taebuoytogI reacted to jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation
Dear XRPChat, I had planned on making another prediction of Q1 sales before the quarterly report came out, but unfortunately, my day job has been keeping me very busy so I didn't have the time needed to attend to it - and I had problems with my analysis that I didn't understand and that I hope I have rectified now. In my previous posts Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales and 2018 Q4 analysis, I summed payments from wallets to XRP-II to see what the quarterly payments were, and to total them up to see if they matched the sales figures announced by ripple. I had expected to do the same for Q1 2019, but the numbers looked wrong, my correlations were not consistent and the sales figures as a % of coinmarketcap volume didn't look right. I have extensively rewritten (and improved) my software and now have new findings that I feel confident enough about to share them.
First, lets remind ourself of daily sales by ripple - in previous threads I found a strong correlation between yesterday's trading volume on coinmarketcap and today's sales (transfers) to the XRP-II distribution wallet. I identified 4 wallets that appeared to sum to about the right amount to explain the sales figures in the quarterly reports. Those wallets were referred to as RP1, RP2, RP3 and RP9. I refer the interested reader to the links above to find further details. If we plot the daily payments from those 4 wallets into the XRP-II wallet (XRP-II being the legal entity licensed to sell XRP to exchanges and customers and is presumably responsible for the programmatic daily sales as well as any number of other sales that we know little about). Here's what the sales look like from April 2018 until today, Note the line plot (linear, left y axis) is the sum of all the individual payments represented by dots that are logarithmically plotted (right axis). I found a strong correlation between the sum of payments and the coinmarketcap exchange volume, scaled by a factor that was around the 0.3% mark.
I was intrigued by the drop in sales around mid Sept 2018 that preceeded a large jump in price and volume a week later. My hypothesis was that the drop in sales might be responsible for part of the rise in price (supply/demand). The sales pattern continued, largely unchanged until this year, though there are many wallets that transfer into XRP-II and they change over time, so it is difficult to be certain as to the true nature/volume or reason for the sales taking place. Please be aware that the graph above shows payments INTO the XRP-II wallet, and not out - this is because there are many more payments out and I was trying to identify that portion of sales that represents the daily programmatic sales. For the reasons I've just mentioned, it's too hard to be certain of any motives for individual wallet payments, so instead, I shall focus on payments OUT of XRP-II.
Let's have a look at another plot, this time I plot all transfers OUT of XRP-II going into exchange accounts. I am grateful for the google sheet provided by @Silkjaer for a list of wallets that I have used for my assumptions of exchange addresses.
You can immediately see that the payments to exchanges is very numerous. The summed total is shown by the solid line and the axes are consistent with the first plot. The totals also follow the same pattern as the sales into XRP-II from the subset of wallets, but is much higher as we are now including other payments from other wallets that are passed through and then go on to exchanges.
Let's now show a more interesting graph - this has plots of the total exchange volume from coinmarketcap in green, I have normalized the plot to have the same area under it as the summed total of payments into XRP-II with a time shift of 1 day to show the correlation of the two graphs. The lighter blue line is the RP1,2,3,9 payments into XRP-II and the darker blue line is the summed payments out to exchanges. You should hopefully be able to see that the correlation between XRP-II payments and exchange volume is very strong, however, the correlation starts to break down in Q1 2019 and deteriorates further in Q2 2019 - the reason why my earlier correlation plots failed to give (to me) satisfying results.
I have highlighted 3 regions on this plot. The first is in Sept 2018 (grey bar) when the sales from XRP-II virtually stopped. I speculated at the time that the xrp price (shown in the above plot as the black solid line) dropped to a low value for the year and probably ripple wanted to support the price by holding off sales temporarily. If that was the plan, then it worked very well as there was a massive jump at the end of Sept that still defies any reasonable explanation. So many news announcements are constantly being made about partnerships with ripple and events taking place that it is hard to know what might have triggered the rise.
The second (grey bar) highlighted region in the plot is in May of this year - the difference between the green (coinmarketcap) and blue lines become very clear. Ripple shut down sales significantly again this month, and we have seen the price rise from ~30c to ~40c. I begin to wonder if my earlier hypothesis might have been correct, but sadly, two events is not enough for a 5 sigma announcement!
