Eric123

@Milly238 I have a bullish bias because I think Crypto is the future, but short term direction is always tricky. XRP is bouncing against the top of a downward trendline that began on June 26, when everything peaked and then retreated. I think we break through the top of the line here and get a move up in the whole market which I think happens soon - (matter of days). XRP's chart being right at the line is making me more confident that this will occur.

Checking out the chart on XRP which I normally don't look at. Looks like we might be getting ready for something here.

While I was writing the above - This Happened. So we're now up 3%. I heard Crypto turns on a dime, whatever that is, I think it's like .00001 of a bitcoin.

Day 3 of my missed prediction. We have 3 red days in a row on bitcoin today is slightly green about 1% up. Slight turn up in XRP about .7 % so Moral is up, it's not a big move up, but anything other than a kick in the teeth for alts is met with elation at this point. I have every confidence things will turn soon, big move on big volume that makes everyone forget the last week. In regards to ALTs. Like I wrote before I don't think ALT season will kick off until Bitcoin has regained it's ATH and gone Parabolic. My whole Idea of ALT season is that people see Bitcoin's price go parabolic and those that missed out on it look for "The Next Bitcoin" . If Bitcoin Sh*ts the bed and drops to $9k and tons of people lose money, no one will be looking for the next way to lose money. For most of the public Bitcoin is Crypto. If Bitcoin is a bad investment so is Crypto. I do think we are due for some price appreciation which will happen but I think it will basically in sympathy to bitcoin's move. Just at a glance it seems that ALTs have been moving about double to bitcoin. Move up of 5% on bitcoin = move up of 10% of Alts, just a basic rule of thumb I go by. As to specific ALTs, it seems that Most, ETH, LTC, NEO, the whole community really with the exception of XRP are having development issues which seem to be related to the lack of Blockchain Programmers. Obviously the lack of a talent pool is a this a growing pain of all industries at their initial stage of development and it shows how early in the game we really are. XRP obviously through the efforts of Ripple does not seem to have this problem or at least XRP has enough products developed for it's platform to be functioning as intended (although I'm sure they are probably experiencing the same issues with regard to additional development with regard to the other less mentioned uses for their platform (smart-contracts, etc). So XRP is uniquely positioned at the front of the ALT as far as I'm concerned and should be able to really take advantage of buying momentum when the market turns.

@automatic Here's the thing with Alt season. I don't see it happening prior to bitcoin going parabolic. Basically this is the way I see alt season playing out. Bitcoin breaks ATH then begins to ramp up with gains, then bitcoin goes parabolic again and tops out at my predicted number of somewhere around $400k at the end of 2020 or in 2021 (i have McAfee having to eat his d*ck but hey maybe we get to $1m ( I certainly hope we do)).Once bitcoin is at this price - everyone that missed out starts to look for "the next bitcoin" and they jump into ALTs, which will have ridden up the wave probably at least 10x from where they are now but still nowhere near where bitcoin is. I don't think ALT season will take place at the expense of bitcoin. I think it will be new money that had missed out on bitcoin. This will propel ALTs to and we should see some crazy high gainers. Now that being said I don't think XRP needs to wait for alt season to move up. XRP is basically unique in the crypto space (many argue it's not a crypto currency at all and as we know most crypto purists hate it) and moves for it's own reasons. I can easily see XRP at $5-10 at the same time bitcoin is near it's previous ATH of $20k. But maybe we get a mini ALT season before then, maybe ALTs have a relief rally in the mean time or maybe I'm just wrong about what will happen. @LotusFace I had bittrex and bitfinex but since I'm from NY they kicked me out a while ago. I use coinbase I think my fees have been about $4 a purchase, something like that. @LittleLordFauntleroy I'll check out GDAX

(written like a captain's log) Day 2 of my missed prediction. Bitcoin is currently at $10,104, the price had been below $10k all night. XRP is .27. Moral is still good within the community although there have been some mentions of a possible $6k bitcoin price and stop losses for XRP being triggered. I have reasserted my faith that bitcoin will retake the trendline relatively shortly and the XRP is a good buy at these prices. I have drawn another short term trend line and I am waiting for a violent break out soon. I will be picking up so more XRP today. Sub $10k prices for bitcoin should be a thing of the past soon.

@AlejoMoreno The hashrate runs and protects the network. It indicates investment in bitcoin. The whole crypto space is growing and big things are happening. I know these violent price sings are heartbreaking but hey if you sell now I'll probably be on the other side of that trade. As a general rule I've found it's better to buy on red days and sell on green days and not the other way around. I can't guarantee XRP will go up but I'm betting with my own money that it will and I don't plan on selling until $10.

