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Everything posted by Ripley

  1. It need not be 10K. It might also be based on the tranche of equity that they have access to. Sometimes, for popular companies, there is a market for those secondary markets (tertiary?) that you can participate in bulk. Equity Zen calls these “Express Deals” as opposed to “Standard Deals”. For example, right now someone who has $130000 can buy 2500 Class A Preferred Ripple Stock for $52 each, at an implied valuation of $9.4B. I’d guess that this is someone who participated in a previous offering at a lower valuation. Given today’s valuation of $15B, someone with that much money can make a table profit of 60%. The risk is that you don’t know when the company would go public. Or if it would go public. You don’t know if the company’s valuation goes down after you buy into a secondary market. You may not be able to get rid of your investment. So the potential gains should be balanced against that risk, even if you can afford it. These are illiquid investments.
  2. Need to be an accredited investor in the US, I’m afraid. At least 200K per year income if you’re filing single, 300K if married filing jointly (i.e including spouse income if any) or worth $1M, not counting your primary residence or something like that.
  3. It’s the same with EquityZen. You are not going to be buying Ripple shares. It is closer to owning a stake in a DAO that owns Ripple equity.You get actual equity through a liquidation event (IPO, Acquisition, etc) And the $10000 amount could be the minimum given the legal fees to manage that structure, or it could be a minimum mandated by law that allows secondary sales. I’m not sure.
  4. You’re right about SBI being an earlier investor. But they also participated in Series C.
  5. Brad just confirmed that this was just Series C shares. Definitely about booting Tetragon off the board I think. SBI also may have participated in that round so that’s a nice bonus for them. Of course they must also be holding older and more valuable equity.
  6. Actually I was wrong. Sorry about that. I just checked and SFIN staking does exist with ExFi collateralised loans and gives out CAND and SGB as rewards. This means there is a way to get a valuation for SFIN. It’s not all speculation. Rough math, with bad assumptions but just wanted to illustrate how I would try and look at a valuation. Assuming a total of 10B in loans are taken in an year, with average fees as 1%, that’s 10M in fees. Let’s add another 5% in bad debts/liquidations etc. So a total of 60M of revenues per year. Assuming all 11000 SFIN are staked for loan proceeds alone, that gives us ~5500 USD per year per 1 SFIN. Like I said, my assumptions could be wildly wrong. We might have much higher liquidations, fees, loans, or a combination. And actual valuation would likely be a multiple of 1 years valuation. If Flare Finance is successful, I think expecting a 6-10% per annum returns for your investment is a good solid value prop. So if I buy 1 SFIN at 100K, I personally would be very happy with an average 10K returns per annum. But I would be very disappointed if Flare Finance just folds in 2 years because I’ll never get back my investment.
  7. I think no one cares about governance. I think ExFi and DFLR/YFLR are a lot more valuable because there is a cash flow component to holding it and staking it in Loans for some fixed income.
  8. Tetragon filed that lawsuit. My reading is that while Ripple did win the lawsuit, they didn’t want to have anything to do with Tetragon anymore, and certainly not on the board. I’d imagine filing the lawsuit triggered an exit clause and Ripple was able to buy back those shares.
  9. It’s a 50% profit for 2019 investors, and I think you are right about the motivation. But the article is really referring to institutional investors. The valuation pre-2019 funding was 3.4B. Retailers who bought in secondary markets like EquityZen before the 2019 round made a ~500% profit I’m sure there are some of those lurking in these forums. And that’s the company’s valuation. Depending on how strong their cash flows are, when they go IPO, they are likely to trade in multiples of that. PS: Obviously the valuation (correctly) doesn’t count their XRP holdings.
  10. I understood it as buying back Tetragon’s equity because of the bad blood between them as the motivation. They may have gotten more, but that is because they significantly grew their business. The 50% profit really is only applicable for those who participated in the 2019 round. The ones who invested early (like SBI, Andreesson Horowitz etc) have seen several times that. See my post below on pre-2019 valuation.
