There is never one key thing, as a trader I look for setups. Combinations of both technicals, fundamentals and market psychology.
For the case of ripple you can say the following:
- Markets price in before facts (buy the rumour sell the news) , in this case it was the XRP lockup. Add to that that supply decrease compared to asset growth ratio was way too high above a certain point.
- The leg up above 15 000 satoshi was on very little new money coming in and lots of margin longs.It's the phase where market psychology wise greed kicks in.
- Ripple is scaling up in sales with an increase of 115% in sales hirings , other departments up 10-15%. They got a new office, attend conferences etc. It's no secret that Ripple sells small amounts of their XRP to pay for growth of the company. They would want to do that before they implement the lockup of course.
- Kraken added 5x margin on XRP/FIAT pairs which adds to the greed but also to the despair afterwards.
- Technical analysis of the price, volume, momentum, market maker levels and the way economic markets move in cycles
Sell when euphoria hits and buy when there's blood in the streets, this is not a team game. Can't have morals when trading because the big players won't have any either, you can't play the game of soccer on one leg.