Circle_2001 reacted to Molten in Charting the course of XRP
Most of us are looking at this in the context of our cost averages, which are likely higher than the current price. I know the absolute value of the moves appear small, but in just about 3 weeks XRP has appreciated 34% from the bottom to now. That is already a fabulous return and we are just getting started.
Circle_2001 reacted to jbjnr in Q1 postmortem analysis and Q2 speculation
Dear XRPChat, I had planned on making another prediction of Q1 sales before the quarterly report came out, but unfortunately, my day job has been keeping me very busy so I didn't have the time needed to attend to it - and I had problems with my analysis that I didn't understand and that I hope I have rectified now. In my previous posts Analysis of Ripple's XRP sales and 2018 Q4 analysis, I summed payments from wallets to XRP-II to see what the quarterly payments were, and to total them up to see if they matched the sales figures announced by ripple. I had expected to do the same for Q1 2019, but the numbers looked wrong, my correlations were not consistent and the sales figures as a % of coinmarketcap volume didn't look right. I have extensively rewritten (and improved) my software and now have new findings that I feel confident enough about to share them.
First, lets remind ourself of daily sales by ripple - in previous threads I found a strong correlation between yesterday's trading volume on coinmarketcap and today's sales (transfers) to the XRP-II distribution wallet. I identified 4 wallets that appeared to sum to about the right amount to explain the sales figures in the quarterly reports. Those wallets were referred to as RP1, RP2, RP3 and RP9. I refer the interested reader to the links above to find further details. If we plot the daily payments from those 4 wallets into the XRP-II wallet (XRP-II being the legal entity licensed to sell XRP to exchanges and customers and is presumably responsible for the programmatic daily sales as well as any number of other sales that we know little about). Here's what the sales look like from April 2018 until today, Note the line plot (linear, left y axis) is the sum of all the individual payments represented by dots that are logarithmically plotted (right axis). I found a strong correlation between the sum of payments and the coinmarketcap exchange volume, scaled by a factor that was around the 0.3% mark.
I was intrigued by the drop in sales around mid Sept 2018 that preceeded a large jump in price and volume a week later. My hypothesis was that the drop in sales might be responsible for part of the rise in price (supply/demand). The sales pattern continued, largely unchanged until this year, though there are many wallets that transfer into XRP-II and they change over time, so it is difficult to be certain as to the true nature/volume or reason for the sales taking place. Please be aware that the graph above shows payments INTO the XRP-II wallet, and not out - this is because there are many more payments out and I was trying to identify that portion of sales that represents the daily programmatic sales. For the reasons I've just mentioned, it's too hard to be certain of any motives for individual wallet payments, so instead, I shall focus on payments OUT of XRP-II.
Let's have a look at another plot, this time I plot all transfers OUT of XRP-II going into exchange accounts. I am grateful for the google sheet provided by @Silkjaer for a list of wallets that I have used for my assumptions of exchange addresses.
You can immediately see that the payments to exchanges is very numerous. The summed total is shown by the solid line and the axes are consistent with the first plot. The totals also follow the same pattern as the sales into XRP-II from the subset of wallets, but is much higher as we are now including other payments from other wallets that are passed through and then go on to exchanges.
Let's now show a more interesting graph - this has plots of the total exchange volume from coinmarketcap in green, I have normalized the plot to have the same area under it as the summed total of payments into XRP-II with a time shift of 1 day to show the correlation of the two graphs. The lighter blue line is the RP1,2,3,9 payments into XRP-II and the darker blue line is the summed payments out to exchanges. You should hopefully be able to see that the correlation between XRP-II payments and exchange volume is very strong, however, the correlation starts to break down in Q1 2019 and deteriorates further in Q2 2019 - the reason why my earlier correlation plots failed to give (to me) satisfying results.
