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hallwaymonitor

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  1. Monitoring order books is generally very confusing because there might be fake sell/buy walls and all sorts of shenanigans going on. That's why I have basically ignored the order books thus far and concentrated on the live trades because they represent the reality better. My assumption is that the existing xRapid XRP/MXN market makers in Bitso don't keep their orders visible in the order books all day. Instead, they will probably know somehow in advance when the next xRapid txs are coming to Bitso from Bitstamp via XRPL. Thus, right before the XRPs land on Bitso's account the market makers initiate buy XRP / sell MXN orders and right after that the xRapid takes those orders and hence we see unusually big live trades (such as that 77,000 XRP trade) in Bitso. To put my assumption to the test I'm going to monitor BUY ORDERS and MOST RECENT TRADES sections in below link when I will get the next opportunity such as in below picture. https://bitso.com/trade/market/xrp/mxn
  2. Exactly! Based on my findings the max. single XRP/MXN trade you can make in Bitso right now is about 77,000 XRP. If you try to trade bigger amount than that it will be split to multiple parts (often incurring slippage too). E.g. Single XRP/MXN order of 100,000 XRP will lead to two successful trades 70,000 XRP (4.89 MXN) and 30,000 XRP (4.88 MXN). Why? Because the current market makers in Bitso don't have deep enough pockets to provide the required liquidity for higher than 77,000 XRP sized trades. I'm going to use this number 77,000 XRP as a baseline while monitoring the XRP/MXN live trades in Bitso. This number must go up a lot before big boys can start using xRapid in Bitso.
  3. As expected there are market makers involved with xRapid transactions to provide liquidity. Ripple has not been paying to market markets to provide liquidity for now. There are contracts involved with Ripple and at least some of the market makers to establish mutually beneficial business where xRapid txs won't fail due to insufficient liquidity or market makers get bad prices constantly. From 10:35: "We have been strategically partnering with number of market makers..."
  4. I think that is the best way to follow xRapid long-term trend right now. Galgitron's charts monitor overall XRP txs which are still mostly speculative and hence not yet good way to gauge xRapid txs IMO.
  5. The locked value might depend on the associated Destination Tag because they differ greatly between each other. Some xRapid suspected DTs land on XRPL in strings right after each other whereas some DTs land on individually several minutes between each other. Also value differs greatly between DTs. I can think that the reason for this phenomenon is either Ripple is still trying to figure out the best practice of xRapid txs or different use cases (remittance, treasury operations, etc.) behind the xRapid txs. I used to think xRapid will raise XRP price in Bitstamp where it is bought and on contrary decrease the price in Bitso due to selling it. Now I suspect that the price will stay pretty much the same before and after the xRapid txs in Bitso. I need to gather more evidence is that the case in Bitso. Also I should monitor Bitstamp trades during xRapid txs does the price stay the same or raise there.
  6. First of all there is no guarantee that it was xRapid. I guess (and hope) it was xRapid but I could have been wrong. However, the focus here is to monitor development of the value transfers from USD to MXN within ~2 minutes interval without pre-funding of MXN. My hypothesis is that the more we will see these kind of value transfers the better chance xRapid is involved in them and vice versa. Also higher count and volume of these kind of value transfers will correlate positively with the liquidity in Bitso that is prerequisite for xRapid to serve big players such as MoneyGram. I was positively surprised that at least this instance I tweeted about did not drop the XRP/MXN price during the whole process (~2 minutes interval). The price fluctuated and each of the traded string (4 in total) started with constant price 4.91 XRP/MXN as if it had been predetermined before the process even started. This is a complex topic and hence it goes very deep if you start to ponder are there designated market makers in Bitso to provide liquidity and how they source liquidity for themselves whilst being profitable.
  7. I have a good feeling about this liquidity index. I think the trend will keep pushing upwards for at least a few weeks or so. a) Today was very hectic day what comes to the txs from Bitstamp to Bitso. Lots of 100k XRP txs. b) Q3 will come to its end in two weeks and that tends to put Bitso's XRP/MXN volume to an extra gear. c) A couple of new xRapid suspected destination tags have recently started to send from Bitstamp to Bitso. d) And this...
  8. Here are the links to the interview. The same old stuff except Ria and Amizo are apparently using XRP according to Brad (watch the end of the part 1 video). https://us.riafinancial.com/en https://azimo.com/en Part 1: Part 2:
  9. You used a word "when" here. Are you implying that will expect MGI to reap the benefits of implementing xRapid already in the Q4/2019 report? Maybe Ripple offered xRapid implementation to MGI for free at first but since MGI probably needed financing they demanded money from Ripple in exchange (?) Thus, Ripple gave money to MGI in exchange for MGI stocks. MGI got the money in order to stay in business longer and Ripple got "their" large scale xRapid Proof-of-Concept in production environment. This is my best guesstimate of the events that lead to the MGI xRapid deal.
  10. I must say that I had this very same initial thought after MGI and Ripple deal was announced. Probably because I'm a pessimist by nature. At least we know that Brad's infamous statements about major banks eoy 2018 did not happen. Something went wrong during summer 2018. That alone was a sign of trouble with adoption, unfortunately.
  11. MoneyGram (MGI) is indeed almost like binary event where the stock price will go up or down dramatically during the next couple of years. Either Ripple makes MGI great again OR Ripple keeps investing on it over and over until MGI goes to bankrupt or will be eaten by vultures. I regard the stock price of MGI as a leading indicator of success of RippleNet and especially xRapid. I bet there are lots of eyes watching MGI will it make out of its misery or not. Another leading indicator would be XRP volume between the known xRapid currency exchanges. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MGI?p=MGI&.tsrc=fin-srch
  12. I think you are right again. If the local rails are indeed near instant then the term pre-funding is not applicable. You just need a bank account with enough balance in it. I guess Ripple would not open xRapid country corridor in some of the countries in Africa or Asia where the local rails are very bad/slow just yet because it would make xRapid txs too slow in practice. Thus, I would argue that one prerequisite for new xRapid country corridor is the banking local rails.
  13. Agreed. I managed to mix up nostro accounts and prefunded accounts between each other. Sorry for the confusion. I edited my previous post accordingly. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nostroaccount.asp
  14. Thanks for correcting me. I guess technically there is no need for even prefunded strong FIAT (EUR, USD, JPY, etc.) in step 1. You could just send money to xCurrent bank X right before you are about to initiate the xRapid tx from step 1 to step 5. However, in reality I guess (again) that xRapid customers choose to keep at least some of their strong FIAT reserves at the xCurrent bank X as prefunded in order to stay liquid 24/7 and also be able to finance their urgent domestic operating costs at the same time. The key difference here is that they are not technically forced to keep any money in xCurrent bank X to operate their xRapid. Am I right?
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