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Spekul8

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About Spekul8

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    Letting the dog out three times a day.
  1. Those who understand the markets, and respect it believe in this phrase. Those who are not, think they can outsmart the market. Many think this phrase is just built on the mark to market P&L, but it also reflects the state of price in lieu of all new information.
  2. I enjoy debates. It makes me question my way of thinking and allows room for growth. In fact, outside of Crypto I always come across opinions that are contrary to mine, and its 100% fine with me. But, I learned to distinguish between "drama", those who puke news articles written by amateurs and those who have facts that are not considered by the public. Above all, price talks to me most. It's the final judge.
  3. This has been the theme from day one. It's never bad. "It's Always Sunny in Ripple" ...even my simple post here which neither positive or negative has been interpreted by one as fear spreading. It's nonsense. I am a bit advocate of this technology, but most here invested their net-worth, large chunk of it, and have a confirmation bias issues.
  4. You welcome. I can not speculate who will crumble, and who will not, but I suspect its those who were not fiscally responsible, not necessarily KYC. In the process of corrections, retails and institutional get hurt alike. There are miners that are going out of business, and established companies like Consys (Ethereum Based) who are Ethereum based just fired 13% of its staff. In the long run, this is good for this space. This will bring order, and established companies that will make Crypto and Blockchain valuable. Your reference to maturity is spot on. Yes, this may take years. Like I said a while back, we are getting into the "blue chip" era, less "pump and dump". This means stability and no surges of 5,000% with correction approaching bottom. Nevertheless, ONE announcement from SEC about an ETF will 300% this market in a minute.
  5. There are inaccuracies and different opinions which sadly you do not know how to distinguish or respect. Everything you said above is a reflection of your own psychology because you are ALL IN like a gambler. So every time there is a contrary opinion, you freak out with long rambles. Talking about inaccuracies...I replied to your first post on this thread.
  6. Every time you see a post from me you get your balls in a knot. no need. NOT every seller has a buyer. This is because prices can drop or gap down on panic, bad news, desperation, etc. If your neighbor decides that he must sell the house for 60% of its value, assuming you have a similar house, your house's value just dropped without a buyer. Kapish? The same thing happens on the upside. Exchnages work on the same premise as above, and although deep liquidity helps, prices do gap. Second, 50% of the market is OTC? No! 100% of the market is OTC. Just because they call themselves "exchange" it does not mean they have the same model as NYSE, NASDAQ or the CME. There is no central exchange for Bitcoin and even worse each exchange functions as its own market maker and custodian. Lastly, stop boasting that you made money in Jan. It became your signature every time you reply to me. You made a fraction of what the market moved. Don't confuse a genius with a bull market. BTW, I made more.
  7. Where is the volatility? It's a straight down arrow.
  8. The recent price decline is a big disappointment to many. If some of you gave up or lost interest, I do not blame you. A few months back I wrote that we are going to experience a serious decline, and here we are now. You may ask why is this happening and whether we could see new highs in the future. Anything can happen, but I have learned to use the odds and I do not see the Crypto space growing exponentially. So first, why is the decline? There are two answers. One is the ability of the market to question the "super enthusiastic" who are now scratching their head and ask "why me?" Slowly and surely they are selling one by one. Not blaming them, accusing them or judging them. The market has the ability to attract the weak hands with FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices are going through the roof, and spit them out or just leave them broke with a flat line. So the market is still cleaning them out and there are millions of users worldwide. The second is the change in psychology and phase. The psychology moved from "the world must run on Blockchain/crypto" to "we are in the .01% phase". This means that the foundation is being built, but the revenue model is vague at best. How do you evaluate the value of crypto besides speculation? There are no models and the models that do exist are speculative. The third reason is the new blockchain companies who created their own ICO and raised money with ETH/BTC need to sell it all to keep their doors open. Back to school boys. Get your BA/MBA. The fear I have now is the collapse of exchnages. Not too many are buying, selling, or trading at these prices. These institutions are fully staffed, have a high cost of operation and need millions per month to keep the lights on. All we need is just one big news event and the market will collapse further. I hope that does not happen, but its inevitable in this environment.
