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EasterBunny

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Everything posted by EasterBunny

  1. It seems that Netburn wants to rule on all issues of deliberative process at the same time, instead of making individual rulings. She would probably prefer if both sides agree and make good on her previous rulings. I would expect an agreement or ruling and most documents to be released by the end of the month. I don't think the SEC can stall any further.
  2. Judge Netburn said quite clearly that she was not in favor of seeing Hinman deposed twice. Both sides fully understand the legal tactics involved, and all expect that Hinman will not speak to anything under the strictest definition of deliberative process. Ripple would likely appeal to the judge that his communications to 3rd parties after the 2018 speech are NOT part of the deliberative process. Netburn would likely agree and then Hinman would be deposed a second time and forced to answer. Judge Netburn has set precedent enough already by allowing the deposition to proceed. I'm not sure how often a 'high ranking official' from the SEC has been deposed(if ever), but I'm sure she does not want to the be the first judge to allow a 2nd deposition. The only way I see that happening is if Hinman refuses to answer questions directly related to his post speech communications with 3rd parties. He may very well may refuse to answer most other questions, and I doubt that will be enough to allow a 2nd deposition. I think the SEC lawyers are walking a very fine line in which questions they advise Hinman to answer. If they put up a stone wall, this will not look good on them and I expect the Judge to take action.
  3. So the proposal is to add about 6 lines to 4 existing securities laws?
  4. Where are you seeing that volume? I see 43k USDT on Polo and 144K on Bitrue, Which is only a fraction of the volume for a top 20 coin on either exchange. There must be a lot of pessimism about the future price of FLR then. I suspect that the price on Bitrue and on Polo will converge in a matter of weeks after launch. I would be very surprised if that price difference continues to hold. I do hope it ends up in the $.5-1 range.
  5. Agreed. They could be differentiating between tokens that have vested, and ones that haven't for this to work. (I have no idea what Polo is going to do, I don't use them) If you take a weighted average of the vested FLR token 15% and the IOU 85% it should equal the price as listed on Polo. Assume the vested token is worth the same as FLR trading on Bitrue. Solve for the IOU price on Polo. IOU*0.85+1.4(FLR price on Bitrue)*0.15 = 0.35 (price on Polo). This gives an IOU token value of 0.18 on Polo. This sounds like a convenient way to explain the difference, but I think in reality there has not been any good price discovery for FLR. You can't trade between exchanges and it's a VERY illiquid market. I would not be surprised to see 0.2, 2 or both within the first month.
  6. After the FLR launch, neither Bitrue or Polo will receive more than 15%. Neither exchange is allowing withdrawals because the tokens simply don't exist. FLR is 100% and IOU right now. If Polo is going to give out 100% of the tokens at launch, then it'll be 15% real and 85% IOU. I would expect that they will have to have strict withdrawal limits. The prices will equalize when people are able to withdraw and take advantage of arbitrage opportunities. I would guess the initial price will be closer to the .35 than 1.4, but we shall see.
  7. It looks like Computing for Good and SETI@home are defunct. Are there any other projects that can use distributed computing in a meaningful way?
  8. I did some research and I'm pretty sure he's talking about a different crypto... At least according to this reliable source I found: https://www.deccanherald.com/international/world-trending/did-elon-musk-hint-spacex-may-fly-to-the-moon-to-find-water-or-is-it-again-about-cryptocurrency-994045.html
  9. @RobertHarpool I haven't heard that Nexo de-listed, or was planning on delisting XRP. Was there a link in your image that you can share? Was it a link to a lawsuit against nexo?
  10. There are definitely 2 sides to market making. If the market is flat, with a wide spread, high volume, and low fees, a market maker can be very profitable. Earning 0.5-1% per transaction is nice if you can make several trades per day. Trading on the XRPL dex back in the day with USD, JPY, CNY, EUR in 2018 was very entertaining. The IOU's didn't make it risk free, and I occasionally found myself on the wrong side of a trade. There always risk if the price moves strongly in either direction. If you set bids at +/- 0.5% of mid market, and XRP goes up 10% you would have sold your XRP at +0.5% and in order to continue MM-ing, you would have to buy back in at +10%. Same thing happens if the price drops significantly.
  11. Only person I know of who became a billionaire because of his incompetence. Also laughing a bit as his stellar network has been down for 5 hours and counting...
  12. Thanks your for that rational insight! From their perspective, selling XRP vs selling ripple shares still ends with money in the bank. They may have chosen to sell XRP because they don’t want to give up shareholder power, or they could have sold ripple shares to traditional VC to raise funds for expansion. No idea what their rationale was for choosing what to sell. They knew that XRP we’re not shares of the company when they sold (therefore not a security), but they sold them as if they were. They built the business and should take what they have earned. Can’t blame them for doing what anyone else would have done, and kudos for them for being transparent about it. I don’t think the lawsuit will settle the issue though, not expecting clarity anytime soon.
