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Everything posted by Nat99

  1. I guess that big engulfing bearish candle is the obstacle.
  2. Although the 50 SMA is crossing the 200 SMA, that engulfing bearish candle which is forming on the daily is looking nasty.
  3. Thanks for the continuous updates, @Eric123 as well as you insights. We all appreciate them. Much love from the plebs on the other side of the pond.
  4. For XRP, IMO the thing that matters is a daily candle to close above 1.28602. See below.
  5. May 2020 to April 2021 is almost a year. How long do you see this run going? January 2022? Also, Do you anticipate another blow off top with a subsequent 80%+ correction, or is the buying and hodling so much stronger than in 2018 and maybe we only have to see a +/-50% correction this time, that maybe even doesnt last that long. Kinda hinting at the "supercycle" theory or "the last cycle" by Willie Woo.
  6. isn't 50 & 200 the standard? (not that it matters, at this rate there'll be a cross on these two, too). Below screenshot is with SMA, not EMA. Not sure it makes that much of a difference anyway...
  7. This is indeed a tasteless tweet. I have to revise my statement and say that his take on finance is worth listening to. The rest needs closer examination.
  8. Have you seen Willy Woo's recent on-chain analysis? He makes the case for this being the last cycle. We'll see about that, but I have a feeling that the daily-DCA movement is gaining ground and it might just be that stubborn everyday buying by a price-ignorant retail crowd will avert a 2018-like bear market. Maybe we won't see 80%+ corrections again and more something like the May 2021 action. Any thoughts on this? Thanks for your inputs, highly appreciated.
  9. politics aside, even the recent infrastructure bill and the associated attack on BTC will prove to be a Streisand Effect, just like bitcoin magazine pointed out in a very recent article. It's all about adoption. It will be political suicide to be campaign BTC, when a third of your population owns it, which might very well be the case before the next US election. Max Keiser said it - we might have a Bitcoiner in the White House by 2024. Again, no politics here, just game theory.
  10. Right on. I had a trader tell me not to long ago: "give it a target, but not a timeframe, or give it a timeframe, but not a target" I agree. There have been some very successful corporate driven coins. I wonder if BTC will ever reach those 60%+ levels again. How do you see this?
  11. you were calling for sub 20 on the BTC.D chart, am I right? That would be a massive bullrun for alts. Man, those $50 per XRP fantasies are warming up again...
  12. I think you need to ask the question, why something "old" needs to be replaced with something new, or why "new" is better than old. Have we been conditioned to think like that by Silicon Valley? Here's a hint: BTC is the only digital asset that spontaneously formed its network and all the sub-networks with it. Gun powder has been around for several centuries and we still go to war with the same old tech. The cartridges/caliber specs we use today are sometimes 100+ years old. There certainly is tech that's better, but, and here comes the kicker: if you want one network to replace another, it needs to be 10x better than the previous one (rule of thumb). And so until we don't invent a mechanism that is 10x better that a .308 coming out of a barrell, that's what we'll go with. Facebook beat Myspace because it went mobile. And no, XRP being much faster in settlement than BTC doesn't matter, because BTC never competed with VISA, but with Fedwire, which takes days to settle. And in comparison to that, a 10 min private, permission-less settlement layer is definitely a 10x. No crypto currency is a 10x step function improvement over BTC and therefore they are no threat. Check this out for more on the 10x idea. https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoins-network-effect/
  13. Oh, it's on many fronts. I work in Asset Management and it's just insane how nobody is aware of the Cantillion Effect, how we lend out securities multiple times (yes, multiple clients have a claim on one and the same stock/bond), how we are operationally stuck in the 60s, with securities settling at T+2 and sometimes T+3 (investment funds), or even T+5 (certain OTC securities like senior loans/junior subordinated debt). Is there anything in particular you want me to go into?
  14. To be precise, gold and silver were never used as currency, but as money. The difference is important, given that "money" and "currency" can share the "medium of exchange" trait. "Currency" may be a store of value (assuming its convertibility is not being abused - humans have a bad track record in this), but "money" always is a store of value. Gold/Silver-backed currency was introduced later in the 19th century, with all the trouble we know about. It was essentially a second layer that perverted the first one (the actual metal itself), because the first layer couldn't be settled easily and the Bank of England became the de facto world's clearing house - with all the negative effects associated with this centralization that come with it.
  15. One way to explain why certain metals became money is that they were harder to produce than others. It ties into the Stock To Flow idea (S2F). Gold has the highest S2F, that's why it eventually replaced silver, which has a lower S2F. Ideally you wouldn't want a commodity to have any other use other than to be money, i.e. to have as close to a 100% of a monetary premium over its industrial use. Silver is used much more than Gold in terms of industrial demand. Satoshi Nakamoto had that comparison with some useless element that was ugly and couldn't do anything else but be seamlessly transferred. It would be great money, according to him (I believe he was assuming a fixed supply). I think it's important to view money as an idea, and when you take it from there, it doesn't matter what form it has, but rather its properties matter. In that sense gold was great, because it was shiny and a collectible, but the shiny nature of it also makes it hard for humans to separate the form from its properties which are essentially a hard to find/mine rock. Regarding "collectible" and the evolution of money, in the chart below, the "We are here" point is a bit outdated IMO. I think we're at step "Growing Network Value" and solidly on our way to "widespread medium of exchange". BTC adoption grows at 100-115% per year, according to Willy Woo (who looks at new entities formed on the Blockchain), which means that at this rate, by 2027/2028, everybody will own BTC. It would be a faster adoption rate than the internet, which grew at 85% p.a. It's easy to understand, given that BTC is a network (BTC itself) of a network (the internet) of a network (printing press manufactured books) of a network(manually written books) of a network (orally transmitted knowledge). And if you look at the lightning network growth, I think it has tripled in node count this year alone. So, the third layer of BTC, whatever that is, probably smart contracts of some sort, will probably grow at 500-1000% p.a. This dynamic totally eclipses gold, not only by S2F metrics, but by the network nature itself. Gold just can't keep up. It might increase in value in USD terms but it should approach/trend to zero in BTC terms.
  16. Interesting. There are coins one can stake that have no slashing. Theta, Tfuel and Mina, to name three that I have and stake. You always control your funds. With Theta/Tfuel the staking pool (I use gpool.io) can only send the coins back to the address they were delegated from. Polkadot can be slashed, so I only stake a little with Kraken. It's like 12% per year,, which is pretty solid. Mina is around 20%.
  17. I take him very seriously. I work in finance and I'm as enraged as he is. If I had his money I'd be talking similarly as he does.
  18. I think so, too. Agreed. So, in that sense, given it looks like shitcoins are a medium-term play, do you consider staking coins? Or is it capital gains only and put it into back into BTC?
  19. I know you follow only few voices in the space, Max Keiser being one of them. If both of you were sitting at a table, he would call you a shitcoiner. How would you respond to his BTC-Maximalist position?
  20. Your pics are doing well btw. Yes, I really called the watch list after you.
  21. not holding my breath, but didn't the time to refuse one of the ETH ETFs pass? Might hear sth soon.
  22. 45k & 49k are resistance. after that it's price discovery
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