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hallwaymonitor

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  1. I think it wasn't just utility-scan because there really weren't any ODLing from Bitstamp to Bitso during several hours. In hindsight I would say they were configuring MoneyGram's ODL to process higher volumes than before. For instance, this large tx happened recently. https://xrpscan.com/tx/17383FBAC3A1FDAF5479F88F3EC9156CA8FF1AF2BF879587AC925E2300B78956
  2. How come Ripple's investors own no XRP (?) If Ripple owns around 50 billion XRP and Ripple is owned by bunch of investors (holding Ripple stocks) that makes the Ripple stock holders also the XRP owners indirectly. The Ripple's stock ownership is getting more "decentralized" and hence the XRP distribution is getting more "decentralized" in a sense because now there are more Ripple stock owners after this latest funding round. Why would more than 50 % of the Ripple's stock owners vote to abandon Ripple's 50 billions XRPs and start using something else?
  3. I think we have catch 22 here. In order to make XRP utilization high, Ripple must build the whole ecosystem (including regulations, custody solutions, etc.) around it first. Why would institutional investors buy billions of Ripple's XRPs now when the existing infrastructure isn't strong enough to support utilization of billions of XRPs daily (?) Even if the regulations would "come" tomorrow there would not be mad crush to buy XRPs among institutional investors at the moment IMHO. This is the XRP II account that Ripple uses to sell its XRP to institutional investors. These days most of the outbound txs seems to end up to Bitstamp and SBI VC. https://xrpscan.com/account/r9B3osCvQ28Chgv1qKDqwcGkQaDZJf4iqB
  4. A cynic in me says that there are not enough demand for XRP yet. Ripple sold its XRPs mostly to crypto exchanges in 2017-2019. The exchanges sold mostly to retail. This increased supply of XRPs to open market satisfied the existing demand and hence the price of XRP has not performed as good as many other cryptos. So, Ripple probably figured out this phenomenon during the first half of 2019 and that's why we saw them to sell less XRPs. Why not sell XRPs to banks and other FIs then? Well, I'm afraid there are not enough demand either. I bet Ripple would love to sell billions of their XRPs today even with heavy discounts and reselling restrictions but the harsh truth is that there not institutional demand yet. It's not enough to say "XRP settles in 4 seconds" for FIs and then get the sale. This time the institutional demand will be the prerequisite of Ripple's XRP cash cow. The only way Ripple can create the institutional demand is to prove that XRP saves them money. In order to do that Ripple must build RippleNet infrastructure to the high enough level that the cost savings will become reality. So concrete that you can pull the income statement from MoneyGram (and other ODLers) and see the cost saving from there. Thus, Ripple needs more money to buidl RippleNet faster and that's why Ripple did this latest funding round because selling XRP is no longer efficient option. Modus operandi: 1. Ripple's funding rounds 2. More money to Ripple 3. Buidl RippleNet moar 4. Prove ODL cost savings (over and over again) 5. The institutional demand for ODL will rise 6. The increasing institutional demand of ODL will also increase demand for Ripple's XRPs 7. Ripple can start selling its XRPs again and this time mostly to the institutions
  5. In below link is also Brad Garlinghouse interview: https://fortune.com/2019/12/20/ripple-raises-200-million-xrp-cryptocurrency/
  6. Yup. Let's hope they dump those 384 million XRP now when the XRP price is "low". imagine could happen if they will hold XRPs till the next bull run. It is possible that the Plustoken scammers interrupted the whale coitus in June 2019 when we had nice bull run going on.
