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About Nedkt

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  1. It means charts are bullsh!t for cryptocurrency, esp with respect to correction situations. You won't discern anything. There are so many issues in play, a chart will never capture the dynamics.
  2. The GDAX flash crash probably also set the stage and a lot of people were unnerved. Funny that was also ETH, but could have been anything.
  3. In my opinion ETH created this secondary crash. Between blown ICO disasters and this:
  4. The true speculators and traders will pop from coin to coin, depending on where they see profit opportunities. As I said above, you may see a pump to .40 or even .50 USD at some point, but it will settle back to the .30 range. "New money" that just invests and "hodls" will tend to go to the coins that have loud advocates and high profile. Ripple the company isn't asking these people to invest, but the other coin teams are. XRP will pick up some of these people, but other coins pushing their profile will gain more, whether it is justified or not. The price may spike from speculation, but it will return to the base. In my opinion, unless there is a massive XRP development and resulting announcement this year, the value will end about where it is today. The future value of XRP is currently staked on a single key use-case, adoption by banks for day to day activity. Everything else is just noise until that happens. This is my opinion. I could be wrong, but after watching every single attempt to predict the price movements for this asset fail miserably since the major run-up a few months ago and researching extensively, it is what I see. If Ripple were to publicly encourage investment on XRP by the traders and speculators, that could swing things positively, but I don't see them doing that at all.
  5. These observations are for XRP behavior post-"big bang". The period where it exploded in value from effectively nothing and ran up to .40 USD is not indicative of any behavior in the future. Many alt coins had similar expansions (to varying degrees), so looking to the past in my opinion is a waste of time. You won't see the kind of pure speculation that drove that kind of explosion again on XRP. The past in this case has no bearing on the future. The XRP value seems to have a powerful gravitational pull into the .26 to .29 range. Always sub .30 but always eventually rising above .26 after a drop. The degree to which XRP hewed to an avg value at times led people to raise the issue of price fixing, manipulation, etc. I won't go into that here. Suffice to say, there is a black hole at .27/.28 and XRP is orbiting it. I can't see that black hole, because, well, it's a black hole. But as Michael Corleone stated "Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in". Every time it appears XRP is out of this zone, it dumps right back into it. The non-correlation claim between XRP and the other currencies that I have seen floating around is not completely true. XRP always crashes with the market but doesn't rally with the market. If I see BTC drop hard, XRP is probably doing the same thing. Several possible recent XRP rallies have been wiped out by a broader market correction or downturn that happened simultaneously. The XRP rally momentum is killed and it doesn't pick up where it left off (unfortunately). XRP rallies are delicate and easily derailed. There are two factors which separate XRP from some of the other coins: 1. Ripple will not publicly advocate for traders and speculators to buy it up. I assume they can't. As a US corporation, it would probably open them up to litigation if something went wrong or if they decided to discontinue. I could be wrong and there might be other reasons. Either way the lack of a hard push with traders and speculators works against the value increasing in the medium term. The other coins have developers and leadership practically begging the community to buy. All the XRP owners on this forum basically depend on the exchange traders to establish the value. The value of a serious crypto-coin is a function of perceived future utility and promise (disregarding any manipulation). In my opinion, that current perceived value is already pretty much priced in for XRP. People are waiting for the other shoe to drop, i.e. #2 below. 2. The use case, THE use case, is banks adopting the currency and actively using it. From my perspective, until there is an announcement of a bank (any bank) actively adopting XRP and using XRP day to day specifically for its intended purpose (not simply experimenting), you won't see massive gains that STICK. You may see run-ups. It may hit .40 or even .50 USD based on a speculative push, but it will always come back to .30-ish or below unless the surge was in response to a major announcement about XRP being used by banks in production. This is why XRP seems to react not at all or even negatively to good news these last couple of months. It isn't the "right" news. There is a very specific announcement the big investors are waiting for. And that announcement hasn't happened yet. Note I am putting no limits on how much XRP can eventually grow. It could go to $1, $10 etc. But unless we see a big announcement, I don't see that happening this year. These are just some thoughts. Please feel free to debunk, challenge or disagree. I claim no special deep knowledge, just what I have gleaned from observing closely for the last few months.
  6. I have spent a good amount of time on their slack channels, looking at their Github and looking at their team output. I am not convinced they can turn this cool idea into a product. And I was an early enthusiast. They are years away from anything. I don't see the the deep skill and knowledge required to make it functional, especially on the security side, and the work to-date appears curiously sparse. Though their marketing is slick. The idea is awesome. Their ability to execute it is very questionable. This was an ICO that happened two or three years too early IMO.
  7. R8, please, if you could, comment on this analysis and provide a quick breakdown explaining the differing conclusions. Just curious.
  8. I don't have a subscription to that site. Can you summarize? Thanks.
  9. Short term, Litecoin is going to move beyond $50. The recent uptick is just a taste. You will see some bitcoin moving into LTC heading into Aug 1. LTC is also very popular in Asia. In my opinion, it's almost a guaranteed increase over the next 30 days.
  10. I got my degree from the University of Wisconsin in Madison.
  11. I know. Advances are being made all the time. Entanglement is only at the cusp of being understood, especially in its implications for information theory and cosmology. But keeping particles entangled after a launch in a rocket? Not there yet. Unless they suddenly and MASSIVELY vaulted ahead of all other research after not having any history in it. Which is extremely unlikely. Again, China needs to publish enough details that outside experts can confirm or deny. Otherwise it is just political oneupsmanship.
  12. By examining the entrails you can sometimes see the future.
  13. You have a LOT of money in the space now that came for bitcoin and only really knows bitcoin. That's the group that will be confused. The "crypto people" will just move to other currencies. Other investors may not be so quick to slam their money into a different coin.
  14. If they claimed break-even fusion and didn't share the details, I would scoff at that as well. Test results so it can be examined and repeated or it is just a claim in a vacuum. It's not valid until someone has the opportunity to examine whether it can be invalidated.