  9. People can not predict euphoria or how low prices can dip. But very high prices (big profits) or meager prices (losses) can "paralyze" people to indecision. It takes way above average discipline to take profits, and at the same times to cut losses to prevent further losses. Most cannot and will not make money even in the biggest bull markets in the world. So to those who say they rather lose than take a small profit is precisely why they will lose. Since you have students loans, I assume you are young. You should not be playing Crypro. You should be investing in companies that have a positive cash flow. Talent is talent. They will go through many fluctuations as well, but in 20-30 years, you will look back and see that you made the right move. Ripple is a startup. An experiment. The lower it goes the harder it would be to recover. As to your question, why I think it will go lower. First, you must remember that the price of over $3 bucks was an anomaly. You can not treat it as a number. It could have been5 or even 20 during that Feb period. What I am trying to say that we have no reference as to what XRP should be. When there is no explicit reference system, prices sink. Second, XRP demise is not because of Ripple as a company. It is because all coins are tied up in the exchnages algorithmically, and 90% have to go. They are worthless. This will crush even the legitimate ones. Third, it is becoming clear that any specific blockchain technology can succeed without its coin. Ethreun can do well without ETH, and Ripple can rock with XRP staying as is. You are fortunate you learning this while you are young. This is a lesson that speculation is not the way to riches. Stay in schools, cover your debt, then your mortgage and you will be ahead 90% of the people. Spend your time well. Don't spend it all here! Stay in schools and get the Audible app. I wish I would listen to books on the way to schools when I was younger. Listen to sales books....over and over. After many years of being in business, I still read at least one book a week. I listen to sales, marketing, and interpersonal relationships. These kills enabled me to have checks in my hands that I never thought I would hold. XRP is a come in your book of life, and It's meaningless. Lastly, let's assume that XRP will be 100 tomorrow. All 5,000 members will become millionaires overnight. The statistics say 4,850 will become even less fortunate than they were before they made money. It takes maturity, IQ, and discipline to hold on to cash. When I was in school, I lost 10K on a penny stock. One smart man told me what I am telling you today. I am just paying forward. Your loss now is your biggest gain because it will keep your priorities straight. One day you will trade like a pro. It will happen when you will have money coming from so many sources you will not care whether you win or lose. Wishing you well. Spek
  10. I should have added "buy, buy and never sell" and it's not hindsight. Every time there was a price correction and people "commented "I can buy more" I was commenting that they should not add money to losing positions because I was suspecting we will have a correction of unseen magnitude. This is all because of the euphoric/unrealistic and views here...not to mention the part where people mention they are glued to their phones for quotes/ Spare me the "high statistical probability" and labelling it with time. This has been everyone excuse here. 1 year, 2 year or ten year. we are heading to a correction that most here would get a mental breakdown from. People who are looking at this for first time and consider buying it should ONLY buy it if it breaks 1.00. They should not try and pick a bottom. No Lambo. No Moon. 36,000% you take it. seal it...and NEVER look at this asset again.
  11. I am sorry that your idea of "class" is comforting someone like a support group without substance. This forum has been one long sales pitch of buy buy buy and "to the moon" for years now. This investing mentality is misleading, and in the end, leads to a simple guy putting 40% of his savings to XRP. This is destructive. I agree with you that many are in this boat, but the last thing you should do is comfort them because they may have a chance one day to bail out at B/E or higher, and then they should consider what that means in the real world of their finances. XRP hyper-bullish mentality led many here down the wrong path and will continue be so until you or anyone else understands that you need to have a strategy, not hope. On a personal note, if I had a chance to impact that guy, that would be great. Maybe in the future, if he encounters more opportunities, he will meet more people like me who tell can tell him that 2000% return is once in a lifetime. ONCE IN A LIFETIME!
  12. Let me give you my Poll: You win the Greed Monster of a lifetime. You were able to cover the mortgage and you did not? People work 30 years to cover mortgages, and if you add the interest rates charges, the average person pays 5X of the value of the loan. So by not taking the profit, you have skipped 5X of the current value of the mortgage. You didn't even sell a little bit? What did you come here for? Get sympathy from a bunch of "holdlers" that are underwater like you? Be responsible and sell some and bring it home. You have a Kid! You make choices for everyone now.
  13. I don't put a value on people's money. If someone has lost his retirement, a portion of his retirement..to them its a lot. $100 to someone here is a make or break. You are right, YOLO. Therefore, sometimes you have to say "maybe I am wrong!?...let me step outside". HODL is a term that will go down in history for the crypto speculators. Its a term of hope, not strategy. It makes people look 50 times a day at their quotes, attaches their emotions to the market and paralyzes them from moving forward. You have many stars to your name, and I assume you spent plenty of time on this posts to build your reputation. HODL is not what you should tell people to do. What you should say to them is "cut your losses and get a second job!" If someone had six pots here, he or she came in and said HODL. Where were you different as a forum leader? What new perspective did you add? You have a role here as a Gold leader. Set the newcomers straight! It took me quite a lot courage to stand up to very reputable guys here and go against the grain. A recap: I said not to add money to losing positions for months now, XRP is just as good as BTC, Ripple and XRP are detached, There are no whales (the exchnages are the whales), advanced technology is not readily adaptable by conservative institutions, and growth if XRP will no longer be exponential. I said it because of a firm conviction, and I genuinely don't give two s***ts if I would have been wrong. I am not afraid to be wrong. If I helped someone from throwing good money after bad money, I did well by them. If you wonder what will happen next, let me share with you. Ripple will make a sick number of partners, and it will not be reflected in the price of XRP. In fact, the correlation will be under 1%. The ONLY thing that will save XRP, and for that matter, any other Crypto is the SEC. Retail flow is dead. Whatever Retail could put in, will not move the market an inch. You can agree or disagree, but I assure that you that I did not come to this conclusions randomly. I am going to take a little bit of a break from XRPChat. If you recall, I left for a period of a few months before we hit ATH. The ability to think objectively has helped me to capitalize on this move in a big way. I left because I felt that writing and too many discussions clouded my judgment. I think the same way now. However, I also decided to write a book bout cash management for Crypto holders. Maybe it will help the next gen of crypto traders. Besides that, I am getting into a new venture with a childhood friend, and I always commit myself 110% to whom I do business with. As a final note, I hope I am wrong about the price of XRP. Not like slightly wrong, but dead wrong and we will have a V-shaped Nasa type launch reversal on XRP. I wish to be so crazy wrong that you will laugh at me in Vegas at the $10 XRP party. The Drinks will be on me Brother! Until then, take care, be well and good luck in everything. Spek
  14. Everything is relative. You are big until you swollen. Ju'sain.
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