Yakuni reacted to Valhalla_Guy in Will ODL cause an increase in price? Some thoughts..
The price of XRP will be whatever Mr. Garlinghouse and company says it will be.
It’s kind of like asking “If I drop a bowling ball off off a building, which way will it fall?”
You can certainly come up with thousands of possible scenarios, like a passing humming bird, thermal vents, or even an atmospheric pressure disturbance, that may indeed modify the path of the ball, but reality is none of it matters because gravity is the overwhelming force on the ball.
At this point Ripple Labs controls all of the gravity, meaning they own the price movements as well. ODL, IOV, and other mechanisms do not add up to a pig’s fart, against a bowling ball, when trying to move the price, from RL’s chosen path.
Yakuni reacted to jbjnr in Will ODL cause an increase in price? Some thoughts..
Buys and sells of XRP are made with a spread of some basis points. When $1Billion per day is being transferred around the globe using ODL even at 10basis points spread, someone is earning $365million per year just off the fees. This gives xrp an intrinsic value. Even if cars were free (but limited in number), taxi drivers would pay to own them because they can earn money from giving people rides. Market makers will compete for this income and this gives xrp its value. The more xrp that is locked away and not being used for liquidity, the less is available for cross border transfers and the higher the 'price'. As price rises, investors will lock more up, this will in turn drive up the price via competition for the remaining xrp. ODL provides a floor price below which XRP should not fall and the floor price is directly proportional to ODL volume (and circulating tokens).
Yakuni reacted to WuWei in Will XRP EVER regain its ATH price? Poll
Ripple's legitimacy, and therefore xrp's, is being established on a global basis almost daily. As more and more corridors come into play, xrp's utility will grow very rapidly; possibly even logarithmically; and the exchanges will have to keep their stockpiles adequately supplied. Other than xrp riding btc's coattails, and shooting up with it, I believe that it will be the SBI rollout after the Japanese regs go into effect this spring, that will ultimately be the start of any serious price appreciation. We'll see....
Yakuni reacted to jbjnr in ATH ODL Jan 17, 2020
My own estimate of ODL activity summed for all corridors looks like this:
A quite significant peak a couple of days ago around the $4m mark. The noticeable dip is the Xmas holidays. The overall direction is still heading upwards. I won't be happy until I see more than $100m per day at the very least.
I see quite a lot of traffic from binance to other exchanges that looks similar in pattern to ODL corridors, but I'm not including it as binance is not 'on the list' of approved exchanges (It's probably just money laundering from the many scams going on out there).
Yakuni reacted to Tinyaccount in After partnering with Alipay, Tranglo is now integrating RippleNet
This is the network effect in its beginning phases... it’s going to connect everywhere.
Thanks @LeonidasH for finding and publishing.... excellent work.
Yakuni reacted to LeonidasH in After partnering with Alipay, Tranglo is now integrating RippleNet
Yakuni reacted to JASCoder in MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price
Thanks for the encouragement
I can appreciate not all are intrigued by the underlying tech and challenges of effecting a global transformation of the present monetary handling systems. Some just wanna know whenmoon already.
I perceive that many here are generally interested.
Jargon to plain speak summation:
Deploying ODL is a chicken-and-egg conundrum - here is an analogy :
Imagine there was no cars and trucks, and of course no fuel stations. People want to build cars, but no one wanted to buy them because there was no fuel available. People want to refine fuel, and run gas stations, but there are no customers with cars.
What do you do ? Who goes first ? In the US, we want to send XRP to Mexico, and sell it there for pesos. But if we try to trade too much XRP in Mexico too often, it would cause the local price to drop so low, as to be prohibitive.
We need moar buyers with MXN to buy our XRP gaddamnit ! There is profit to be made buying XRP cheaper in Mexico and selling it somewhere else at a better price.
This is where the solution lies... And what us data miners and chart watchers are desperately seeking. We can't expect all the companies involved to tell us what they are doing to make this work. But there are publicly exposed clues we can monitor and figure out what they're up to, and how close they are to getting their solutions ramped up and growing.
That growth rate, and adoption rate by others, is what will lead to the inflection point at which increasing demand for using more and more XRP begins to impact its price.