What else is interesting in the plot? - the red shaded rectangle represents a point where the price of bitcoin was pumping hard, the exchange volume for all coins soared, but the price of XRP did not move very much. Why is that - we can see that the two blue lines rise well above the green one as ripple increased sales significantly - I speculate that they did not wish to see the price shoot up as we saw in Dec 2017, only to fall down again after the pump/dump/fomo/madness was over.
Another interesting piece of data is revealed in the plot - the red crosses are payments from exchange accounts BACK to XRP-II - this hardly ever happened in 2018, except for a few scattered points in the year and a cluster of them around Sept 2018 when the sales halted. It is my second hypothesis that ripple have changed strategy during Q1. Prior to this, we see an almost constant sale of XRP proportional to exchange volume, during Q1, particularly after Feb 2019, the sales deviate from a simple pattern and we see returns from exchanges back to XRP-II. It would appear that their algorithm is smarter now and is trying to adapt better to market fluctuations rather than just continuously sell every day.
Do we have any way of corroborating this? well, I'm glad you asked. Here's another graph, this time I take a sliding window of 10 days worth of data from XRP-II sales, and the same 10 day window of data from coinmarketcap exchange volume and correlate them, normalize them and plot the scaling coefficient. This gives us the XRP-II sales as a % fraction of the coinmarketcap volume in a running plot and we can see the fluctuation in sales as time progresses. The solid line shows the closing price of XRP, the two dotted lines are the running scale coefficients of the daily % of sales from XRP-II - the red is RP1,2,3,9 the green is ALL payments from exchanges (subtracting the return payments shown by the red crosses in the plot above).
Now we can see quite clearly the event in Sept 2018 and the massive drop in may 2019. what is now apparent is Feb-May 2019 there was a large increase in sales as a % of daily volume. Throughout 2018, the red line holds reasonably closely to 0.15% of daily sales, which is fairly consistent with the figures quoted in the ripple quarterly reports. In Q1, things start deviating, and Q2 is all over the place. The drops in Sep 2018 and May 2019 are both followed by XRP price rallies. I added a dotted line at 0.05% of sales just to show how low the sales have dipped.
What do I conclude from this...
Ripple have changed their selling strategy to better adapt to market conditions and during March/April they increased quite significantly the sales, presumably to smooth out market pump/dump peaks and troughs. Financial institutions do not want like price fluctuations as it increases their cost of holdings - something we should all be grateful for as we want banks to buy in, not run away. Price fluctuations can also increase lay-off costs for market makers which also negatively impacts the market. (We're in this for the long play after all). There has been a slight decoupling over the last month or two with BTC as sales from XRP-II have been historically speaking very high. The large volumes we've seen did not move the price as much as one would have expected. Now would be a great time to pump XRP if whales are reading this! with XRP-II sales very low, it will be easier to move the market. Please go ahead and do this if you can. I'd like to see how high you can push XRP EDIT: I forgot to add one point - why do I think that sales have dropped in recent days? My suspicion (pure speculation) is that with the bear market seemingly coming to an end, Ripple feel safer in allowing the price to rise slightly to accommodate the new corridors they are adding.
All the data has been collected here by a random amateur on the internet. I do not even know for sure if the wallets I examine belong to XRP-II. I do not know for sure if the exchange address I use are correct. All the data in this article could be wrong. I might have even made it up just for giggles (I didn't but how do you know? Do you trust me?) This is not investment advice. But IMHO price rises are more likely when XRP-II sales are low.
taebuoytogI reacted to Hodor in Ripple XRP Will be Used as FX Means of Settlement Instead of US Dollar – Wall Street Forum
Wow that's an impressive quote, but I'm having trouble sourcing the video. Does anybody have the link to the source video that the author is talking about? I'd like to review it on my own as well.
All three comments to the article online are asking for the same thing - the source for the article, but I don't see it.
taebuoytogI reacted to cryptoxrp in Ripple XRP Will be Used as FX Means of Settlement Instead of US Dollar – Wall Street Forum
"The forum agreed unanimously that Ripple XRP will become a means of Foreign Exchange settlement instead of the US Dollar. The reason for this conclusion is based on so many factors."
"Since the settlement of payment in XRP is faster than the dollar, the forum believes XRP will be used as the settlement currency in the next five years."
taebuoytogI reacted to kenrino in Launching a New Remittance Corridor from Saudi Arabia to India
taebuoytogI reacted to cryptoxrp in Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse bullish on [XRP] beating SWIFT.
