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Everything posted by Troote

  1. I never said anything of the sort. Good luck sifting through my comments to quote me saying something like that. Indeed, came in to see how everyone is doing. And not disappointed by the comments I had missed, I am kind of honored to live in some people's heads... Anyway. Be safe out there.
  2. How is the line doing? Sorry, too easy. ;P
  3. It seems clear to me that you just don't know what you don't know. I am out of here, way to much XRP Chat for at least one month again. Good luck.
  4. I am not talking about the orderbook (it is meaningless, it gets spoofed all the time as you rightly point out) but the orderflow. You have the history but it is a real time data feed.
  5. Ok. Then explain to me, like a 2 years old, why such a line drawn on a graph has any significance in the future price action of a security. If you can *prove it scientifically*, then I'll bow to you. If not, you are believing in something you cannot prove, which to me is the definition of divination. Just like moon phases and star alignments determine a person's character at birth.
  6. With caveats. Yes, when many people use them, lots of people follow. More importantly, my grief with them is you can move them wherever and however you want to make them "true". For instance: which candle will a trend line start from? From the wick or the body (or both on Plikk's chart)? What candle will you use for the fib retracement start/end? More often than not, if the fib/trendline does not work, you can just move it ever so slightly to make it work, until it doesn't work at all. Same with Elliott Waves. Oh the pattern is broken? Just rename your 1-2-3-4-5 and a-b-c until the theoretical pattern matches the chart. You can't "change your mind" about data. At 10:30 this morning there was a 59M negative delta on Bitmex that was absorbed exactly at the $47,191 point of control, which is henceforth a significant daily support on that exchange. Was a great place to open an intraday long. Disagree with me? Talk to Bitmex support and tell them their data feed is wrong. See the difference? Divination vs data.
  7. It is kind of funny (sad really) how you resort to ad hominem attacks and inventing my mindset to fit your narrative about me instead of discussing the point. The point is that trend lines are pattern recognition drawings and fibs are arbitrary numbers, both of them akin to divination. And that there are raw indicators which come straight from exchanges data feeds that would help you nail your support and resistance levels a lot more accurately. But hey, you do you. I don't know why I even bother.
  8. Trendlines and fibs are made up lines and numbers. I am talking about actual volume and point of controls which are derived from the order book. Big difference.
  9. Level has already been lost, yesterday's daily close was below 47900 and we then did bearish retest of the 48400 support. It is a clean setup for a swing short with a 44k target.
  10. Don't. I don't have the slightest clue what the market will do. The S&P500 and housing markets have been exhausted for a decade, that doesn't stop them from defying gravity... (for now)
  11. It does look exhausted to me. FWIW the #1 trader on FTX has sold 2/3 of his BTC and ETH at 50k 2h before today's small dump and also said he will sell the rest at $54k if it gets there. What BTC is printing looks like the same topping pattern it printed 3 months ago at 60k. If this last month move was an exit pump just before a full fledged bear market, this is the kind of levels where it would happen. I feel like a broken record, but be careful guys.
  12. I disagree with many things you say, but I will not insist and leave it at that.
  13. All well and good, but the assumptions are wrong, for 3 reasons. 1. You don't take profits all the time. If you have a day job, you don't need the cash. You grow your account and compound interests. You only cash out when you want to pay yourself, and that doesn't have to be 25% of your account. Money is leverage. 2. When you trade, you trade both ways. Long and short. So no, if you long from $1 to $2 and then short from $2 to $1.75, you made more profits than someone who just held. And you don't need "XRP to go back down to $1.5" to break even. 3. What you pay to the tax man is the exact same if you trade from $1 to $1.5 and then again $1.5 to $2 than if you hold from $1 to $2. You just have to maintain the books and pay the tax man more often. Of course there is the issue of different tax rates if you hold for more than 1y, but that doesn't apply in my country (lucky me). Of course trades can go wrong but that's why risk management is so important. Even if your success rate is a measly 50%, because you don't allow losses and you let profits ride, overall you make money. This is why risk management is much MUCH more important than making the right directional calls. And incidentally, holding literally means 0 risk management.
