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  1. ADingoAteMyXRP

    SEC Statement on Crypto - 11.16.18

    "We wish to emphasize, however, that market participants must still adhere to our well-established and well-functioning federal securities law framework when dealing with technological innovations, regardless of whether the securities are issued in certificated form or using new technologies, such as blockchain." So... they're not going to provide clarity. Pass the buck, I suppose. This is sort of infuriating.
  2. ADingoAteMyXRP

    The Numbers - Make this Easy

    You keep posting about how XRP is worthless on an XRP board and wonder why people disagree with you?
  3. “Wrong!” I forgot about the long discredited notion that XRP’s maximum possible value is $0.0015 because “speed of money.” No, the same XRP is not being whirled around the planet constantly all day long by magic. You need actual buyers and sellers to arbitrage between exchanges, you need market makers and takers to horde, buy, and sell. An average use rate of once per day for most of that stored value is reasonable imo, especially considering true value will need to accommodate peak amounts and not average. Obviously neither of us know for sure until we see real-world utility, but what we have already seen is that market cap is often much higher than capital investment when you’re talking about a currency. In my opinion a daily average volume is a good estimate of market cap for coins that are available via xRapid.
  4. Ha! I am definitely not an insider. I’m just a person with a calculator and too much free time. (And to be clear... I think none of these riddler people are insiders either. They only post riddles so there’s plausible deniability when their fabricated predictions are wrong.) In order to serve daily volumes in the $5T+ a day range, XRP would have to be worth massive numbers. Imagine 10% of all XRP were utilized by xRapid in a given day, with the other 90% going to industry holdings, bank holdings, escrow, reserve currency, retail holdings, corporate treasury, micropayments etc. (I think 5% is more reasonable, but staying conservative we’ll say 10%). If that 10% were valued at $5T total (to serve xRapid), it would give all XRP a market cap of $50T, which means about $500 per XRP. That doesn’t count lost coins, which are probably in the vicinity of 20% of non-escrowed assets. Drop the xRapid-available portion down to 5% and it’s more like $1,000 per token. That’s with a daily volume of $5T. SWIFT and ACI volume combined is more like $19T. So... a lot more? To be transparent I think this is a long shot and not likely to play out perfectly, but even if Ripple won a tiny portion of that market, we might see some nice increases. This is not investment advice! I’m not a financial adviser, etc etc.
  5. If the rumors around TAS integration, ACI, SAP, Temenos, SEPA connections, Japan Bank consortium, SBI, BAKKT, institutional investing, Saudi digital transformation, US federal digital payments, and a RTGS system for central banks turn out to be even 5% true, XRP will be worth thousands of dollars in a few years. If a better technology is developed, XRP will become worthless. I'm scratching my head for ways this project could tank in the medium-term. Even if there's a scandal around one of the founding members, the momentum of the company is too great to stop.
  6. ADingoAteMyXRP

    Ripple and the IMF

    Malta? Only half-kidding. Interesting that he doesn't say "one of its currencies." He says "as its currency." I think most people assume a central bank would issue both paper money and crypto-assets, but this actually creates a host of new problems. People will have two numbers in their bank accounts -- paper and digital. A liquidity market will have to exist between the two, in order to keep them even in parity. You might even find market pressures forcing the crypto value up since it's inherently more liquid and transferable... and those market pressures might be best resolved by allowing those currencies to be worth different amounts. Which means you go from a one-currency country to a two-currency country. Basically... this space has a looooong way to go before we settle at any kind of equilibrium.
  7. ADingoAteMyXRP

    How much is owned by FI?

    You haven’t provided any evidence that CMC is changing their market cap calculation. (They do not use public float — they merely remove escrowed coins from the calculation.)
  8. ADingoAteMyXRP

    How much is owned by FI?

    This is an incoherent list of ways CoinMarketCap may be abusing their power, from March. Where is evidence they are changing their methods of calculating total supply? I ask because removing coins “in wallets” as you state would mean removing... all of them. All coins are in wallets.
  9. ADingoAteMyXRP

    How much is owned by FI?

    Where did you hear they’re changing circulating supply calculations? That... seems totally unnecessary.
  10. And the tax! These people are crazy trying to play blips based on meaningless TA.
  11. ADingoAteMyXRP

    XRP Price Calculator

    I appreciate the depth of thought you’ve put into this. It sounds like the answer is a highly qualified “no,” at least until the artificial general intelligence can develop and ingest the massive data sets required to compute that sort of net present value. Until then, relative estimate of the value of XRP in relation to USD is not possible given your method, so in the interest of approximating I’ll just stick with this one over here. It seems to work well enough for most financial analysts.
  12. ADingoAteMyXRP

    XRP Price Calculator

    Thanks! Can power theory be used to provide a quantitative valuation of XRP? And will it be more accurate than the one provided by "quantity theory"? One can only dream I suppose...
  13. This is the second time they've changed the panelists... I think they just had other priorities. Doubt they would announce anything in a panel with other companies.
  14. ADingoAteMyXRP

    XRP Price Calculator

    If psychology and expectations were the primary player in the space of crypto I don’t think we’d have seen $19k valuations for Bitcoin. Quantity theory needs amending, but when you’re dealing with an asset class that has minimal history of real-world use I’m not sure it’s worth complaining about unless you have a quantitative method to displace it. (And I’m hoping that method isn’t TA.)