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teddybear

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  1. Aight. Lemme get to your NONSENSE. First of all you don't know how to argument. Your statements are silly and immature. Let me tear your comical inputs apart: Point A: I said: "you will not be able to offload the total number of available assets at this price (yet we used total number to get there)" You say: "You will offload more with a company that has a stronger market cap. " ARE YOU NUTS??? It's as if I was saying: "The earth is round" and you answer "Yeah but the sky is blue". STOP CHANGING THE TOPIC AND STATING OTHER OBVIOUS STUFF INSTEAD! Obviously you can offload more USD value if the market cap is larger. What nobody guarantees you, is the VOLUME or number of units you can offload because YOU DON'T KNOW WHO WILL FILL YOU IN A MARKET WITHOUT A MARKET MAKER, WHICH IS THE CASE FOR THE CRYPTOPCURRENCY MAREKT!!!! DO YOU ACTUALLY KNOW WHAT A MARKET MAKER DOMINATED MARKET VS. A ECN MODELL IS??? I doubt it. To explain again point A): Just because the last traded price of an asset was X, does not mean you can offload your holdings at this price. That was all I said. It implies that if you want to transact, you need a counterparty and this counterparty has to match YOUR PRICE AND YOUR VOLUME. YET YOU ASSUME ALL VOLUME BEING AVAILABLE AT THE SAME PRICE BECAUSE THAT'S HOW YOU GOT TO YOUR "MARKET CAP NUMBER" IN THE FIRST PLACE. Point b ) I said "you have no guarantee that the next transaction will happen at this price" --> This is very much in line with point a) basically repeating that since the orderbook (the aggregated view over all exchanges, which at this point through arbitrage activities can be assumed to be well connected) IS NOT VISIBLE TO YOU AS AN INVESTOR hence you do not know the depth (aka the volume) behind a price. Let's look at your reply: "You have a better chance the next transaction will even occur without the fund going bankrupt. " WHAT FUND? WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? WHAT BANKRUPTCY? Mate, are you talking about investment funds now? Bring it on. You'll burn your fingers hardcore arguing with me about any kind of investment fund. Point c) I say: "it has no predictive value (OK, nothing has in the financial world)" Admittedly this is a bit of a rant I did, and not a great contribution content wise, but, still, it holds true that you cannot deduct anything from market cap. Your reply: "It is a partial predictive indicator. In Example, If the market cap doubles every 6 months for 5 years straight Its quite likely the next 6 months will double too. Its a measurement of value and measuring value is a measurement of momentum when other factors are evaluated. When you drive a car at 80 MPH on a highway its safe to assume in several seconds you will continue to do 80 MPH, but if you get into a car accident , have a tire blowout, or a mechanical failure then its safe to say that momentum will change. Same with an investment.. " Let's take a look: "If the market cap doubles every 6 months for 5 years straight Its quite likely the next 6 months will double too." --> I'd run away from anything that has doubled so fast so many times. But that's just me. Let's leave it at that. And since you said "quite likely" there's nothing wrong with that, although you probably have no statistical evidence for that, but go with your gut feeling which makes any sell-side financial service provider very happy. "Its a measurement of value and measuring value is a measurement of momentum when other factors are evaluated" --> HUH??? WHAT? Since when is value measure by momentum? Momentum just says that... uhm.... it's going somewhere at a certain speed. Where the heck do you see value in that? Maybe you mean that momentum can help you gauge potential ongoing price movement for the undetermined future, but that's about it. "When you drive a car at 80 MPH on a highway its safe to assume in several seconds you will continue to do 80 MPH, but if you get into a car accident , have a tire blowout, or a mechanical failure then its safe to say that momentum will change. Same with an investment.. " --> I didn't get that, but maybe me and you are not consuming the same mind altering substances. Or your IQ is in an entirely different league than mine. Then again, I'm not a native English speaker. Might be that, too. Point d) I say: "it's not of comparison value because it does not reflect AT ALL the volume structure behind the/ inside the orderbook" Again, what I'm trying to get across here, is that the market cap figure represents a snapshot at a certain point in time, hence is of static nature. It makes the deadly assumption that all shares are available at the last traded price WHICH IS AS IDIOTIC AS IT CAN GET. You say: "To say market cap is not value or has no value means that you have no comprehension of what value is. " YOU ARE AGAIN HIJACKING MY ARGUMENTS BY INSERTING YOUR OWN CONTENT WHICH DOES NOT AT ALL REFER TO MY STATEMENTS! Where did I speak of value as such, man? I said "COMPARISON VALUE" i.e. it does not serve as a good tool to compare assets