Garlinghouse says 6% of the transactions conducted by SWIFT are under human control.
XRP ledger is ‘thousand times’ faster than the BTC network,” according to Ripple’s CEO.
taebuoytogI reacted to ObeyTheWafflehouse in Stronghold Platform Integrates with Interledger Payments Protocol
"Stronghold USD is the first asset-backed U.S. dollar enabled-connector on ILP."
"Institutional investors and traders may use ILP to exchange U.S. dollars for Stronghold USD, XRP, BTC and any other asset supported by our trading ecosystem."
"Stronghold’s goal is to put a digital wallet in every pocket, so we’re happy to work with “the protocol for the internet of value” to advance that mission!"
taebuoytogI reacted to tony71 in It’s right in front of us
So last month March 14th I took an image shot of all the exchanges holding XRP which was around 10.7 billion and today less than a month it is 11.6 billion. So if this keeps up at 1 billion a month being added to the exchanges by year end it will be
dec 14th 2019 - 19.6 billion XRP
dec 14th 2020. - 43.6 Billon XRP
dec 14th 2022- 55.6 billion XRP
dec 14th 2023 - 67.6 billion XRP
Im not sure if the exchanges are building up on the Xrp in circulation or if they are buying from the escrow ?
here is the link I suggest taking a screen shot beginning of the month and checking a month later
taebuoytogI reacted to Panosmek in Mercury FX CEO: We’re sending tens of thousands of dollars weekly through xRapid
taebuoytogI reacted to peanut56 in Intellyx (Hired Fudsters)
Came across this on twitter in response to the Ripple is a scam Article that caused a lot of disgruntled remarks and so here it is Hired FUD. https://intellyx.com
Subscriptions Range from $9,547- $40,457 dollars a year. Just type in the search box XRP and look at the articles that **** you off and raise your blood pressure.
It looks like they are targeting English speaking countries, South America, and Asia. I wonder why?
taebuoytogI reacted to Naimless in Had anybody been successfull determining XRapid volume?
This is probably the closest anyone has come.
taebuoytogI reacted to VanGogh in Vitalik Buterin Says Ripple’s XRP Is A Better Option Than Bitcoin Due To Institutional Adoption And Partnerships
That is remarkable he tweeted that. Prepare for the price of XRP to drop further in our world of opposites! All other coins will shoot back up including etherium and bitcoin.
taebuoytogI reacted to Xrphunter in University Blockchain Research Initiative Expands Global Footprint with 11 New Partners
Ripple has expanded the group of partners within its University Blockchain Research Initiative (UBRI). This global initiative, which launched in June 2018, now supports 29 schools to further accelerate academic research, technical development and innovation in blockchain, cryptocurrency and digital payments. Since its launch, UBRI has helped foster increasing levels of interest and academic activity by leading faculty, post-doctoral and graduate students at many of the world’s top universities.
The new cohort of partners includes a broader and even more global selection of top-tier university and college partners, representing a wide variety of academic disciplines. New UBRI partners include:
Carnegie Mellon University
University of Kansas
University of Michigan
Morgan State University
National University of Singapore
University of Sao Paulo
Institute for Fintech Research, Tsinghua University
taebuoytogI reacted to Greeny in We all got fooled again.
Good news came out yesterday with the R3 and Swift partnership, we all got excited so the day traders used that as a time to do a 14% pump and dump. 24 hours later right back at the 30 cent range and probably about to fall into the upper 20s. I will admit that article about all of ripples partners been scams, was a bit unnerving to me . I have been around this firm for a long time and was a serious believer in Ripple, but admit that I am starting to have doubts about their future.
taebuoytogI reacted to Xrphunter in Stuart Alderoty Joins Ripple as General Counsel
Ripple, a provider of leading enterprise blockchain solutions for global payments, today announced Stuart Alderoty has joined the company as General Counsel, reporting to Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse. In this role, he oversees all legal services and manages the company’s global legal, policy and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) compliance teams.....
taebuoytogI reacted to jbjnr in Q4 analysis/prediction
Dear XRPChat, As the Ripple Q4Markets Report is imminent, I'd like to present an update to my previous analysis of ripple sales (in thread linked here)
With a focus this time, on Q4 sales from 2018-10-01 to 2018-12-31.
