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Everything posted by Troote

  1. You probably describe the only case I can trust, but to be honest that's not really DeFi. I can lend USD on an exchange such as FTX without requiring any crypto of any sort. Now read the gobbledygook here: https://docs.convexfinance.com/convexfinance and tell me in 50 words or less where the money comes from so as to sustain 50%+ APY? Hint: don't waste your time, I have massive trust issues when it comes to crypto anyway.
  2. Actually I do (to a degree)! The key question for me is: "where does the money come from, how are these returns possible?". In some cases, these returns can be explained - and yeah, there are some good deals. Most of the time though, these kind of returns have no transparent, logical explanation. Which, to me, implies some sort of fraud/scam/money laundering/ponzi/you name it. Like you buy a random token, you "stake" it, and someone "magically" gives you 20% APY? Yeah... right...
  3. See, I don't think the fundamentals of DeFi, NFTs or Metaverse matter one iota. To me it sounds like propaganda, a lie that people are being fed. Second Life is 20 years old, yet Metaverse will change the world? Nah. What drives this market is hype and viral social media. All the exchanges (Binance, FTX, Coinbase) are nothing more than casinos. Literally casinos. They suck people in and collect fees, their ultimate goal is to liquidate people. I believe they are very active creating positioning statements/narratives by working with actors in the space. When NFTs are no longer cool, they'll find something else. Guaranteed. And whoever comes up with the cool story will win big. Like the folks who created Solana, Punks or whatever else. Hopefully Flare. ;D
  4. Thanks @Julian_Williams. But just to be clear, all I was saying at the time was that there had been parabolic runs after BTC topped, akin to 2017, and that these parabolic runs happened in novel areas of the crypto market and not the "old-school altcoins" like XRP. I was arguing with people saying that "the crypto market can't have topped because there had been no alt season". Well, there had been one, albeit of a different kind which might have gone unnoticed to some. That didn't (and still doesn't) imply that "old-school altcoins" like XRP will not have such a run in the foreseeable future. I don't know that is true. I am no psychic. Admittedly, I am very sceptical.
  5. Because he's not. You don't like him, fine, your choice. But don't project your own feeling onto others. I think a lot of resentment towards him comes from the language barrier. Just because people are not bilingual and don't pick the most suitable word all the time doesn't mean their ideas are wrong. It just requires an extra effort to understand. It's called listening, you should try it.
  6. Actually @xrp-nuke is right, your maths are completely off. You conflate "balance" and "profit". Scenario 1: Not trading (buying at $0.2 and selling at $2). 1. Initial Acquisition (10,000 XRP @ 0.2 USD): Balance: 0 USD, 10,000 XRP; Portfolio value: 2,000 USD 2. Disposal at 2 USD: Balance: 20,000 USD, 0 XRP ; Portfolio value: 20,000 USD; Profits: 18,000 ; Tax Liability (42%): 7,560 USD. That leaves you with: Gross: 20,000 USD ; Cumulative Tax Liability: 7,560 ; Net Worth: 12,440 USD. Scenario 2: Trading and putting the taxman's money aside immediately (not what I would do unless we are close to the end of a fiscal year, but that's how you approach it so fine). 1. Initial Acquisition (10,000 XRP @ 0.2 USD): Balance: 0 USD, 10,000 XRP ; Portfolio value 2,000 USD. 2. Disposal at 1.4 USD: Balance: 14,000 USD, 0 XRP; Portfolio value: 14,000 USD; Profits: 12,000 USD; Tax Liability: 5,040 USD ; Net worth: 14,000 - 5,040 = 8,960 USD. 3. Acquisition at 1 USD: Balance: 5,040 USD, 8,960 XRP ; Portfolio value: 14,000 USD 4. Disposal at 2 USD: Balance: 22,960 USD (= 5,040 + 2 × 8,960), 0 XRP ; Portfolio value: 22,960 USD; Profits: 8,960 USD ; Tax Liability: 3,763.20 USD. That leaves you with: Gross: 22,960 USD ; Cumulative Tax Liability: 8,803.20 USD ; Net Worth: 14,156.80 USD. Scenario 3: Trading and using the taxman's money as leverage until taxman needs to be payed. 