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Everything posted by Ripley

  1. Agreed from a valuation perspective. Especially XRP holders, in terms of zero risk. Of course you might count investing in XRP itself as sufficient risk 😆 We’re probably splitting hairs but ultimately I don’t like consensus mechanisms where concentration = centralisation because ultimately that’s decentralisation in name only (DINO, trademark) 🙂 It’s a big reason why I don’t hold any PoW or PoS tokens. I’d much rather just invest into securities. I own a part of the company that way.
  2. That’s not how proof of stake works though. Concentration of assets = concentration of consensus. With PoW, it’s a bit indirect - concentration of money = control of hash/mining power = concentration of consensus. It’s also why XRP was misunderstood. Everyone assumed that because Ripple has a lot of XRP, they controlled the consensus. Because that was PoW and PoS was where everyone was coming from. P.S. What I meant was, there is no way for PoS to be truly distributed. Early investors are always at an advantage with consensus power.
  3. It’s more analogous to what Chainlink is to Ethereum, except that it’s built into the primary platform isn’t it ? ADA (or any other proof of stake) rewards system is crucial to consensus on those systems. This difference is critical because ultimately proof of stake networks help their early investors maintain their consensus power by raising more funds from newer investors and using inflation. While I do not agree with the assessment, the nature of this mechanism is why the SEC claims that PoS are a Ponzi scheme/possibly a securities offering. With FTSO, it’s simply a reward for a utility. The reward doesn’t give you additional consensus power. You’re free to give your own price feeds and earn your own rewards. So when you’re delegating votes, you’re really paying an existing FTSO to submit feeds on your behalf.
  4. So, what would happen if Bitrue runs an FTSO? Will folks really withdraw / sell ? How many "sales" we see on Bitrue are really about moving them to a wallet so add to the FTSO?
  5. I think we will see a bit of FLRIOU -> SGB until Flare launches and then SGB -> FLR once Flare launches, on all exchanges that support trading of SGB and FLR (e.g. Bitrue, may be Poloniex) That said, I'm very unconcerned about the availability of trading pairs for SGB and FLR on exchanges because Flare/Songbird itself is effectively a cross-platform DEX, especially once Flare Finance comes online. I think it's going to be difficult to figure out how the prices might go because this feels like a very different setup than the usual network launches.
  6. That was my thinking too. I think we will see some wealth shift to SGB from FLR on Bitrue.
  7. We are quite early in the crypto journey, use cases, and possibilities. I agree. However, a vast majority of tokens aren’t really necessary or don’t being much to the table. Those are the 90-95% I’m referring to. The current set. An idea sounding great on paper isn’t very important. People need to use it. Like use it, use it. Not just speculate on it or rotate it among crypto derivatives in the name of “yield” (which usually but not always is distribution/inflation, masked as “yield”). Tokenisation, payments, true decentralised lending, DEXes, securities offerings, democratisation of access to global markets, trustless KYC/AML, CBDCs - there are plenty of use cases, and plenty of products promising that they can deliver. Most will fail or have already failed but don’t know yet. That doesn’t mean that a small number of tokens will somehow serve all the use-cases. Instead, there will be a “refactor”. Think of the hundreds and thousands of dotcoms in the 1999-2000 bubble. A few survived, even fewer thrived, and the rest died a swift death. A brand new world was then made possible on the shoulders of those who thrived. The current “cycle” of crypto is about 5 years old (with the advent of Ethereum and the relative mainstream exposure) to 10 years old (Bitcoin/XRP). Hype is at its peak. Powered by fake leverage and companies like FTX, Ethereum, Cardano, Binance explicitly trying to skirt regulations. Who can blame them ? I have nothing against Cardano or Ethereum the technologies but it’s a joke that there are videos of them claiming to take steps to avoid US regulation with loopholes and they still get to operate in the US while companies like Coinbase, BlockFi, Celsius, Ripple get sued. There will be a valuation reset and the next cycle (say another 5-10 years) will begin in earnest. Regulation will play its part.
  8. It’s times like this that people will look back and wish they bought more XRP at this price. The flywheel has started to turn. Also, it’s soon time for about 90-95% of tokens to die a quick death. Be careful with your money folks. Please get out of leveraged trades. Potentially away from all but the well established exchanges too.
  9. I expect Flare to be valued higher than *today’s XRP price* once F-Asset system is in full swing. But XRP is going to go up quite a bit too. And here’s the reason why I’m leaning towards that hypothesis - Just mining F-Assets is going to give “rewards” in Spark, which can then be delegated for compounding “rewards”. The initial F-Asset agent and probably the largest is Flare itself. And I think (guess) that they are not going to be selling off those XRP that they get custody of when people start wrapping because they would want to be conservative and not give any chance for a liquidation event. They are also the only ones to have the collateral necessary to support such large scale wrapping initially. I’m hoping/expecting that this will result in a noticeable drop in XRP liquidity. If XRP price goes up as a result, FLR price goes up too. While this is true for all supported assets, the relation is much stronger with XRP because of the 1:1 airdrop. And if FLR goes up, that pulls in more speculative action l, which increases rewards and so on… I think this will take a few months to play out but I’m looking forward to see if I’m right on this.
