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Everything posted by Texaschris

  1. While interesting it's also perfectly inconclusive. I guarantee the search incidence on any stock hot list of the best daily gainers is spiking right along with their price. Solve the chicken/egg conundrum and this could be of some use.
  2. In addition to all of this FUD, summer has always been correction period in the crypto world....it's all goin down boys....hit your exits, hide in fiat and BTC. We're gonna see some ridiculous prices in a few months. Most importantly, stack up the ammo for november-ish.
  3. If believing in their technology had any relationship to the price per unit, this would be a fantastic strategy. The amount of "believers" who wind up with nothing for their effort far outnumber the amount of believers who have seen any ROI at all. Unless youre already ridiculously wealthy and lazy, or you have so much XRP from the sub penny days that it's just not worth the risk exposure, holding an instrument that is declining in value is unwise. Good luck. We can visit this thread again when XRP hits 5 cents.
  4. This isn't what people want to hear.....but wait. XRP is not done sliding, by a longshot. I am an XRP long, but I'm also a realist. They have nothing but potential at the moment....and potential won't drive the price after a 4000+% increase.....it's currently up 2000% still. Just wait....You'll be able to pick up zerps at .10 cents.....and here's why I'm not super concerned if I'm wrong: In the event that it breaks tomorrow, no big deal. In the end, anything under .50 cents is a steal. Patience, patience, patience. related/unrelated....stay away from ETH for the time being. They're headed back to .05x minimum. Hacks, security problems, all on the tail end of a ludicrous run. It's headed south for a while.
  5. Just to be clear, I don't think TA is the end all be all at all. It is a valuable tool though, and as pertains to the OP, can help you avoid HODL'ing when a potential lower risk reposition is on the table.
  6. Some random thoughts in no particular order.... The quickest path from speculator to long term investor is a crash. HODL'ing in the face of a TA nightmare (for XRP it began to shape up around may 8th) is not wise...minimizing risk is maximizing profit. I was the "idiot" who took out a heroic short the day after it peaked, I was underwater for a few hours but my "tea leaves" told me crash and correction was highly likely. I notice everyone who doesn't believe in TA uses hypothetical traders who are stupid.....why don't we compare ourselves to the top hedge fund guys? Answer, because then we'd have to admit an uncomfortable truth...and this is it. People are predictable, especially when fear and greed are in play. HODL'ing only makes sense if news in the near term is expected...if it is not, reposition. The reason people think that the market will jump the moment they exit, is because people hit their panic point en masse. Only a handful are outside the bell curve with respect to emotional management. We are not the individual snow flakes we imagine....for the most part, especially in financially risky situations, it's almost as if our OODA loop is hive driven. Very few people can actually buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying. It takes discipline. If a person can not or will not learn to understand the technical indicators, then yes, things will be mysterious. If an individual will bother to educate themselves, then a significant amount of confusion can be removed, and in so doing, an advantage can be found. Ask yourself how often "long term investor" is gettin' thrown around right now.....
  7. Can you link to the forum or article that gave you that impression?
  8. I think you are right.....that said....it may not be enough. Not trying to be FUD guy, but SWIFT being the bureaucratically entrenched standard is a giant obstacle. If every great idea bore fruit because it was great, the world would be so different. Ripple to me is like Nikola Tesla (we all know how that ended :/ )....though there is a key difference in the comparison. The thing denied Tesla, which may prove to be the keystone in Ripple's success, is awareness. Though it may (often) seem otherwise, we have never been more intelligent as a global people. We have never at any point in history had so much information, so readily available, to so many. If ever there has been a perfect storm for a financial revolution, it was nothing near as perfect as the situation exists today.
  9. Ripple isn't talking about it, and I hate to be that guy (because hodor is so good at it) but, because ripple is so low key we have to extrapolate their intent by who they gathered (the team) and the size of their target market(s). Hit their web page and check out the individual back grounds.....write it down on a sheet of paper, and remove the fluff...just names, and where they came from and what they did....then wait for the lightbulb. (in other words, yes, I see this so far beyond cross border remittance. That market is the proverbial inch....) So the starting point for estimating eventual value: (Swift yearly total/ XRP float) (1.27 quadrillion / 100bn) = 1270.00 This is a very rudimentary approach, and a gross over simplification, but it gives us a vantage point from which to appreciate the size of the market....which is scientific terms, is fuuuuu ken yewj. The reason this occurred to me is that in their own words, they want banks and FI's to hold "piles of XRP." No bank or FI will hold an instrument, as a store of value, that some dude in a basement with moms credit card could manipulate....so even if I'm wrong, the value post-implementation still has to be very high (to provide stability). ....and this all assumes success...which....I admit.....isn't really very likely. They are up against the behemoth. The old guard and the old money, which has spent the last 100 years making sure that nothing like this could happen, and they are very, very good at that. Time will tell.
  10. You left out the illuminati, but you nailed it. XD All of those factors working in concert produce the parallels between BTC and idling alts.
  11. Read this 3 times.....still doesn't make sense. You asked the following question: To repeat myself, when there is no news, update or press release to fuel the trajectory of an alt, then btc is firmly in control of price action. Presently XRP has no real news, no real updates and no real press releases, ergo, btc firmly in control of price action. So, why would ripple go down in relation to BTC? Because presently XRP has no real news, no real updates and no real press releases, ergo, btc is firmly in control of price action. That means ripple will go down in relation to BTC. So when BTC tanks because of segwit, unless ripple has an X factor in play, ripple will tank too.
