Jump to content

Julian_Williams

Gold Member
  • Content Count

    3,113
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

Reputation Activity

  1. Haha
    Julian_Williams reacted to Baka in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    you've put your lifesavings in crypto ? you trolling ?
  2. Like
    Julian_Williams reacted to Caracappa in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    You could have based your investment on a million one line quotes from CEO's and employees. It still makes the basis of your investments a bad one for which you are to blame. No matter how you try to turn the blame to others every single post.
    No I did not decide to buy because of twitter quotes. I invested before the 2017 run on an idea which solves a problem that still very much exists. Whether it will solve that problem or another solution comes up is the question, but that is how investments work. If it's a done deal, there is no risk. Untill now there is still no other solution, some small attempts at it and some upgrades on legacy systems. And with all do respect to the entire crypto market, Ripple and XRP are about the only ones who actually made progress, instead of some minor updates to a protocal or forks here and there. Probably not fast enough to your likings.  And I've got easy talking, I know that, by taking out the investment money plus some extra on earlier runs.
    Now the collapse of the XRP price, and the whole crypto market for that matter is too bad, but logical after a ridiculous rise as in 2017. It still not solved the existing problem and is still in the race for doing just that. Has nothing to do with XRP price which is simply following BTC. It corrected harder because it grew unnaturally harder in 2017.
    So keep repeating the quotes of employees all day long to take the blame away from yourself. It shows you haven't changed a bit since the moment you decided to put money in an emotional and 'get rich quick' investment in the first place…
  3. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from XRPboi in XRP Price Outperforms, Are Investors Connecting Ripple To The Proposed Fed Digital Dollar?   
    Much too early to comment. I agree the sentiment towards XRP seems more positive than a week ago.  XRP is about providing liquidity, and gaining more liquidity has moved to the top of the agenda, so it is possible that this is at last having an impact.  Lets keep watching and keep our fingers crossed that this is a moment when sentiment moved in XRP's direction.
  4. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Truckdriver in Swing trading   
    Yes I can't do swing trading because it feels like gambling, but it is true the gamblers have done really well in this bear market.  I have lowered and lowered my DCA, so I feel I have won too, just not as big as the people with bigger appetite for gambling.
  5. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Truckdriver in Q1 2020 ODL report   
    Congratulations - very nice analytical work.
    Very much struck at how similar the patterns you are picking up are to the other ODL reporters - Tentoshi and "the utility scan".   It seems big drops in the value of XRP are followed by periods of flattening and slight dropping in ODL activity.  In other words setting up ODL in a bear market is like working against strong headwinds, but even in these harsh condition ODL is ramping up.
    I wonder is a price boost would accelerate ODL adoption numbers?
  6. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Plikk in Swing trading   
    Yes I can't do swing trading because it feels like gambling, but it is true the gamblers have done really well in this bear market.  I have lowered and lowered my DCA, so I feel I have won too, just not as big as the people with bigger appetite for gambling.
  7. Like
    Julian_Williams reacted to Caracappa in Swing trading   
    During most part of the bearmarket majority of people kept expecting it to go up any time...
    Now after the big drop so many people say 'it will go down again - I sold to buy back in lower - 0,08 or 0,10 is the next target.'
    I would think this is the perfect setup to not come back down and let people buy back in at higher highs or higher lows, fueling the further growth.
    But it can also crash into oblivion and double your stack. Who knows.
  8. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Cesar1810 in Q1 2020 ODL report   
    Congratulations - very nice analytical work.
    Very much struck at how similar the patterns you are picking up are to the other ODL reporters - Tentoshi and "the utility scan".   It seems big drops in the value of XRP are followed by periods of flattening and slight dropping in ODL activity.  In other words setting up ODL in a bear market is like working against strong headwinds, but even in these harsh condition ODL is ramping up.
    I wonder is a price boost would accelerate ODL adoption numbers?
  9. Thanks
    Julian_Williams reacted to Dogowner5 in Q1 2020 ODL report   
    One thing that is slightly heartening for me is that on more than one occasion some biggish activity at Bitstamp in terms of ODL trans has corresponded (causation or just correlation?) with a slight upward movement of price that has NOT been reflected with a corresponding drop at the Bitso sale end.
    I’ve long considered that the arrow of time potentially might have a small impact on price from ODL.  Everyone talks about how it is zero sum because it’s symmetrical.  But it is NOT symmetrical because of the arrow of time.  The buy happens first.  This steps across the spread gap and sets the price slightly higher.  By the time of the sale,  assuming some market making informational flow between sites,  the expectation of the end point buyers might have been nudged upwards.
     
    A lot of assumptions and wobbly bits in there,   but in my happiest scenario,  the effect of high volume ODL might be a support and a continuous slight upward pressure/trend in price.  Nothing would make me happier than to find I’m right about that.  But only time will tell.
     