The previous findings were that Ripple has been selling approximately 3% of daily volume and this trend appears to have continued without any significant change. I shall confine my plots to the period 2018-04-01 (2018-Q2) onwards, as this appears to be a time when a strategy shift occurred in the xrp sales and data appears consistent after this time. The up-to-date plot of daily sales (from the account previously referred to as RP2) to tagged (presumed to be exchange) accounts is
and the correlation to daily volume is
Which maintains the finding that around 1/35 = ~3% of daily volume is being sold off with the previous days volume (shift =1day) used as the reference. NB. Using the time period 2018-04-01 from cryptocompare.com to today as reference.
I had previously hypothesized that ripple are selling xrp not only from their warchest of escrowed tokens, but also from founders/staff accounts since the declared sales of xrp in the Q2/Q3 reports do not tally with the summed totals I found in sales from RP2. This seems entirely reasonable and I decided to investigate this further.
Two further pieces of information are useful. The first is that as pointed out in a recent comment by hodor - in the Q3 report, ripple state that their programmatic sales are 0.17% of market total (and total sales 0.43%). This is quite a significant difference from the 3% sales I have calculated. Either Ripple are using a different source of volume figures for their data, or I am not looking at the right numbers/wallets. Perhaps if I take only a subset of the 3% sales, they will match the numbers reported by ripple. In the previous analysis thread, I did not manage to find a good match between ripple's declared figures and the ones I presented - to try to improve this, I looked at the wallets that supply RP2 with the xrp that is sold daily. There are 9 of them, and I have labelled them as RD1, RD2, ... RD9 (for Ripple Daily 1-9). The payments from April until now are
It's clear that they follow a similar pattern to the overall sales in the earlier plot since these are just the payments into the RP2 account that are then distributed to exchanges.
Perhaps the 9 accounts represent different sources of xrp that correspond to warchest/founders/charity/other wallets that contribute to daily sales. This is a breakdown of the payments from the 9 into RP2 for recent quarters
And let us remind ourselves of the ripple sales as published in the quarterly reports
We are interested in 2018 Q2/Q3 programmatic sales and if any of the accounts RD1-9 match the figures quoted. The answer is "no", but perhaps several of the accounts together combined match the figures we are looking for.
Summing RD1 RD2 RD3 RD9 gives a quite close result for Q2/Q3, here are the numbers
The totals are 57.56 and 66.71 compared to 56.55 and 65.27. Those numbers are just 1.7% and 2.2% out for Q2 and Q3 respectively. Perhaps those are the accounts that are feeding the programmatic sales. If that is a correct assumption, then 2018-Q4 programmatic sales should be $83.47m. Allowing for +/-2.5% we would have a range of $81.4m to $85.6m. Actually, I suspect the number will be a little less because RD1,RD2,R3 look like good candidates, but why add RD9 in Q3 which had zero sales prior to then. Removing RD9 from the sum increases the error and reduces the total so I would not be surprised if the figure was a little lower. But I'll stick to $83.5m as a prediction for Q4 sales.
One thing that troubles me is that the figures I get for programmatic sales using RD1,2,3,9 amounts to 1/57.33 = 0.1744 or 1.7% of the volume (which is about right, since we are only including half the accounts in our programmatic sales estimate that was ~3%).
But in the Ripple Q3 report, they state that they sold only 0.17% of volume programmatically. And based on the figures presented in the report, it looks as though the volume data they are using is much higher than that sourced by myself, so I shall revisit these figures with better volume data. The average daily volume from their data is >$400M daily, which seems about right. It may be that the /v2/network/external_markets API can provide figures that improve the correlations with sales and give a better match to the %volume figures.
I said earlier that two further pieces of information were useful. One was the sales % numbers in the markets report, the second is that we do have extra data that might help us identify direct sales as well as programmatic ones. The extra data is the xrp distribution figures. Ripple provide data on how much xrp is in existence, how much is distributed/undistributed and escrowed. If we know how much xrp there is in April 2018 and we know how much is sold, escrowed and destroyed etc, then whatever remains in the difference between distributed and undistributed must be xrp that ripple has either loaned out or sold OTC. If it is undistributed, then it is part of the monthly escrow release but still sitting in a ripple wallet - if it is distributed, then it has been 'used' in some capacity.
