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ObeyTheWafflehouse

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  1. I think, yes. Crypto are not heavily traded markets compared to, let's say, Crude Oil futures. With lightly traded markets, it is easier to push around prices. Look at the move back in October/November. From .25 to ~.70 (>100%) in two days. In heavily traded instruments, this would be an anomaly. In crypto, it's another Tuesday. With that said, if you want the most liquid asset globally, you need a couple of things. 1. Higher prices - You need percentage changes from day to day be less than 2% on average. Ex. Gold 2. You need higher trading volume - Forex transacts $3-6 trillion PER DAY. 3. Multiple base pairs - if your asset/instrument cannot touch almost all walks of life on this planet, it will not be liquid for everybody We need growth to be nice and steady, not a flip of a switch
  2. I haven't read all the posts here, but to add into this, what we saw in late 2017 is not a healthy market. The faster the price shoots up, the bigger the pull back. We want a nice steady growth in an upward trend. This helps with not only liquidity, but then investors can view XRP as a possible investment. That's ultimately what we want.
  3. There are many theories out there of why patterns form in the markets. Patterns can come in forms as shapes (bull/bear wedges, flags, pennants, etc), seasons, cycles (recessions), waves (Elliot wave theory), etc. Cryptos have been trading for a very short time. My explanation is going to be from my perspective on how I view the crypto markets and the research I have done. IMO the early adopters of BTC control the majority of the currency. They are the ones who have the most affect on the markets and are able to control the markets to some aspect. They want to make money in both directions. However with BTC being hard capped, the only way for BTC to gain more value (neglecting utility) is the addition of new money. Crypto markets being hard capped is a positive sum game mixed in with a zero sum game. So if you hold a large amount of BTC and markets are being driven up, you create FOMO, and then you sell little by little while new money is buying. I think this is why you see a lot of bitcoin maximists. You keep selling until you exhaust the markets. An exhausted market is a market that is driven so much one way it has a point that it cannot travel any more in that direction. I believe this is what we saw in BTC 2014 and 2017. Late 2017 markets were driven up so much (no new money entered the markets) that we had to snapped back (reverse) while large holders were selling off. Do you remember late 2017? Bitcoin was every where. CNBC was talking about it every day, the start of futures contracts, investment firms were entering into the market, etc. It was euphoric. Every day BTC just kept rising, until it didn't. This plays into market psychology and the Dow Theory. Really high highs, followed with really low lows. With that being said, I believe BTC 2015 and BTC 2019 are going to be similar with new market participates and new money. I believe the market is looking for a catalyst to catapult these markets back into a bull market. Fidelity and coinbase are offering custody solutions meaning that smart money wants to enter, and government regulations are gaining some traction. IMF is a cheerleader for cryptos and saying if banks do not adjust to change, they will be left behind. JP Morgan created their own currency. Cryptocurrency isn't a fad, people are still building infrastructure, developing, partnering, buying out, and merging together. Fundamentally speaking, this is setting up great for a bull run. Technically speaking, the markets are setting up to break out of this bear market. With that being said, fundamentals always override technicals in the long term. It could be possible we break the support and all cryptos drop another 50% if we haven't reached market exhaustion. From my perspective, we reached market exhaustion. If you had weak hands or wanted to make a quick buck either you sold off and cut your losses or don't care and are just waiting for markets to rise again. But to answer your question, I believe this is all market psychology (Example: Dow Theory) tied into supporting technicals. When people are taking out loans to invest in crypto you should be exiting, and when people are fearful, you should be greedy.
  4. Not to steal the show from @Eric123, but I think this is why we are seeing the same setup across all cryptos. If you compare BTC 2015 vs BTC 2019, both dropped ~50% and then began forming initial stages of creating this wedge. Comparing them side by side (with some variation), they are setting up very similar. This is a FACT, not my opinion. We can now begin to determine what to look for as far as breaking out of this damn bear market. Edit: I expect this bottom wedge line to be tested again, and then we will see if we break through the trendline.
  5. From left to right we have XRPUSD 2019, BTCUSD 2019 and BTCUSD 2015 weekly charts, respectively. The common pattern we notice is a strong daily downward trend marked by the red line. On the opposite side, we have a support line forming on XRP and BTC 2019. The similarities are marked and if 2019 plays out like 2015, we will breakout of this downward trend followed by the resting of the daily downward red trend line . This is marked by the up, green arrow in the BTC 2015 chart. This retractory period is important, and will confirm the support we are seeing note by the blue shaded boxes. I suspect that XRP will likely trade with BTC until xRapid volume significantly picks up (I'm pessimistic for the short term until data says otherwise). HOWEVER, with that being said it seems that the markets are looking for catalyst to turn around this bear market (government regulations, smart money entering, more investment firms, etc.) as we are already seeing. To me, this supports the idea that we are nearing the end of a bear market. XRP's price support needs to hold at ~.25, BTC's price support needs hold at ~3000 otherwise if the support does not hold, we will drop another 50% from current levels. This is looking like it will be late summer before my confirmations are met. As a side note, we are seeing Fidelity (holds $7 trillion in assets) offer custody solutions for a "select" group of institutional investors and there are bills being introduced into Congress for regulation clarity, which is very bullish news that might "kick start" the next bull run. It will be fun to watch it play out over the next couple of months!!!
