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Everything posted by JoelMcD

  1. I see anything that improves interoperability as a good thing. In this case, you'd be making it easier for smart contracts, which will underpin stock trades, derivatives, etc, to operate on their ledger of choice (Ethereum, cardano, hedera, whatever) and still take advantage of XRPL for settlement.
  2. Makes good sense. Reading the suggestion reminds me of the engineer's perspective when observing a glass half-filled with water... the cup is twice as big as it needs to be.
  3. Sounds promising. I saw an IT News article today confirming the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA, central bank) is now running TCS BaNCS alongside it's New Payment Platform (NPP, which handles domestic real-time payments). Work on this began in 2015. CIO says job done, we're ready to go. https://www.itnews.com.au/news/rba-cio-declares-new-core-live-retires-mainframe-531427 Connecting the dots... the RBA now has access to liquidity on demand and real-time cross-border settlement via BaNCS and can then handle the 'last mile' via NPP.
  4. I agree it's investors and market makers that drive a lot of the current utility. Fast forward 3, 5, 10 years... I see greatly increased, and sustainable, demand coming from Central banks, commercial banks, and other financial services providers. I see XRP flowing around the world all day, every day, with a volume orders of magnitude higher than present. In this scenario there's far less dependency on investors to help set market value.
  5. Sure, war is a great driver of economic activity... until someone loses. Never mind the cost of human life on both sides and the collateral damage to other nations drawn into the conflict, societal values and the environment. War is a zero-sum game, I just don't see it fitting the level playing field narrative we keep hearing. Bonkers? Maybe. It sure stretches the imagination.
  6. I wasn't thinking the funds come from investors necessarily. Sure, some of it would, but I think most of the funds would come from increased utility-driven demand - i.e adoption throughout global finance and trade. I see it working hand-in-glove... utility increases XRP value, and vice versa, making it a virtuous cycle.
  7. If it happens, and I admit it's a BIG if, I suppose the allocation of XRP to nations could be at a low unit price, even if it were for a future claim against the escrow. Time would then pass and XRP usage for remittance and trade would increase organically as it's the fastest/cheapest option available (money moves like water flows, along the path of least resistance) and so increases the value of XRP. The IMF might speed up this value creation process by playing some form of market maker role and stepping the price up alongside the organic demand. Nations could then realise the XRP value increase and sell it into the market, then use the profit to meet their debt obligations with no real impact on their sovereign currency. The $595 figure is a crude calculation, and would suggest all debt to be paid in one go, which would never happen. What's more interesting for me, is the idea that XRP might somehow play a role in addressing not just one (improving financial inclusion) but two global finance imperatives (spiralling sovereign debt).
  8. Congrats on your first post Dave! I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here. If it's the 'using tokens that represent central bank currencies' line then that's right and generally understood. As XRP can be exchanged for local currencies (USD, GBP, AUD, etc) which happen to be issued by their respective central banks, it can be said today that the tokens represent central bank currencies. CBDCs are a little different, as they are central bank digital currencies. I'm not sure any are live just yet but there's lots of talk of central banks creating these as a digital (and price-stable) alternative to cash within their economies. The opportunity for XRP then, would be as a medium of exchange between the various CBDCs.
  9. 2 years ago it was in your IRA, 1 week ago you were 'long-term all the way'... but today you're out. We'll miss you Bruhne, thanks for everything
  10. I agree, and said as much in another thread back in February. I think each central bank will have their own CBDC, and these will need to be bridged for the purpose of global remittance and trade. The IMF has already volunteered to take care of the bridging, so they will likely hold the bridge asset (XRP or otherwise).
  11. I have to admit that made me laugh... not that there's anything funny about mental health It isn't the number that intrigues me, but the possibility of change.
  12. Haha, I'm not trying to enrage anyone, though maybe the bear reference in the topic/header was a bit inflammatory I'd just ask people to keep an open mind as to where all this could possibly lead. I look back on what got me into XRP years ago (I stumbled across it in 2015 but didn't invest until late 2017), and it was first and foremost the potential of the problems it could solve (both locally and at a global scale) that got my attention. Since then it's been nothing but slow methodical progress in nailing the use case month after month for Ripple and all the others now in the ecosystem (R3, Temenos, Monegram, Central banks, commercial banks, etc). It might feel sometimes like all this is for nothing, and it'll never succeed, but that's the nature of delivering complex change with such a broad group of stakeholders and so many interconnected systems. I should know, I've been delivering technology programs with governments for the past 18 years... it ain't easy.
