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superavd88

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  1. I can honestly tell you that all the thoughts expressed on my post came from my head alone on real concerns that I came up with without having read about them before. I had to google what Tinyaccount meant by FUD as I wasn’t aware of that term. I definitely felt the tension on his or her response and the fact that you feel my intentions could be malicious proves my point exactly about my concerns on what I’ve seen community wise. If I question things is due to the fact that I have my own money on the line, I think it’s way more harmful to constantly promote fluff and blindly believe all the hype without actually analyzing all aspects of your investments. It baffles me to see how many people comment on how they are putting in more than they can afford to lose into XRP. I have around 10% of my investment money on XRP and wouldn’t feel comfortable having more than 20 - 25% tied up to it. But hey, each person knows how they want to handle their finances and that is none of my business. The only thing is, it actually makes me feel uneasy when I see some people acting as if they were part of a cult or extremely defensive “Oh you are bringing up negative points about XRP? We already shot that plane down in the past and shame on you for bringing it up again!”. Anyways.... good content on your post, what I’m trying to figure out for myself is to decide what value I should give XRP personally to make better decisions on how to handle my money. The only thing I was looking for is unbiased discussion. One point - people forget that XRP got to $3 dlls after a period of hype where even my grandmother was talking about bitcoin; for that kind of run to repeat itself is unlikely. Plus, even if it only reaches $1 buck per XRP, that’s still around a 350% gain as of today which would still be a pretty damn good return; what sounds insane to me is expectations of 20,000%+ returns. I was working on a spreadsheet of what my plan will look like - how much I’ll administer conservatively, how much I’ll risk, and how much I’ll keep long term. I’ll share that file once I complete it.
  2. I think it’s irrational to believe that every single store of value will flow through XRP. Having a decent understanding of what something is worth gives you a gauge of an equilibrium range. Think of it this way, would you buy a bag of chips at $1, $3, $5 $20, $50, $100? If you have unrealistic expectations on what your bag of chips is worth you will probably miss out on higher returns when the prices normalize after a breakout. In a bubble you do not want to be the person left holding that bag. Charts are good tools that reflect market sentiment, but knowing the value of something is the best piece of information you can have.
  3. I have to say....I'm pretty impressed with this forum. Thank you all for your responses. ObeyTheWaffleHouse - pretty good references, I'm on page 3 of the Hi! I'm Bob thread and I can already see a huge difference in content to what I had seen in the past. There are a lot of details I don't have knowledge on and even though it has never been my intention to go deep into this rabbit hole, this kind of response is pretty encouraging. I'll be browsing through these threads and see what I can pick up and comment now and again. I love to speak my mind and question arguments, you learn more from being wrong than from being right so please Julian_Williams by all means, let me have it! "Invert, always invert" - Jacobi
  4. I actually have a degree in Economics. That's not my livelihood, I work with data analysis but I'm somewhat versed on Economic principles. Back on 2017 I bought some XRP and was able to sell it almost at the all time high and was able to make around a 500% profit. The only reason I did that was because I was trying to take advantage of the bubble before it exploded and it worked. I didn't know anything about crypto except for the world wide hype at that point in time. This November, the same friend who introduced me to bitcoin (should have bought some back then - around $800 BTC) said I should look into XRP. I think what is happening is revolutionary, but I always approach these kind of opportunities looking for things that could go wrong. The reason I gave the hypothetical scenario (which I did state to be unrealistically perfect and impossible) above about the transaction times was just to give an example that a low price still accommodates a huge amount of demand each day. The link posted above has good points. An increase in demand will definitely affect the price, I agree with that, but not to the extent people are saying it will. I believe there is an overestimation on how much transactions will and can affect price. I do think that the speed of the transactions affect the rate at which the price would move up. If you count on that factor alone it is not enough for the kind of prices people are expecting. The biggest factor that would affect price would be investors (I was referring to institutions as well as individuals) holding XRP and reducing the amount of supply. I did not understand the detailed mechanism part on the article, but that sounded like a perpetual price increase based on transactions argument which didn't make a lot of sense to me. I do believe that the current price is not an accurate representation of the intrinsic value of this asset as I think it does have a lot of potential and hence why I have some money tied up to it. My argument is that maybe less than $3 USD per XRP is more than enough to accommodate the real yearly demand for financial transactions globally. Anything above the utility value of the asset is a bubble and I don't even think it could go nearly as high as some of the valuations I've seen, if it did we could have a pretty scary global recession. Anyways, I appreciate all the comments I believe these discussions are valuable and informative. My only intention is to listen to different opinions an ideas.
