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PunishmentOfLuxury

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  1. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from GiddyUp in CIMB's SpeedSend runs on Ripple   
    https://ebms.cimb.com/TS_Services/TS_PreviewInBrowser.aspx?TIDStr=kOtKeoGpwq64dGp9hP6V6A==
     
  2. Thanks
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to Silkjaer in a few user reported their gatehub wallet been hacked and XRP sent to r9do2Ar8k64NxgLD6oJoywaxQhUS57Ck8k   
    On June 1 we were made aware of a theft of 201,000 XRP (transaction F6E9E1385E11649A6C2F88723A821AF209B54030886539DCEF9DDD00E6446948) and immediately started investigation. It turned out that the account robbed was managed through Gatehub.net, and that the offending account (r9do2Ar8k64NxgLD6oJoywaxQhUS57Ck8k) had stolen substantial amounts from several other XRP accounts, likely to be or have been managed through Gatehub.net.
    The same day we made contact to Gatehub to make them aware of the potential security breach while continuing our independent investigation and contacting exchanges where the offender appeared to have laundered money.
    On further investigation, we found several other accounts connected to the theft, leading us to 9 primary suspect accounts:
    rU6EsDCiHHYbTtA4uGGo8zaaiRz2sbDBST rN5Gm1FijbTVeYFfpTRfGKfNZQY7hc9TbN rprMix9uYyQng5vgga1Vg8HTeBMCzaeM2i rUvPCdYJMzzGu9AFKrNeKgCTpxrpFc3RHt rJpKe5rbjgzzGJc1wm1xqKj6j4UjBQ6s48 rGSWKo2oiJnJiPEoHvDZTK2XG7RtE62Cbh rpBDxqWArAQTEfPeWwkUvBh1cbc885nirX r9do2Ar8k64NxgLD6oJoywaxQhUS57Ck8k rKZ14F9KT65chQ382M33U41a4eniGMAyfG From analysing the data, we found the first likely victim to be 10,000 XRP (transaction 30FBBD47F6791A00BF0C1DCFF6CBD8AECBF9EF71141544C031B8FAF3EACB4C41) on 2019-05-30 12:25:40 UTC.
    As of writing this report, 2019-06-04 12:30 UTC, we gather that ~21,700,000 XRP has been stolen from 50-60 victims, of which ~12,300,000 have already been laundered through exchanges and mixer services.
    We have while conducting the investigation kept contact with some of the victims, with Gatehub and with the exchanges used for laundering.
     
    Scenarios
    While there is still no conclusive evidence pointing to the centre of the attack, here are scenarios researched in our investigation:
    1. Gatehub account hacks
    From analysing access logs by victims and transactions made on the XRP ledger, it does not appear that any accounts were breached on gatehub.net directly, using client login credentials.
    2. Phishing
    From interviewing victims, it does not appear that any of the victims had been victims of phishing attempts through, e.g. e-mails impersonating Gatehub.net
    3. Repeating nonce
    Since all victim accounts are older than December 2017, and while old accounts are more likely to be vulnerable to bad encryption implementation by transaction signing software, it seems not to be the case. To our knowledge, only a handful of accounts are vulnerable to this attack, none of which is the victims of this case.
    4. Incremental nonces
    While repeating nonces do not seem to be the core of the attack, it is still a possibility that a poorly implemented signing library has used incremental nonces, which makes brute force hacking a possibility. We have not been able to confirm or deny this theory.
    5. RippleTrade migration
    Since all victim accounts are older than December 2017, and many carry a RippleTrade username, bad practice in handling migration of user accounts could be the cause of the account access – however, it does not appear that all accounts are old RippleTrade accounts. Hence this is also unlikely.
    6. Browser client hacking
    While it is possible to retrieve user information by exploiting a vulnerability in the Gatehub.net API, we find it improbable to be the cause of the attacks. The victims are spread globally, and any such attacks would likely occur by sniffing access on a shared WiFi.
    7. Old database leak
    Since Gatehub.com is a hosted wallet provider, they store encrypted private keys. It is possible that an unknown database leak in the past has been exploited and private key brute forced offline until the offender found the funds retrievable sufficient.
     
