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Wandering_Dog

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  1. Go get some fresh air @Ripple-Stiltskin, the less empty garbage you post the better.
  2. The Fed is the central bank. Central banks, their currencies, are not equals amoung many. Just stop posting. Its not informative.
  3. Not following mate. Are you asking what's the address of the Federal Reserve? Usually the NY Fed, but the Federal Reserve System is the aggregate balance sheet of all the Fed banks, so if you're wondering wtf is going on, you could always try dropping by one of them and asking. Let me know what they say
  4. Wow, you're a ****. The guy asked if a recession would negatively affect XRP, using the most reliable indicator of past recessions. I think if you're a "it's different this time" or 1928 Irving Fisher kind of guy, hey, more power too you, we need people like you to offload our portfolios. But we'd all be better off if you just didn't post a reply, honestly. Anyway--the yield curve inversion is caused by the Central Bank pushing up short term interest rates, as there is no natural tendency for the short term rate to rise for a sovereign borrower like the US, instead the opposite is true: rates fall as the supply of credit expands. Higher short term rates puts pressure on borrowers with short term liabilities, and the number of short term borrowers with speculative or ponzi investments increases as credit increases from bank lending. As short term rates rise, the profitability of bank lending is reduced, which reduces the number of loans that are issued, which reduces the money supply. Less money means it's harder for short term borrowers to borrow--there is less credit money available, and the rates they have to pay are higher. The result, eventually, is an increase in defaults, which reverses the cycle and sets off deflation. Concurrently, the US has created a rather laughable problem stemming from their use of tax breaks. By reducing taxes and increasing the deficit, the US is about to convert nearly all the excess reserves in the USD system to bonds. This may lead to a liquidity problem, which would cause the Fed to restart QE as soon as (or if) the problem is detected. More QE means the banks will simply convert bonds back to reserves, and the asset price bubble will continue. Again, whether or not asset prices fall significantly depends entirely upon how long the Fed permits short terms to be high, how long they permit the curve to be inverted, and how quickly they restart QE.
  5. So in a regulated market, Ripple breaking the law is their fault. But in an unregulated market, it's our fault. I like this logic. We can always pass a retrospective law, as a democracy, and literally put them in jail because the fraud is their fault, not ours, lol.
  6. Well, technically their location is known. One could always go down there and [EDIT: removed for a PG audience], then call it "free-market regulation". Just make sure the shooter is Libertarian
  7. That's not how money works. Take your own balance sheet as an example--if the bank comes to you and says its closing your savings account and moving those deposits to your checking account, then you need to find somewhere else to stick those deposits and earn a return. Perhaps because interest rates are so low people no longer differentiate between savings and cash. But if you convert all bonds to cash, those people have to find something else, something riskier, to buy with that cash. The public debt is not a problem, unless people's savings are a problem.
  8. No, Libra is composed of USD, most likely more than 50%. Libra is just a commercial bank. It uses CB's for settlement. It changes nothing about how the financial system already works except that this particular commercial bank doesn't exist yet, plans to make its ledger transparent, and will likely hold 100% reserves.
  9. @Sukrim I'm not sure what you mean by "backing of IOUs". Is a USD_reserve, or a USD_bank_i backed by something? Similarly, the "backing" of a mortgage of a physical asset is largely irrelevant, as a bank isn't interested in collecting houses. I would disagree with your assertion that a GUI is not useful, as most of us would agree, a weather map is a very useful tool for making decisions. I don't need to run the model myself to benefit from it, I can look at a picture. Similarly, if we want to know about the health of credit creation towards a certain sector, upcoming repayments, and the first, second, or third tier dependencies between those repayments and other sectors, we could just look at a picture. An easy to read "weather map" of finance gives everyone the info they need at whatever level they can digest to help make sound decisions about the future. For example, you probably don't know today what the level of credit creation was yesterday in your country towards a certain sector, or what impact that credit creation has on other sectors ability to repay their obligations, or the level of late payments between parties, however granular--because that info isn't available today.
  10. Absolutely, the ledger is not connected to anything legally, its just a "monopoly board" ledger. Does that mean we should stop development on crypto ledgers in general? I don't think that's what you intended to say. The tools we need to combat financial instability are not being developed on the existing financial system, because the incumbents, banks, benefit from obscuring all balance sheets. This type of innovation will come from outside, and if someone builds it, we can go to our gov's and say "hey, this system we've developed has the tools we need to fight instability, implement something like this, or just use it yourself outright". So summing everything is a great place to start, but I just wanted to mention how important/useful granularity is, before everything is coded in such a way that it becomes a nightmare to implement granularity later.
  11. One thing worth mentioning, as a parallel: if we converted all liabilities, even just USD based contracts, to USD_reserves, we would lose the ability to see any potential problems with, for example, sub-prime mortgages. A very valuable tool would be show the level of granularity desired by the researcher, down to individual issuance's. Maybe they can run multiple instances on multiple screens--or if they have a really beefy machine, layer multiple variables to see them in real time on top of each other. I think this tool would be extremely valuable for revealing unstable loci (assuming the ledger contained everything), as you could see who will be unable to pay when, and how that impacts dependent contracts, the domino's so to speak. One thing worth mentioning: real-time data rather than historical data would give central bankers the ability to intervene with more focus, and greater speed, which could prevent the need for things like QE--you don't need to backstop the entire market (buy all assets) if you can destroy the unstable locus as soon as it appears.
  12. If the financial system is fully transparent, it should be possible to see, visually, unstable dynamics as they form, which should give participants the information they need to prevent collapse. Another way of thinking about it is a weather map, or an MRI--I don't think people usually think of the financial system in such as way, but if you do, the answer is obvious.
  13. Just thinking out loud: One thing that I can imagine could be tricky is how you treat liabilities from multiple institutions, do you treat all XRP or USD liabilities the same, or break it down by issuer, or both?
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