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PapaLou

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Everything posted by PapaLou

  1. pretty awesome answers above. I want to take a lot of time to digest all of that. One similar point Metcalfe's law that everyone's been discussing with other coins. I used to send letters via snail mail maybe twice a year. Now I send a few emails a day. That's probably a 100x increase in my usage of the mail system. I used to interact with people via phone once a day. Now I make calls multiple times a day and send dozens of texts per day. With faster and cheaper utility/functionality of "value movement" I will personally most likely be sending multiple times over the number of payments I currently send out. I'm likely to receive them too of course, multiple times over. This increases all of the figures above by a factor of 25-100x. That puts the price by my earlier (basic and flawed) math at $25-100 in the future. Other uses outside payments (NFTs, Defi, etc) can pump it a factor or so beyond that. Speculation will anticipate the correct market price a year or so early. I guess I CAN see a future where something like XRP can be worth $200 or more, despite other options like XLM. And speculation should drive to that number years ahead of time. Nice!
  2. I'd like to start some dialogue to math out the possible prices for XRP. Looking into the 5 Trillion moved daily via Swift, I believe this is done using Nostro Vostro accounts which range somewhere between 15 trillion and 25 trillion very roughly speaking. Some people use this and divide total number of XRP in existence (or the non-escrowed amount) to arrive at a price. But that would assume one xrp per fiat (e.g. the USD) used. In fact, fiat moves so slowly and XRP moves so fast that one single XRP (3-5s settlement transaction time) can be used many, many times per minute, many more per hour, etc. If you use a 5s settlement that's one single XRP being used 12 times per minute x 60 minutes/hr x 24 hrs/day = 17,280 usages of XRP/day. If XRP is valued at $1, that means one XRP can move $17,280 dollars per day. The only reason they may need such high nostro vostro account money is b/c of how slow the fiat moves. With fast movement they may only need a more exact amount that they move per day...so much less, closer to the 5 trillion they move daily. Well if at a price of $1, it's used simply to move 5 trillion that's 5T/17,280 = 289 million XRP needed do to that. That's all the banks need to own to replace the Nostro Vostro accounts. If that's all wrong and they need 15-25 trillion, then 25 trillion/17,280 = 1,446 million XRP, or 1.5 billion. That's what they'd need to hold. Even if you double THAT number, it's only 3 billion they'd have to buy from Ripple's treasury to do it. That doesn't really move price that much. This is all calculating off a $1 XRP. I know there's details such as the 20 xrp needed per wallet that's locked up, etc, etc. But these don't move the needle that much to get price to be needed to be THAT much higher than $1.00 for actual utility...like what the price "needs to be" to work as intended. Can someone explain what I'm missing because I'm really hoping I'm wrong. Also I know that adding NFTs will lock up more XRP etc etc but man these are small potatoes we're talking relative to the trillions in nostro/vostro. How does utility = a price over 5 or 10 dollars. I know hype can get it there, but what about actual utility? Thanks.
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