    EDIT:  That is of course not the only mechanism for price support...  volume begetting volume and volume begetting price, and utility value adding to desirability of ownership,  and ultimately a tightening of supply as large institutions hold stockpiles,  are the main ones.  But I feel there is a possible underlying bias in price trend upward if ODL volumes get large.  
  10. Thanks
    Julian_Williams reacted to jbjnr in Q1 2020 ODL report   
    If I change the cutoff to $5 then the quarterly totals look like
    $Totals % Change 2019-Q3 26.79 0.0 2019-Q4 185.48 592.3 2020-Q1 548.00 195.4 2020-Q2 58.04 -89.4 It's about $350k  difference in the 1st quarter and there are 10 instead of 9 corridors. Not a big difference, but still quite a lot of money - however, compared to the other totals, it's tiny. One reason I decided to exclude it is that the mean transfer size for these smaller channels tends to be smaller than the std-deviation. This tells me that they mostly transfer small stuff, but occasionally something big. It may be that during setup of a corridor, a bunch of big payments are made, then transfers begin using many small ones and that's what I'm seeing, but it just looks a bit fishy, so I decided to exclude them. I should perhaps include a short paragraph containing that explanation and make a note to look again at the individual payments on those (there are two, but one is a bit larger and I kept it) suspicious corridors (both bitstamp-> coins.ph btw).
     
  11. Haha
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from LetHerRip in Epic Pennant on BTC Chart   
    I think in recent publications BIS have been flagging Ripple/XRP as a creditable solution to the the digitalision of money and liquidity crisis.  I don't think they are anti XRP, but I am sure they are looking at a wide range of possibilities for the future of international banking
  12. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from WrathofKahneman in Q1 2020 ODL report   
    Congratulations - very nice analytical work.
    Very much struck at how similar the patterns you are picking up are to the other ODL reporters - Tentoshi and "the utility scan".   It seems big drops in the value of XRP are followed by periods of flattening and slight dropping in ODL activity.  In other words setting up ODL in a bear market is like working against strong headwinds, but even in these harsh condition ODL is ramping up.
    I wonder is a price boost would accelerate ODL adoption numbers?
  13. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from panmores in Q1 2020 ODL report   
    Congratulations - very nice analytical work.
    Very much struck at how similar the patterns you are picking up are to the other ODL reporters - Tentoshi and "the utility scan".   It seems big drops in the value of XRP are followed by periods of flattening and slight dropping in ODL activity.  In other words setting up ODL in a bear market is like working against strong headwinds, but even in these harsh condition ODL is ramping up.
    I wonder is a price boost would accelerate ODL adoption numbers?
  14. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from ZerpTidalWave in New Predication Game for 2020, Lets keep this tradition going guys   
    I agree the low numbers represent the infection of pessimism towards XRP.  But until it pumps it could go on going down and down, because there is nothing other than Speculation holding it up until utility hits. 
     
  15. Thanks
    Julian_Williams reacted to JASCoder in MGI, ODL, Bitso and a theory about the price   
    From what Tiny (who's gone now?!!) had shared with me in past exchanges, he said from his own research he found that the trade actions we see occurring at the ODL corridor endpoints are not driven directly by customer transfers, but the paid in fiat submissions are pooled and metered by Ripple's processes to be buy/transfer/sell payloads, handled in a roughly constant flow over a 24 hour period; this is to prevent out-running the arbitrage re-balancing dynamics between the endpoints and realize excessive friction we assume.
    Our best guess is that Ripple is maintaining their own fiat capital pools at the pay-out endpoints, which acts as a buffer - much like an electric capacitor does.
    The hourly volume metrics we see seem to bear this out - as you certainly would not expect remittance customers to maintain a 24 hour period of same sized transfers on weekdays.
    I hope I'm making sense. You can glean more details on this from our past posts here in this thread IIRC (tho his name will now show as "Guest").
    Cheers.
  16. Haha
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from LetHerRip in Will crypto rebound?   
    I agree that silver might be a better short term buy, but I will just hold my XRP and wait for the flywheel effect to hit the markets.  The energy is building and I have no idea when investors will notice that they have an opportunity to get into something very early.  I am personally confident that over time XRP will become the standard for ODL, and ODL is destined to be very big indeed.
     
  17. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Trisky in Will crypto rebound?   
    That is for every investor to make up their own mind about.  My DCA is .41, so it looks as if your side are right, but my view is that Ripple's position in the ODL market will be impossible for a newcomer to dislodge (they may compete).  for me I do not see huge risk in sitting still and waiting for the tide to lift me , but I understand my view is a very minority view.
  18. Like
    Julian_Williams reacted to Trisky in Will crypto rebound?   
    Figures.
    Will there be a price correction in the rate coming because the scarcity at the moment? 
    Thank for the info. Appreciate it.
    In any other situation I would have done the same. My interest came from having valuables to trade and prepare besides a lucrative/risky investment like XRP.
    And if you don't spread any risk, isn't that a bit foolish if I may ask?
  19. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Trisky in Will crypto rebound?   
    I agree that silver might be a better short term buy, but I will just hold my XRP and wait for the flywheel effect to hit the markets.  The energy is building and I have no idea when investors will notice that they have an opportunity to get into something very early.  I am personally confident that over time XRP will become the standard for ODL, and ODL is destined to be very big indeed.
     