I have highlighted 3 regions on this plot. The first is in Sept 2018 (grey bar) when the sales from XRP-II virtually stopped. I speculated at the time that the xrp price (shown in the above plot as the black solid line) dropped to a low value for the year and probably ripple wanted to support the price by holding off sales temporarily. If that was the plan, then it worked very well as there was a massive jump at the end of Sept that still defies any reasonable explanation. So many news announcements are constantly being made about partnerships with ripple and events taking place that it is hard to know what might have triggered the rise.
The second (grey bar) highlighted region in the plot is in May of this year - the difference between the green (coinmarketcap) and blue lines become very clear. Ripple shut down sales significantly again this month, and we have seen the price rise from ~30c to ~40c. I begin to wonder if my earlier hypothesis might have been correct, but sadly, two events is not enough for a 5 sigma announcement!
What else is interesting in the plot? - the red shaded rectangle represents a point where the price of bitcoin was pumping hard, the exchange volume for all coins soared, but the price of XRP did not move very much. Why is that - we can see that the two blue lines rise well above the green one as ripple increased sales significantly - I speculate that they did not wish to see the price shoot up as we saw in Dec 2017, only to fall down again after the pump/dump/fomo/madness was over.
Another interesting piece of data is revealed in the plot - the red crosses are payments from exchange accounts BACK to XRP-II - this hardly ever happened in 2018, except for a few scattered points in the year and a cluster of them around Sept 2018 when the sales halted. It is my second hypothesis that ripple have changed strategy during Q1. Prior to this, we see an almost constant sale of XRP proportional to exchange volume, during Q1, particularly after Feb 2019, the sales deviate from a simple pattern and we see returns from exchanges back to XRP-II. It would appear that their algorithm is smarter now and is trying to adapt better to market fluctuations rather than just continuously sell every day.
Do we have any way of corroborating this? well, I'm glad you asked. Here's another graph, this time I take a sliding window of 10 days worth of data from XRP-II sales, and the same 10 day window of data from coinmarketcap exchange volume and correlate them, normalize them and plot the scaling coefficient. This gives us the XRP-II sales as a % fraction of the coinmarketcap volume in a running plot and we can see the fluctuation in sales as time progresses. The solid line shows the closing price of XRP, the two dotted lines are the running scale coefficients of the daily % of sales from XRP-II - the red is RP1,2,3,9 the green is ALL payments from exchanges (subtracting the return payments shown by the red crosses in the plot above).
Now we can see quite clearly the event in Sept 2018 and the massive drop in may 2019. what is now apparent is Feb-May 2019 there was a large increase in sales as a % of daily volume. Throughout 2018, the red line holds reasonably closely to 0.15% of daily sales, which is fairly consistent with the figures quoted in the ripple quarterly reports. In Q1, things start deviating, and Q2 is all over the place. The drops in Sep 2018 and May 2019 are both followed by XRP price rallies. I added a dotted line at 0.05% of sales just to show how low the sales have dipped.
What do I conclude from this...
Ripple have changed their selling strategy to better adapt to market conditions and during March/April they increased quite significantly the sales, presumably to smooth out market pump/dump peaks and troughs. Financial institutions do not want like price fluctuations as it increases their cost of holdings - something we should all be grateful for as we want banks to buy in, not run away. Price fluctuations can also increase lay-off costs for market makers which also negatively impacts the market. (We're in this for the long play after all). There has been a slight decoupling over the last month or two with BTC as sales from XRP-II have been historically speaking very high. The large volumes we've seen did not move the price as much as one would have expected. Now would be a great time to pump XRP if whales are reading this! with XRP-II sales very low, it will be easier to move the market. Please go ahead and do this if you can. I'd like to see how high you can push XRP EDIT: I forgot to add one point - why do I think that sales have dropped in recent days? My suspicion (pure speculation) is that with the bear market seemingly coming to an end, Ripple feel safer in allowing the price to rise slightly to accommodate the new corridors they are adding.
All the data has been collected here by a random amateur on the internet. I do not even know for sure if the wallets I examine belong to XRP-II. I do not know for sure if the exchange address I use are correct. All the data in this article could be wrong. I might have even made it up just for giggles (I didn't but how do you know? Do you trust me?) This is not investment advice. But IMHO price rises are more likely when XRP-II sales are low.
