Jump to content

JoelMcD

Member
  • Posts

    44
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to 2ndtimearound in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Eh? How does debt magically convert to credit? Debt forgiveness is one thing, but now you've assigned a debt as a credit (crediting all XRP holders).  Let me spell this out: you can not magic debt (which can ONLY be paid with future labour) into credit (money that can be spent today).  What is this alchemy?! So the deeper in debt the world is, the richer XRP holders become?! Sign me up to this magic.
  2. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to Trendkill in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Oh....ok.....thanks. Now I can just go about my business for another year and not have to worry about anything.  Thanks for the strange and random off topic information.
  3. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to 2ndtimearound in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Then why is the OP saying XRP's marketcap must equal the amount of debt currently owed?  I get the idea of "we will write your debt off if you buy XRP" - but also realise that the marketcap couldn't be liquidated to equal the debt they originally owed, so their creditors would never be paid back. 
  4. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to XRPboi in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Interesting topic, especially considering the recent news about Brazil adopting the IMF's crypto guidelines and selling off a large portion of their US dollar reserves (first time they've done this in over 10 years). The articles also mention the benefit Brazil receives by getting to list crypto on their (central banks) books as "property". 
    Let's also not forget the overall goal for ILP - the team has been very vocal about their target addressable market size being all the money in the world. 
    With the ongoing trade wars, all the meetings between central banks and Ripple, and the IMF championing Ripple for years now, I don't see this as being far-fetched at all.
    But to be fair, I also thought the bear was an insider and that I'd be stupid rich at the end of 2018. 
  5. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to WarChest in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    I think that he was suggesting that each country would have all debt written off on the pre-curser that they all collectively buy enough XRP to push it's price to value, so their debt is now zero except for the fiat that they borrow ( if need be ) to  use to push up this finite assets price.
     
  6. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to Julian_Williams in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    I don't altogether get it.  My perspective is that if the value of XRP goes up to 100 dollars there will be more wealth in the world (because price is set by demand for the last purchase of XRP on exchanges).  That wealth can be used to buy debt.  But if you flood the market with 1 billion XRP the price of XRP would drop on exchanges, so the wealth is not really there.
    I cannot see that the IMF, if they were owners of 50 billion XRP worth 100 dollars each, would simply buy a countries debt off.  They would use the asset sparingly, providing enough relief (with strings) to stop a country going over the edge and defaulting .
  7. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to 2ndtimearound in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Then the big question obviously is - what would make XRP worth $100 or the required $595 in the first place? And as you say, even if you have XRP at $595, this is simply the highest asking price on exchanges...no marketcap can ever be realised and turned into liquid cash.    They're just as likely to do what they've always done until they can't: QE.
  8. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to KaaKaRmA in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Let’s first figure out the math on how to reach $.589. 
  9. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from Paradigm in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Well, to be fair I only said 'maybe'
    I'm less worried about the bear, and more focused on the possibility that addressing global debt might increase the value of XRP. Every time new facts come to light I find myself looking back over past announcements / theories / suggestions to see if it sheds new light on where all this might be going. The recent IMF and BoE talk of the need for change and the idea of a common digital bridging asset got me thinking... why would nations 'buy in'?.... where would the money come from?... where's the fair exchange of value for giving up sovereign reserves?
  10. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from JACKRAUL555 in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Recent discussion about bridging CBDCs and the looming global debt crisis got me thinking. How do you shock the global economy out of a descending spiral of high debt and low (or negative) interest rates that has seen us circling the drain for the past decade?
    What if XRP is being considered not just as a (the?) global bridge digital asset, but also as a way to address the astronomical, and ever-increasing, cost of global debt? What if, in exchange for nations giving up a portion of their sovereign reserves, as required to create a centralised/IMF global reserve of XRP, those same nations were given the chance to forgive their sovereign debt?
    If this were the case, you wouldn't calculate potential XRP value based on transaction flows, but on the realised value of debt forgiven. So I ran the numbers... assuming all 100 billion XRP are available to the market (now we know this isn't strictly true, but the alternative only pushes the $/XRP higher) and using today's Global Debt Clock figure of $59,507,840,000,000 ($59.5 trillion), we come out with a figure of $595 per XRP. Sure, it's a little more than the bear's prophetic $589+ but it's awful close, and besides, that was a year ago and the debt increases daily.
     