  13. deaths/infected is about 2%. If you assume that most are in self quarantine and not reported then it’s less than 1%. We don’t know the true numbers yet. We’re in the middle of an information war as far as I can tell. If telling the truth would cause widespread panic, then maybe it’s better to downplay the severity and keep economies rolling. The reporting rate of new infections has gone down in the past several days, so maybe it can be contained after all.
  14. Compiling some links to papers on 2019-nCoV. As usual, DYOR. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/2019-nCoV-outbreak-report-17-01-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/2019-nCoV-outbreak-report-22-01-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
  15. @JASCoder have a look at these accounts. https://bithomp.com/explorer/rNgHXPviCpf5G11EUFCMs4YR33s3puBv8Y https://bithomp.com/explorer/rModuA9GBakB1hUKZxXYF3sQP7a9qbpooR I was looking at bitso trade data and can see that there has been a significant net purchase of XRP since MoneyGram started operations.(I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but 100’s of million XRP/month) It looks like the 2 wallets above, take the accumulated XRP from the ODL exchanges and then send it back to Bitstamp to complete the loop. I’m guessing the market maker is using the traditional banking rails to fund their MXN at Bitso, they accumulate XRP and send back to Bitstamp to cash out.
  16. I’m not an expert but in their 2015 settlement with FinCEN the word ‘currency’ was found 28 times. 0 hits for ‘commodity’ or ‘security’.
  17. The "negligible amounts compared to our other funding." comment by David was probably NOT referring to VC funding. How much have they made from software sales and partnerships with the 300+ institutions they have signed on? If they've earned 12B or more through partnerships and contracts, then yes, I would say their XRP sales are negligible. Ripple does not disclose how much they have made though these partnerships(nor should they). These number aren't public because Ripple and their customers do not want them to be. 300+ employees, offices in expensive cities, generous donations and funding for side projects don't come cheap! They must have a strong income on top of XRP sales to have been able to accomplish this. I think they will continue to grow even as they slow down XRP sales.
  18. Is it a clever work-around to allow circular trades? I see partial payments, 'no direct ripple' and 'limit quality' flags. I'm guessing that the flags force the path to go around the direct option, and is only successful if the exchange rate is favorable. Using a ULT/UPH token to facilitate a trade through CNY, to net a small amount of XRP? Am I close?
  19. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2019-207 “By statute, the Volcker rule generally prohibits banking entities from engaging in proprietary trading or investing in or sponsoring hedge funds or private equity funds. Under the revised rule, firms that do not have significant trading activities will have simplified and streamlined compliance requirements, while firms with significant trading activity will have more stringent compliance requirements.”
  20. I would normalize everything now to USD, as it’s currently the most stable and widely recognized currency. You could localize all the data to the user specified currency, but that’s a lot of work...
  21. That sounds good... but maybe expressed as a percentage? So ODL FX Rate of 102%, would mean that ODL FX rate is 2% more expensive than the global averaged FX mid-market rate? A number less than 100% would indicate you're beating the exchange rate. You would have to indicate the direction as well. USD-->MXN might be 102%, and MXN--> USD might be 98%. Of course, this would only be the cost that the Ripple net customer pays to use ODL. They could charge their customer whatever rate they publish to them and keep the difference. Let's say MG charges their customer 6% for an average remittance of $500, and MG pays 2% of that in the ODL transaction. They keep the remaining 4%. The goal is that MG eventually pushes the savings on to the customer and are able to drive demand up by offering a lower cost service.
  22. "Disposition of Acquired Organization: Subsidiary" to me, means that Ripple owns them. They can take all profits they generate, and Ripple pays all(or none) of their salary. Ripple has complete authority to make the company go away, or to help further XRP adoption/integration. I think this is a win.
  23. Call it ODL FX rate(relative to real FX rate, from XE.com). Use negative numbers to indicate a less than favorable rate. Run the script daily(or several times a day and average the results). Then plot the results over time and we can track how the rates change over time. You can make some assumptions about volume, and update additional known fees as they change. I would add in a default fee of 0.13%, which is what Bitso charges for market orders, and a 0.07% fee for the Bitstamp end. https://www.bitstamp.net/fee-schedule/ https://bitso.com/fees?l=en I think the above would be a much better measure of liquidity than the tenitoshi index because it’s a direct measure of the cost to move various amounts of money. Keep up the good work!
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