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ManBearPig

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  1. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Chookstar in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I don’t have liquid fiat to invest for about another month but I would be Dollar Cost Averaging at these prices on BTC if I could. 

    I also would want to accumulate some newer generation alts to hold for five+ years (ie. WOO, CELL, RVP, some defi).
    I’ve sold off on my XRP to get my investment back and a little profit which is about 1/3 of my ownership but now intend to hold the rest.
    Short term pain for long term gains.
  2. Thanks
    ManBearPig reacted to Plikk in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Dominance to about 52-60% is a very probable outcome for the coming months. Alt season is over for now, until we make a second leg down which I expect to go as low as a 12% dominance.
     
     

  3. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Plikk in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I don’t have liquid fiat to invest for about another month but I would be Dollar Cost Averaging at these prices on BTC if I could. 

    I also would want to accumulate some newer generation alts to hold for five+ years (ie. WOO, CELL, RVP, some defi).
    I’ve sold off on my XRP to get my investment back and a little profit which is about 1/3 of my ownership but now intend to hold the rest.
    Short term pain for long term gains.
  4. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to Molten in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Short term chart, BTC working through a likely continuation pattern.  A break below $30k will put BTC in danger of breaking the massive head and shoulders neckline and that would be disastrous IMO.  30k needs to hold.
  5. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to Julian_Williams in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Interesting analysis worth a watch
     
  6. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to Nat99 in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Started re-reading the blog, which, back then in early 2019 when @Eric123started it, I discarded as BS. Should've listened.
    Above quote is a good reminder of what's to come. 2021 bullrun might look more like 2013, rather then 2017.
    Bobby Lee had a good comment about the top of a cycle: it's not when the big FUD guns come out that the top is in, but when the price doubles in 1-3 days. So, for this year it would mean that price could double from 150k to 300k in 3-4 days with 35k-50k candles per day. Sounds about right, @Eric123?
     
  7. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to Plikk in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I am not scared, eventhough everyone that has sold is trying as hard as they can to shake everyone else out as well. I am buying as much as I can at these prices. I personally expect a few months of boring upside consolidation and then a final rally at year’s end. Then I will take most of my profits, certainly not now. 
     
    Crypto had seen mid cycle sell-offs in every cycle. In 2017 we had a mild one(also due to China FUD) and in 2013 it was a prolonged and that tough one. It always ended up in a final blow-off top at year’s end. Therefore I am as accumulating as much as possible, I belief it will pay off handsomely. Made this post for the people that are buying and still care about crypto, not interested to get into any more discussions or debates  
    Good luck all!

  8. Thanks
    ManBearPig reacted to Parabolic in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    That doesn't look like cat food, that's not the manbearpig i know 🤡
  9. Haha
    ManBearPig got a reaction from xrp_is_love_xrp_is_life in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I’ve had to stomach some major losses over the last couple months but it’s not bad in comparison to Montezumas revenge coming back from Mexico so the theme rolls on. But now that the stomach has settled and I can finally look at my Blockfolio and budget myself a poolside fine Italian dinner.
     

  10. Haha
    ManBearPig got a reaction from DannyRipple in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I’ve had to stomach some major losses over the last couple months but it’s not bad in comparison to Montezumas revenge coming back from Mexico so the theme rolls on. But now that the stomach has settled and I can finally look at my Blockfolio and budget myself a poolside fine Italian dinner.
     

  11. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to Plikk in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    For now, BTC held the important 34-35k level as I expected and hoped for. As long as these levels hold, chances increase the bottom is definitely in and we can make our moves out of here. Which could take a while, hence it’s called a recovery.
    The level of pessimism and fear is immense past couple of days. It’s not easy coming here and predict outcomes based on experience in charts and TA, as it often get’s you a lot of resistance due to ignorance. Back in 2020 when BTC dominance was around 70%, I called for alt season to start end of march/beginning of april with a dominance going lower than 50%. Almost no one believed me, as BTC was on fire and alts lagged significantly back then. Well eventually it started exactly at the 1st of april... But it wasn’t easy following my own path while almost everyone else disagrees with you. 
    Now the same happens again, I get a lot of resistance for pointing out we are IMO at or near the bottom. But people have either sold, are in panic/fear or have PTS from the previous bearmarket. Emotions take over their thought proces, no more no less. It’s easy shouting the bullmarket is over after a 50+% drop, it’s easy to shout BTC is king when alts sit idle for months while BTC goes parabolic, it’s easy saying XRP will never go above a dollar again when it hasn’t in years… But it’s not how the market played out.
    Reading charts and predicting what will happen has zero to do with gambling as some have claimed here, it is the exact opposite. You learn to turn off your emotions so you can make a balanced and level-headed approach to the market situation. That’s all I try to do. Until now I have been pretty spot on since 2020, but no one is flawless and making mistakes is important to learn and develop your skills. Maybe this time i’m wrong, only time will tell but I will not let my charting be influenced by others or emotions, period.
    I agree that these are tense times as BTC could still drop lower. If it does drop lower than ~30k without a major bounce, then for me, I have no clue what will happen next as my analysis will then have failed me. Which is always a possibility. Therefore I have a plan B, which is simply enjoying my recent profit takes, accumulate through staking and wait until the next cycle completes. Always have multiple plans for different scenario’s, so the market can’t catch you off-guard or make you lose your mind. 
    Just my opinion anyways, I wish everyone good luck no matter which path you take. May crypto serve you well  
     