  13. I'm with you on that one. Armageddon is out of the question, and as crypto is a high risk asset class it will struggle like everything else if the markets head south and there's a flight to 'safety'. What I think we will see, however, is more national economies slipping into recession over the next 2-3 quarters with some contagion throughout Europe in particular, and continued downward pressure on interest rates as nations try to kick-start local economic growth. The system is not designed to work with negative interest rates. Something will need to change.
  14. Fun? Far fetched?... It certainly is. Am I mortgaging the house to 'go all in' for the opportunity... no, not a chance. Though I will be listening carefully to the language used by the IMF, BoE, ECB and others over the next 6-12 months, and taking note of who's sitting at the table.
  15. Not sure I follow. A government either manages within its budget or it doesn't. When it doesn't for whatever reason, government raises money by selling debt as bonds and guarantees a % return to the buyer after a period of time (3m, 2y, 5y, 10y, etc). It's still debt and needs to be paid on maturity - it's a repayment obligation the same government (or their opposition) will need to make good on in future. Government bonds are typically seen as a safe place to park cash, and are often required as a % of large investment holdings for institutions, retirement funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. Trouble is... the interest rates are falling through the floor and the debt keeps rising. The system isn't designed to work with negative interest rates.
  16. Well, to be fair I only said 'maybe' I'm less worried about the bear, and more focused on the possibility that addressing global debt might increase the value of XRP. Every time new facts come to light I find myself looking back over past announcements / theories / suggestions to see if it sheds new light on where all this might be going. The recent IMF and BoE talk of the need for change and the idea of a common digital bridging asset got me thinking... why would nations 'buy in'?.... where would the money come from?... where's the fair exchange of value for giving up sovereign reserves?
  17. Fair point. I suppose everything has to start somewhere. There's the MXN/PHP/USD corridors in play already, and soon XRP will underpin the world's second largest non-bank money transfer company's operations. Sure, it's small change compared to the big picture, but it feels a decent start to me. I'm not hung up on the figure so much, nor do I kneel at the alter of BG123, but I thought it was interesting when I ran those numbers that it came out so close. Do I think we have a global debt problem?... yes Do I think the IMF and central banks want to solve it?... yes, or at the very least contain it Do I think they'd consider adopting an appreciable asset, that doesn't currently sit on any nation's balance sheet, and could be allocated then increased in value to repay debt, at the same time as providing liquidity to the cross-border payments market and promoting financial inclusion (through low cost financial services)... yes, I sure do.
  18. Recent discussion about bridging CBDCs and the looming global debt crisis got me thinking. How do you shock the global economy out of a descending spiral of high debt and low (or negative) interest rates that has seen us circling the drain for the past decade? What if XRP is being considered not just as a (the?) global bridge digital asset, but also as a way to address the astronomical, and ever-increasing, cost of global debt? What if, in exchange for nations giving up a portion of their sovereign reserves, as required to create a centralised/IMF global reserve of XRP, those same nations were given the chance to forgive their sovereign debt? If this were the case, you wouldn't calculate potential XRP value based on transaction flows, but on the realised value of debt forgiven. So I ran the numbers... assuming all 100 billion XRP are available to the market (now we know this isn't strictly true, but the alternative only pushes the $/XRP higher) and using today's Global Debt Clock figure of $59,507,840,000,000 ($59.5 trillion), we come out with a figure of $595 per XRP. Sure, it's a little more than the bear's prophetic $589+ but it's awful close, and besides, that was a year ago and the debt increases daily. What if this was the hint all along?... What if? #xrpthebridge https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock
  19. I've been buzzing all day after reading this news. I'm no moonboi but I think we'll look back on this in years to come as a defining moment in the evolution of digital assets and global finance. Given the partnerships and progress that is already public knowledge, and the network effect that has been building this past year, this news of Japan being anointed to lead the way puts SBI, R3 and XRP at the centre of the emerging digital global financial system. Game on swift! #xrpthebridge
  20. Interesting article hit the Australian press today... ASX sells stake in IRESS as move from CHESS to distributed ledger technology advances. No mention of XRP specifically, but there is mention of instant settlement. Time will tell. https://smallcaps.com.au/asx-sells-stake-iress-chess-blockchain-distributed-ledger-technology/
  21. I think most browsers, if not all, will be interoperable with ILP soon enough thanks to the new W3C Payment Handler API... https://www.w3.org/Payments/WG/
  22. now 4... here we go!!! FYI, I tried my first withdrawal ($5k) from BTC Markets to UBank the other day... worked a treat, no delays and no bank issues.
  23. Plan A... 18% @ $54 = early retirement Plan B... cash out and load up more if there's a boom/bust cycle first
  24. As I understand it, Corda settler is R3s equivalent to xrapid... and can use XRP directly (no xrapid required) as the bridging asset for cross-currency settlement.
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