  5. I don’t consider myself as devoted to XRP as a lot of people who I’ve seen are. For this reason, I haven’t spent countless hours researching about it and might not have an expert knowledge to answer some of my own concerns. I do see potential in what is happening with our financial system and because of that I do have a couple of thousand dollars invested in XRP. Here are some of my concerns: Part of the XRP community – My only experience so far has been youtube so I'll talk about what I've seen there. I think it’s great that youtubers are posting information of things that are happening with crypto and XRP, I’ve seen several videos that help me go out and read about some of the events mentioned that I wouldn’t have researched on my own; however, a lot of the listeners and followers are incredibly sensible towards any negative comment or mention about XRP which makes the content in YouTube extremely biased. Critical thinking is all about listening to different facts and opinions to create your own view and judgment. I think a lot of people either have more than they should invested in XRP or are obsessed with the economic bubble that happened back in 2017 and are expecting for that to happen again in order to get rich quick. Not hearing about the challenges, pitfalls and shortcomings is not good for making educated decisions; promoting crazy valuations make me lose credibility on what some youtubers are posting. This brings me to my next point: Actual value – I might not know all the technical aspects of what XRP can and cannot do but I know that in any market things usually end up aligning to their intrinsic value (invisible hand). I can see the utility that we can get with quick and inexpensive fiat transfer and conversion however in any practical scenario for the use of XRP I can’t see the value of the coin being greatly affected. This is due to the current supply and the speed of the transactions. My understanding when listening to Brad Garlinghouse talk about volatility is that the value in XRP would be the ability to buy with any fiat currency and sell it within seconds so that your currency maintains the same worth at the end of the transaction without holding XRP a long period of time due to risk of volatility. Based on that assumption let’s say that the whole process takes 20 seconds to complete, let’s suppose that you have accessibility to transact 24/7 and let’s use these variables: 1 XRP = $ 1 USD XRP Supply: 50 Billion This would mean that at that price, XRP would have the potential (In an unrealistic perfect and hypothetical scenario) to transfer $216 trillion dollars in a 24-hour day without affecting demand or supply very much due to the 20 second transaction time. I like to compare this to buying something at the store and returning it before you leave the store; their inventory levels are quickly replenished. Even though this scenario is not possible it still tells me that the price of XRP does not need to be extremely or very high at all to accommodate a ridiculously immense amount of demand. Based on that, the biggest factor that would influence the price would be the supply availability - XRP being tied to either medium- or long-term investors. Another aspect would be to assess the fact that XRP has competition with other crypto such as Stellar Lumens which further increases the supply of coins that are available to cover the financial demand, and this consequently dilutes the prices of both assets. My last concern is this one: Ripple Accountability – To my understanding Ripple does not have any accountability for the price of XRP as they are both separate entities. In my opinion this feels like a company going public to fund their endeavors with the catch that they are not accountable to their shareholders for the value of their stock. This gives Ripple complete freedom to create new technologies separated from XRP without any concern if that negatively impacts the prices as the profit is ultimately theirs. As most everyone who has money tied to this, I want XRP to bloom so that I can profit from my investment. I do have a lot of uncertainty however, and I wish that more of these issues where brought up without any biases or feelings involved to better assess what XRP is worth to me at a personal level (How much of my investment money I want to have tied to this).
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