     
  12. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to jMusic in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Zoom out and look at the historical chart...we are right on track according to the S2F model.
    You don't need FUD or Hopium, just clarity and logic.

  13. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Julian_Williams in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I sold off about 30% of my xrp I was holding for three years. 
    BTC looks like it wants to gain dominance back whether it bounces, or bleeds less slower than alts.
    If we already entered the bear market it will redefine how we look at market cycles going forward. No proper blow of top and no kind of relief rally for this rapid, severe correction. 2018 even had glimmers off some hope  as it chopped upwards but this is the Niagara Falls of dumps so far.
    If there ever was a time for the market to do the opposite of sentiment and break to the upside, it has its opportunity to do so.
  14. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Julian_Williams in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    It’s all speculative. 5X is a good spot to take initial profits so that’s where the 20% comes in. ADA has already corrected 40% off its all time high so if this really was the top then it has 40% left to the downside to make the full 80% correction per your example.
    Statistically and historically, most people cannot time the market, the only thing you can control is how much time you spend in the market.
    The most important driver still remains bitcoin, and I can’t say with certainty where it is going over the next few months, I feel a lot more confident saying where it will go in the long term.
     
     
  15. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to xrp_sea in Charting the course of XRP   
    Folks, this is a classic shakeout. It's turning out to be a bit deeper than I expected though. But the bull run is alive and well, trust me. I've been in crypto for almost 9 year now. This will turn out to be a minor correction on the larger bull run chart. Zoom in on the previous bull runs. They never went straight up. Buy low and sell sell high. It sounds so simple, yet so many people do just the opposite. It's because of times like these that cause people to make decisions based on their emotions. Stay strong my friends. 
  16. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Ahchai in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Don’t check the Blockfolio all that much right now. 2017 was about watching it go down and eating away at most of the initial investment but it was something that could be afforded to lose. 2021 is about watching significant profits go up and then watching half of it vanish in a day. 🤮 
    In retrospect, the 2017 version of myself would still be happy with where I am at even after the crash, but the 2021 version of myself is greedier while having an immense fear of losing additional profits.  Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
    Fundamentally Bitcoin is as strong as ever, my outlook on the good alt coins out there with use cases is more optimistic in the long run than before this bull market, and this shakeout hopefully gets the market under control with all the shit coins and meme coins floating about.
    My brain is telling me that this could be a bear market summer (not to be outdone by a potential double top in the fall) but my gut is telling me to to just HODL and pretend like the money doesn’t exist.  Or maybe it’s that second chilli dog I ate, I thought it tasted a little funny.
  17. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Baka in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Don’t check the Blockfolio all that much right now. 2017 was about watching it go down and eating away at most of the initial investment but it was something that could be afforded to lose. 2021 is about watching significant profits go up and then watching half of it vanish in a day. 🤮 
    In retrospect, the 2017 version of myself would still be happy with where I am at even after the crash, but the 2021 version of myself is greedier while having an immense fear of losing additional profits.  Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
    Fundamentally Bitcoin is as strong as ever, my outlook on the good alt coins out there with use cases is more optimistic in the long run than before this bull market, and this shakeout hopefully gets the market under control with all the shit coins and meme coins floating about.
    My brain is telling me that this could be a bear market summer (not to be outdone by a potential double top in the fall) but my gut is telling me to to just HODL and pretend like the money doesn’t exist.  Or maybe it’s that second chilli dog I ate, I thought it tasted a little funny.
  18. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Julian_Williams in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Sell 20% ADA, and HODL the rest on the house even if it’s another four years. Projects being launched are right around the corner and the support ecosystem will be very active. People will be envious at the prices you got in at. 
     