Circle_2001 reacted to PunishmentOfLuxury in BDO Unibank, SmartBank, CIMB Bank, JNFX are on RippleNet
CIMB partnership confirmed. A friend found this on Instagram (pity about cutting their heads off). Zafrul Aziz is CEO of CIMB.
Circle_2001 reacted to Malloy in XRP (and Alts) Market Cap Speculation
More than 2 years ago (link) I gave my thoughts on what could happened to XRP price...
I'm not a guru...don't have a crystal ball...just don't know much about anything..but...I trade 24/7 and when you can loose everything in a few seconds you have to look at the big picture to "try" to see what's coming so you do go bankrupt during that few hours of sleep I've allowed myself...so
In the near future...I'd say a year...XRP Market Cap should be on top...why
Going down the top 10...and a little more...
BTC. BTC has found some equilibrium in price...many speculate it's because below 6k USD it's not worth it for miners...but mining "is" the problem. Cost in $ and for the environment makes BTC unsustainable...the sooner everyone moves to something else the better...But that will bring blood on the market...BTC crash will bring down all the cryptos as it's been for the past years...Remember I'm talking market cap here not price...As for the eternal and continuous forks...it's just a running gag scam among serious investors and adds not value anymore to the coin.
ETH. On just TA...it's easy to see that ETH is barely hanging on its last resistance level...and who can give me a good use for ETH anyway beside pumping ICOs? Since ICOs are not the flavour of the month anymore who needs ETH? As for smart contract...there's always someone smarter somewhere that will create something even smarter...not that I understand anything about it...but neither 99.9% of the population. On the good side all those institution that bet on ETH have the infrastructure now to work on something else...their crypto dept. is ready to accommodate something else...why not XRP?
BCH. At the time I'm writing this BCH is about to fork...a real billionaire ideology war lol...anyone here can relate lol...Probably the last of the big scam fork BCH will probably show that doubling your coin out of thin air is a thing of the past...not saying others won't try again just saying if this fails badly it will create a milestone where nobody will take any fork seriously anymore...as for the use of BCH...pass!
STR/XLM...The one I love to hate...probably what we could consider the only fork attempt of XRP when Jed left...excuse me...was asked to leave! Jed's zillions $ can keep this one going pumping for years...if I could read his mind I'm sure I'd see his biggest dream is to take over XRP's market cap and show the world "he" was right...XLM might have some interesting approach to low fees third world transactions but the unlimited supply decided by ??? is not going to reassure any serious finance network...so even though they might have found a niche Jed's implication is going to end bad...
EOS. I always scroll down this one...that's what I think about it...nothing...oh yeah...they have consensus that collusion is behind what made them grow this fast...but "the investigation is still going on"
LTC. A fun light fork of BTC that's getting a little old too...based on the same technology that I don't believe is sustainable...Price used to be 1/10 of BTC...then 1/100...now a bid lower than that...same as ETH they're hanging on last resistance before a possible drastic fall...TA's not looking good..
ADA. The swiss project wanting to be so legit and it almost is...they're working hard to make something out of it and might succeed...I don't believe only one crypto will rule the world...this one could have a place depending on how the technology evolves...I believe the price is pretty much where it should be in this bear market...one to watch when the market starts to go crazy again
XMR. The leader of the anonymous coins Monero has a place in the crypto world...very strong community backing it and a important technology to develop...anonymity is very important for all individual but even more if you live in some countries...no matter how much FUDders repeat that it's used by criminals...the most (and by far far far) used financial tools by international criminals is the US dollars (EUR probably not too far)...as for all the anonymous cheap clones some will probably find a niche too...and that's a good thing!