That moment, will be transformative.
That moment will be the turning point of price driven not just by speculation.
Our precious hoards of tokens will be lent out to "market makers" to us it to make profit, and pay us "rent" aka interest.
I'm old enuf to remember "Savings Accounts" which paid 6-8% interest to use my hard earned money.
This is found in a normal economy.
That which crypto will return us to.
Hopefully soon !
Yakuni reacted to madToo in Anyone Buying?
I periodically look (every week or two) at XRP Stats and enter a wallet size of 200,000. Chosen because it is a serious enough size without being too out of reach.
There are between 10 to 15 wallets with larger values than 200,000 being added each time I look. I don't look at percentage as there are too many dead / insignificant wallets that skew that figure.
So yes I think there are reasonable positions being built up even in this market.
Today's value is 6878 if you want to monitor
Obviously this does not differentiate between individual wallets held on exchanges.
Yakuni reacted to ADingoAteMyXRP in ATH ODL Jan 17, 2020
I would bet Moneygram has set some kind of a ceiling for this early period to give their data science team a good sample to analyze the advantages of these flows.
Why? So they can share some bulletproof A/B tested impacts of ODL. Especially for Ripple, Moneygram would be a gold-standard case study. It’s one thing to sell a product as better — a whole other thing to be able to point to real world at-scale usage and say “their costs went down by X% compared to standard flows.”
Once they prove it out the sky’s the limit.
Yakuni reacted to JASCoder in ATH ODL Jan 17, 2020
Follow-up - Bitso trade volumes DEC2019 thru JAN2020 - Patterns of ongoing deployment...
As promised, please reference marked up chart below for your interest.
Before I forget, I want to add one more tidbit of info related to the DoM (depth of market) costs that I've also been computing and capturing into a database...
If you caught that recent comment from a Ripple Labs official, they described the following (paraphrased): "WU can charge up to 10% for cross-border remittances, we can provide the same for only 2%"
Now, what's interesting about this, is the BASELINE ODL costs I've been seeing for the BS-buy and Bitso-sell, factoring for the FX rate and the DoM books, has in general been running at around 0.8% - sometimes low as 0.4% at lower volumes - BUT YESTERDAY, I was seeing around 1.2% and lower, which is obviously directly related to the higher volume they are driving on this corridor, coupled with the "re-balancing" rates with the arbitrage processes. So what we're seeing in the hard data, IS aligning with official comments - and also implies that the additional overhead costs (plus profits?) are the additional 1% to result in their claimed "2%" total cost.
I'd like to add, that I believe once the liquidity is deeper, and the volumes are higher, they'll get the baseline "friction" down even lower. This will be fascinating to watch for
What you see in the chart below, is three key points:
Weekends and holiday periods are a bit chaotic - I also saw this around our Nov 2019 Thanksgiving time (see posts in Bitso thread). Before the late Dec. "madness" period, we were seeing a slow and steady ramp up of weekday volumes. The two post-madness period (J2/J3) we see a re-establishment of weekday volumes, and yesterday's heavy 2.11m volume (2nd ATH recorded) - combined with four days of increasing volume, depict the heaviest week evah ! NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE INTERESTING, eh mates ?!!
Yakuni reacted to JoelKatz in XRP-II benefits XRP? Yes, no, maybe so?
I felt a little bummed with the price drop during Swell, to be honest. But I know rationally that the price goes up and the price goes down and the short term prices don't really matter all that much.
As far as Ripple's execution goes, I feel better now than I ever have. Even the FUD now pretty much assumes that we'll take over payments. Now they just claim that still somehow that won't ever be reflected in the price of XRP. When you have moved the goalposts so far that your naysayers assume your startup will dominate a multibillion dollar industry, I'd say you've pretty much won.
I think they either do nothing or add. Unless a new walled garden takes over the world, walled gardens will always need bridging to other walled gardens. We need faster payments everywhere we can get them because with slow payments, fast settlement doesn't much matter.
