utility-scan.com - except for the JPY/KRW stuff - because I do not consider a corridor open until the trading pattern has stayed active for at least two weeks (I can increase or decrease that window).
If a corridor is active during a period of time, and then goes inactive. I drop it from my list. This means that if I plot historical charts going back in time, traffic on these 'corridors' does not appear. In general, the amounts on these corridors is quite small by today's standards.
If you look for example at this plot of weekly totals
you will see activity USD/PHP and USD/MXN at low levels during the early part of last year - this was almost certainly testing of systems before they went properly 'live' later in the year. However, we have no proof of that and it might have just been normal traffic. My analysis relies on the assumption that if you were ripple/moneygram/other, it is unikely that you would mix ODL traffic with other money flows - when creating a new wallet is so easy and having different account tags on the exchange can be arranged. From an accounting point of view, it makes things much more straightforward to use certain wallets for certain operations and then summing/plotting/accounting becomes simpler.
I should upgrade my scripts to keep 'old' corridors so that if ones come online, but then go dark again, then the summed traffic on those corridors is included. However, I am mostly interested in the main corridors and if old ones did exist and go dark, I would only care if they were big ones with a lot of traffic like the ones we see in the plot above.
When I started tracking this back in 2018, I was having a hard time identifying 'corridors' because volumes were small, but now the signal stands out very clearly. And I ran my number (as mentioned in another thread the other day) against the numbers in the ripple q4 report and they %changes between quarters and other details (I forget what now) do match very closely what I see, so I am confident that my plots are basically correct. If I include or miss a handful of transactions, I'm not bothered - I'm interested in the overall trend and the main total.
(I also see accounts that appear to be involved in rebalancing these corridors, but I am not including them in these plots).
EDIT: One thing I forgot to mention is that the very early USD/PHP traffic last year was comparably speaking larger than the actual traffic taking place now. so it was probably setting up accounts as lots of large transfers that were 'too big' took place, however when real traffic started flowing, I kept the 'corridor' in my list. So, yes - there is almost certainly some spurious data.