because it does not reflect the underlying order book structure. Yet you come up with a totally undefined and intangible concept of value and say that I don't get it. To attack my argument like that you have to define what you mean by "value" first. "Value" like in "Value Investing"'? Like in terms of "future impact"? Like what? Now the best part for the end: You say: "Please print out this entire conversation, show it to a professional trader , and ask for their opinion. Think of it like this, if your right then awesome, if your wrong at least you could learn something that might save you a ton of money someday, I am just looking out for you and everyone else here who is reading this. " --> Mate, I don't need a professional trader for this, neither do I need you to concern-troll my finances. Let me tell you how we do this in our Asset Management firm. We go by Average Daily Trading Volume. We consider a certain percentage of that (which I obviously won't share) and then we take that as a proxy to not go beyond so that we do not move the market on any given day. BUT: IT'S ALL ABOUT LIQUIDITY AND GETTING FILLED You might have seen the movie "The Big Short". The best scene in my view is not the chicks explaining derivatives (OK... OK... I liked that, I must admit) but when at the end this one manager understood that he had to sell his options for, what was it..1 billion....? Because otherwise his counterparty, aka the investment bank would've gone broke. See... in some way this is also liquidity. If there's no-one on the other side of your trade, what do you think will happen? Well, you move up/down the ladder till you get filled, either fully or partially. Take a look at what happens during a liquidity gap in a oh-so-liquid market, the FX market: https://www.google.ch/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiqj57x8rbWAhWJfhoKHTSNAScQFgg1MAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecb.europa.eu%2Fpaym%2Fgroups%2Fpdf%2Ffxcg%2F2015%2F1604%2F2015-04-16_EBS_EURCHF_Activity_Jan_15.pdf%3F88c17d438767d9fa1c4a45af2128579b&usg=AFQjCNGrFSSNd6tWXk5_RYAh8akDhMCD8w Anyway.... Key-take aways: - Learn how to argument without embarrassing yourself - Read up upon market structure - Hodl on
  2. I wish I could carry where I live.
  3. I hold the same view. I don't believe there's gonna be a big-bang moment 08/09 style. Rather a slow unstoppable decay, painful and slow. It is, and that's important, yet another trend. Cryptos and blockchain are the future. Micropayments will play a supportive role. But that big conspiracy "uhuuu da dollaa is goin ta hell maaann".... it's just too romantic. Way too romantic.
  4. I'll have a very drastic suggestion for you. Go see a psychiatrist if you think you'll behave in a self destructive manner and sell before you should. It helped me.
  5. So, as much as I have a critical view on the money printing of the US: But, if they go down, somebody else has to take their place. Russia, India or China. Other economies are not big enough. All these three are way more corrupt than the US. You see, it's the setup. Bulgaria has lower corporate taxes than Switzerland, actually a flat tax of 10%. Still, ain't nobody doing business there, with all these corrupt mofos down there. The USD will stay, Bitcoin will stay. What's more questionable is what's going to happen to bonds and equity. That's the stuff you oughta be concerned about cuz all are pensions are holding this nonsense. The USD is like Switzerland from a tax heaven perspective. It has seen a loss in terms of offshore banking (they have lost a market share to Asian offshore centres). But... it's not gonna go down totally. The boom is over, but it's not the end either ya know....
  6. The largest BTC account is 119k coins. First entry this year. Place 3 (?) is 84k, first entry 2011 - this guy held 6 years - 100k usd turned into 327 mio. A hero. What I'm saying is that, there were surely BTC holders who had more than 119k coins at some point. They didn't hold. And so many of us won't.
  7. The bonus? Oh yes I want it. But I'll buy a nice watch with it.
  8. Step by step. Let's see what effect SBI has on the price. The 1-2$ projections will look very conservative if SBI opening does to price what the Korean exchanges did to it...
  9. wait wait... till I get to the rest of his/her points... LOL confusing market cap with liquidity... made me laugh
  10. And tell you before, so you front run me a bit Just kidding... No, unless I hit the bonus big time in February next year, that was it for the big buys for now
  11. I'll get to your points tonight. This is an interesting argument.
  12. Whatever the number. If there's a counterparty and he gets filled, it ain't gonna move. I moved the market with a 5 figure fiat amount, so... it's all about liquidity. It's either here or somewhere else.
  13. When I hear warrants I run away fast. Nothing worse then owning just a claim. Oh wait....owning a claim against an Investment Bank is the worst. Been there, done that. I came, I saw and I lost. No thanks. Sticking to equity and precious metals or to tokens.
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