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JA8

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  1. XLM was always on my radar as well as XRP. James Rickards has suggested for a couple of years that XLM will eventually form part of the SDR basket of currencies, so that's pretty compelling considering the circles he moves in - he personally knows many of the decision makers after all. The macros do seem to indicate things might be moving in that direction, broadly speaking... so he may be right. The trick is remain balanced on these things. Take it with a pinch of salt, but don't be wilfully blind either. I don't consider that the pump in XLM is at all unwarranted or strange. As part of their partnership with IBM they have payment systems working well in many of the isolated south pacific islands, oceania etc. This proof of concept has likely not escaped the attention of policy makers in larger economies. This week, the OCC announced that they will allow US banks to use public blockchains and stablecoins as part of their settlement infrastructure. The main beneficiaries of this are naturally the public blockchains which support such stablecoins; and if you're paying attention you'll note that Stellar has just joined the ranks of Ethereum and Algorand in supporting USDC. I don't believe XLM is at risk of being declared a security in the same vein as XRP. This is because they have been more careful about their governance model. There is a non-profit Stellar Foundation which controls the tokens. Not to say that the SEC is right to go after XRP - it's pretty obvious there is something fishy about it, and it wouldn't surprise me if various allegiances were involved in the decision to pursue them.
  2. https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/90135/ripple-series-c-lead-investor-tetragon-sues-the-company
  3. Forbes is an open blogging site, a free-for-all. Anyone can submit articles, as is the case here.
  4. https://modernconsensus.com/politics/u-s-intelligence-head-asked-sec-to-investigate-chinese-control-over-crypto-report/ For whatever reason, Jay Clayton decided to go in the exact opposite direction, and aggressively pursue Ripple for the kill... why? CCP infiltration into government agencies is not a conspiracy theory: https://usaherald.com/bombshell-data-leak-reveals-2-million-chinese-spies-embedded-in-critical-western-industries-and-governments/ Note that Brad referred to China-controlled currencies in his open response to the SEC lawsuit.
  5. According to the SEC suit, something like ~90% of Ripple's income still comes from XRP sales. If their legal team advises them at this juncture to discontinue sales of XRP as a precautionary measure - as I believe they might - then in the absence of alternative ways to replace that income they will need to trim a lot of fat, optimise operations and lay off a (large?) number of employees. If they decide to continue with XRP sales, then this might be construed as a flagrant disregard for the law - something which could work against them later on. Should the SEC win the case, then any remedial action that involves significant divestment (or burning) of XRP may also have implications for the survival of the business.
  6. If you're the slightest bit diversified, I've got a hunch that your time will come (and soon). Within a few weeks I think we'll start seeing comparable price appreciation in other tokens. Of course, XRP has a huge supply and that may restrict its upside to a degree. I am sure it will break its ATH within the next year though.
  7. It may be that he felt the prospects for XRP / ODL no longer seemed as promising as a few years ago - and that would be quite pragmatic of course, because XRP still remains in limbo with the SEC, thereby ensuring that it cannot (ever?) fulfil its potential. I can only imagine his frustration, trying to do his job with his hands tied.
  8. Hopefully, we do nothing. If businesses can't survive the pandemic, then that's very unfortunate... but that's capitalism. If we intervene to prop up markets we just end up creating an ever-more indebted zombie economy. Without the endless money printing we've seen over the past decade, businesses would not have been able to spend themselves into a corner, nor expand to an unrealistic size based on fake demand from currency inflation. If we hadn't taken that unfortunate path, then today there would be healthier businesses with better job security and better job prospects. These would be serving real needs within the market... and with proportionally stronger balance sheets they would be better equipped to handle the events we're seeing unfold now. A Crypto-based monetary system could have mitigated a lot of the economic carnage we're now unfortunately guaranteed to see over the coming decade.
  9. Due to the illegal selling of non-existent silver in the paper markets... a major scam about to crumble in the wake of this crisis imo, as they're selling even more of it (the non existent stuff) to raise cash / cover margin calls. Real silver is scarce... can't really find any at the UK at the moment... even at the Royal Mint (last time I checked). People are buying real silver hand over fist. I buy gold coins because it's CGT and VAT exempt. At least I was buying gold coins - quite difficult now. Shortages everywhere.