  10. Yep, I’m quite surprised at that price, even if it causes a dump right away. I was on the “nearly worthless initially” bandwagon. If Songbird does anything other than massive dumps until Flare does, that hypes up Flare that much more IMO.
  11. Looks like the launch price on Bitrue is $0.05. Looking forward to seeing the price action. I still see about 750/800M SGB delegated on the FTSO and I don’t think any significant sales are coming from that. I still think that once the S-Asset system is turned on, it will start to prop up the price somewhat, even though people will be reluctant to wrap too many tokens given that it is a canary network. I’m sure that some of the FTSO teams are happy that they have a chance to tune their code on Songbird before Mainnet launch.
  12. I think the fact that the FTSO system has a utility (accurate price feeds) and that the reward system is completely decentralised might make it not a security. I could be wrong. I do trust that Flare did extensive legal analysis to be careful there, so I’m relying on that a bit. An individual FTSO attracting votes through gifts may have been okay I think but NFTs in the current market could be construed as securities. Again, I could be wrong but this whole tier based system to get more NFTs felt a bit off to me. Hope they don’t get into trouble. Flare Finance is a bit more tricky. It has to be fully and completely decentralised for it to be okay. For example, Bitcoin is safe presumably because the distribution is decentralised. Flare Finance is hard to figure out because it has so many products. Some may be ok. Probity/Trustline is easier. Poor Matt Rosendin abandoned Trustline lending for now, because it’s their (closed source) app and that makes providing lending on Trustline a security. But Probity is purely open source and decentralised. Matt and his cofounder don’t make a dime out of it, so it’s safe to generate and farm a yield there + lend your assets.
  13. No offence taken. We’re just having a conversation and I think it’s important to be careful here. See the screenshot below. That’s an investment contract IMO. The current or future value of the NFT is immaterial. It only determines how much fines have to be paid. And why are they offering an NFT instead of a t-shirt or a mug ? Because the current market circumstances are such that people expect NFTs to go up in value. And that’s the difference. If they just did mugs, they would simply register them as gifts and pay taxes on them. Or write it off as marketing expenses. Remember how hard Ripple had to fight the objective vs subjective interpretation. I wish you were right.
  14. You are not participating in a common enterprise to speculatively trade pot plants. It’s just a nice thing. And the supermarket is just treating it as a loss leader to attract more customers. But here, you’re getting an NFT that you are agreeing to accept with an intent that it will grow in value. Why would anyone care about an NFT otherwise. It has no other utility. Its value is zero today. And it doesn’t cost the FTSO anything to generate it. And in return, they are getting more fees. That’s a scheme. I agree. This is an example of “road to hell paved with best intentions”.
  15. It gets complicated. The easy answer is that those who are offering them are doing something illegal. Where it gets complicated is that once it is offered illegally, that illegality may not stop at the first sale. In fact that is what the SEC alleged - that we are all participants of illegal offerings of XRP. This NFT airdrop is a clear cut case of an investment contract offer (delegate your votes to us and we will give you an NFT as an additional reward). The SEC is alleging that the current value of NFT (zero) at the time of sale (right now) isn’t important. They can come at us after 15 years if the NFT is worth a million, and sue us. And everyone that NFT goes through. After all, that’s what they did with Ripple. At least XRP isn’t a security by Howey, and at best it is a grey area. This NFT is a much more clear cut example.
  16. I saw an offer from one of the FTSOs about an NFT drop. It certainly looks tempting but it could be considered a securities offering in the US. We’ve entered a phase in crypto where simply “apeing” isn’t enough. Investors need to be a bit more careful about obligations and regulations.
  17. They are reducing maximum voting power per FTSO further from 10% to 5% (of WSGB staked), per Hugo, to avoid concentration.
  18. Hmm. Yeah official documentation is lacking but I’m sure they’ll do it before the Flare launch. Developers hate documentation and push it to the absolute end 🙂
  19. FTSO AU says delegation is limited to three FTSOs per wallet (https://www.ftso.com.au/faqs.html) so it's probably BiFrost specific.
  20. I assumed that it was BiFrost's limitation to support delegation to only two at a time. I didn't realize it was a hard limit. I vaguely remember reading about costs of delegating to more than two being described in the Telegram channel. The information around claim cadence etc. - I assumed that's also wallet specific or that at a minimum, wallets will make it easy to automate that process. First I heard of a reward epoch was on Twitter - one of the FTSO accounts mentioned that today (Thursday) had an epoch. I assumed that this is when the next week's inflation pool will be calculated. Votes being capped at 10% of the supply is news to me and feels like it's a very important news. Ultimately, I suspect there is no official documentation on this. My expectation is that FTSOs will provide this documentation.
  21. If that happens, inflation is effectively much higher (333%). My expectation on how this works is this - In your example, if there are 450M delegates votes, they would get 45M SGB distributed. The circulating supply isn’t actually 15B because about 30% belongs to the foundation etc. In any case, take a look at https://flaremetrics.io too. It says the inflation pool is 19.7M. Not sure how that number is calculated but that’s the pool right now.
  22. No one needs Ripple/XRPLF’s permission to run XRPL. But Ripple is likely providing additional monetary and fiscal policy management tools for those issuing CBDCs. Also remember, when a country’s sovereign currency is running on a blockchain, it better not have a single failure from a liveliness perspective. Zero tolerance. There must be a lot more sophisticated stuff happening in the background.
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