    What if this was the hint all along?... What if?
     
    #xrpthebridge
    https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock
  11. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from XRPboi in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Haha, I'm not trying to enrage anyone, though maybe the bear reference in the topic/header was a bit inflammatory  
    I'd just ask people to keep an open mind as to where all this could possibly lead. I look back on what got me into XRP years ago (I stumbled across it in 2015 but didn't invest until late 2017), and it was first and foremost the potential of the problems it could solve (both locally and at a global scale) that got my attention. Since then it's been nothing but slow methodical progress in nailing the use case month after month for Ripple and all the others now in the ecosystem (R3, Temenos, Monegram, Central banks, commercial banks, etc). It might feel sometimes like all this is for nothing, and it'll never succeed, but that's the nature of delivering complex change with such a broad group of stakeholders and so many interconnected systems. I should know, I've been delivering technology programs with governments for the past 18 years... it ain't easy.
  12. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from JACKRAUL555 in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Fair point. I suppose everything has to start somewhere. There's the MXN/PHP/USD corridors in play already, and soon XRP will underpin the world's second largest non-bank money transfer company's operations. Sure, it's small change compared to the big picture, but it feels a decent start to me.
    I'm not hung up on the figure so much, nor do I kneel at the alter of BG123, but I thought it was interesting when I ran those numbers that it came out so close.
    Do I think we have a global debt problem?... yes
    Do I think the IMF and central banks want to solve it?... yes, or at the very least contain it
    Do I think they'd consider adopting an appreciable asset, that doesn't currently sit on any nation's balance sheet, and could be allocated then increased in value to repay debt, at the same time as providing liquidity to the cross-border payments market and promoting financial inclusion (through low cost financial services)... yes, I sure do.
     
  13. Haha
    JoelMcD got a reaction from RecentChange in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Recent discussion about bridging CBDCs and the looming global debt crisis got me thinking. How do you shock the global economy out of a descending spiral of high debt and low (or negative) interest rates that has seen us circling the drain for the past decade?
    What if XRP is being considered not just as a (the?) global bridge digital asset, but also as a way to address the astronomical, and ever-increasing, cost of global debt? What if, in exchange for nations giving up a portion of their sovereign reserves, as required to create a centralised/IMF global reserve of XRP, those same nations were given the chance to forgive their sovereign debt?
    If this were the case, you wouldn't calculate potential XRP value based on transaction flows, but on the realised value of debt forgiven. So I ran the numbers... assuming all 100 billion XRP are available to the market (now we know this isn't strictly true, but the alternative only pushes the $/XRP higher) and using today's Global Debt Clock figure of $59,507,840,000,000 ($59.5 trillion), we come out with a figure of $595 per XRP. Sure, it's a little more than the bear's prophetic $589+ but it's awful close, and besides, that was a year ago and the debt increases daily.
     
    What if this was the hint all along?... What if?
     