I hope at some point we can announce xRapid volume. You should see it reflected in the reported XRP volume everywhere too. Just the commitments we have now should increase XRP volume by about 10% once they're in production. And we've just barely started trying to push xRapid. Only a very small percentage of XRP volume is Ripple off market transactions, and xRapid transactions should be on market, that is, visible, open, and increasing trade volume.
As I said, I honestly feel more encouraged now than ever before. Sure, I'd like to see a higher price for XRP, but I'm definitely playing the long game.
Yakuni reacted to CaligulazBaby in Coil recruiting
Coil have introduced a "boost program" where they reward bloggers with a monthly payout of XRP. In December three bloggers received roughly 10,200 XRP, 8,800 XRP and 5,500 XRP respectively.....just for blogging. That is an absolutely insane amount of money.
Coil is trying to get their name out there and they can't dance with the big boys until us little guys bring enough value to the platform in the form of traffic. Simple concept to understand. So Coil and their massive war chest is throwing money (literally) at bloggers who are actively helping to build that landscape so the big boys come to play.
I have no idea who you are, what job you have or what your current financial status is but 10,000 XRP a month for blogging is a handsome return no matter who you are.
Hodor has left a huge gap in the market. Galgitron is freaking hilarious but very rarely blogs any more (not as much as 2017 era) so do you think you could fill a gap here? If you can be bothered to gather XRP related news and bring it to Coil's platform then you will get paid very well for it. You don't even need to bring XRP stuff, the other guys in the CBC are producing anything from photo shoots, music lessons, delicious recipes or just musings on life.
If you have any kind of passion or interest then maybe it's worth heading over to Coil and sharing it because you could get that cash monayyy.
So here's the deal. I spoke with Karlos briefly and he changed the name of one of the forums toward the bottom of the menu so that it is for Coil posters. We now have a community location to gather. I have applied for the boost program and should I be successful I want to do a giveaway here on XRPchat. I will pay the monthly subscription for ten members so you can post some blogs and see how you like it and maybe get your big boost payday yourself. If you pay the subscription then I will return the money to you plus 20% so you even make an XRP or two from that transaction too! Example, price is $0.20, you pay $5 sub which = 25XRP, I will send you 30 XRP.
All I ask in return is that you are reasonably active in the Coil forum here on XRPchat. You get streamed XRP as other subscribers view your content so we could work together and get a pretty lucrative circle jerk going on just from views. You won't make much XRP unless you are a decent blogger who gets on the boost program but with my free offer you can at least jump on the train for a bit and see how you like it and make a few free zerps on the journey. It really is win win.
I don't want to try and feed you BS like, "let's all work together to spread the XRPL good word" or, "do something now and you will reap the reward next year when XRP does blah blah." I am telling you that right now, Coil are offering disgusting amounts of money to people who are willing to write some decent material and if you think you can string a sentence together without dribbling all over your keyboard then your bank balance is going to thank you.
So, if you are interested in getting in on this action then please say hello in this thread and should I get the Coil boost, I will fire XRPs to everyone who posted and we can start making some goddamn money. And in this disgusting multi-year bear market I think we all deserve a reward or two because sitting around twiddling our pubes while we hope for a price spike is getting boring.
Yakuni reacted to JASCoder in The Case For XRP by Galgitron
ODL is a fascinating system, the more I research and observe its behaviors, the more intriguing I find it.
The BS->Bitso corridor is operating more like a hose of finite capacity, striving to move a surplus of water from one pool to the other. Not by using different sized buckets to move quantities from one to the other (1 to 1 correlated transfers), but a constant flow like a syphon from a spring fed pool to the bath houses in the city, where the water gets splashed down the drains and evaporated, constantly needing replenishment from the syphon's hose from the spring.
MGI (apparently) randomly transfers various sized deposits of USD fiat into their Ripple Net account at the point of origin, and then MGI receives transfers of MXN fiat into their accounts in Mexico.
As you can see in the hourly volume metrics reported by Bitso, we note an obvious pattern:
A fairly constant level of trades is maintained 24/7 until a weekend (or holidays) hits. Note over the last four months, this average rate as been slowing rising.