Wow Bitcoin bringing the pain with another 7%+ drop and XRP is down at around .26. I'm not worried. We are on Day 1 of my missed prediction. I doubt we drop much farther. IMO we are not going to $6k, we are not going to $7k or $8k I doubt we fall out of the $9k's. Again bitcoin does not move like a stock but like I said before we would have to break through a bunch of support to get to $6k. On a positive note the hashrate is hitting an ATH. https://toshitimes.com/bitcoin-hash-rate-reaches-new-all-time-high-will-price-follow-hashrate/

Earlier in this thread I computed November 29 to be the date that Bitcoin retakes it's ATH based upon the chart moving out of the descending wedge relative to the last cycle. Not that other factors don't have an effect but - elections, equities etc, did not factor into my analysis at all.

@Viggo I agree it would be catastrophic - but I don't think that's gonna happen. There is too many positive things happening. I think we are gonna be at $13k + soon and I doubt we ever see sub .22 on XRP again. @CryptoBoiler General Public Interest increases with price. Once Bitcoin retakes it's ATH which I put around the end of November interest should reawaken with the general public. Institutions are much more important than the General Public. Coinbase's CEO stated that he's seeing new institutional deposits into crypto of $200M to $400M per week. https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/08/coinbase-ceo-seeing-200-400m-a-week-in-new-crypto-deposits-from-institutions/ I doubt XRP enters 2020 sub .50.

@automatic damn sub $6k. I disagree, I think there is significant support below 10k and there are about 5 - 6 support levels we'd have to break through before we get to $6k. Of course anything is possible. If sub $6k does happen though I would expect it to drag XRP down to around .05.

Well back at the grind. (wouldn't be if XRP and BTC could get their act together and moon already). Anyway, we are below my trendline (E-Line) which I claimed we would retake by Mid-August. So we'll see how long that takes. I am still confident it will happen, soon. I think it's interesting that the Bitcoin price S*&t the Bed the day before the Bakkt futures launch date (9/23/19) was announced. I wrote on another thread that the Bakkt Futures being physically settled would have basically the opposite effect of the CME cash settled (total bs) futures. At the end of 2017 one could see that big players were buying up bitcoins on the exchanges and driving up the price, then going short on the futures market with leverage, then dumping the bitcoins on the exchanges crashing the price and cleaning up. Basically they were using the tail (the exchanges which set the price) to wag the dog (CME Futures). No such shenanigans can really happen with physically settled bitcoin trading because instead of the tail wagging the dog you basically have two dogs. I believe the Bakkt Futures will drive demand as it makes it easier for individuals/institutions to buy bitcoins which have to actually be held in Bakkt custody. I mean let's face it. There are not that many bitcoins out there. There are currently 17,830,475 bitcoins in existence. and a lot of those have been lost. Chainalysis, a research firm that analyzes activity across different cryptocurrency markets, estimates that between 2.78 and 3.79 million, or between 17 and 23 percent of all bitcoins have been lost. So lets say there are about 15,000,000 bitcoins available. That's not that many. Credit Suisse’s latest global wealth report shows there are 42.2 million millionaires (measured in USD) worldwide, up 2.3 million over the last 12 months. So basically we have 15m Bitcoin and 42.2 m Millionaires - evenly distributing the bitcoins among millionaires gives each millionaire .355 of a Bitcoin. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic - but I'm having a hard time picturing the millionaire who would not want to own an entire bitcoin or at the very least a portion of a bitcoin. And that's just the millionaires and that's without any institutional demand. As bitcoin becomes more accessible price should appreciate dramatically. By accessible I mean when someone can call their broker at Merrill Lynch (or any other brokerage) and says "buy me $1,000 of bitcoin" and Merrill Lynch buys it and stores it with the rest of the individual's portfolio. Obviously the approval of ETF's will be a big step in this direction and Bakkt physical futures are another step in that direction. - Well we won't have to wait long to see how this plays out. As far at the bitcoin chart goes - Eh it's not bad. The MACD should be turning positive soon, next 2 to 3 days and price should be moving up. XRP what can I say - it's doing nothing but hurting feelings. I bought more today.

I got the same e-mail.

Well I wrote that bitcoin would be back to the trendline by 8/20 that probably won't happen, we'll see how many days I'm wrong by but hey we we're only briefly below 10k and the MACD is turning up. Alts got eviscerated and I was away so I missed this buying opportunity (although the buying opportunity to a lesser degree is ongoing and I'll probably pick up some more today or tomorrow). Not that it means anything but this morning I was dreaming that I was watching the price of XRP go from $8.39 to $9.45 to $10.04, then I started cheering "Yeah I'm Rich!" and I woke myself up.

Been on vacation since Wednesday, just got back. Did I miss anything?