    #xrpthebridge
    https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock
  14. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from Roaring_Twenties in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    I have to admit that made me laugh... not that there's anything funny about mental health 
    It isn't the number that intrigues me, but the possibility of change.
  15. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from Paradigm in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Fun? Far fetched?... It certainly is.
    Am I mortgaging the house to 'go all in' for the opportunity... no, not a chance. Though I will be listening carefully to the language used by the IMF, BoE, ECB and others over the next 6-12 months, and taking note of who's sitting at the table.
  16. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from XRPboi in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Fair point. I suppose everything has to start somewhere. There's the MXN/PHP/USD corridors in play already, and soon XRP will underpin the world's second largest non-bank money transfer company's operations. Sure, it's small change compared to the big picture, but it feels a decent start to me.
    I'm not hung up on the figure so much, nor do I kneel at the alter of BG123, but I thought it was interesting when I ran those numbers that it came out so close.
    Do I think we have a global debt problem?... yes
    Do I think the IMF and central banks want to solve it?... yes, or at the very least contain it
    Do I think they'd consider adopting an appreciable asset, that doesn't currently sit on any nation's balance sheet, and could be allocated then increased in value to repay debt, at the same time as providing liquidity to the cross-border payments market and promoting financial inclusion (through low cost financial services)... yes, I sure do.
     
  17. Like
    JoelMcD got a reaction from AsYouWere in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    I agree, and said as much in another thread back in February. I think each central bank will have their own CBDC, and these will need to be bridged for the purpose of global remittance and trade. The IMF has already volunteered to take care of the bridging, so they will likely hold the bridge asset (XRP or otherwise).
  18. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to AlejoMoreno in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Agreed. We say XRP is decentralized but in the eyes of a Central Bank, that does not matter, and they are not going to let their system and power depend on Ripple to put it in simple terms.
  19. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to Julian_Williams in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    CBDCs will be stable coins backed by their national banks, which will not advance the cause of not using the dollar or Euro as an international reserve currency.  The Triffin paradox does not go away.  They will need a bridging asset without counter-party, and that will have to be politically neutral.  So all roads lead to XRP or a clone of XRP set up by an independent international committee. 
    The international bridging asset becomes the currency because its value is not backed by an national central bank and is not fixed to any one countries exchange rate.  The other option is perhaps Libra, because Libra is fixed to a basket of currencies.  But Libra is a half way house and a very messy solution compared to XRP
    If Ripple donated their remaining 40 - 60 billion XRP to an international body then XRP would be sitting pretty as the obvious candidate to be the international bridging asset and (it follows) currency
  20. Like
  21. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to Plikk in Principles before Profits   
    Always the best time to cash our when the price is at it’s lowest 2-year point while having way better fundamentals it ever had. 

  22. Haha
    JoelMcD reacted to damascus1986 in Principles before Profits   
    unless you identify as a airplane you don't need to announce your take off.
  23. Like
    JoelMcD reacted to Julian_Williams in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    perhaps mentioning the bear devalued the underlying message which is far fetched but interesting and worthy of a discussion.
  24. Thanks
    JoelMcD got a reaction from Julian_Williams in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    Haha, I'm not trying to enrage anyone, though maybe the bear reference in the topic/header was a bit inflammatory  
    I'd just ask people to keep an open mind as to where all this could possibly lead. I look back on what got me into XRP years ago (I stumbled across it in 2015 but didn't invest until late 2017), and it was first and foremost the potential of the problems it could solve (both locally and at a global scale) that got my attention. Since then it's been nothing but slow methodical progress in nailing the use case month after month for Ripple and all the others now in the ecosystem (R3, Temenos, Monegram, Central banks, commercial banks, etc). It might feel sometimes like all this is for nothing, and it'll never succeed, but that's the nature of delivering complex change with such a broad group of stakeholders and so many interconnected systems. I should know, I've been delivering technology programs with governments for the past 18 years... it ain't easy.
  25. Thanks
    JoelMcD got a reaction from Julian_Williams in Maybe (just maybe) there was some science behind $589+ after all   
    I'm with you on that one. Armageddon is out of the question, and as crypto is a high risk asset class it will struggle like everything else if the markets head south and there's a flight to 'safety'.
    What I think we will see, however, is more national economies slipping into recession over the next 2-3 quarters with some contagion throughout Europe in particular, and continued downward pressure on interest rates as nations try to kick-start local economic growth. The system is not designed to work with negative interest rates. Something will need to change.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.