  12. Exactly, instead of admitting you're wrong, you responded with "i'm rich." I don't know what it takes to put a person in a place so low that they can't admit they're wrong about some really, really inconsequential, trivial BS but I hope it gets better man, sincerely. I'm sorry for being abrasive, it's just kinda in my nature. Congrats on a killer trade, and just keep HODL'ing, it'll pay off huge in a year or so.
  13. The individuals I know that have done well for themselves, don't respond to correction with their dollar value. If you've really got the money, good on ya, and congrats, but you're not your khakis. and you're still wrong.
  14. Just picking up on the general temperature of this place, I'd say most here will write this off as fud and counter with some type of anecdotal what if. I think you're spot on....in fact, I'm betting money on it. In an easy shakeout I have us @ 2k. Issues @ 1700.....worst case 1100 usd before we turn the corner.....and the alt world will go down kicking, screaming and wondering why. I'll be waiting to scoop up some cheap zerps.
  15. Awesome! Congrats! Now that you're rich perhaps you could afford to pay a little attention........cause unless the following is someone else posting under your account.... .... I'd say that qualifies as a whopper of a misconception...both parts. We will definitely see it go lower as bitcoin goes through this teething phase. In fact, the whole market is gonna drop like a rock here in a few short hours....right after BTC hits somewhere in the neighborhood of 2480usd.
  16. We are currently in a BTC driven uptrend, within a much larger, and very obvious down trend. Don't make fun of my crayons, but this chart should help clear up any misconception.
  17. So you've never noticed any parallels between BTC movement and XRP trends? For BTC pairs, should be no news or update or press release or anything to drive the market, BTC is firmly in control of trajectory.
  18. You got it. 5-10 years if they succeed. That's the catch though, there will never be the meteoric growth absent market domination.
  19. Their potential largest market, divided by the whole float. (this does not take into account ancillary markets, only what swift pay currently handles per year.) If they want institutions to possess large amounts of XRP, it has to be stable, higher prices are inherently stable. At 25.00 a single player could create a 10% swing. At 2500, not so much. Assuming the exponential increase of "communication" (you are familiar with the communication analogy correct?) we could see much higher valuation. This also doesn't take into account the fact that some hedge funds are stocking up on XRP as we speak, meaning that semi large chunks are being removed from the open market.
  20. a unit, token or coin. It's a catch all for a single digital, financial instrument. The altcoin version of a satoshi.
  21. Good catch, I was unclear. Even though it doesn't represent a guaranteed 1bn every month, the amount released, coupled with present market conditions and the size of the current market, exerts enough downward pressure as to be sorely felt. I like XRP long term, I just think it's very long term, and very few of the HODL'ers will make it that far...and despite their team, success is _far_ from a given. Far from likely tbh. It's a long shot, however,should they succeed in their goals: 1200.00 per zerp min.
  22. The point of my happiness example was this: If you read the market, and react accordingly, you make money...while discussing your hypothetical group of inept traders would no doubt be an exercise in great humor, the principle is this: there are tons of indicators that let you know when peaks and dips are presenting. It's not guess work. So yes, you can find a plethora of past market conditions that negate my current assessment, but the fact of the matter they only carry as much weight as they have direct parallels. Your example at .06 has only one: It has to do with XRP. The market conditions, trader base, media footprint and volume (all critical factors) are wildly different. HODLING is a valid strat, not to say it's not. Especially if you can't read the market, or you don't feel like learning (which is why we can pay others to worry about it for us! XD ) But if you really want to maximize your return, you make money in both directions. A sheep can be sheared many times, slaughtered only once. Often I find HODLers are looking for the big kill, while traders are slowly, consistently gaining. While you do hear the odd story of the ETH millionaire or the pink sheet lambo groups, there are a lot more guys just quietly making an extra 2-10K a month. In summation, this fall is not being caused by margin traders, or big money manipulation, whales or some rothschild conspiracy. It's a correction that was coming just as sure as night follows day. Fact: XRP traded over 300% above it's 50SMA for almost 5 months. Fact: XRP value was based on pure speculation Fact: XRP traded at the minimum 100% above the 20 and 30 EMA's for almost 4 months Fact: Ripple is releasing 1billion XRP a month into the market Fact: None of those things say "uptrend." Fact: That kind of price action is unsustainable ergo: Fact: It had to correct However, there is another fact, long term, this is brilliant for HODLers and traders alike. We're about to get another look at some absolutely insane prices.
  23. I agree with the TA side of it, that the bottom *should* be around 2K, but TA doesnt' take into account panic.....which is just setting in. Look at the amount of "why is this happening" posts just on this forum. Investors hate change, and not only were we incredibly, disgustingly over extended across the market, we have segwit looming. My prediction for btc is another look at 1700....I don't know how much money you have in play, but I hope for your sake, if your money is where your mouth is, that you're right. I'm sitting in fiat and enough ETH to keep my ETH and XRP shorts open. I'm insulated and crazy into the green no matter what.
  24. This is not a guess. This is fact. What goes up for no reason, will always go down, for that same reason. The entire market was grossly over extended. You should have opened shorts around the 1st of June. It was plain as day, not a surprise, not a mystery. The correction started after BTC peaked @ 3k. You had 2 more chances to exit green @ 2750 and then @ 2600 a few days later (the reason I'm using BTC prices is that 99% of spikes are lock step in sync with BTC prices.) Use your heads people, or lose your money. As much as you want maybe's, possibly's and somedays to reflect the value of a thing, it won't. This temporary pop was an opportunity to make some serious money before reality set in. Reality is here. I still like XRP in the long term, but short term, we're headed back to realistic levels that reflect the actual present value, not the 3 years down the road potential value. *I'm not a financial advisor, don't be dumb, don't invest money you can't lose blah blah blah*
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