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Everything posted by TraderDave

  1. Looks like initial target of 7400 is in session. Seems dip was a support test. Still travelling bullish channel.
  2. Nice bull trap. It seems we are officially in a trend reversal. ~6534 is the next bear target.
  3. We're now reaching a boiling point in a few hours, where I'm anticipating a jump to at least 7400 to 7800 between 1:00 AM - 5:00 AM Pacific time. I expect steam to begin blowing at around 3:00 AM. There's a scenario of similarly crumbling to the downside, but I don't see this as the likely outcome. Once people catch on to the event's unfolding, and the possible implications (bull season), there can be a chain reaction which unfolds where 1) Shorts begin rushing to close their position, 2) Short stop-losses/ liquidation points are reached, 3) Hysteria to buy bitcoin, which I could see pushing the price to 8600 territory or higher (in a matter of hours). Regardless, a very significant event will unfold in less than 2 days to mark the month's closing -- great downside or great upside. I am literally banking on the latter.
  4. Excuse some of the misaligned trendlines, however, I just want to point out we're literally kissing the final resistance line: I expect we'll see one of the greatest breakouts in bitcoin history today. The opposite would be a dive straight into oblivion (which i don't see happening). I am genuinely counting a jump to 8k - 10k territory. I know that sounds outrageous. But considering the monthly close is coming, this seems like the perfect moment.
  5. Exhibit G: Another look at the weekly chart reveals three green candle sticks. If we can close the price at or above our current level, ladies and gentleman, prepare for take off: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp
  6. Reasons why I believe we are in the dawn of a bull run:
  7. Exhibit A: Looking at the charts, we can see how this could be considered a "bottom". I) The bottom corresponds to the "low" before the great run to ~20k. II): Before we can call a bottom, one always has to wait for the "second" bottom, which has to be higher than the first. The first bottom was hit the week of June 16th @ 5750, the second, the week of August 12th @ 5880. This is precisely what we see happening here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/wIFVUdzF-Bitcoin-Bull-Is-Here-Part-1/ III) This "bottom" corresponds to the second lowest, long-term bull channels -- precisely at the .786 fibonnaci retracement level. IV) The reverse head and shoulders resulting in the jump to 8491 marked the real trend reversal to the upside. Also of interest: the trading pattern in this region was bullish, travelling through the same bull channels, which we are now re-entering. Exhibit B: The Weekly MACD is literally showing signs of green, which is literally a buy signal: Exhibit C :We are literally trading above the yellow weekly EMA. If the price climbs above the pink, the yellow EMA will pierce the pink EMA to the upside. Go check and see what happens when the daily or hourly crosses to the upside/downside. Exhibit D : Remember the bitcoin whale crushed after he took a substantial margin position? Allow me to refresh your memory: https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/okex-460-million-bitcoin-long-liquidated-but-not-filled-crypto-has-a-new-elephant-in-the-room/ Why would a whale make such a bad call? Again, at that point, we were trading above the pink EMA, it is my belief he assumed the weekly EMAs would cross, and thus the price would not fall further. Further, the reverse head and shoulders (trend reversal) would have provided them with reason to believe a trend to the upside was now in session. Exhibit E: Record-breaking "shorts" have provided the necessary fuel to explode through any and all resistance levels. The April 12th run to the ~9900k price point was fueled significantly through short closure/liquidation. Exhibit F: Bitcoin dominance in the past few weeks has increased. I'm sure you, XRP holders have become well-aware of this. Essentially, all of the alt-coins have been converted to Bitcoin. Two possible explanations: 1) Expected bitcoin decline, and thus, corresponding btc/alt coin value. 2) Expected bitcoin rise (before alt-coin pump), and thus a shift to what will become the higher value asset. This is precisely what happened the week of June 16th -- when I see the reversal to the upside as having occurred. Lastly, all of the indicators and tools have shifted in the past few weeks to beyond "oversold" conditions. The final confirmation will come when we make a higher high (which I anticipate will occur in this next pump to 9k territory), followed by a second higher low. Time will tell.
  8. Here's a quick link to the chart I made, I'll be posting other material to support my hypothesis (that we've entered the bull market). https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/26561-btc-price-analysis/?page=3
  9. This is part 1 of a few charts I'll be creating, simply providing a broad overview of bitcoin's trend reversal/ bull market entry, or what I like to call "Exhibit A": https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/wIFVUdzF-Bitcoin-Bull-Is-Here-Part-1/
  10. It's been over for a few weeks. I'll be posting a chart later to prove it.
  11. I just noticed something which confirms some earlier suspicions I'd been having. I had not dismissed the possibility Bitcoin had actually bottomed out a few weeks ago, and I suspected this recent drop could make the "double bottom". However, I just noticed it has been quietly travelling a bullish channel this entire time. I'll post a chart in a few hours. This is actually very exciting.