  7. Here is a good analysis about the partial payment exploit: https://medium.com/@JohnGaltBPM/beaxy-incompetent-in-denial-insolvent-614ff7561044
  8. We could but the experience would be similar than dealing with Carol Beer from Little Britain.
  9. Well the story continues and after this I will try to not track further. From this Blue Helix account (https://xrpscan.com/account/rNWLvz9K5bgNcLwUDPAKgnmfopZx3zSvg3) they continued to transfer as follows: https://xrpscan.com/account/rskZBJCS5ZygxsP2tAZ2gRCwSuyh9dgaXM https://xrpscan.com/account/rKkJHcPqMnNq4EWHrPMvmDRjt5DFEWJZfy https://xrpscan.com/account/rwG47yUPEmHnKwxa59F2Jh8T98JG72sx66 From the latest account they seem to transfer to other anon accounts and also to various exchange accounts (such as FCoin, UPbit, Bittrex, etc.). They seem to cover their tracks by making lots of transactions and also transferring in and out of crypto exchanges hoping to camouflage their iilegit XRPs with the legit XRPs within exchanges somehow.
  10. It is not XRP/ODL at least for these reasons for now: "blockchain-based". Every time I hear this euphemism I associate it to some kind of centralized DLT system that the FI is using. In this case Santander is probably referring to xCurrent plumbing which they have white labeled as their own blockchain-based payments system. xCurrent is blockchain-based because it applies blockchain technology but that doesn't make xCurrent a blockchain. "Instant transfers". ODL or xRapid is not instant. One ODL tx takes a minute or two to complete. xCurrent is instant because you only send data and have pre-funded money already sitting at the account. "we’re actually covering 50% of all the FX payments that the Santander Group does annually". Clearly not XRP related because we would see that kind of volume on XRPL Ledger. Last but not least Bitso's XRP/MXN liquidity (although growing) is still way too low for something as big as Santander. Even the CEO of MGI said they would like to ramp-up their ODL faster but Ripple could not meet the demand as fast as the CEO desired.
  11. Manual monitoring still makes sense in this account where they had 484,775,570 XRP but today they have "only" 384,775,619 XRP left. Thus, they will very, very likely sell those 100 million XRPs in various exchanges little by little. So, the selling pressure could be expected from this account for the next 6-12 months or so to open XRP markets. https://xrpscan.com/account/r3C9BXmTtiDLhxH76cWP6vbyDEkbtxANzo
  12. They have started to split and recycle transactions more and more. Thus, there is not much point to track these transaction manually as I have been doing. Here is one example in chronological order: https://xrpscan.com/account/reLaS7S4e8cndQxgWZ5ANAT7sY6EFzY2U https://xrpscan.com/account/rJ51MEYPYRkPppJQBvGid5GE3rekqwhrMG https://xrpscan.com/account/r3gkBjfJW4DoZW6dKyodfxgmxZCTBupj9H https://xrpscan.com/account/rwG47yUPEmHnKwxa59F2Jh8T98JG72sx66 https://xrpscan.com/account/rNWLvz9K5bgNcLwUDPAKgnmfopZx3zSvg3 At the moment they have these 300k XRP sitting at Blue Helix exchange.
  13. I think the current cash management model will mostly be applied to cryptocurrencies in this case. For instance, it is not sensible that you go to ATM and withdraw part of your legal taxed paycheck and some of the currency notes happend to contain a tiny bit residue from cocaine. Then police catch you on the street with their sniffer dog and then you end up to court of law to face charges of drug dealing. Of course this is not likely scenario. The same principle should be applied to these scammed XRPs from PlusToken. For instance: 1. The suspected scammers move portion of "their" XRP to Bitstamp which is Ripple's preferred ODL exchange. 2. They then place pending order: Sell XRP / Buy USD. 3. After that MoneyGram initiates ODL transaction which starts from Bitstamp where they set limit order: buy XRP / sell USD. 4. At least some of the orders match and the trade is executed with a certain XRP/USD price. 5. ODL transaction transfers the scammed XRPs from Bitstamp to Bitso on XRPL and so on. Of course both RippleNet and MoneyGram are still AML compliant even if above steps from 1 to 5 would happen because cash notes that has been used illegally previously flow through legal entities everyday without problems.
  14. Thanks for sharing. Here is the original source of the article for those that have paywall from Wired site. https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/Papers/making-bitcoin-legal.pdf They say that XRPs are fungible (and they are) but you can still unravel each XRP coin to the genesis ledger. Oh, the first 30k ledgers are messed up but you get the idea. Manually this task would be time-consuming and hence new software would be ideal.
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