    Exchanges and platforms used to launder money (not complicit)
    We have identified some of the largest recipients:
    changelly.com: 6,064,900 changenow.io: 2,976,192 kucoin.com:    1,081,500 huobi.com: 930,000 exmo.me: 136,940 hitbtc.com:    115,028 binance.com: 111,000 alfacashier.com: 58,000  
    Overview

    Yellow: Exchanges and accounts used to cash out exchanges
    Blue: Victims
    Red: 9 suspected accounts
    Note: A few victims may have not been channeled through the suspect accounts and have had funds sent directly to exchanges.

    A theft that involves multiple victims needs to be handled via law enforcement in various countries. We strongly advise victims to file a complaint with relevant authorities in their jurisdictions.
    On behalf of XRP Forensics
    https://xrpforensics.org
    (Public members: @alloyxrp, Bithomp, @Silkjaer)
  3. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    I think you can now relax and go back to your happy place. It is clear that ripple had already made their strategy change before I posted this analysis (since that's what I was observing) and the fact that they have responded with their ripple insights article speaks volumes about how they regard their duty "At Ripple, we believe in proactive transparency. We hope others in the crypto ecosystem will follow our lead, and ultimately, that our joint efforts will fuel a growing level of trust, among institutions and consumers alike, and the entire digital asset market will thrive. Until we do this, we cannot expect to see wide-spread adoption of digital assets or blockchain technology."
    They want your trust! Your belief can be unshaken again
  4. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from Finesse in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  5. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from dreventures in Dre Ventures Youtube Channel Closed?   
    Why not ask him?
    https://www.xrpchat.com/profile/7392-dreventures/
  6. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to XRPforLong in Largest Bank of Thailand Hints at Using XRP   
    I think we have proof now. 
     