1. Initial Acquisition (10,000 XRP @ 0.2 USD): Balance: 0 USD, 10,000 XRP 2. Disposal at 1.4 USD: Balance: 14,000 USD, 0 XRP; Portfolio value: 14,000 USD; Profits: 12,000 USD; Tax Liability: 5,040 USD. 3. Acquisition at 1 USD: Balance: 0 USD, 14,000 XRP 4. Disposal at 2 USD: Balance: 28,000 USD, 0 XRP ; Portfolio value: 28,000 USD; Profits: 14,000 ; Tax Liability: 5,880 USD. That leaves you with: Gross: 28,000 USD ; Cumulative Tax Liability: 10,920 ; Net Worth: 17,080 USD. In these scenarios, you are better off trading regardless of taxes. Even if in scenario 2 you don't buy back the full initial stack of 10,000 XRP (which seems to be your primary worry), you make more money that way. Taxes become trickier if you want to change a tax regime (e.g. move from short-term capital gain taxes to long-term capital gain taxes). For instance, if scenario 1 is taxed at 20% (because you held for more than 12 months) and scenario 2 and 3 are taxed at 42% (because you traded during the year), then it makes a difference although scenario 3 will still leave you better off. That is country-specific though, there is no such thing as a "short-term vs long-term CGT" in the UK for instance. Big issues and horror stories arise if you are not 100% clear how much money you owe to the taxman and by when. For instance, you make profit in 2021, owe the taxman a large sum of money in 2022, but you lose it in 2022 before paying him. Then you're in big trouble.
  7. Depends on countries and your rates are stupid high. In the US, even if you earn more than 500k, the tax rate is 37%, it seems. Yes, every winning trade is a taxable event in most places, but you need to pay the taxman once a year, not after every trade. So instead of taking that money out, re-invest the taxman's money and the profits compound. It's just a form of leverage. You pay taxes on the total profits (minus losses) you booked by the end of the fiscal year. But hey - talk to your accountant. I for sure delegate this sort of stuff to mine and he optimizes things for me.
  8. You should not advocate for illegal stuff. Evading tax is just wrong, and going willy-nilly will bite you in the bum. Penalties can be huge. If you end up making big money on crypto, the probability that HMRC will investigate you is rather high. There are painless ways of calculating taxes accurately. Look into Accointing.com for instance. Connect your wallets/account to this and it will generate a clean report with all transactions. You can use that report yourself if you do a self-assessment or send it off to your accountant who will deal with the headache. That's what I do. Obviously you do you, but doing things accurately is not all that hard nowadays, even with thousands of small transactions, and it will allow you to sleep peacefully at night. PS: in traditional finance, "normal" transactions/investment vehicles are absurdly complex and are being audited. Complying with regulations costs banks hundreds of millions every year. I think it's a fallacy to believe that crypto will get a free "get out of jail card". The environment is lax today because crypto is so new, but that will eventually stop.
  9. The thing is - XRP and BTC/ETH are inseparable 95% of the time. Altcoins are just different investment vehicles to trade volatility. That is something you can actually prove mathematically. A rising tide lifts all boats, and the opposite is true as well. You will be right sometime, like when the SEC lawsuit hit and XRP tanked alone like a boss. But in the meantime, you have been and will continue to be quite wrong. And @xrp-nukewill continue to be right. The "problem" is with you, as it is you who are trying to establish exceptional circumstances as the general rule. You'll have to cope with that.
  10. You mean because of this? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-21/microstrategy-plummets-as-sec-rejects-its-bitcoin-accounting
  11. My biggest pleasure right now is to watch all these so-called social media gurus on Twitter that I denounced over the last months. Their feeds are hilarious. I am probably going to hell for enjoying their humiliation so much.