  14. LOL Yes you did anger me at some point. Try again. Peace!
  15. Happy for your gains! Stupid question. If you plan to exit within 3-4 months, what signal(s) are you waiting for? Why don't you "reverse DCA" and sell a bit every week until you have derisked to your desired target?
  16. It is not so much about your portfolio size but your risk profile and how many simultaneous trades you plan to enter. How much money are you willing to lose in a single trade? 1% of your account? 3%? 5%? Define that figure, that is your risk, regardless of whether your account starts with $10,000 or $1,000,000. Then look for trades with decent risk/reward ratio. For instance, you think the price will go up by 20% and you decide to get out of the trade and cut your losses if the price goes down 5%. That is a R/R of 4:1, which is good. Now if your risk tolerance per trade is 1% of a $10,000 account, you calculate your position to lose only $100 if things go wrong for you. This means you can enter a position sized X where at X * 5% = 100, so that's a $2000 bet or 20% of your account. You can therefore win $400 or lose $100. You can have 5 simultaneous trades at 1 point in time, so with 5 trades and the same R/R profile, that would be $2000 win vs $500 loss. Would that bet and risk satisfy you? If yes, does the max number of simultaneous satisfy you? Use that kind of basic maths to adjust your risk and balance your account size. [Note that I omit using leverage, it changes the maths but the principles are the same] From there, the question is how comfortable you are with losses. Approach it like this and you'll be fine. Be careful about the "hodl" and "diamond hands" mentality: with that state of mind, there is no safety net and your risk exposure is quite literally 100% of your entire account. I strongly advise against it. That is - unless you fully accept that you can lose it all. As far as I am concerned, I am done investing in crypto without stop loss and rigourous risk management, I have lost too much unrealized profits by not having any. There is no point witnessing an 8x increase on your portfolio if you don't sell and see it melt to only 3x or 4x because you "believed" it would go higher. If we are talking about $100, who cares, but when we start going into 6 figures and above, trust me it hurts. A lot. I am not over it yet. Nobody knows what the market will do. We may well have seen the peak already and just be in an exit pump right now, at the brink of impending doom and a massive crash. You should run away from anybody who tells you this is not a very real and likely possibility. I quite literally block this kind of people now, because I don't want to read their garbage. They may be right, but they may be very wrong, and spreading that "bull vs bear" mentality is plain toxic and drags the entire community into madness. TL/DR: Don't be a pig (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pig.asp) like I was and like pretty much everyone here still is. Anyway, do the above and it becomes actually quite hard to lose money unless you get complacent and stop being rigourous.
  17. The trend is your friend. It's risky to fade and go short when there is so much momentum. I do agree that BTC stagnating and alts going parabolic has an 2018 aftertaste to it.
  18. Even so, I have grown to find being a bear is a hell of a lot funnier than being a bull. The reaction it triggers is hilarious.
  19. Next step will be for them to say that we were wrong all along and nothing ever happened.
  20. This. This was hyped years ago and even came with a small pump. Pepperidge farm remembers. Ripple may be using AWS for a gazillion of reasons, it does not mean Amazon uses Ripple in any way.
  21. I do agree with you, based on what I see. Binance is publicly closing most of their activities in many jurisdictions in the UK and the EU and we are only at the beginning of what seems to be a major action against crypto. I expect volume to collapse soon once the penny drops and people realize they are not legally allowed to trade the way they have been (using leverage, no AML/KYC, etc.). And if they do it anyway, they won't be allowed to get their money back and/or will feel the full force of the taxman. Just yesterday I argued on Twitter with a retail guy in the UK using leverage because he didn't believe me he needed to be certified by the FCA and be subject to a business tax regime in order to enter such trades. But I am not an insider by any mean. Are you privvy to any particular information to be as assertive as you are, or are you simply connecting the dots like I do?
  22. It is purely down to personality and character. Many wealthy people are rather clever, understand lifestyle creep and very actively fight it.
  23. It's not. https://twitter.com/attorneyjeremy1/status/1421470726654148615?s=20
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