  7. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  8. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to MikeNard77 in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    The thing is a movement to a wallet doesn't mean its then sold right away, it could be ripple stocking up in their exchange wallet anticipating higher volume coming to make sales. We really dont know, and many times like september 2018, there was outside factors like the swell announcement upcoming that was hinted at, which moved the market dramatically and it likely had nothing to do with the small amount ripple salles compared to overall volume( As well as the fact that they had a huge amount of OTC demand that quarter, so they likely sold much less programtically sas they didn't need to. @BobWay care to voice your opinion on this please?
  9. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    I will try to answer as best I can several questions in the same post. I submitted mine late last night, then went out for the day today and had a lovely surprise when I see that x,y,z and 38 others have reacted to your post ...
    Well, yes. We don't have evidence that FI's are holding xrp. But what is Corda Settler for? And how will market makers rebalance their accounts? I am no expert in corda settler, but my understanding is that two FI's agree on a transaction and one option for settling is to simply transfer xrp from Alice to Bob and then agree that the deal is settled. Nobody is going to seriously considering keeping loads of XRP in the vaults ready for this kind of transaction if they buy it this week and next week it drops by 15%. Even if nobody is using it yet, we want to create the kind of market conditions that makes them think it's a good idea to try it and if XRP is stable over the long term, then they might consider it. If it pumps and dumps every six weeks along with BTC, then it won't even be considered an option. And rebalancing ... the remittance flows to Mexico, India, Philippines, Brazil, and all the new corridors - these create a big imbalance in the exchanges on those accounts, someone on the mexican side has to provide a lot of MXN to buy up the XRP flowing in there, and they then have to offload that XRP somewhere else and get more MXN - who's going to do that? Ripple have given us clues before - traders/businesses on the mexican side who want to make payments back to USA side companies and can save on the bid/ask spread by using the XRP they already have instead of buying it back. What does a massive dump in XRP price do to them - it shafts them big time and leaves them out of pocket. Who benefits from this - not the XRP ecosystem that we want to mature and completely redesign the financial money flow globally. Stable steady prices for XRP benefit the ecosystem. Maybe not us speculators, but who cares about us. Certainly not me.
    I'm not so sure. I think I've made my views clear in the above reply, but ripple is in a rather unique position and I see them more like gardeners trying to encourage the seedlings to grow into healthy strong plants.
    Since it is at .39 as I write this, I'd say that the recent drop in sales might well be to allow the price to rise a little.
    If you have to ask that, then clearly I wasn't being funny enough. Yes. It was a serious joke. The wallets addresses I'm using might be wrong. All I'm tracking is sales from XRP-II to exchanges - I haven't even started on all the other transactions that take place. This is only flow from XRP-II to exchanges where it can be sold - some of it might be sitting there, some of it might for incentivising market makers, some might not be from escrow sales, some might be from escrow, some might be founders xrp being sold, some might be from staff options being liquidated, some might be from early investors who have asked XRP-II to handle sales in a sensible steady flow, some might be from partnerships made years ago with terms and conditions on release. We know NOTHING about what is going on and most of what you read on this forum is speculation and guesswork - Especially the posts of mine where I make feeble attempts to guess what ripple are doing.
    For XRP-II, I'm 10 confident, for the exchanges, maybe an 8-10 (some I've verified, others not). for the other analysis that I haven't posted here yet, less. I have made a start on some xRapid analysis and that is much lower.
    Thank you @iLeeT for your confidence and the support. Watching the XRP-II sales is indeed a good way of gauging conditions and I am also keen to see what happens next. I'd love it if anyone from ripple who might read this were to respond and clarify if they have been trying to back-off or smooth the market. I doubt we'll get a response, but it'd be very nice if they included some small note about that in the Q2 report when it comes out.
    Controlled selling is the phrase I'd use. Dumping implies they don't care about the price. I suspect that they do. How do you get rid a massive warchest of the kind they have. Giving it away, airdrops, lotteries etc are terrible, if everyone received N XRP, it'd be worthless and the price would drop. Selling it the way they do is really the way to do it. People who are prepared to pay for it, buy it. It now has value where it didn't before. We believe that large scale IOV usage will drive the price higher so we're happy to buy in now. Dumping it serves nobody.
    I disagree strongly with that. Re-escrowing is the best thing to do. We want a guarantee that supply will be controlled, if they don't re-escrow then they gradually build up more and more with no rules holding them back from flooding the market. They could have kept everything (like XLM for example) with no guarantees, but they chose to escrow it, very wisely IMHO.
    ^this exactly. This is completely new territory. Only central banks have been here before, controlling the interest rates to regulate flow - interesting that of all the crypto projects, ripple are the ones who actually speak to central banks and participate in IMF meetings, payments initiatives and sit on the panels of many of  the big projects that are happening.
    and this^. Quite right. Sell as much as possible to create the market, but not so much that it tanks the price. I believe they have a plan, it might not be perfect, but I've seen no evidence that anyone on XRPChat has a better plan yet.
    I will continue reading the new posts. Thank you all for taking this thread seriously and not derailing it from the main subject.
     
  10. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to Ripple-Stiltskin in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Yes, this is crypto, the irregulated Wild West where prices can, will and actually are manipulated.  And there lies the reason or possibility for crazy ROI’s. Once it’s cleared, be prepared for annual ROI’s of say 5%.  Nice, but I just got that with LTC in 3 days and today with TRX in 1 day.
    Ripple is a whale when it comes to XRP. Maybe a whale we can trust, maybe not, but nevertheless a powerfull partie for XRP’s future ROI in all aspects. Like it or not.  Is that fair and how it should be? Maybe not.  But ROI’s of 36000% in 1 year ( 2017) aren’t normal either.
    I’ m literally gambling on another booming event , counting on the Wild West once again. 
     
