Jump to content

hallwaymonitor

Bronze Member
  • Content Count

    457
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About hallwaymonitor

  • Rank
    Regular

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Based on the Swell agenda I'm going to guess the keynote speaker will be someone dull. I hope I will be wrong.
  2. You can try to monitor potential xRapid flows of SBI VC as can be seen from the picture. At the moment there are already 9 accounts earmarked for SBI VC. However, if you start analyzing these 9 accounts you will see that some of them are already dormant and there are new anonymous accounts already in use. This rather complex XRP account management of SBI tells me that they take IT security very seriously and they probably are still figuring out some stuff. I have not seen any xRapid-ish txs yet and hence I won't expect xRapid flows appear soon. https://xrpscan.com/account/rHtqTcp3SvjxbhpTYMFTUWX5B1mny9KWeE
  3. Apples and oranges. Those 877M (184+125+284+284) are still sitting in their accounts. We don't know what will happen to them? On the other hand the XRPs that were sent to exchanges usually go to the "cabbages and carrots" sector because it is very hard to know were they sold or forwarded to the other accounts in smaller increments.
  4. Yeah I remember the Bearwhale. The general consensus seems to be that It sold 1B XRP on open market between January and November 2018. Thus, it took 11 months to offload 1B XRP to the ecosystem. During those 11 months XRP price was in bear trend. After the Bearwhale was done selling in December 2018 did the price then insta moon? No. IMO there were other sellers on open market satisfying the demand which resulted to stable XRP price. If I remember correctly there might still be an entity selling small amounts of XRP regularly in one of the exchanges because Ripple donated XRPs to the Ellen Degeneres wild life fund last year. This is not a big player but it reminds us that there are multiple entities selling XRPs on open markets and hence creating constant selling pressure. However, you gotta get XRPs from Ripple to the ecosystem somehow. Another option would be the coin burn but I find it to happen (at least in large scale) very unlikely.
  5. OK. I had finally time to read carefully the tweets from Thomas and here is another summary chronologically from the oldest to newest event: 1. This account received 1,5B XRP from Coincheck. They then forwarded the XRPs to multiple locations. This account still holds 184M XRP. https://xrpscan.com/account/rs8EfRvaQ71vmxfsyh3S16oWxVkrm8eu1m 2. Gambling addiction kicked in and 200M XRP was sent to Triple Dice Exchange. These 200M XRP ended up to Poloniex. https://xrpscan.com/tx/72D92F09D453BA5A3912004B9E704717BF9F3829E208030DDBFFBDBF4C3712CA 3. Rainy day account worth 125M XRP was activated and it still holds the same amount. If this accounts sends to any exchange in future then it might be rainy day for XRP holders. https://xrpscan.com/account/rPhFdAcoQMqRqH7xYvj9EERnvRVXzfcKn4 4. 60M XRP was sent Bitstamp. I don't know what happened to those 60M XRP after that. https://xrpscan.com/tx/13137C617B82D88050C2D3767AE5B819FC6E82F208866581AF705E313D1138ED 5. Another rainy day account! This time worth 284M XRP was activated straightway with those 284M XRP. Again if this accounts sends to any exchange in future then it might be rainy day for XRP holders. https://xrpscan.com/account/rP8uhT1wcbHaMkLCvJHeWTRkLWjk8ECVFT 6. Another rainy day and again 284M XRP. https://xrpscan.com/account/rMBRo97677iB8nk6rzRUBLKCTeWhEBZVbB 7. This used to be 284M XRP rainy day account as well but they decided to forward XRPs from here... https://xrpscan.com/account/rN3mJZDN4Nt4VEFHJRPRW9kUysoUFbs3Wy 8. ...to the account in below that is has been sending XRPs to Bitfinex and... https://xrpscan.com/account/rB4UtU9sAiMTF5Htg3k6kwUXV2dHyRFkJn 9. ...currently anonymous exchange like account in below which has been activated by Triple Dice Exchange. Most transactions in this exchange are very large and hence they probably aren't related to dice games. This account seems to be inbound account which means there's gotta be outbound account as well... https://xrpscan.com/account/rjmMgNPRCbMCkx5QGTkXCV7DjenRPjyzs 10. ...and here it is. However, this outbound account seems to have another outbound account... https://xrpscan.com/account/rKvAtitwmaYVFG8GwDmUSyqo71YMbeBSwn 11. ...in below which has been activated by Triple Dice Exchange. From this account transfers are to Bitstamp, Bithumb and... https://xrpscan.com/account/rBTkSC7aJGVenCWeJWhwKNqa8hK2Fzsm6i 12. to these accounts in below. https://xrpscan.com/account/rMjjMBDVwWdRsbC4QaU98MXQgSGFVv2G1c https://xrpscan.com/account/rQSJSLDDhhot315DEQjfK71wxmFCGtQZd In conclusion, there are still at least 877M (184+125+284+284) XRP ready to be sold. If these 877M XRP will be sold on the open market then it would affect negatively for the XRP price. As the historical transfers of the above accounts suggests we can assume that most of those 877M XRP will eventually end up one of the known exchange accounts.