  10. In my opinion, crypto in general will probably see a safe haven bid. Particularly as the legacy financial system falls apart quite thoroughly over coming weeks and years. Hedges in this respect have historically been the dollar, bonds and gold/silver. Let's take a look at the dollar (six month DXY chart): As we can see, the USD has been pumping quite a bit. Precious metals have relatively underperformed and will probably keep underperforming until the USD begins to look top-ish. This could be unfolding right now... note the correction in USD above which is probably worth keeping an eye on. A parallel for the USD may be BTC's blow-off top in 2017. As it started to look bloated, people started speculating more in other coins. Once BTC began plummeting in earnest, everyone rushed to the exits - and this is when we saw XRP launch like a rocket. Similarly, I expect gold and silver to start showing more strength as the USD begins: a) showing weakness; or b) starts looking like a bubble. A major crisis like this has never happened before in BTC's lifetime, so one cannot be absolutely certain that BTC will perform well. However, as an "escape route" from fiat currency and from the legacy financial system, it does have a sound argument. As digital gold, it is arguably better than real gold: it is more portable and more divisible, and importantly - it bears no counter-party risk. In 1971 Nixon confiscated gold. It's hard to see that happening with Bitcoin unless they shut down the internet. Whilst XRP does not have the same characteristics as BTC, if the rush into BTC happens - as seems likely to me - then the wider crypto market will probably receive some speculative overflow bids. Personally, I've lightened up on XRP (I already owned a fair amount) in order to buy more gold and silver. I think there's a pretty good chance that silver in particular will outperform crypto. I've also lightened up on bank deposits as I don't trust the banks to remain solvent either ($10trn global reserves, $300trn+ global debt, $1.2qdrn in derivatives). I'm telling everyone at the moment to at least consider the risks of bank defaults. Better safe than sorry. I expect more deflation to come in the short to medium term, and the corresponding scramble for cash to affect all asset classes including safe havens. As investors in crypto, what we're looking for is the later inflationary effects - or the threat of inflation - to kick in. Good luck all.
  11. I agreed with Ackman's comments - although he has been known to be very wrong in the past. In yesterday's interview, he seemed to be under the impression that the current issues are merely Coronavirus-related(!), and even went so far as to say the economy was in fantastic shape before all of this. Odd. The UK just announced the enforced closure of all cafes, pubs, bars restaurant and gyms. I wonder how many of those will ever reopen. 20%? 10%? My main concern is actually ISPs or mobile phone companies. If people are isolated and cannot access the internet or make a phone call, then... Some in this thread have asked about the rush into dollars. This is primarily due to what amounts to a (roughly speaking) $12trn margin call. Since 2008, most of the money used to save the failing plethora of otherwise-bankrupt corporations comprised loans in USD. Now, lots of that money has just gone up in smoke, and they still have to honour repayment schedules. The Fed is trying to ease this situation with interest rate cuts, Repo and swap facilities. Still, we will likely have several periods to come where - between the impending QE4, QE5, QE6, QE7 and other QE-like actions - the USD just skyrockets upwards as people scramble to ensure they have enough dollars to repay their debt. That is, until the sheer amount of USD being printed causes a loss of trust and devalues the dollar entirely, prompting a huuuuuge reversal / rush out of USD into...
  12. In 2008, gold and silver bottomed a couple of months into the crash (until Oct 2008, whereas the crash itself continued until Feb 2009 or so). We might anticipate something similar happening this time. And if BTC is similarly going to work as a safe haven - which does make a lot of sense - it may also bottom much sooner than the stock markets. But really, the above doesn't help because we don't know whether this crash is going to play out more like 2008, or more like (eek) 1929. A realistic-moderate scenario (i.e. 2008 style) for the S&P or the Dow etc is a 50% decline over the next several months. If the crash continues in several waves and bottoms in August, we might expect a bottom for crypto quite soon. If not already, then within a month or so. But... the macro economic picture is far, far, far worse than 2008. There is much more debt in the system. So I am thinking this could easily turn into something more akin to 1929. Coronavirus is about the cruellest way this bubble could pop due to supply chain disruption, mass quarantines and social reconditioning. If it's going to play out like 1929, then a realistic worst-case would be something like an 80% drop in stocks over the next two-three years. The delay in producing a vaccine and the likelihood of waves of mass infections and quarantines gives some credence to this idea. If this happens, then we may see several phases of liquidity drawdowns in crypto and gold/silver as well. People suckered back in too early may see a second or third wave of margin calls. There is absolutely zero certainty here. Anyone pronouncing "the bottom is in for crypto" is being naive. There are just so many variables now to consider. I'm advising anyone at this point to be extremely careful. Keep a reasonable amount in cash (ideally not in your bank!). This whole debacle could take years to play out - not merely days, weeks or months. By all means take a punt if you think the bottom is close, but keep your sanity.
  13. BTC and some other cryptos could do very well out of this crisis for various reasons. I wouldn't write them off. Imagine for instance if the stock markets took a 30 day "holiday" as some pundits are suggesting. The drawdown in pretty much everything at present is due to a liquidity crisis. Once the stock market stabilises I personally think cryptos (and gold and silver) will go much higher. Hard to say if that will happen today or in a few months though. Most bear markets in stocks last several months at least. This could be a second Great Depression, in which case the bear market could last 3 years + In 2008 precious metals started rising before stocks bottomed out.
  14. So, Dow Futures closed limit down, in spite of QE5 and rates to zero. The Fed is effectively out of ammunition now - that's it. If no amount of stimulus will prop up the market, then... well... I guess you can say you were around to see it happen! Might be time to consider taking your cash out of the bank in the morning.... if it opens. Only half joking there.
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