  11. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from cannylad in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  12. Thanks
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from Parabellum in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  13. Thanks
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from MemberBerry in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  14. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from WillGetThere in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  15. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from hallwaymonitor in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  16. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from cryptoxrp in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  17. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury got a reaction from AlvaroXRP in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Many times on this forum I have strenuously defended Ripple, believing that they are not manipulating the price of XRP because David Schwartz said so and I think he's not a liar. However, this data does seem to present evidence that Ripple and/or its programmatic sales agents are indeed manipulating the price. My belief is shaken.
    Whilst, as an OG holder, I am somewhat comforted by the putative existence of a 'Garlinghouse put' (cf the Bernanke put), it denies new investors speculators the chance to get in at low prices. And of course, keeping the price down during crypto bull runs ... well, you can guess what I think about that.
    All too fishy.
  18. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to Tinyaccount in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    @jbjnr I’m delighted and grateful that you do such sterling work in this area.  Thanks so much for generously sharing the results of your work.
    There is a point that concerns me slightly, and another point on which I would like to differ...
    The point that concerns me is that you seem to have some evidence that Ripple is trying to steady the price, or at the least have an input on whether it can climb.  That is at odds with everything they have ever said.  That contradiction is concerning to me because I have always taken them at their word.  I must admit I’m not fully convinced that they are actually trying to influence price, but the fact that I now have seen some actual evidence (as opposed to simple disgruntled investor moaning,) gives me pause.
    The point I think I would like to differ on, (and I’m fully aware you have hard work and actual facts, whereas I just have my own feeble imaginings...     Reminds me of the knife to a gunfight situation... ) is your assertion that:
    And that this is offered as one reason Ripple might be trying to stabilise price.  Perhaps I am naive but I don’t think that is correct.  Firstly because there is no evidence as yet that institutions are accumulating large holdings of XRP.  Perhaps they are..  but apart from R3 and the indirect holdings of SBI I don’t think we as yet know of anything larger than Arrington holding XRP en masse.
    But even assuming some are...  why would they hold?  If for the same reason as us, then the short term fluctuations don’t cost them.  
    If it is to facilitate cross border settlement then they are a bit early to the party,  and I don’t see fluctuations creating anything other than opportunity for them.  I know this mantra of “Institutions want a stable price” is oft repeated in the xrp space but so far I’ve never seen anyone explain why that would be so.  I think volatility for them (if they have a large bag) is at worst an annoyance but at best an opportunity.
    So I have two issues...  the idea that Ripple are suppressing or stabilising price goes against my understanding (doesn’t mean it’s wrong...) and I do not as yet believe there is any business need for stability.
    Happy to be proven wrong and do not want to imply any aspersions against your excellent analysis.  Thanks again for generously sharing.
  19. Thanks
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation   
    Dear XRPChat, I had planned on making another prediction of Q1 sales before the quarterly report came out, but unfortunately, my day job has been keeping me very busy so I didn't have the time needed to attend to  it - and I had problems with my analysis that I didn't understand and that I hope I have rectified now. In my previous posts Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales and 2018 Q4 analysis, I summed payments from wallets to XRP-II to see what the quarterly payments were, and to total them up to see if they matched the sales figures announced by ripple. I had expected to do the same for Q1 2019, but the numbers looked wrong, my correlations were not consistent and the sales figures as a % of coinmarketcap volume didn't look right. I have extensively rewritten (and improved) my software and now have new findings that I feel confident enough about to share them.
    First, lets remind ourself of daily sales by ripple - in previous threads I found a strong correlation between yesterday's trading volume on coinmarketcap and today's sales (transfers) to the XRP-II distribution wallet. I identified 4 wallets that appeared to sum to about the right amount to explain the sales figures in the quarterly reports. Those wallets were referred to as RP1, RP2, RP3 and RP9. I refer the interested reader to the links above to find further details. If we plot the daily payments from those 4 wallets into the XRP-II wallet (XRP-II being the legal entity licensed to sell XRP to exchanges and customers and is presumably responsible for the programmatic daily sales as well as any number of other sales that we know little about). Here's what the sales look like from April 2018 until today, Note the line plot (linear, left y axis) is the sum of all the individual payments represented by dots that are logarithmically plotted (right axis). I found a strong correlation between the sum of payments and the coinmarketcap exchange volume, scaled by a factor that was around the 0.3% mark.

    I was intrigued by the drop in sales around mid Sept 2018 that preceeded a large jump in price and volume a week later. My hypothesis was that the drop in sales might be responsible for part of the rise in price (supply/demand). The sales pattern continued, largely unchanged until this year, though there are many wallets that transfer into XRP-II and they change over time, so it is difficult to be certain as to the true nature/volume or reason for the sales taking place. Please be aware that the graph above shows payments INTO the XRP-II wallet, and not out - this is because there are many more payments out and I was trying to identify that portion of sales that represents the daily programmatic sales. For the reasons I've just mentioned, it's too hard to be certain of any motives for individual wallet payments, so instead, I shall focus on payments OUT of XRP-II.
    Let's have a look at another plot, this time I plot all transfers OUT of XRP-II going into exchange accounts. I am grateful for the google sheet provided by @Silkjaer for a list of wallets that I have used for my assumptions of exchange addresses.