  12. We are currently in a fight between downside/upside resistance points. The red line above indicates a previously established, long-term bullish channel at ~6880. Bulls are hoping to get a break above 6756, and above 6880 to use this line as support, but may also be a bouncing point to the downside. I really doubt bulls would fail to capitalize on the opportunity to destroy all the open short positions. It's a bomb waiting to ignite once a threshold is reached -- it would become a race to who closes their shorts first, spiraling out of control to the upside. However, a break below this bull channel would make 6384 the next bear target. Consider the market's simultaneous wave of fear, and this would make 5500 a very near-term possibility. Yes, 5500 would absolutely be consistent with the retracement necessary for a possible overall trend shift. But with record number of shorts, bringing the price point down to that level would be incredibly "short" lived. Considering how difficult 6k has been to break for prolonged periods. Whether we're treading a falling wedge or symmetrical triangle, the fuel from short closure/liquidation would be enough to break us through it. Bearish scenario: a break below 6700 would break the bullish channel, send the price to 6600, and with shifting bear sentiment, 6384 would mark the next real possible bounce. Bulls concede their control, and we land in 5k territory. Bullish scenario: we break 6780, land on 6850, protect 6850, and the head and shoulders pattern is invalidated, while the cup formation to 7400 retaining validity. A break through 6900 would instantly send the price to 7400 - 7700, where two possibilities can unfold after re-testing ~7000: 1) We break through 7000 again, the overall downtrend continues, and we head directly into 5k territory. A drop similar to the one we saw from 8k. Forget a 6k bounce. 2) We bounce of 7000, and head directly into 8600 to mark the first higher high. The weekly MACD turns green, and continues turning green for the ensuing weeks. The greatest bear trap of all time. A bull run is here.
  13. Reopened position with safe stop loss. I do suspect a jump to the upside, but either scenario at play: great fall or great rise which will only be exarcebated by the markets over reaction. I do believe we'll see 7k today.
  14. Even at the risk of missing out on an epic breakout, there's too much resistance, I'm taking my profit. Closing position.
  15. There's a huge battle underway. Big players attempting to protect their positions. 60+ visible Bitcoin wall in coimbase. However, the second that's broken it'll send a wave of fear and short closures. I wouldn't be surprised with a shot straight to 7700 if bulls win.
  16. We have a few more clever bears beginning to close their shorts. I'd be poopping my pants too.
  17. All of the EMA lines are now set up for a big breakout before the day's/ weekly close, T-minus 3 hours. This is the exciting part.
  18. The cups' target is beyond 7k, which would put us above the yellow weekly EMA and signal a bull run. With the yellow EMA set to pierce the pink, it would correspond with a break across all major downside resistance. If we break through, this would bring 11k to 15k into play.
  19. Bulls attacked 6750, but fell short at 6740. They just finished retesting the bottom of their bull channel, with a 6-hour chart death cross setup to taunt bears into attacking. There was a lackluster response. The 2-hour chart reveals a perfect cup formation so we will be seeing 6780 today. On mobile and can't provide images.
  20. If this plays out, and we reach 7k + in the next 2 days, we will need to hold a memorial for all the 6k short-sellers, begging to give away their coins at a possible bottom.
  21. Bulls touched the bottom of their channel, and made a quick recovery. The game plan seems obvious now. Bears would have had to penetrate two resistance lines, which seems unlikely in bull territory. Every single move in this region has been a bear trap. As bulls are sustaining their support, I have once again opened a new position at 6640. I expected an attack to 6750 in less than 3 hours, and perhaps settling above 6780. I'll play this one out for a few more days as tomorrow marks the weekly close, and the yellow EMA for the weekly has flat-lined. I suspect the goal will be to turn it into an uptrend within the next week or two, marking a possible bull run.
  22. Things are looking very grim for Team Bull. Currently getting rejected below the required threshhold: Perhaps they can get a real bounce off 6450.
  23. If bulls are unable to stay above 6640, expect a decline to 6370, as it'll mark a loss of their support. As I stated before, I doubt they'll try to catch a falling knife. Head and Shoulders to 5k territory remains at play -- and gaining more validation by the hour.
  24. In the charts, there's a daily candle that gets gets "saved" at closing, which occurs at 12:00 AM UTC Time. As I mentioned before, we needed a close above the target price of approximately 6780. As we did not achieve that, and instead, left behind various rejection "wicks" -- it indicated very strong resistance bulls were unable to penetrate. They made a last ditch-attempt after closing, and were similarly rejected. However, this was the second rejection -- referred to as a "double top"-- which is indicative of a failed attempt, and thus, a consequential downtrend or price drop to re-test supports -- what I referred to as a "fallout", as in a nuclear fallout ;-), not necessarily proper terminology.
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