  19. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to xrp-nuke in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Yeah, it just most here got into ADA before it even was 0.10, I presume. As of myself I bought at 0.25 and sold at 1.89, as I think it already overheated, x7.3 times was more than enough for me.
    Like it went almost x100, and almost x3 from 2017 ATH, for me its more than enough to press sell button, I wanted to do it at between 2.25-2.50 but than, risk imho was not worth that.
    Now ADA converted into USDC on interest account until next iterration and not fact they go to ADA again 😁
    So based just on simple data, I think in my case taking just 20% was too small, in case of nowaday, well depends on entrypoint.
    Well, its not easy to press sell button anyway, but profit is profit.
     
  20. Like
    ManBearPig reacted to Julian_Williams in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I have to say the comments this evening remind me of the sorts of remarks people were making in March 2020.  There was talk of XRP going to .6 and then to .2 and maybe vanishing all together.  
    Just now I have quite good profits, my DCA is 35cents.  I have fear of losing what remains of those profits.  This money would be important for carrying me through the next four years of a crypto winter.
    Yes I do not like the vibes...but when I watch the video below by Alessio he tells me how to recognise a bear market starting.  I trust his knowledge, and at the moment we have not seen his criteria met.   
    If I capitulate I would sell my  ADA first because it is at about x five right now.  I cannot see myself selling any XRP right now because:
    The SEC case looks to be going Ripple's way and maybe close to settlement BTC seems to be solid and ready to consolidate at this price This feels like the bottom of a dip The institutions seem to be still interested in BTC Good Luck everybody.
     
  21. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from DannyRipple in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Don’t check the Blockfolio all that much right now. 2017 was about watching it go down and eating away at most of the initial investment but it was something that could be afforded to lose. 2021 is about watching significant profits go up and then watching half of it vanish in a day. 🤮 
    In retrospect, the 2017 version of myself would still be happy with where I am at even after the crash, but the 2021 version of myself is greedier while having an immense fear of losing additional profits.  Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
    Fundamentally Bitcoin is as strong as ever, my outlook on the good alt coins out there with use cases is more optimistic in the long run than before this bull market, and this shakeout hopefully gets the market under control with all the shit coins and meme coins floating about.
    My brain is telling me that this could be a bear market summer (not to be outdone by a potential double top in the fall) but my gut is telling me to to just HODL and pretend like the money doesn’t exist.  Or maybe it’s that second chilli dog I ate, I thought it tasted a little funny.
  22. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Julian_Williams in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Don’t check the Blockfolio all that much right now. 2017 was about watching it go down and eating away at most of the initial investment but it was something that could be afforded to lose. 2021 is about watching significant profits go up and then watching half of it vanish in a day. 🤮 
    In retrospect, the 2017 version of myself would still be happy with where I am at even after the crash, but the 2021 version of myself is greedier while having an immense fear of losing additional profits.  Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
    Fundamentally Bitcoin is as strong as ever, my outlook on the good alt coins out there with use cases is more optimistic in the long run than before this bull market, and this shakeout hopefully gets the market under control with all the shit coins and meme coins floating about.
    My brain is telling me that this could be a bear market summer (not to be outdone by a potential double top in the fall) but my gut is telling me to to just HODL and pretend like the money doesn’t exist.  Or maybe it’s that second chilli dog I ate, I thought it tasted a little funny.
  23. Like
    ManBearPig got a reaction from Dionisus in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    Don’t check the Blockfolio all that much right now. 2017 was about watching it go down and eating away at most of the initial investment but it was something that could be afforded to lose. 2021 is about watching significant profits go up and then watching half of it vanish in a day. 🤮 
    In retrospect, the 2017 version of myself would still be happy with where I am at even after the crash, but the 2021 version of myself is greedier while having an immense fear of losing additional profits.  Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
    Fundamentally Bitcoin is as strong as ever, my outlook on the good alt coins out there with use cases is more optimistic in the long run than before this bull market, and this shakeout hopefully gets the market under control with all the shit coins and meme coins floating about.
    My brain is telling me that this could be a bear market summer (not to be outdone by a potential double top in the fall) but my gut is telling me to to just HODL and pretend like the money doesn’t exist.  Or maybe it’s that second chilli dog I ate, I thought it tasted a little funny.
  24. Haha
    ManBearPig got a reaction from CaptainCorningware in Charting the course of XRP   
    It’s a deal but you have to offer me Employment. McDonald’s has doubled down and will offer half off on a meal for every shift, but willing to entertain open offers.
  25. Haha
    ManBearPig got a reaction from retep in Charting the course of XRP   
    It’s a deal but you have to offer me Employment. McDonald’s has doubled down and will offer half off on a meal for every shift, but willing to entertain open offers.
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