    You can immediately see that the payments to exchanges is very numerous. The summed total is shown by the solid line and the axes are consistent with the first plot. The totals also follow the same pattern as the sales into XRP-II from the subset of wallets, but is much higher as we are now including other payments from other wallets that are passed through and then go on to exchanges.
    Let's now show a more interesting graph - this has plots of the total exchange volume from coinmarketcap in green, I have normalized the plot to have the same area under it as the summed total of payments into XRP-II with a time shift of 1 day to show the correlation of the two graphs. The lighter blue line is the RP1,2,3,9 payments into XRP-II and the darker blue line is the summed payments out to exchanges. You should hopefully be able to see that the correlation between XRP-II payments and exchange volume is very strong, however, the correlation starts to break down in Q1 2019 and deteriorates further in Q2 2019 - the reason why my earlier correlation plots failed to give (to me) satisfying results.

    I have highlighted 3 regions on this plot. The first is in Sept 2018 (grey bar) when the sales from XRP-II virtually stopped. I speculated at the time that the xrp price (shown in the above plot as the black solid line) dropped to a low value for the year and probably ripple wanted to support the price by holding off sales temporarily. If that was the plan, then it worked very well as there was a massive jump at the end of Sept that still defies any reasonable explanation. So many news announcements are constantly being made about partnerships with ripple and events taking place that it is hard to know what might have triggered the rise.
    The second (grey bar) highlighted region in the plot is in May of this year - the difference between the green (coinmarketcap) and blue lines become very clear. Ripple shut down sales significantly again this month, and we have seen the price rise from ~30c to ~40c. I begin to wonder if my earlier hypothesis might have been correct, but sadly, two events is not enough for a 5 sigma announcement!
    What else is interesting in the plot? - the red shaded rectangle represents a point where the price of bitcoin was pumping hard, the exchange volume for all coins soared, but the price of XRP did not move very much. Why is that - we can see that the two blue lines rise well above the green one as ripple increased sales significantly - I speculate that they did not wish to see the price shoot up as we saw in Dec 2017, only to fall down again after the pump/dump/fomo/madness was over.
    Another interesting piece of data is revealed in the plot - the red crosses are payments from exchange accounts BACK to XRP-II - this hardly ever happened in 2018, except for a few scattered points in the year and a cluster of them around Sept 2018 when the sales halted. It is my second hypothesis that ripple have changed strategy during Q1. Prior to this, we see an almost constant sale of XRP proportional to exchange volume, during Q1, particularly after Feb 2019, the sales deviate from a simple pattern and we see returns from exchanges back to XRP-II. It would appear that their algorithm is smarter now and is trying to adapt better to market fluctuations rather than just continuously sell every day.
    Do we have any way of corroborating this? well, I'm glad you asked. Here's another graph, this time I take a sliding window of 10 days worth of data from XRP-II sales, and the same 10 day window of data from coinmarketcap exchange volume and correlate them, normalize them and plot the scaling coefficient. This gives us the XRP-II sales as a % fraction of the coinmarketcap volume in a running plot and we can see the fluctuation in sales as time progresses. The solid line shows the closing price of XRP, the two dotted lines are the running scale coefficients of the daily % of sales from XRP-II - the red is RP1,2,3,9 the green is ALL payments from exchanges (subtracting the return payments shown by the red crosses in the plot above).