Lets have a look at the raw distribution data, here I've added 3 columns, 'remains' is just a sanity check to make sure that the totals are consistent (total-(escrowed+dist+undist)) and is zero or occasionally 1 due to roundoff errors. burned is the change in total each month and diff is the change in distributed. The other columns are as read from https://data.ripple.com/v2/network/xrp_distribution
date distributed escrowed total undistributed remains burned diff
2018-01-07 39029058672 54000000024 99992855589 6963796893 0 NaN NaN
2018-01-14 39029001738 54000000024 99992777885 6963776123 0 77704.0 -56934.0
2018-01-21 39029011222 54000000024 99992725510 6963714263 1 52375.0 9484.0
2018-01-28 39032356092 54000000024 99992664799 6960308683 0 60711.0 3344870.0
2018-02-04 39094802192 53900000024 99992622540 6997820324 0 42259.0 62446100.0
etc etc ... when plotted the data for 2018 looks like the following graph. Note that we see drops in distributed XRP when it is placed in escrow (or potentially when large amounts are burned, but this is very small since the cap on transaction fees was introduced after a user lost 100k+ xrp in accidental fees).
If we resample the distribution data to end of month totals, subtract the total distributed at the start of the period (giving zero initial distribution at the start of April 1st 2018, = start of Q2), then subtracting what we believe has been sold (using the figures we know from part I above) for each month, then the left over should be the amount that has been distributed by ripple, but not declared as part of programmatic sales. It should be 'direct sales' + xrp distribution from 'any other business' (sch as incentivisation of market makers and loans of xrp etc). The next graph shows the distributed xrp starting at zero on 1st April, with monthly and quarterly final amounts alongside. Note that as the distribution data is only published weekly, there can be big differences between the month end resampled and original data. For example, the data for the first week of Dec 2018 is 500m higher than the previous entry during the last week of Nov, and so the monthly Nov fig is much lower than the true data. Fortunately no big differences exist at quarterly boundaries so we don't need to make any adjustments to the data or our sampling.
Previously we showed the quarterly sales from RD1,2,3,9 in $$$, the sales in terms of xrp tokens are
so we should subtract those from the quarterly distribution numbers which are
date distributed(since start Q2)
Q2 65m, Q3 583.7m, Q4 1042.7m as the unaccounted for XRP for the 3 quarters we are interested in. Ripple have told us that in Q2 their direct sales were $16.87m - but we do not know what price they were sold at. The best we can do is use a flat rate based on the sales we do know about. In Q2 we found 81m xrp sold for $57.56m so we estimate that 23.7m xrp would have sold for $16.87m. This gives us (if we repeat the process for Q3)
Q2 programmatic = 81m, direct = 23.7m, mystery remainder = 41.3m xrp
Q3 programmatic = 151.8m, direct = 221.1m, mystery remainder = 583.7-221.1 = 362m xrp
for Q4 we have
Q4 programmatic = 196.3m, unaccounted for 866.5m of which some is going to be direct sales and some is unaccounted for.
I had hoped that by conducting this little experiment, I would be able to recover the direct sales numbers from ripple, but unfortunately the numbers don't add up. There is still xrp being released that is unaccounted for. In Q2, it's 41m xrp, in Q3 it jumps to 362m and in Q4 we do not know the direct sales figures yet, but it could be anywhere from 0-866m xrp which would translate into a very large figure in $$$. Probably some of the xrp bound to the R3 settlement is included in this number, and probably the direct sales for Q4 will be very high (I'd guess over $100m). We will know soon and I will update my calculations when the Q4 report is released.
Conclusion. TL;DR : My best guess for Q4 figures is between $81m and $86m for programmatic sales, over $100m for direct sales and a ton of xrp being loaned out, or distributed as part of other agreements. As usual, all my numbers are guesswork and as soon as I click send, I'll find loads of mistakes, please consider this analysis as a simple diversion from other mundane aspects of life.
edit : deleted an image pasted by accident and fixed some typos
taebuoytogI reacted to qsdqsd in Mercury-fx using XRP
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3/3 "As a food production company supplying 500+ restaurants in the UK & Europe, we pay suppliers around the world to get quality ingredients for our customers. Faster, cheaper payments allow us to fulfill orders quickly and grow our business." James Durrant, Commercial Director.