  20. Thanks
    Julian_Williams reacted to Dogowner5 in Will crypto rebound?   
    There is a difference here...  they are not ‘adopting’ it, they are merely using it as the bridge.  They still have their own currency...  they didn’t adopt anything.
  21. Like
    Julian_Williams reacted to JA8 in Will crypto rebound?   
    In my opinion, crypto in general will probably see a safe haven bid. Particularly as the legacy financial system falls apart quite thoroughly over coming weeks and years.  Hedges in this respect have historically been the dollar, bonds and gold/silver. Let's take a look at the dollar (six month DXY chart):
     
    As we can see, the USD has been pumping quite a bit. Precious metals have relatively underperformed and will probably keep underperforming until the USD begins to look top-ish. This could be unfolding right now... note the correction in USD above which is probably worth keeping an eye on.

    A parallel for the USD may be BTC's blow-off top in 2017. As it started to look bloated, people started speculating more in other coins. Once BTC began plummeting in earnest, everyone rushed to the exits - and this is when we saw XRP launch like a rocket.
    Similarly, I expect gold and silver to start showing more strength as the USD begins: a) showing weakness; or b) starts looking like a bubble.

    A major crisis like this has never happened before in BTC's lifetime, so one cannot be absolutely certain that BTC will perform well. However, as an "escape route" from fiat currency and from the legacy financial system, it does have a sound argument. As digital gold, it is arguably better than real gold: it is more portable and more divisible, and importantly - it bears no counter-party risk. In 1971 Nixon confiscated gold. It's hard to see that happening with Bitcoin unless they shut down the internet.
    Whilst XRP does not have the same characteristics as BTC, if the rush into BTC happens - as seems likely to me - then the wider crypto market will probably receive some speculative overflow bids.

    Personally, I've lightened up on XRP (I already owned a fair amount) in order to buy more gold and silver. I think there's a pretty good chance that silver in particular will outperform crypto. I've also lightened up on bank deposits as I don't trust the banks to remain solvent either ($10trn global reserves, $300trn+ global debt, $1.2qdrn in derivatives). I'm telling everyone at the moment to at least consider the risks of bank defaults. Better safe than sorry.

    I expect more deflation to come in the short to medium term, and the corresponding scramble for cash to affect all asset classes including safe havens. As investors in crypto, what we're looking for is the later inflationary effects - or the threat of inflation - to kick in.

    Good luck all.
  22. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from JA8 in Will crypto rebound?   
    It seems to me that massive unlimited QE will devalue the dollar's position as a reserve currency, not enhance it.   To trade in digital dollars you still have to buy the digital dollars with pounds, yen, Euros or whatever.  For that you need some sort of bridging asset. 
    Do you really think the EU will make digital dollars into the national currency of the EU?   No country will give up their national currencies to adopt the digital dollar.
  23. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Trisky in Japanese: China May Foreshadow Digital Currency Breakthrough   
    As I understand it a hub is developing between the Bank of Singapore and the rest of SE Asia; Vietnam, Thailand, Japan (SBI), Korea and the Philippines.  Crypto Eri often mentions these developments in her dispatches.  ODL was supposed to be launched in the first quarter, but they seem to have missed that target.
  24. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Dogowner5 in Will crypto rebound?   
    It seems to me that massive unlimited QE will devalue the dollar's position as a reserve currency, not enhance it.   To trade in digital dollars you still have to buy the digital dollars with pounds, yen, Euros or whatever.  For that you need some sort of bridging asset. 
    Do you really think the EU will make digital dollars into the national currency of the EU?   No country will give up their national currencies to adopt the digital dollar.
  25. Like
    Julian_Williams got a reaction from Pixelboy in Now the ManeyTap is connected to LINE PAY and PAYPAY using Ripple technology.   
    On an Italian Facebook site I was on yesterday I saw Xoom adverts.  Apparently they got 4,000 registrations in the first 12 hours
    As @PlanK intimates the fees might be wavered for accepting adverts - and there are other services to make money out of.  I can certainly see a company like Amazon wavering transaction fees in exchange for international business.
    Mobile phones started off much more expensive than landlines, now we have services like whatap and Skype for free, and VOIP phones.  Digital payments will be much cheaper than Analogue payments and they will have added features like  data rich attachments etc.
×
×
  • Create New...