Not in the top 10 but what I believe will also find a place cause it has already a use case scenario is all the gaming coins....some for video games some for gambling...I prefer the video games one cause they already are used in the games but they're not call crypto yet...but it's coming...many gamers found way around the game market place to sell through paypal their account or artifacts...it'll be much easier with a crypto integrated in the game...watch for big names coming soon...as for gambling...it will always be there so...
Not in the top 10 and never will are all the business that tried an ICO instead of an IPO...they're already all moving out the crypto side of their business leaving the investors bag token holders with not much...I'm very septic about any of them giving back any value to the people that believed in their project...if some of them have their business going they'll have to move to a more traditional financial game and we'll never hear about them anymore...
XRP. lol...if you're here I don't have to repeat everything you already know so... stay safe with your investment cause If what I wrote happens. they'll be blood in the markets and price will go wild on either side...and that will be scary moments if you need this money to pay the rent or buy food for the family...stay safe...if you invest...go only with what you can loose...one thing an old fart told me when I started trading...once I buy something (stocks it was) my money is gone and I have to believe I'll never see it again...that way I sleep better at night.
Circle_2001 reacted to AlejoMoreno in What if world decides to bypass USD as global currency and SEC cracks down?
I agree. There won't be a world currency because countries are not going to want to release the control that they have over their currency. A world currency introduces a whole set of issues: supply, controlled inflation, controlled deflation, who manages it, who prints it, who enforces it, how much of it does each country even get when we start using it and why?, what do we do with current fiat currency out law it?, will individuals still use old fiat anyway?. I don't even know if a world currency is what we even want. We can't even work together on simple issues, how will all the banks of the world somehow use one currency? I don't see it happening any time remotely soon.
Circle_2001 got a reaction from AlejoMoreno in What if world decides to bypass USD as global currency and SEC cracks down?
I think there are too many competing agendas across all the countries of the world for one currency. Someone will always think that it is not in their best interest and oppose the adoption. IMO It may happen in the future, but not any time soon
Circle_2001 reacted to Hodor in We are Early to the Party
Blog URL - Location: https://xrpcommunity.blog/we-are-early-to-the-party/
XRP fans may have shown up early to the party, but they know what to do: brew coffee and catch up on some light reading!
?????? ????: MUFG Bank and Banco Bradesco implement Ripple tech for Japan-Brazil cross-border payments; Emi Yoshikawa, Ripple's Head of Global Operations & Partnerships, plans on attending TechCrunch Shenzhen on November 20; and SEB has some interesting updates on its integration with Ripple technology.
??? ????: NEXO is offering lines of credit secured by individual crypto holdings; WietseWind has an XRParrot progress update; CKJ Crypto interviews the man behind the successful fundraising campaign for St Jude using the XRP Tip Bot; and RareData has created a hardware wallet comparison matrix.
I hope you enjoy the read & please leave any comments below.
Feel free to share my blog with anybody you'd like, and on any platform - and thank you for doing so!
Links to my blog announcements on other sites & media:
Twitter Reddit r/Ripple Reddit r/CryptoCurrency Reddit r/CryptoMarkets Reddit r/xrp Reddit r/RippleTalk Reddit r/alternativecoin Bitcointalk - alt coin sub forum Bitcointalk - XRP speculation thread
Circle_2001 got a reaction from rootvegetable in Ripple Investors Stunned As 40 Million XRP Coins Move To Former Creator Jed McCaleb
How is anyone stunned by this news?
Circle_2001 reacted to Tinyaccount in Moneygram prefering Visa over Ripple partnership?
Also I think that is part of the popularity of hardware wallets... you can hold them in your hand.
People think (at least on some level) that they have the Zerps in their hand. Not saying hardware wallets aren't good... just saying that perhaps part of their appeal is that they are physical objects.
Circle_2001 got a reaction from 30k1m in TAS and Ripple Software Integration Confirmed! (video)
So much good news over the last two quarters - i hope so
Circle_2001 got a reaction from Dinoizzy in Hikmet Ersek( ceo Western Union) talk about ripple 07/11/2018
it didn't seem like the door is completely closed on working with Ripple