  11. This may not be the right approach.. If I go to https://songbird-explorer.flare.network/token/0x0D94e59332732D18CF3a3D457A8886A2AE29eA1B/token-holders, I see 10062 SFIN with 0x0D94e59332732D18CF3a3D457A8886A2AE29eA1B, along with 225000 ExFi. See top 15 below. The rest have < 0.2SFIN I will take that to mean 938 SFIN in circulation, including at exchanges and with whales. Some of the top addresses here could also be other ExFi products (LPs, Loans, etc.) 0x3b07881839C04Ad3A0904BcA09Ece7447200f2bc 10,062.499 SFIN 91.4773% 0x921E8f58cF517d289c01BCBE800c2d31838c1a28 142.180393453687029664 SFIN 1.2925% 0x02785B7CE6Eb9A5858561DDAB64cCBE5c478b730 142.115401338840608333 SFIN 1.2920% 0xc5478a1d5914cF9D0Ee20Da21459502eCb7E1646 142.057877594232527795 SFIN 1.2914% 0x864201b2227Ee23f0875c5D3Fc49F4F0ec59aC19 142.016757736940924414 SFIN 1.2911% 0x6BA0F675EB2f169D15764D5cf10C4EF0e9e059f2 95.205025300781922062 SFIN 0.8655% 0xc9231AB30b2B39c1f7f79132D7a44bBF0F8144B0 95.133582550779930922 SFIN 0.8649% 0x554742076743b366504972F86609d64fd18BDC34 77.18670847338421022 SFIN 0.7017% 0x38A03CD3140249C2c7311bfa6c9A63A0262212A0 29.627815062702871041 SFIN 0.2693% 0xc1BED4C40352C511B10A01A82e9ccff1ef479C23 25.782296043940650104 SFIN 0.2344% 0x32b36B0A8B74Ac9212946a99e0af727848D5A3A1 23.728273582317224758 SFIN 0.2157% 0x48195Ca4D228ce487AE2AE1335B017a95493Ade6 15.789272768052529203 SFIN 0.1435% 0x5CbbaEA64e28e1B33FD95f2216D8365CB6B85a6F 4.896486947333526127 SFIN 0.0445% 0x72C8908511F31A241D5f05F2fB10AAD14DCeC3cf 0.22907857740759886 SFIN 0.0021% 0x9DFCfDE58D9C19bBec48DE91539EE29eFF6B7637 0.220945036806514998 SFIN 0.0020%
  12. The most conservative and promising DeFi product I’ve seen is Probity/Trustline on Songbird/Flare. If you are in the US, unfortunately you will need to be an accredited investor under current regulations. Accreditation not needed if you are outside the US. KYC is mandatory to participate in Probity. And they are sensitive to Usury laws in the US (https://www.upcounsel.com/lectl-state-interest-rates-and-usury-limits) When there is high demand for loans, yield goes up to attract depositors. When there are too many depositors, yield goes down to attract those who want to take loans. Simple. Backed by Flare/Songbird. Adding XRPL post lawsuit clarity. Additions through governance. No fancy tokenomics. Strictly adherent to regulations. Will provide an inflation resistant stablecoin (USD2020). Stablecoins can be trustlessly moved to XRPL and will likely support direct withdrawal through supported banks. It’s the DeFi product I’m looking forward to the most. FYI @Troote, in case you are interested.
  13. Frankly I think @Troote is closer to being right here. Most of the high yield products are - Backed by assets that are re-hypothecated several times over (which is what caused 2008 financial crash, except with houses) OR - From those who are taking the risk of putting up fiat and hoping the crypto they hold will go higher (which will fail in a bear market) OR - Funded by those who want to launder money through voluntary liquidations. Community is left holding the crypto and and launderers get away with Fiat. There is a valid case where getting rid of banks and other middlemen does free up more yield but that’s may be low to mid single digits. Not double digits.
  14. White House can't make long term policy. It won't last long. They can empower institutions to make policy. I think that is what we will see. They need to tread lightly. Otherwise, they will lose mid-terms badly. Crypto is that rare subject that has bipartisan voter support. It's not like abortion rights, gun control, etc. where there are strong views on both sides. Obviously they'll tax more. Somehow I don't think we will see any policy that will affect Ripple lawsuit any time soon.
  15. If the motion is denied, I wonder if that is enough for the SEC to come to the negotiations table.
  16. Not 0.3. If we fail 0.45, I think XRP will go to 0.25-0.27 and BTC to sub 20000. Again, depending on why it is going down. If it is a dump by whales, I like to think of "what will make retail truly scared". But you could be right about temporary relief. I think it will depend on FOMC minutes Tuesday/Wednesday + Ukraine situation.