  12. Meh, losing interest to be honest. No momentum. The opportunities for an easy 3x or 5x like last year are kinda gone for the time being imho. Not much point risking money.
  13. That's a very religious belief you hold here, my friend. I hope you are right, for your own sake.
  14. You think?! I was waiting for BTC to retest the bottom of the wick on December 4th. It finally happened. Similarly, I still expect XRP to revisit $0.6, and honestly I am surprised XRP did so well (everything considered). What worries me is that BTC and especially ETH went lower than the Dec 4th wick. If this is indeed a lower low (it looks like it is), things can definitely get very ugly. In any case, I don't understand people who are mega-bullish, even if BTC/ETH retest their ATH, I struggle to see how they can go beyond that, when the price is struggling to hold here.
  15. Spoofy rules the world. Long live Spoofy! The dashboards look nice, will play with it.
  16. Meh. I don't think things will be volatile, everyone is on holidays. Nobody cares or is trading at the moment, apart from gambling addicts. Things will only get lively if a whale decides to start a fun algo during the new year break to create some chaos. What data are you looking at?
  17. Looks like the inverse chart of the S&P500.
  18. People seem to forget that BTC has been in a bull run for more than 3 years now. If you look at the chart, the lowest price point since the 2017 ATH in this cycle was sometime around December 16th 2018. If the bull run is really over and it's downhill from here, how low do you think XRP can go?
  19. I hope for you lot that XRP does not exhibit an SGB-type behaviour after the ExFi airdrop...
  20. Yes. The people who got rich in previous cycles have invested a huge portion of their earnings in marketing. And did a fantastic job at that too.
  21. The market is a bubble. The characteristic of this cycle (compared to 2017) is that it is fed by easily accessed derivatives and massive, unregulated loans. Not real, actual money. Hence the amplitude we are seeing and the ludicrous price levels we have reached. The massive moves up or down happen when people on leverage are liquidated because the price moves against them. If lots are people are short, betting on 10x or 20x leverage, for $1 up they lose $10 or $20. When their losses are so catastrophic that they can't pay their loans back, exchanges close their positions and take all the money. These liquidation events translate into violent price moves. That is what happened this spring and again 2 weeks ago. Liquidation events happen both ways, in downtrend or uptrend (price direction does not matter). What is happening now is that the amount of borrowed money is back to the same level it was just a few weeks ago. Difference is that it didn't pump the price. The expectation is that when people borrow a lot of money to buy or sell, the price moves alongside that buy/sell pressure. It hasn't over the last 2 weeks, despite the huge loans (that's a fact, one's interpretation of that fact might vary). The scene is set for another liquidation event, again. These loans will get liquidated. Volatility is going to increase dramatically soon, liquidity will dry up and we'll have another 20% or 30% move up or down. Basically we are looking at a rocket ship which is filling up with liquid hydrogen like never before, wondering why the rocket ship is not moving at all and not knowing if it will lift off or explode on the launchpad. What we do know is that considering the amount of fuel in it, something big is bound to happen. One way of rephrasing this (which is not really accurate but illustrates my point) is to see OI as a proxy for risk. People may think that because we are in a dip, the risk is lower than it was when BTC was at its ATH a few weeks ago. What I am saying is that the amount of risk here and now is as high as it was when BTC was $20k more expensive. And that this level of risk is rising extremely fast as days go by. The only safe trade I see right now is to open a delta neutral position and bet on increased volatility, because that's certainly coming based on the indicators I look at. I would not open a directional trade given the current setup. Many people are going to lose very big very soon. Again.
  22. Open interest on BTC is growing quickly, the quickest it ever has in history. Basically people are opening longs on leverage at the speed of light and the price is hardly moving. The scene is being set for another liquidation event... I might miss out on a pump but I am not playing this.
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