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Luinorn

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  1. I beg your pardon @Benchmark but I went through that thread as well and couldn't find any solid analysis apart from average XRPchat Joes calling each other FUDsters and posting GIFs. Maybe I am just blind to miss those important posts. Extraordinary statements need extraordinary evidence. I would really love to read some solid analysis about the topic of Chris Larsen manipulating the XRP price over the standard programmatic sales, but apart from rumors "I have seen that in the thread somewhere and on Twitter too!" I haven't spotted anything sound yet.
  2. It seems that you are not much excited about XRP at the moment, are you? I am personally more and more worried that XRP decoupled from BTC in a negative way nobody wished for here. BTC has its true natural cycles based in halving and scarsity. XRP had it's one anomalous peak everybody keeps worshipping (two major peaks during 2017 to be more precise). Currently, XRP is by far the least performing alt from top 10 in 2019H1 and it doesn't seem its fundamentals are much appreciated outside of the XRPchat bubble. When people talk about crypto cycles they always point to BTC and make the false implication that the same logic must apply to XRP, because XRP can't be below 3500 Satoshis. Well... I'd love to completely wrong
  3. Yes, that ping-pong between .39 and .48 is frustrating. We all suffer from the "trauma" of seeing XRP at $3 for a moment and keep waking up in the middle of the night due to that
  4. Personally, I am very bullish about XRP. And I also hope to enjoy great times with XRP again - I am in since early 2014. However, it gets annoying to hear "moon tomorrow!" all the time. Yes, being under 4k Satoshis now is a valuable observation that some sudden correction of the XRP/BTC price can happen. But it's just a probable possibility not a law of nature. And it's a bit upsetting (though natural) to see some hopium addicts to attack others when their pinky dreams meet sound reasoning. How many observations one needs to build a robust statistical model? Many TA magicians here cook predictions based on incredibly weak evidence - often just one or two past observations that stir their fantasy. Reminds me of the following graph coming from the times after the 2008 crisis.
  5. Thanks for a great analysis! May I have a suggestion @jbjnr? What if you compared your XRPII outflow with XRP/BTC charts? Sometimes I like to check how XRP stands against BTC. As BTC still rules the crypto world, one is tempted to say that if BTC is doing well, other cryptos should be doing well too, keeping XRP/BTC or ETH/BTC roughly constant. When XRP is getting significantly cheaper in comparison to BTC, I naively explain this as an effect of programmatic sales of Ripple. Could you please try to elaborate on this? Some parts of your analysis suggest it could be often the case. Thanks!
  6. Great work! However, instead of making such workday/weekend filters that are rather hard to read, could you just differentiate these timeseries and show us the plot of daily differences? I guess such plot would covey in much clearer way whether workdays are systematically different from weekends.
  7. Wasn't the expert by asking this question expressing the fact that what he misses in RippleNet is some central authority (like central bank of course) that would guarantee some stabilizing monetary policy, e.g., inflation 2% per year? It makes a lot of sense, if you are a central banker. But it's a horrifying idea, if you dream about moons and lambos on XRPChat
  8. This seems to me to be too strong statement to be stated just in a way "... it was something along those lines". Can you really prove this?
  9. This is some stochastic process. I guess you want to grasp changes in underlying parameters in time, so don't pay too much attention to noise. IMHO it's better to observe for example moving average of these time series.
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