  17. Depends on why there was a crash over the weekend and right now. Possible reasons: Could be "bear/bull cycle", though I personally don't believe in bear/bull cycles. Bear/bull cycles only happen in regulated markets. In crypto, I only see them as pump and dump by whales. But the effect is the same for retailers. Could be tied to inflation/higher interest rates, anticipation of equity market crashes, turning off QE by U.S. Fed, etc. FOMC is scheduled this week - I think tomorrow/day after tomorrow. Could be #2 + extra nail in the head this morning due to Geopolitical Tensions in the Baltic Sea. Could be upcoming regulations/executive order in February from the White House. We have had hearings with key crypto stakeholders - both regulatory and industry. We have had hearings around stablecoins, CFTC vs SEC vs both, climate change vs. Proof of Work, Fed CBDC white paper etc. If it is #2 and #3, I think there is a chance for market to go up after Q1/Q2. That is, anywhere between April and July. There is no guarantee of course. We have been in a bubble for close to 10 years. If it is #1 or #4, then the only way to change is retail interest. Something must happen as part of #4 or some other reason for which retail decides to once again put money into crypto. In a real bear market, everything will be down. Bonds, Equities, Crypto, Cash (inflation), etc. There won't be any safety. Short term advice would be to take your crypto, especially stablecoins, out of CeFi (Celsius, Nexo, BlockFi etc.) and if possible, hold crypto in your wallet and stablecoins as fiat in your bank. Best case scenario, you will lose only 2, 3 months of interest. Worst case scenario, assets go so low that withdrawals are paused. Those companies have NO LEGAL OBLIGATION to give you back your crypto. And stablecoin issuers (Circle, Tether) have no obligation to you, to exchange tokens with fiat. You are not their customer.
  18. I think we will see 26/27k BTC and 0.45 XRP this week.
  19. It was based on price action so far since December 2020. My point was about there being multiple approaches and not just one, and that each approach has a cost and a benefit. Your example of $2 gives slight better returns but once you hit $2.5 or more, it starts to lose to longer term play. In any case, like you said, points have been made. Hope both of us make good profits over time.
  20. Always different ways to trade/invest. Different ways to make and lose money.
  21. You’re right on this calculation. Profit of 4k over 6k. My overall point stands though. Your approach is more about trading. I am comfortable with long term view. I’m not a momentum trader. That doesn’t mean I’m waiting for ATH, which is what you suggested. I’m waiting on changes in other factors. I might sell at 2x profit or 200x profit or never. Or I may lose my funds because of a bad bet. I have my hedges that will make up for losses in other bets.
  22. Yep. Agreed. Also wash sales have been tremendously valuable in the past few years for crypto in the US. Should be interesting once they’re banned.
  23. Your example wasn't accurate. See below. Also, you simply brushed away "10k buyback is nice to have but not relevant". It is not relevant to you. I respect that. But it is relevant to me. Note: I know this is hypothetical. I'm simply trying to explain that you have discounted various factors. So let me go through it again. I also made a mistake in calculating profits because of a typo. I corrected that below but it doesn't change the conclusion. Put 7192 @ 1 USD and sell at @ 2 USD. That is not 4171 USD added to your capital. You are left with a total of 4171 USD and 0 XRP. I don't understand how it became 11363 USD. Buy 10000 XRP at 0.2 USD. Balances: -2000 USD, 10000 XRP. Sell everything at 1.4. Profit = (1.4 - 0.2) * 10000 = 1.2 * 10000 = 12000. After taxes, Balances: 6960 USD, 0 XRP Buy XRP at $1. Balances: 0 USD, 6960 XRP Sell everything at $2. Profit = 6960 USD. After taxes, Balances = 6960*0.58 = 4036.8, 0 XRP You have mentioned 11363 USD. How does that happen? Did I miss something? Even if we take the original number (which was wrong), after selling at $2, I am left with 4171 USD and 0 XRP. As you see above, if I stopped at step 1, I would have made 2x profits in USD. If I did both step 1 and step 2, I will be left with 3x profits in USD. Selling 10000 directly at $2 gives USD 10,440 after tax if it is short term capital gains (no additional factors) Of course, this is just a hypothetical example of course. But you need to understand that capital gains taxes are not a joke. If you are lucky to be in a country like Belgium where there are no capital taxes, then great! Your approach may be very good! It won't work for me. I didn't understand how I can magically sell 20k at $2. Where am I getting 20k XRP? Maybe I misunderstood you. That's