  6. I wish there was a website where you could monitor the XRP transactions of the known XRP accounts of those in aggregate as listed in above. Right know I think the closest thing we have are the charts published by @jbjnr occasionally. If you could monitor this selling pressure in aggregate sufficiently (doesn't have to be perfect) then you could possibly be able to derive XRP price action way better than monitoring Ripple news or "TA experts".
  7. I agree and I think this also goes other way around: Ripple still needs FIAT from retail XRP investors to finance their rapid growth. If Ripple for one reason or another would lose the trust of retail XRP investors then who would be left to buy Ripple's XRPs (?) Institutions are not mass grabbing Ripple's XRPs yet. Thus, Ripple needs us and we need Ripple. Symbiosis. If Ripple will succeed to convince institutions to mass grab their XRPs in future then Ripple could afford to give us a finger without compromising their revenue and hence growth too much.
  8. A few random thoughts: I would start to think about Ripple's massive XRP holdings in terms of who owns Ripple the company. AFAIK, Ripple company is owned by the early investors of the funding rounds and some (ex-) Ripple workers. for example, if burning of Ripple's XRP reserves will not suit their interests then it won't happen and vice versa. IMO Ripple is trying hard to empty their massive XRP bags to the ecosystem. The faster they can do that the better. The more money they can make in the process the better. The more creative XRP use cases they can conjure the better. For instance, that's why xPring was founded. Ripple is laser focused to solve the payments problem and at the same time they expanded to develop new use cases on top of XRPL via xPring. Contradiction. IMO there is not yet big institutional demand for XRP. IMO if banks are going to buy Ripple's XRP en mass in future then they are not going to pay high unit price for XRP. Why? Because they have been screwing over people for centuries. They know the game better than us. They do inside trading, launder money, BS everybody and get bailed out ("too big to fall") if needed. So, if your DCA is like 0.30 USD and you think that you have bought lower than all the big banks are going to then think again. Stable price of XRP is aligned with Ripple's interest. IF Ripple would "do Binance" and just burn all of their XRP holdings pew pow then the existing XRPs in the ecosystem could start to move in a way that makes XRPs way more unstable long-term. We could get even moonshot and then hard dump. Who knows. I reckon the average volatility of XRP price would increase anyways and THAT would increase holding costs of XRP (due to increasing hedging costs) WHICH would be unfortunate for xRapid adoption, market makers or even institutional speculative XRP holding.
  9. In hindsight the eoy 2018 prediction failed and it very likely was tied to the eoy 2019 prediction was well and hence it will probably fail too. The positive thing is that the XRP price might still moonshot eoy 2019 without major banks BUT only if he whales allow it to moon. On the other hand if the whales disallow to moon then we will stay flat long long time. Whale dictatorship.
  10. Egyptian pound (EGP) is definitely an inflationary and unstable currency that you don't want to hold long-time. AFAIK xRapid would be ideal solution to eliminate pre-funding of EGP but unfortunately there is not any XRP/EGP pairing in any exchanges yet. https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/currency https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/inflation-cpi
  11. Yup. My bank in Eurozone takes usually just one 1 business day when I send EUR to my Bitstamp account. Thanks to SEPA this transfer does not cost me anything. Just to clarify that the DIY of xRapid model in above assumes pre-funded EUR in your Bitstamp account (step 1). The remaining steps 2-6 can be done without pre-funding as is the case with the real xRapid API by Ripple.
  12. Although this article is now ancient (published in Feb 21, 2018) in terms of crypto space-time in reality it just might have been published on yesterday. If you don't like the XRP price performance then do yourself a favor and read this even if you have already read it once. We are still living in 2017 unfortunately. http://galgitron.net/Post/The-Anatomy-of-a-Whale
  13. I don't know for sure either and hence I edited my previous guesstimate. If the Mexican rails would be real-time today then it means that the steps 2-> 6 in my example could be done easily intraday without xRapid. Why wouldn't companies in the Eurozone start paying to their Mexican suppliers this way already? What I'm missing here?
×
×
  • Create New...