    Now we can see quite clearly the event in Sept 2018 and the massive drop in may 2019. what is now apparent is Feb-May 2019 there was a large increase in sales as a % of daily volume. Throughout 2018, the red line holds reasonably closely to 0.15% of daily sales, which is fairly consistent with the figures quoted in the ripple quarterly reports. In Q1, things start deviating, and Q2 is all over the place. The drops in Sep 2018 and May 2019 are both followed by XRP price rallies. I added a dotted line at 0.05% of sales just to show how low the sales have dipped.
    What do I conclude from this...
    Ripple have changed their selling strategy to better adapt to market conditions and during March/April they increased quite significantly the sales, presumably to smooth out market pump/dump peaks and troughs. Financial institutions do not want like price fluctuations as it increases their cost of holdings - something we should all be grateful for as we want banks to buy in, not run away. Price fluctuations can also increase lay-off costs for market makers which also negatively impacts the market. (We're in this for the long play after all). There has been a slight decoupling over the last month or two with BTC as sales from XRP-II have been historically speaking very high. The large volumes we've seen did not move the price as much as one would have expected. Now would be a great time to pump XRP if whales are reading this! with XRP-II sales very low, it will be easier to move the market. Please go ahead and do this if you can. I'd like to see how high you can push XRP EDIT: I forgot to add one point - why do I think that sales have dropped in recent days? My suspicion (pure speculation) is that with the bear market seemingly coming to an end, Ripple feel safer in allowing the price to rise slightly to accommodate the new corridors they are adding.
    Disclaimers.
    All the data has been collected here by a random amateur on the internet. I do not even know for sure if the wallets I examine belong to XRP-II. I do not know for sure if the exchange address I use are correct. All the data in this article could be wrong. I might have even made it up just for giggles (I didn't but how do you know? Do you trust me?) This is not investment advice. But IMHO price rises are more likely when XRP-II sales are low.
  20. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to zerpdigger in Ripple + GMT (Isreal) Worlds 5th largest FI/AKbank (Turkey) starts using XRapid   
    yes please ban these "news" sites, they are outright scams and fake news and lies
  21. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to princesultan in Ripple + GMT (Isreal) Worlds 5th largest FI/AKbank (Turkey) starts using XRapid   
    i really do thing that all these garbage crypto blog posts need to go into a separate section of this forum that's almost hidden so that it doesn't pollute what we see as the latest forum threads. whenever i login, i look to see the latest forum threads and i see a headline that's interesting, only to see it links to one of these garbage blog sites. i almost know immediately it's trash, but sometimes still click the link in hopes of it being true with facts. after doing this time on time again over a prolonged period, it really leaves a bad taste in your mouth, which is why i try to stick to the zerpbox as much as possible. @karlos, do you have any suggestion here?
  22. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to princesultan in Tiffany Hayden   
    Those that have been around here long enough know some of the moves jed has pulled in the last and will never forget that. I, for one, do not trust his character whatsoever and would never touch anything he's involved with. 
    That being said, I do think ripple and stellar probably worked things out behind the scenes, for the greater good, which I can get down with. 
  23. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to King34Maine in Battle Between Ripple And Stellar, A Clear Winner May Be Emerging, Expert Says   
    This is one of the reasons why Ripple created a Default UNL list based upon strict guidelines centered around diversity, performance, reliability, and security.  When your blockchain/DLT network is responsible for potentially validating multimillion-dollar transactions for banks, central banks, and FIs there cannot be any ambiguity or downtime!!! While anyone can run a node for the XRP-Ledger, Ripple knew that their unique clientele were not going to feel comfortable relying on your “average joe” to process/validate transactions worth millions. They want a validator network of data centers/institutions (i.e. WorldLink, Telindus-Proximus Group, Bahnhof (Swedish ISP), AT TOKYO Corporation, Microsoft, MIT, and CGI) who have a proven record of being both reliable and secure and who are not like, "Oh ****" during power outages, etc.
  24. Thanks
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to LeonidasH in XRP Fiat pairs   
    XRP is paired to 47 fiat currencies, with a total of 320 markets across 194 exchanges (that we know of). Finally managed to update the XRParcade fiat pairs page. If you want to view the exchanges for every fiat currency, click on the button.
    https://www.xrparcade.com/xrpfiatpairs/

    PS: XRP - Total pairs (both xrp to fiat and xrp to crypto) 1003 markets across 321 exchanges
  25. Like
    PunishmentOfLuxury reacted to RobertHarpool in Will this tweet be deleted/ amended soon...?!   
    Dear Mr Vays, 
    I think your cause can be furthered if you found a way to mention other trigger words like Satan, Spam jelly, Mongolian hordes, or simple chronic halitosis. 
    Regards, 
    Someone Who Clearly Knows WaAaAaAaAaAay More Than You
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