okay. And as you can see above, they *are* significant. And they are not constraints. They are choices. Both approaches have their own risk. One is not better than the other. I am neither ATH hunting nor risking any discount. The whole point of what I said was that I have a very long-term view. When it goes down enough, I buy, if that is the best place to put my money at that time. When it goes up enough, I can take a few profits here and there based on various factors. But I am not buying and selling based on TA. I don't trade. At least not at intra-day or daily charts. Monthly, perhaps. It depends. Just because XRP goes to ATH doesn't mean it is too overbought. Hypothetically, say U.S. CBDC is built on private XRPL and XRP goes to ATH in 2 days. Will you sell? And just because XRP goes to 0.15 doesn't mean it is cheap. May be the court says secondary sales are securities. Will you buy? Macro factors matter. Personal factors matter. DOGE is down 80%. Doesn't mean I think it is "cheap". Examples of macro factors: Regulatory changes (stablecoin regulations, DeFi, action against exchanges, etc.) , macro factors like Inflation and Fed's response (which you yourself admitted is very important), geopolitical risks (China/Russia vs the West), Climate Change, and of course specifically for XRP, regulatory clarity, etc. Personal factors - Changing risk appetite, personal life changing events (e.g. child being born, education, marriage, buying a house etc.), clearing out debts, etc. Most of these can be planned ahead by several months and there will be plenty of opportunities to get a profitable trade. Could be selling, shorting, market neutral volatility trading, etc. And depending on that, I may sell at $0.5, or $2 or $20 or $50. Or if I can get a reliable way to earn cash flows (e.g. market making for the Liquidity Hub), who knows? Maybe I'll never sell. The same goes for buying. Just because it goes to 0.1, I may not buy. You are assuming that crypto is the only place to make 20x or 100x or that all I do is cross my fingers and hope XRP goes ATH. There are lots of ways to make those gains my friend
  24. I forgot to include one other significant issue. So far, crypto wasn’t subject to wash trading rules in the US. That changes this year. You won’t be able to book losses that easily. If you sell something for a loss, you’ll have to wait 2 months before buying it again. That’s a life time in a 365x24x7 100x leveraged manipulated market. And if wash sale rules don’t apply outside the US, then things are going to get *very* interesting for US speculators.
  25. But you are also assuming a directional move here. That you will eventually make a profit because it’ll go to $2. I get that you are trying to make a specific point and that this is hypothetical, but inherent to that is the risk you are discounting. Anytime I sell, I need it to draw down 50% at least to just break even. And if my personal goal were $2 and I simply sell 10k at $2, I’ll not only make 10x profits, I’ll probably be paying a lot less taxes (max 25%) because by then it would be long term gains, instead of 45% for every trade. Your philosophy does work to an extent in well regulated market. And it is absolutely the right thing to do to take profits. But in an irrational market with no signal and 100% manipulation, it only works until it doesn’t. And I think this is the big difference in how you and I approach crypto. I made it clear that I want to own XRP. I know that’s a mindset that’s different but I just don’t trade. You must have seen my post on possible buy levels at 0.72, 0.61, 0.45 etc. So it’s not a matter of not understanding buying and selling opportunities. And I’ve made my share of profits and added to my stash over the years. I bought a sizeable amount of ETH at $7 and BTC at $623 But investment approach must change as new information comes to fore. And I now have a significant exposure to XRP. May be I was too early to exit BTC and ETH but time will tell. I’m happy with my decisions. I have a busy day job that pays me quite well. I invest in assets that are undervalued, has excellent management and fundamentals. In fact XRP is a big outlier in my philosophy because it doesn’t have any inherent cash flows. But these are early days and I am patient. As another example of my investments - I’ve mentioned it before somewhere in here, but I also have a small exposure to TZEROP. I’m pretty sure no one here has invested in it. But TZEROP has one goal - same day securities settlement instead of T+2 (hence T “Zero”). Also excellent management and a good use case. And it pays dividends. When price is pure manipulation, thinking 50% discount is “cheap” is dangerous. No such thing as “cheap” in crypto. Not until there are sensible regulations. But that day will come.
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