As a local and also someone that speaks both English and Japanese its been quite a busy few weeks in the Japan Crypto space. Interestingly most major news and media coverage is coming out more from overseas channels instead of the local media and press. Many factors are tied into the passive outlook by the general public regarding Cryptocurrencies but the biggest reason yet to see a major fanfare is due to our culture of resisting Risk. Which currently is the general viewpoint for most people here. Myself and my friends all have had international upbringings hence the capability to assess between risk and opportunity.
Would be happy to share any local details we are getting here on coverage on Crypto and Xrp whenever I get a chance!
** Disclaimer 01 : This is my personal opinion only
** Disclaimer 02 : This is NOT Trading advice, if you use, at your own risk. I myself don't trade regularly, and this is part my new market learning experience
2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 20th, 2017: The Slow up-trend mentioned elaborately in yesterday's report has now begun and is in progress. It is important to note that we are already in the wave 4 territory and these patterns mark wave 4 preliminary activity.
2.45 PM NY Time, EDT, May 20th, 2017:As such, as today is largely trend continuation, there are not many updates. This up trend is expected to continue all the way till 38/39 cents range, where I expect the trend to be challenged for good.
Probabilities (as per current conditions)
>> There is a 65% probability that the up-trend will stabilize and continue to its mentioned range of 39 cents.
>> There is a 35% probability that XRP will drop back to find solid support at 28 cents.
Under current circumstances and market sentiments, I am not able to see XRP dropping below 28 cents.
An important observation
As mentioned yesterday, the relative size of other traditional markets are manifold times larger then the crypto space. As the crypto space gets more mainstream, even small percents of money moving into the space, can lead to massive appreciation of prices. This is especially true for assets like XRP that have very strong fundamentals and a clear global scale use-case.
Hence, I expect massive appreciation of assets in general, and XRP in particular in coming months, which makes provision for many wave jumps and sudden price swings.
But strategic investors in a way reap the benefits without having to worry too much. However, those who are trading, be very careful as the probability that you will be out of position and be left behind is very high. There are many good chances that you will think of timing the market, get out of position for a better entry and will never be able to get back.
In my personal opinion, at this point 'at the least' a mid term 3 to 4 months hold is highly recommended even for swing and daily traders.
Also to offer general help, I will be providing some general 'relative evaluation' for various traditional markets like stocks, bonds, bullion, real estate etc and also projecting the 'minimum' amount of money that we can expect to move into crypto space in coming months. this should be very helpful and interesting, so definitely look forward.
Also, XRP internal community that I am very much part of, is dense with rumors of a major breaking news next week .Please note the above analysis is based on current market conditions, momentum, sentiment and mathematics.
Any major good news about partnerships etc breaking next week, can throw cold water on my analysis for good. I would be one of the most happy persons were that to happen and I expect it will. Just something to keep back of your mind.
Some new learning
I am currently amazed to discover that regional politics is very much part of crypto space as well. Bitcoin mining seems to have polarized largely in China, while XRP seems to have its major supporters in Japan, US, India, UAE, Europe and UK. Korea is slightly diverting towards XRP, but has significant interests in BTC as well. The markets are turning and it has been very interesting to watch regions take sides in accordance with their existing political power structures.
I wish all of you, wisdom and the very best your respective fate's have to offer.