I wrote a solver script to pull both order books from the respective APIs, and compute the market costs of various sized trades. Then I observed the range at which these trades matched up with the logged volumes. The "pain point" at which ODL appears to be sensitive to is around 0.8% slippage. I have actually seen the costs range for $10k amounts as low as zero percent (!!) to around 1.2%. The general average recently has been around 0.4% (and for large amounts like $100/200k lately I'm seeing at 1.0 and 2.2 %).
As for the arbitrage re-balancing rates, I've seen it recover fairly fast - like in under ten minutes - going from 1.8% after closing some trades back down under 0.8% by the next ten minute polled sample.
Currently, the published order book of the Bitso bids has been maintaining a cap at around $200k USD. I suspect the core limiting factor holding back volume growth is the rate at which Ripple Net's market makers are able to get MXN fiat into their Bitso account. The Pesos are "evaporating" from the bath houses in Mexico, leaving the system, constantly needing replenishment. What is left behind are surpluses of zerps, with its attendant price dampening pressure. I'd really love to know what the deployed mechanism is for managing cost overhead for reducing these XRP surplus at Bitso and restoring MXN fiat balances (do they use SWIFT??). That there, must be the Secret Sauce
Note: I am archiving the solver's sample data, and plan to chart that for future review and analysis.
Yakuni reacted to Tinyaccount in The Case For XRP by Galgitron
I think you can make reasonable arguments for all the values mentioned by my fellow members above. It’s great to see you guys laying out excellent thoughts like that. Thanks. I think we all agree somewhat... It really is an unknown.
IF major adoption happens and then many commentators say on mass media that there is a trillion dollar market with only a fixed supply of tokens, and some being lost all the time, then if we DONT have a giant run based on fomo by Joe Average WORLDWIDE then I would be somewhat surprised.
So now let’s consider how the air was let out of the market last time. First up, there were apocalyptic rumours and articles about how it was all going to be illegal and that China was banning it etc. Next up the run had been massively influenced by one single country, Korea, and that country had some very bad articles and an arrest come out at a critical moment. Then also consider that there was no utility flow happening and no real prospect in the immediate future.
I think things would be significantly different this time around if fomo (based on XRP real world adoption) happens. In this postulated run I don’t think the air could let out as much as it has this last time, Also all the on ramps are much fatter and better prepared than last time.
The other complication here is that there is a real possibility of a crypto-wide run and collapse before ODL and other use cases gets that utility fomo triggered.
Its all very complicated and impossible to predict. But I’m pretty sure the balance of probabilities is that 20c is a low ultimate price.
Yakuni reacted to XRP_to_20dollars in New Predication Game for 2020, Lets keep this tradition going guys
I was going to pluck some numbers out of thin air but this brilliant comment changed my mind.
Yakuni got a reaction from Dinoizzy in New Predication Game for 2020, Lets keep this tradition going guys
What will be will be. What won’t, won’t.
Yakuni got a reaction from Cesar1810 in New Predication Game for 2020, Lets keep this tradition going guys
What will be will be. What won’t, won’t.
Yakuni got a reaction from XRP_to_20dollars in New Predication Game for 2020, Lets keep this tradition going guys
What will be will be. What won’t, won’t.
Yakuni reacted to cryptoxrp in Will FedNow settle using XRP?
A bit to negative my friend. If FEDNOW decides to use Ripplenet (Xcurrent) then the groudwork is present for Xrapid. Personally I believe they will use Ripple DLT tech and XRP for international settlement. It is the smooth route of 'least resistance'.
US regulation is decided upon by the FED (together with the American Bankers Association). They are and have been in control for ages. The SEC is what I call their 'paper (regulation) tiger'.
If the FED (together with ABA Payments) says they are are going to do something, then they will. And they have said that this year (2019) a major step will be taken. So wait and see.
Some banks are still uncomfortable holding XRP but that is changing rapidly if you see the amounts of XRP (from escrow) being distributed. XRP is used for settlement as we speak so your statement "The problem with these Digital assets is no one wants to use them." is simply not true. The legacy pay & settlement systems are getting by-passed more and more.
The whole international pay/settlement system is in a state of change. With the yesterday news of Moneygram - Visa partnership in providing a debit card P2P service the writing is on the wall. Other smaller remittance players (local banks who are going to loose business) will not want to be left behind,