  6. I am eyeing the retest of the bottom of this wedge at ~ 3500, and am still looking to beat the day downward trendline which is the first signal into entering a bull market. Looks like it may take a month to play out.
  7. There's good information that circulates on a lot of threads. Everyone of us has reasons why we think XRP is succeed in the future, but it's really up to you to spend some time investigating, researching, and formulating your own opinion on why XRP is the right investment for you. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Many of us are in this for the long term (3-5+) and don't view XRP has a "get rich quick scheme." One reason why I invested in XRP is that it solves a real payments problem. Have you ever submitted a wire transfer, and then 3 hours later have the bank call you to tell you there was a problem? I have and it's very frustrating. XRP solves that problem and settles payments in real-time. Now there are many other reasons why XRP may be a good investment choice, but it's up to you to Do Your Own Research! Happy Zerping!
  8. I have been waiting for awhile for XRP to be added to Coinbase. Has there been any information or indication on what the Fidelity/Coinbase has in store? Possibly 401k/Roth IRA contributions into crypto?
  9. Now that XRP is listed on Coinbase, Coinbase Vault is supposed to act as a cold storage wallet from my understanding. Does anyone have any more information on this? I've been looking for a secure cold storage solution that I can trust. Or are we still going to fall back on "unless you have XRP in your possession, it is not technically yours/safe."
  10. If they did, would they tell you? No. The more people know about a particular trade setup, the less profitable it becomes. Trust me, there are trading bots out there that do work. Obviously, they come in all sorts of sizes and shapes.
  11. It seems to me that the more liquidity and exchanges providing XRP support, the easier it is for XRP to break away from BTC's indexing. I'm speculating that xRapid volume is going to be that tipping point based on the incidence in sept. Item 4 is a theory. We won't really every know for sure, but what we can say for certain is that whatever happened in late sept drastically affected XRP's price and only pertained to XRP since the rest of the crypto market wasn't shook up.
  12. Sure. If there's a discrepancy between prices from one exchange to the next, there will be a profit to be made. However, the profit will start to come down to who has the fastest internet, how close they are to the exchange, and who has the fastest computers. I recommend just building a bot to trade a specific crypto. This would be more profitable.
  13. This post below sparked a perspective of mine. I am genuinely interested to see how Xrapid volume will affect the price of XRP. I was hesitant on creating this post, but the intention is to provide an insight of how xRapid can affect XRP's price. And this comment, along with the twitter thread in the post. Let's speculate, and say that MV37 ran tests and coincided with two major price spikes in sept. last year. This would provide us a glimpse on how XRP will react under some type of xRapid/XRP volume. However Ripple may not want wild fluctuations, so I would anticipate volume slowly building up volume over a course of time. Also let me add the fact that this volume that occurred in sept last year, decoupled XRP's price action from BTC's price action over a short period of time. This builds a theory that the one way for XRP to decouple from BTC is through usage of xRapid. Obviously it would seem that this is common sense, but we have not had (at least to my knowledge) legitimate data to support this theory. As we can see, XRP had a rise of ~200% in Sept. This decoupling of XRP from BTC actually offset XRP's price action and then in November cryptos across the board dropped ~50%. If it is true that sept really did offset XRP's price action, in theory we should actually be trading at approximately .15 USD. To support this even more, an argument that I can make is that XLM traded approximately half of XRP's price through most of 2018 until sept. Currently, XLM is trading at ~.08 while XRP is at ~.30. What do I conclude from this? 1. Arbitrage bots are more than likely making up most of the trade volume in crypto right now. They are also using BTC as an index for the the markets meaning that BTC being the leader and all other cryptos are playing follow the leader (again seems like common sense but we have new data). 2. Sept volume was more than likely Xrapid volume since there was no other news within days of the time frame. However Xrapid going live was announced on Oct 1 (this is still supporting fact that xrapid was being used). 3. We have not decoupled from BTC yet, but Xrapid volume is powerful enough to decouple us from BTC. 4. XRP's price should, at least in theory, be trading at ~.15 USD if sept's price spike would have never happened. 5. Assuming that testing from DDTC can jump the price of XRP ~200% within a couple of days, then the ATH of $3 based on pure speculation and no real utility, can be EASILY surpassed. To remind you, the smart money still has yet to enter the arena.
  14. Yeesh. When did all the TA experts come out of the woods? I admire the artwork guys.
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